Past, present and future precipitation in the Middle East: insights from models and observations

Anthropogenic changes in precipitation pose a serious threat to society—particularly in regions such as the Middle East that already face serious water shortages. However, climate model projections of regional precipitation remain highly uncertain. Moreover, standard resolution climate models have particular difficulty representing precipitation in the Middle East, which is modulated by complex topography, inland water bodies and proximity to the Mediterranean Sea. Here we compare precipitation changes over the twenty-first century against both millennial variability during the Holocene and interannual variability in the present day. In order to assess the climate model and to make consistent comparisons, this study uses new regional climate model simulations of the past, present and future in conjunction with proxy and historical observations. We show that the pattern of precipitation change within Europe and the Middle East projected by the end of the twenty-first century has some similarities to that which occurred during the Holocene. In both cases, a poleward shift of the North Atlantic storm track and a weakening of the Mediterranean storm track appear to cause decreased winter rainfall in southern Europe and the Middle East and increased rainfall further north. In contrast, on an interannual time scale, anomalously dry seasons in the Middle East are associated with a strengthening and focusing of the storm track in the north Mediterranean and hence wet conditions throughout southern Europe.

The formation mechanism of the Bonin high in August

The Bonin high is a subtropical anticyclone that is predominant near Japan in the summer. This anticyclone is associated with an equivalent-barotropic structure, often extending throughout the entire troposphere. Although the equivalent-barotropic structure of the Bonin high has been known for years among synopticians because of its importance to the summer climate in east Asia, there are few dynamical explanations for such a structure. The present paper attempts to provide a formation mechanism for the deep ridge near Japan. We propose a new hypothesis that this equivalent-barotropic ridge near Japan is formed as a result of the propagation of stationary Rossby waves along the Asian jet in the upper troposphere (‘the Silk Road pattern’). First, the monthly mean climatology is examined in order to demonstrate this hypothesis. It is shown that the enhanced Asian jet in August is favourable for the propagation of stationary Rossby waves and that the regions of descent over the eastern Mediterranean Sea and the Aral Sea act as two major wave sources. Second, a primitive-equation model is used to simulate the climatology of August. The model successfully simulates the Bonin high with an equivalent-barotropic structure. The upper-tropospheric ridge is found to be enhanced by a height anomaly of more than 80 m at 200 hPa, when a wave packet arrives. Sensitivity experiments are conducted to show that the removal of the diabatic cooling over the Asian jet suppresses the Silk Road pattern and formation of an equivalent-barotropic ridge near Japan, while the removal of the diabatic heating in the western Pacific does not. Copyright © 2003 Royal Meteorological Society

Using the significant dust deposition event on the glaciers of Mt. Elbrus, Caucasus Mountains, Russia on 5 May 2009 to develop a method for dating and "provenancing" of desert dust events recorded in snow pack

A significant desert dust deposition event occurred on Mt. Elbrus, Caucasus Mountains, Russia on 5 May 2009, where the deposited dust later appeared as a brown layer in the snow pack. An examination of dust transportation history and analysis of chemical and physical properties of the deposited dust were used to develop a new approach for high-resolution “provenancing” of dust deposition events recorded in snow pack using multiple independent techniques. A combination of SEVIRI red-green-blue composite imagery, MODIS atmospheric optical depth fields derived using the Deep Blue algorithm, air mass trajectories derived with HYSPLIT model and analysis of meteorological data enabled identification of dust source regions with high temporal (hours) and spatial (ca. 100 km) resolution. Dust, deposited on 5 May 2009, originated in the foothills of the Djebel Akhdar in eastern Libya where dust sources were activated by the intrusion of cold air from the Mediterranean Sea and Saharan low pressure system and transported to the Caucasus along the eastern Mediterranean coast, Syria and Turkey. Particles with an average diameter below 8 μm accounted for 90% of the measured particles in the sample with a mean of 3.58 μm, median 2.48 μm. The chemical signature of this long-travelled dust was significantly different from the locally-produced dust and close to that of soils collected in a palaeolake in the source region, in concentrations of hematite. Potential addition of dust from a secondary source in northern Mesopotamia introduced uncertainty in the “provenancing” of dust from this event. Nevertheless, the approach adopted here enables other dust horizons in the snowpack to be linked to specific dust transport events recorded in remote sensing and meteorological data archives.

