A practical comparison of blinded methods for sample size reviews in survival data clinical trials.

This paper presents practical approaches to the problem of sample size re-estimation in the case of clinical trials with survival data when proportional hazards can be assumed. When data are readily available at the time of the review, on a full range of survival experiences across the recruited patients, it is shown that, as expected, performing a blinded re-estimation procedure is straightforward and can help to maintain the trial's pre-specified error rates. Two alternative methods for dealing with the situation where limited survival experiences are available at the time of the sample size review are then presented and compared. In this instance, extrapolation is required in order to undertake the sample size re-estimation. Worked examples, together with results from a simulation study are described. It is concluded that, as in the standard case, use of either extrapolation approach successfully protects the trial error rates. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Chitosan coated alginate beads for the survival of microencapsulated Lactobacillus plantarum in pomegranate juice

This work studied the effect of multi-layer coating of alginate beads on the survival of encapsulated Lactobacillus plantarum in simulated gastric solution and during storage in pomegranate juice at 4 °C. Uncoated, single and double chitosan coated beads were examined. The survival of the cells in simulated gastric solution (pH 1.5) was improved in the case of the chitosan coated beads by 0.5–2 logs compared to the uncoated beads. The cell concentration in pomegranate juice after six weeks of storage was higher than 5.5 log CFU/mL for single and double coated beads, whereas for free cells and uncoated beads the cells died after 4 weeks of storage. In simulated gastric solution, the size of the beads decreased and their hardness increased with time; however, the opposite trend was observed for pomegranate juice, indicating that there is no correlation between cell survival and the hardness of the beads.

Survival of freeze dried Lactobacillus plantarum in instant fruit powders and reconstituted fruit juices

The aim of this study was to investigate the survival of freeze dried Lactobacillus plantarum cells mixed with several freeze dried instant fruit powders (strawberry, pomegranate, blackcurrant and cranberry) during storage for 12 months as well as after reconstitution with water each month. Inulin and gum arabic were also added to the instant fruit powders at two levels (10% and 20% w/w of dry weight) to improve the cell survival and functional properties of the product. The best cell survival over the 12 months of storage was observed for the blackcurrant powder (almost no decrease) followed by strawberry (~ 0.3 log decrease), pomegranate (~ 0.9 log decrease), whereas the worst survival was obtained in cranberry powder (~ 4.5 logs). To explain these results multiple regression analysis was conducted with the log decrease [log10N0 month − log10N12 months] as the dependent variable and water activity, pH, citric acid, dietary fibre and total phenol as the independent variables. The results indicated that among all the examined factors, the [log10N0 month − log10N12 months] depended only on the water activity (P < 0.05). Inulin and gum arabic demonstrated a substantial protective effect on cell survival (1–1.5 log) in the case of cranberry, which was likely due to a physical interaction between the cells and the carbohydrates. After reconstituting the dried fruit powders at room temperature and measuring cell viability for up to 4 h, it was shown that in the case of strawberry juice there was no decrease, and very little in the case of pomegranate and blackcurrant juices (< 0.5 log). On the other hand, a significant decrease was observed for cranberry juice (P < 0.05), which increased as the storage time of the dried cranberry powder increased, indicating that the cells became more susceptible with prolonged storage. Multiple regression analysis indicated that the main factors influencing cell survival were water activity and pH, while citric acid, dietary fibre and total phenol did not have an effect. Furthermore, inulin and gum arabic addition did not have a significant (P > 0.05) effect upon reconstitution of the dried fruit powder. This study showed that instant juice powders are very good carriers of probiotic cells and constitute good alternatives to highly acidic fruit juices.

Competition and product survival in the UK car market

The paper examines the extent to which inter- and intra-firm competition influenced the survival of cars in the UK market between 1971 and 1998. It is shown that, while competition influenced product survival in all market segments within the UK car market, the nature of that competition differed between them. In the small family and large family car segments, intra-firm competition dominated inter-firm competition. In contrast, in the luxury/sports car segment only inter-firm competition conditions resulted in product survival. Evidence was also found that the luxury/sports car segment has grown more competitive over time and that firms marketing products in the family car segments have become considerably more successful at avoiding the effects of intra-firm competition.

