What do cosmogenic isotopes tell us about past solar forcing of climate?

In paleoclimate studies, cosmogenic isotopes are frequently used as proxy indicators of past variations in solar irradiance on centennial and millennial timescales. These isotopes are spallation products of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) impacting Earth’s atmosphere, which are deposited and stored in terrestrial reservoirs such as ice sheets, ocean sediments and tree trunks. On timescales shorter than the variations in the geomagnetic field, they are modulated by the heliosphere and thus they are, strictly speaking, an index of heliospheric variability rather than one of solar variability. Strong evidence of climate variations associated with the production (as opposed to the deposition) of these isotopes is emerging. This raises a vital question: do cosmic rays have a direct influence on climate or are they a good proxy indicator for another factor that does (such as the total or spectral solar irradiance)? The former possibility raises further questions about the possible growth of air ions generated by cosmic rays into cloud condensation nuclei and/or the modulation of the global thunderstorm electric circuit. The latter possibility requires new understanding about the required relationship between the heliospheric magnetic fields that scatter cosmic rays and the photospheric magnetic fields which modulate solar irradiance.

Oscillations in the open solar magnetic flux with a period of 1.68 years: imprint on galactic cosmic rays and implications for heliospheric shielding

An understanding of how the heliosphere modulates galactic cosmic ray (GCR) fluxes and spectra is important, not only for studies of their origin, acceleration and propagation in our galaxy, but also for predicting their effects (on technology and on the Earth’s environment and organisms) and for interpreting abundances of cosmogenic isotopes in meteorites and terrestrial reservoirs. In contrast to the early interplanetary measurements, there is growing evidence for a dominant role in GCR shielding of the total open magnetic flux, which emerges from the solar atmosphere and enters the heliosphere. In this paper, we relate a strong 1.68- year oscillation in GCR fluxes to a corresponding oscillation in the open solar magnetic flux and infer cosmic-ray propagation paths confirming the predictions of theories in which drift is important in modulating the cosmic ray flux.

Gut permeability in autism spectrum disorders

Objective To test whether gut permeability is increased in autism spectrum disorders (ASD) by evaluating gut permeability in a population-derived cohort of children with ASD compared with age- and intelligence quotient-matched controls without ASD but with special educational needs (SEN). Patients and Methods One hundred thirty-three children aged 10–14 years, 103 with ASD and 30 with SEN, were given an oral test dose of mannitol and lactulose and urine collected for 6 hr. Gut permeability was assessed by measuring the urine lactulose/mannitol (L/M) recovery ratio by electrospray mass spectrometry-mass spectrometry. The ASD group was subcategorized for comparison into those without (n = 83) and with (n = 20) regression. Results There was no significant difference in L/M recovery ratio (mean (95% confidence interval)) between the groups with ASD: 0.015 (0.013–0.018), and SEN: 0.014 (0.009–0.019), nor in lactulose, mannitol, or creatinine recovery. No significant differences were observed in any parameter for the regressed versus non-regressed ASD groups. Results were consistent with previously published normal ranges. Eleven children (9/103 = 8.7% ASD and 2/30 = 6.7% SEN) had L/M recovery ratio > 0.03 (the accepted normal range cut-off), of whom two (one ASD and one SEN) had more definitely pathological L/M recovery ratios > 0.04. Conclusion There is no statistically significant group difference in small intestine permeability in a population cohort-derived group of children with ASD compared with a control group with SEN. Of the two children (one ASD and one SEN) with an L/M recovery ratio of > 0.04, one had undiagnosed asymptomatic celiac disease (ASD) and the other (SEN) past extensive surgery for gastroschisis.

The experience of friendship, victimization and bullying in children with an autism spectrum disorder: associations with child characteristics and school placement

Children with an autism spectrum disorder (ASD) may be vulnerable to social isolation and bullying. We measured the friendship, fighting/bullying and victimization experiences of 10–12-year-old children with an ASD (N = 100) using parent, teacher and child self-report. Parent and teacher reports were compared to an IQ-matched group of children with special educational needs (SEN) without ASD (N = 80) and UK population data. Parents and teachers reported a lower prevalence of friendships compared to population norms and to children with SEN without an ASD. Parents but not teachers reported higher levels of victimization than the SEN group. Half of the children with an ASD reported having friendships that involved mutuality. By teacher report children with an ASD who were less socially impaired in mainstream school experienced higher levels of victimization than more socially impaired children; whereas for more socially impaired children victimization did not vary by school placement. Strategies are required to support and improve the social interaction skills of children with an ASD, to enable them to develop and maintain meaningful peer friendships and avoid victimization.