Using the significant dust deposition event on the glaciers of Mt. Elbrus, Caucasus Mountains, Russia on 5 May 2009 to develop a method for dating and provenancing of desert dust events recorded in snow pack.

A significant desert dust deposition event occurred on Mt. Elbrus, Caucasus Mountains, Russia on 5 May 2009, where the deposited dust later appeared as a brown layer in the snow pack. An examination of dust transportation history and analysis of chemical and physical properties of the deposited dust were used to develop a new approach for high-resolution provenancing of dust deposition events recorded in snow pack using multiple independent techniques. A combination of SEVIRI red-green-blue composite imagery, MODIS atmospheric optical depth fields derived using the Deep Blue algorithm, air mass trajectories derived with HYSPLIT model and analysis of meteorological data enabled identification of dust source regions with high temporal (hours) and spatial (ca. 100 km) resolution. Dust, deposited on 5 May 2009, originated in the foothills of the Djebel Akhdar in eastern Libya where dust sources were activated by the intrusion of cold air from the Mediterranean Sea and Saharan low pressure system and transported to the Caucasus along the eastern Mediterranean coast, Syria and Turkey. Particles with an average diameter below 8 μm accounted for 90% of the measured particles in the sample with a mean of 3.58 μm, median 2.48 μm and the dominant mode of 0.60 μm. The chemical signature of this long-travelled dust was significantly different from the locally-produced dust and close to that of soils collected in a palaeolake in the source region, in concentrations of hematite and oxides of aluminium, manganese, and magnesium. Potential addition of dust from a secondary source in northern Mesopotamia introduced uncertainty in the provenancing of dust from this event. Nevertheless, the approach adopted here enables other dust horizons in the snowpack to be linked to specific dust transport events recorded in remote sensing and meteorological data archives.

Evaluation of moisture sources for the Central European summer flood of May/June 2013 based on regional climate model simulations

Heavy precipitation affected Central Europe in May/June 2013, triggering damaging floods both on the Danube and the Elbe rivers. Based on a modelling approach with COSMO-CLM, moisture fluxes, backward trajectories, cyclone tracks and precipitation fields are evaluated for the relevant time period 30 May–2 June 2013. We identify potential moisture sources and quantify their contribution to the flood event focusing on the Danube basin through sensitivity experiments: Control simulations are performed with undisturbed ERA-Interim boundary conditions, while multiple sensitivity experiments are driven with modified evaporation characteristics over selected marine and land areas. Two relevant cyclones are identified both in reanalysis and in our simulations, which moved counter-clockwise in a retrograde path from Southeastern Europe over Eastern Europe towards the northern slopes of the Alps. The control simulations represent the synoptic evolution of the event reasonably well. The evolution of the precipitation event in the control simulations shows some differences in terms of its spatial and temporal characteristics compared to observations. The main precipitation event can be separated into two phases concerning the moisture sources. Our modelling results provide evidence that the two main sources contributing to the event were the continental evapotranspiration (moisture recycling; both phases) and the North Atlantic Ocean (first phase only). The Mediterranean Sea played only a minor role as a moisture source. This study confirms the importance of continental moisture recycling for heavy precipitation events over Central Europe during the summer half year.