Layer-by-layer coating of alginate matrices with chitosan–alginate for the improved survival and targeted delivery of probiotic bacteria after oral administration

The oral administration of probiotic bacteria has shown potential in clinical trials for the alleviation of specific disorders of the gastrointestinal tract. However, cells must be alive in order to exert these benefits. The low pH of the stomach can greatly reduce the number of viable microorganisms that reach the intestine, thereby reducing the efficacy of the administration. Herein, a model probiotic, Bifidobacterium breve, has been encapsulated into an alginate matrix before coating in multilayers of alternating alginate and chitosan. The intention of this formulation was to improve the survival of B. breve during exposure to low pH and to target the delivery of the cells to the intestine. The material properties were first characterized before in vitro testing. Biacore™ experiments allowed for the polymer interactions to be confirmed; additionally, the stability of these multilayers to buffers simulating the pH of the gastrointestinal tract was demonstrated. Texture analysis was used to monitor changes in the gel strength during preparation, showing a weakening of the matrices during coating as a result of calcium ion sequestration. The build-up of multilayers was confirmed by confocal laser-scanning microscopy, which also showed the increase in the thickness of coat over time. During exposure to in vitro gastric conditions, an increase in viability from <3 log(CFU) per mL, seen in free cells, up to a maximum of 8.84 ± 0.17 log(CFU) per mL was noted in a 3-layer coated matrix. Multilayer-coated alginate matrices also showed a targeting of delivery to the intestine, with a gradual release of their loads over 240 min.

Probability of survival in a random exchange economy with dependent agents

In this paper I analyze the general equilibrium in a random Walrasian economy. Dependence among agents is introduced in the form of dependency neighborhoods. Under the uncertainty, an agent may fail to survive due to a meager endowment in a particular state (direct effect), as well as due to unfavorable equilibrium price system at which the value of the endowment falls short of the minimum needed for survival (indirect terms-of-trade effect). To illustrate the main result I compute the stochastic limit of equilibrium price and probability of survival of an agent in a large Cobb-Douglas economy.

Making sense of survival: refining the treatment of state preferences in neorealist theory

The assumption that ‘states' primary goal is survival’ lies at the heart of the neorealist paradigm. A careful examination of the assumption, however, reveals that neorealists draw upon a number of distinct interpretations of the ‘survival assumption’ that are then treated as if they are the same, pointing towards conceptual problems that surround the treatment of state preferences. This article offers a specification that focuses on two questions that highlight the role and function of the survival assumption in the neorealist logic: (i) what do states have to lose if they fail to adopt self-help strategies?; and (ii) how does concern for relevant losses motivate state behaviour and affect international outcomes? Answering these questions through the exploration of governing elites' sensitivity towards regime stability and territorial integrity of the state, in turn, addresses the aforementioned conceptual problems. This specification has further implications for the debates among defensive and offensive realists, potential extensions of the neorealist logic beyond the Westphalian states, and the relationship between neorealist theory and policy analysis.

Military competition and the emergence of nationalism: putting the logic of political survival into historical context

This essay aims to make a contribution to the conversation between IR and nationalism literatures by considering a particular question: What is the relationship between interstate military competition and the emergence of nationalism as a potent force in world politics? The conventional wisdom among international security scholars, especially neorealists, holds that nationalism can be more or less treated like a “technology” that allowed states to extract significant resources as well as manpower from their respective populations. This paper underlines some of the problems involved with this perspective and pushes forward an interpretation that is based on the logic of political survival. I argue that nationalism’s emergence as a powerful force in world politics followed from the “mutation” and absorption of the universalistic/cosmopolitan republican ideas that gained temporary primacy in Europe during the eighteenth century into particularistic nationalist ideologies. This transformation, in turn, can be best explained by the French Revolution’s dramatic impacts on rulers’ political survival calculi vis-à-vis both interstate and domestic political challenges. The analysis offered in this essay contributes to our understanding of the relationship between IR and nationalism while also highlighting the potential value of the political survival framework for exploring macrohistorical puzzles.