Parent-reported gastro-intestinal symptoms in children with autism spectrum disorders

The objective of this study is to investigate whether parentally-reported gastro-intestinal (GI) symptoms are increased in a population-derived sample of children with autism spectrum disorders (ASD) compared to controls. Participants included 132 children with ASD and 81 with special educational needs (SEN) but no ASD, aged 10-14 years plus 82 typically developing (TD) children. Data were collected on GI symptoms, diet, cognitive abilities, and developmental histories. Nearly half (weighted rate 46.5 %) of children with ASD had at least one individual lifetime GI symptom compared with 21.8 % of TD children and 29.2 % of those with SEN. Children with ASD had more past and current GI symptoms than TD or SEN groups although fewer current symptoms were reported in all groups compared with the past. The ASD group had significantly increased past vomiting and diarrhoea compared with the TD group and more abdominal pain than the SEN group. The ASD group had more current constipation (when defined as bowel movement less than three times per week) and soiling than either the TD or SEN groups. No association was found between GI symptoms and intellectual ability, ASD severity, ASD regression or limited or faddy diet. Parents report more GI symptoms in children with ASD than children with either SEN or TD children but the frequency of reported symptoms is greater in the past than currently in all groups.

Open solar flux estimates from near-Earth measurements of the interplanetary magnetic field: comparison of the first two perihelion passes of the Ulysses spacecraft

Results from all phases of the orbits of the Ulysses spacecraft have shown that the magnitude of the radial component of the heliospheric field is approximately independent of heliographic latitude. This result allows the use of near- Earth observations to compute the total open flux of the Sun. For example, using satellite observations of the interplanetary magnetic field, the average open solar flux was shown to have risen by 29% between 1963 and 1987 and using the aa geomagnetic index it was found to have doubled during the 20th century. It is therefore important to assess fully the accuracy of the result and to check that it applies to all phases of the solar cycle. The first perihelion pass of the Ulysses spacecraft was close to sunspot minimum, and recent data from the second perihelion pass show that the result also holds at solar maximum. The high level of correlation between the open flux derived from the various methods strongly supports the Ulysses discovery that the radial field component is independent of latitude. We show here that the errors introduced into open solar flux estimates by assuming that the heliospheric field’s radial component is independent of latitude are similar for the two passes and are of order 25% for daily values, falling to 5% for averaging timescales of 27 days or greater. We compare here the results of four methods for estimating the open solar flux with results from the first and second perehelion passes by Ulysses. We find that the errors are lowest (1–5% for averages over the entire perehelion passes lasting near 320 days), for near-Earth methods, based on either interplanetary magnetic field observations or the aa geomagnetic activity index. The corresponding errors for the Solanki et al. (2000) model are of the order of 9–15% and for the PFSS method, based on solar magnetograms, are of the order of 13–47%. The model of Solanki et al. is based on the continuity equation of open flux, and uses the sunspot number to quantify the rate of open flux emergence. It predicts that the average open solar flux has been decreasing since 1987, as Correspondence to: M. Lockwood (m.lockwood@rl.ac.uk) is observed in the variation of all the estimates of the open flux. This decline combines with the solar cycle variation to produce an open flux during the second (sunspot maximum) perihelion pass of Ulysses which is only slightly larger than that during the first (sunspot minimum) perihelion pass.

Increases in plasma sheet temperature with solar wind driving during substorm growth phases

During the substorm growth phase, magnetic reconnection extracts ~10^15 J from the solar wind through magnetic reconnection at the magnetopause, which is then stored in the magnetotail lobes. Plasma sheet pressure then increases to balance magnetic flux density increases in the lobes. We examine plasma sheet pressure, density and temperature during substorm growth phases using nine years of Cluster data (>316,000 data points). We show that plasma sheet pressure and temperature are higher during growth phases with higher solar wind driving whereas the density is approximately constant. We also show a weak correlation between plasma sheet temperature before onset and the minimum SuperMAG SML auroral index in the subsequent substorm. We discuss how energization of the plasma sheet before onset may result from thermodynamically adiabatic processes; how hotter plasma sheets may result in magnetotail instabilities and how this relates to the onset and size of the subsequent substorm expansion phase.