Comparative Internal Structure of Dorsal Lips and Radiolar Appendages in Sabellidae (Polychaeta) and Phylogenetic Implications

Fan worms (Sabellidae) possess paired modified prostomial structures at the base of the radiolar crown, dorso-lateral to the mouth, called dorsal lips. The dorsal lips are involved in the sorting of particles collected by the radiolar crown. The range of variation in the morphology of dorsal lips is extensive, and probably this is not only due to adaptations to different environments and feeding preferences but also due to phylogenetic constraints. In this study, we describe and compare the morphology of dorsal lips in a range of sabellid taxa based on histological cross-sections of these structures, and compare our data and terminology with those of previous studies. Dorsal lips are maintained erect in most taxa by a modified radiole fused to them known as dorsal radiolar appendage. We suggest that dorsal radiolar appendages with an internal supporting axis (cellular or acellular) and probably also the ventral lips are synapomorphies of the family. J. Morphol. 272: 302-319, 2011. (C) 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

New and little-known cheilostomatous Bryozoa from the south and southeastern Brazilian continental shelf and slope

The present paper reports on 22 species collected by the Brazilian Program of Living Resources in the Exclusive Economic Zone (REVIZEE). A new genus and species of Cribrilinidae, Corbuliporina crepida n. gen. et sp., is described, along with seventeen other new species: Chaperia brasiliensis n. sp., Amastigia aviculifera n. sp., Isosecuriflustra pinniformis n. sp., Cellaria subtropicalis n. sp., Melicerita brasiliensis n. sp., Arachnopusia haywardi n. sp., Smittina migottoi n. sp., Hippomenella amaralae n. sp., Rogicka joannae n. sp., Malakosaria atlantica n. sp., Turbicellepora winstonae n. sp., Rhynchozoon coalitum n. sp., Stephanollona angusta n. sp., Stephanollona arborescens n. sp., Aulopocella americana n. sp., Conescharellina cookae n. sp. and Conescharellina bocki n. sp. Chorizopora brongniartii (Audouin, 1826) is recorded for the first time in Brazilian waters and a new combination for Rhynchozoon arborescens Canu & Bassler, 1928 is established. New illustrations and taxonomic remarks are included for two little-known species from Brazil, Rogicka scopae (Canu & Bassler, 1928) and Fenestrulina ampla Canu & Bassler, 1928. A compilation of species recorded from deeper waters of the Brazilian coast is included.

Nd and Pb isotope signatures on the Southeastern South American upper margin: Implications for sediment transport and source rocks

Neodymium and lead isotope values in sediment samples were used to interpret sediment transport and source rocks on the Southeastern South American upper margin. The sediments of the Argentinian margin exhibit an average epsilon(Nd) value of -1.9, indicating the influence of the Andean rocks as sediment sources. Sediments from the Rio de La Plata estuary show an average epsilon(Nd) value of -9.6 which is similar to that of the Southern Brazilian Upper Margin. Finally, sediments of Southeastern Brazil, which are associated with the transport of the Brazil Current exhibit an average epsilon(Nd) of -13.0. The Pb isotope signatures also confirm the differentiation of source rocks in the sedimentation of the study area. In addition, Pb isotopes helped to establish the extent of the influence of the Rio de La Plata on the sedimentation of the Southern Brazilian margin. In terms of Pb isotopes the sediments from the Rio de La Plata estuary and Southern Brazil are more radiogenic than those of Southeastem Brazil and the Argentinian margin. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An evaluation of ocean color model estimates of marine primary productivity in coastal and pelagic regions across the globe

Nearly half of the earth's photosynthetically fixed carbon derives from the oceans. To determine global and region specific rates, we rely on models that estimate marine net primary productivity (NPP) thus it is essential that these models are evaluated to determine their accuracy. Here we assessed the skill of 21 ocean color models by comparing their estimates of depth-integrated NPP to 1156 in situ C-14 measurements encompassing ten marine regions including the Sargasso Sea, pelagic North Atlantic, coastal Northeast Atlantic, Black Sea, Mediterranean Sea, Arabian Sea, subtropical North Pacific, Ross Sea, West Antarctic Peninsula, and the Antarctic Polar Frontal Zone. Average model skill, as determined by root-mean square difference calculations, was lowest in the Black and Mediterranean Seas, highest in the pelagic North Atlantic and the Antarctic Polar Frontal Zone, and intermediate in the other six regions. The maximum fraction of model skill that may be attributable to uncertainties in both the input variables and in situ NPP measurements was nearly 72%. on average, the simplest depth/wavelength integrated models performed no worse than the more complex depth/wavelength resolved models. Ocean color models were not highly challenged in extreme conditions of surface chlorophyll-a and sea surface temperature, nor in high-nitrate low-chlorophyll waters. Water column depth was the primary influence on ocean color model performance such that average skill was significantly higher at depths greater than 250 m, suggesting that ocean color models are more challenged in Case-2 waters (coastal) than in Case-1 (pelagic) waters. Given that in situ chlorophyll-a data was used as input data, algorithm improvement is required to eliminate the poor performance of ocean color NPP models in Case-2 waters that are close to coastlines. Finally, ocean color chlorophyll-a algorithms are challenged by optically complex Case-2 waters, thus using satellite-derived chlorophyll-a to estimate NPP in coastal areas would likely further reduce the skill of ocean color models.