Effects of soil conditions and drought on egg hatching and larval survival of the clover root weevil (Sitona lepidus)

Soil-dwelling insect herbivores are significant pests in many managed ecosystems. Because eggs and larvae are difficult to observe, mathematical models have been developed to predict life-cycle events occurring in the soil. To date, these models have incorporated very little empirical information about how soil and drought conditions interact to shape these processes. This study investigated how soil temperature (10, 15, 20 and 25 °C), water content (0.02 (air dried), 0.10 and 0.25 g g−1) and pH (5, 7 and 9) interactively affected egg hatching and early larval lifespan of the clover root weevil (Sitona lepidus Gyllenhal, Coleoptera: Curculionidae). Eggs developed over 3.5 times faster at 25 °C compared with 10 °C (hatching after 40.1 and 11.5 days, respectively). The effect of drought on S. lepidus eggs was investigated by exposing eggs to drought conditions before wetting the soil (2–12 days later) at four temperatures. No eggs hatched in dry soil, suggesting that S. lepidus eggs require water to remain viable. Eggs hatched significantly sooner in slightly acidic soil (pH 5) compared with soils with higher pH values. There was also a significant interaction between soil temperature, pH and soil water content. Egg viability was significantly reduced by exposure to drought. When exposed to 2–6 days of drought, egg viability was 80–100% at all temperatures but fell to 50% after 12 days exposure at 10 °C and did not hatch at all at 20 °C and above. Drought exposure also increased hatching time of viable eggs. The effects of soil conditions on unfed larvae were less influential, except for soil temperature which significantly reduced larval longevity by 57% when reared at 25 °C compared with 10 °C (4.1 and 9.7 days, respectively). The effects of soil conditions on S. lepidus eggs and larvae are discussed in the context of global climate change and how such empirically based information could be useful for refining existing mathematical models of these processes.

Influence of encapsulation and coating materials on the survival of Lactobacillus plantarum and Bifidobacterium longum in fruit juices

The aim of this work was to compare alginate and pectin beads for improving the survival of Lactobacillus plantarum and Bifidobacterium longum during storage in pomegranate and cranberry juice, and to evaluate the influence of various coating materials, including chitosan, gelatin and glucomannan on cell survival and on the size and hardness of the beads. In pomegranate juice, free cells of L. plantarum died within 4 weeks of storage and those of B. longum within 1 week; in cranberry juice both types of cells died within one week. Encapsulation within either alginate or pectin beads improved cell survival considerably, but coating of the beads with chitosan or gelatin improved it even further; coating with glucomannan did not have any positive effect. The double gelatin coated pectin beads gave the highest protection among all types of beads, as a final concentration of approximately 108 CFU/mL and 106 CFU/mL for both L. plantarum and B. longum was obtained after 6 weeks of storage in pomegranate and cranberry juice, respectively. The good protection could be attributed to the very strong interaction between the two polymers, as measured by turbidity experiments, leading to the formation of a polyelectrolyte complex. It was also shown that the coating was able to inhibit the penetration of gallic acid within the beads, which was used in this study as a model phenolic compound with antimicrobial activity; this is a likely mechanism through which the beads were able to protect the cells from the antimicrobial activity of phenolic compounds present in both types of juices. Despite their good protective effect, the pectin beads were considerably softer than the alginate beads, an issue that should be addressed in order to increase their mechanical stability.

Survival, reproduction and population growth of the bee pollinator, Osmia rufa (Hymenoptera: Megachilidae), along gradients of heavy metal pollution

1. Bees are one of the most important groups of pollinators in the temperate zone. Although heavy metal pollution is recognised to be a problem affecting large parts of the European Union, we currently lack insights into the effects of heavy metals on wild bee survival and reproduction. 2. We investigated the impact of heavy metal pollution on the wild bee Osmia rufa (Hymenoptera: Megachilidae) by comparing their survival, reproduction and population dynamics along two independent gradients of heavy metal pollution, one in Poland and the other in the United Kingdom. We used trap nests to evaluate the response of fitness and survival parameters of O. rufa. To quantify the levels of pollution, we directly measured the heavy metal concentration in provisions collected by O. rufa. 3. We found that with increasing heavy metal concentration, there was a steady decrease in number of brood cells constructed by females and an increase in the proportion of dead offspring. In the most polluted site, there were typically 3–4 cells per female with 50–60% dead offspring, whereas in unpolluted sites there were 8 to 10 cells per female and only 10–30% dead offspring. Moreover, the bee population growth rate (R0) decreased along the heavy metal pollution gradients. In unpolluted sites, R0 was above 1, whereas in contaminated sites, the values tended to be below 1. 4. Our findings reveal a negative relationship between heavy metal pollution and several fitness parameters of the wild bee O. rufa, and highlight a mechanism whereby the detrimental effects of heavy metal pollution may severely impact wild bee communities.