Spatial distribution of the daily precipitation concentration index in Algeria

In this paper, the spatial and temporal distribution of the daily precipitation concentration index (CI) in Algeria (south Mediterranean Sea) has been assessed. CI is an index related to the rainfall intensity and erosive capacity; therefore, this index is of great interest for studies on torrential rainfall and floods. Forty-two daily rainfall series based on high-quality and fairly regular rainfall records for the period from 1970 to 2008 were used. The daily precipitation CI results allowed the identification of three climate zones: the northern country, characterized by coastal regions with CI values between 0.59 and 0.63; the highlands, with values between 0.57 and 0.62, except for the region of Biskra (CI = 0.70); and the southern region of the country, with high rainfall concentrations with values between 0.62 and 0.69.

Evidence for genetic differentiation of Octopus vulgaris (Mollusca, Cephalopoda) fishery populations from the southern coast of Brazil as revealed by microsatellites

Octopus vulgaris is a cephalopod species in several oceans and commonly caught by artisanal and industrial fisheries. In Brazil, O. vulgaris populations are mainly distributed along the southern coast and have been subjected to intensive fishing during recent years. Despite the importance of this marine resource, no genetic study has been carried out to examine genetic differences among populations along the coast of Brazil. In this study, 343 individuals collected by commercial vessels were genotyped at six microsatellite loci to investigate the genetic differences in O. vulgaris populations along the southern coast of Brazil. Genetic structure and levels of differentiation among sampling sites were estimated via a genotype assignment test and F-statistics. Our results indicate that the O. vulgaris stock consists of four genetic populations with an overall significant analogous F(ST). (phi(CT) = 0.10710, P<0.05) value. The genetic diversity was high with an observed heterozygosity of Ho = 0.987. The negative values of F(IS) found for most of the loci examined suggested a possible bottleneck process. These findings are important for further steps toward more sustainable octopus fisheries, so that this marine resource can be preserved for long-term utilization. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Petrogenesis of Cenozoic volcanic rocks in the NW sector of the Gharyan volcanic field, Libya

The north-western sector of the Gharyan volcanic field (northern Libya) consists of trachytic-phonolitic domes emplaced between similar to 41 and 38 Ma, and small-volume mafic alkaline volcanic centres (basanites, tephrites. alkali basalts. hawaiites and rare benmoreites) of Middle Miocene-Pliocene age (similar to 12-2 Ma). Two types of trachytes and phonolites have been recognized on the basis of petrography, mineralogy and geochemistry. Type-1 trachytes and phonolites display a smooth spoon-shaped REE pattern without negative Europium anomalies. Type-2 trachytes and phonolites show a remarkable Eu negative anomaly, higher concentration in HFSE (Nb-Ta-Zr-Hf), REE and Ti than Type-1 rocks. The origin of Type-1 trachytes and phonolites is compatible with removal of clinopyroxene, plagioclase, alkali feldspar, amphibole. magnetite and titanite starting from benmoreitic magmas. found in the same outcrops. Type-2 trachytes and phonolites could be the result of extensive fractional crystallization starting from mafic alkaline magma, without removal of titanite. In primitive mantle-normalized diagrams, the mafic rocks (Mg#= 62-68, Cr up to 514 ppm, Ni up to 425 ppm) show peaks at Nb and Ta and troughs at K. These characteristics, coupled with low Sr-87/Sr-86(i) (0.7033-0.7038) and positive epsilon(Nd) (from +4.2 to + 5.3) features typical of the mafic anorogenic magmas of the northern African plate and of HIMU-OIB-like magma in general. The origin of the mafic rocks is compatible from a derivation from low degree partial melting (3-9%) shallow mantle sources in the spinel/gamet facies. placed just below the rigid plate in the uppermost low-velocity zone. The origin of the igneous activity is considered linked to passive lithospheric thinning related to the development of continental rifts like those of Sicily Channel (e.g.. Pantelleria and Linosa) and Sardinia (e.g., Campidano Graben) in the Central-Western Mediterranean Sea. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Morphological and molecular evidences within Osmundea (Ceramiales, Rhodophyta) from the Canary Islands, eastern Atlantic Ocean

The genus Osmundea is a strongly supported monophyletic group within the Laurencia complex and shows a disjunct distribution occurring in the North-East and South-West Pacific, the Indian and Atlantic oceans and the Mediterranean Sea. Its phenotypic plasticity on the Canary Islands may be the result of the high ecological variability partially due to the particular oceanographic characteristics in this region. The combination of molecular analyses based on the comparison of the chloroplast-encoded rbcL sequences and morphological data allowed us to delimit three distinct taxa from the coasts of the Canarian Archipelago: Osmundea pinnatifida, Osmundea truncata and an unidentified species, Osmundea sp. Moreover, the high value of genetic divergence between Osmundea sp. and the rest of the Osmundea species suggests that this taxon should be assigned to a new species within the Osmundea genus. Occurrence of O. hybrida and O. oederi (synonym: O. ramosissima) has not been confirmed. Our results also suggest a possibly questionable record of the taxa O. hybrida and O. oederi on the Canary Islands.

Spatial-temporal variations in phytoplankton size and colored detrital matter absorption at global and regional scales, as derived from twelve years of SeaWiFS data (1998-2009)

A procedure has been proposed by Ciotti and Bricaud (2006) to retrieve spectral absorption coefficients of phytoplankton and colored detrital matter (CDM) from satellite radiance measurements. This was also the first procedure to estimate a size factor for phytoplankton, based on the shape of the retrieved algal absorption spectrum, and the spectral slope of CDM absorption. Applying this method to the global ocean color data set acquired by SeaWiFS over twelve years (1998-2009), allowed for a comparison of the spatial variations of chlorophyll concentration ([Chl]), algal size factor (S-f), CDM absorption coefficient (a(cdm)) at 443 nm, and spectral slope of CDM absorption (S-cdm). As expected, correlations between the derived parameters were characterized by a large scatter at the global scale. We compared temporal variability of the spatially averaged parameters over the twelve-year period for three oceanic areas of biogeochemical importance: the Eastern Equatorial Pacific, the North Atlantic and the Mediterranean Sea. In all areas, both S-f and a(cdm)(443) showed large seasonal and interannual variations, generally correlated to those of algal biomass. The CDM maxima appeared in some occasions to last longer than those of [Chl]. The spectral slope of CDM absorption showed very large seasonal cycles consistent with photobleaching, challenging the assumption of a constant slope commonly used in bio-optical models. In the Equatorial Pacific, the seasonal cycles of [Chl], S-f, a(cdm)(443) and S-cdm, as well as the relationships between these parameters, were strongly affected by the 1997-98 El Ni o/La Ni a event.

Genetic divergence of tanaidaceans (Crustacea: Peracarida) with low dispersal ability

[EN] In this study, the phylogeographic patterns of nuclear, ribosomal and mtDNA gene fragments of five tanaidacean species (Zeuxo, Tanaidae) from the Atlantic, Pacific and Mediterranean Sea were investigated.