Detection of solar dimming and brightening effects on Northern Hemisphere river flow

Anthropogenic aerosols in the atmosphere have the potential to affect regional-scale land hydrology through solar dimming. Increased aerosol loading may have reduced historical surface evaporation over some locations, but the magnitude and extent of this effect is uncertain. Any reduction in evaporation due to historical solar dimming may have resulted in an increase in river flow. Here we formally detect and quantify the historical effect of changing aerosol concentrations, via solar radiation, on observed river flow over the heavily industrialized, northern extra-tropics. We use a state-of-the-art estimate of twentieth century surface meteorology as input data for a detailed land surface model, and show that the simulations capture the observed strong inter-annual variability in runoff in response to climatic fluctuations. Using statistical techniques, we identify a detectable aerosol signal in the observed river flow both over the combined region, and over individual river basins in Europe and North America. We estimate that solar dimming due to rising aerosol concentrations in the atmosphere around 1980 led to an increase in river runoff by up to 25% in the most heavily polluted regions in Europe. We propose that, conversely, these regions may experience reduced freshwater availability in the future, as air quality improvements are set to lower aerosol loading and solar dimming.

Twenty-three cycles of changing open solar magnetic flux

This paper presents a comparison of various estimates of the open solar flux, deduced from measurements of the interplanetary magnetic field, from the aa geomagnetic index and from photospheric magnetic field observations. The first two of these estimates are made using the Ulysses discovery that the radial heliospheric field is approximately independent of heliographic latitude, the third makes use of the potential-field source surface method to map the total flux through the photosphere to the open flux at the top of the corona. The uncertainties associated with using the Ulysses result are 5%, but the effects of the assumptions of the potential field source surface method are harder to evaluate. Nevertheless, the three methods give similar results for the last three solar cycles when the data sets overlap. In 11-year running means, all three methods reveal that 1987 marked a significant peak in the long-term variation of the open solar flux. This peak is close to the solar minimum between sunspot cycles 21 and 22, and consequently the mean open flux (averaged from minimum to minimum) is similar for these two cycles. However, this similarity between cycles 21 and 22 in no way implies that the open flux is constant. The long-term variation shows that these cycles are fundamentally different in that the average open flux was rising during cycle 21 (from consistently lower values in cycle 20 and toward the peak in 1987) but was falling during cycle 22 (toward consistently lower values in cycle 23). The estimates from the geomagnetic aa index are unique as they extend from 1842 onwards (using the Helsinki extension). This variation gives strong anticorrelations, with very high statistical significance levels, with cosmic ray fluxes and with the abundances of the cosmogenic isotopes that they produce. Thus observations of photospheric magnetic fields, of cosmic ray fluxes, and of cosmogenic isotope abundances all support the long-term drifts in open solar flux reported by Lockwood et al. [1999a, 1999b].

The evolution of the sun’s open magnetic flux: II. full solar cycle simulations

In this paper the origin and evolution of the Sun’s open magnetic flux is considered by conducting magnetic flux transport simulations over many solar cycles. The simulations include the effects of differential rotation, meridional flow and supergranular diffusion on the radial magnetic field at the surface of the Sun as new magnetic bipoles emerge and are transported poleward. In each cycle the emergence of roughly 2100 bipoles is considered. The net open flux produced by the surface distribution is calculated by constructing potential coronal fields with a source surface from the surface distribution at regular intervals. In the simulations the net open magnetic flux closely follows the total dipole component at the source surface and evolves independently from the surface flux. The behaviour of the open flux is highly dependent on meridional flow and many observed features are reproduced by the model. However, when meridional flow is present at observed values the maximum value of the open flux occurs at cycle minimum when the polar caps it helps produce are the strongest. This is inconsistent with observations by Lockwood, Stamper and Wild (1999) and Wang, Sheeley, and Lean (2000) who find the open flux peaking 1–2 years after cycle maximum. Only in unrealistic simulations where meridional flow is much smaller than diffusion does a maximum in open flux consistent with observations occur. It is therefore deduced that there is no realistic parameter range of the flux transport variables that can produce the correct magnitude variation in open flux under the present approximations. As a result the present standard model does not contain the correct physics to describe the evolution of the Sun’s open magnetic flux over an entire solar cycle. Future possible improvements in modeling are suggested.

Long-term variations in the open solar flux and possible links to Earth’s climate

Recent paleoclimate studies provide strong evidence for an association between cosmogenic isotope production and Earth’s climate throughout the holecene. These isotopes are generated by the bombardment of Earth’s atmosphere by galactic cosmic rays, the fluxes of which vary in approximately inverse proportion to the total open magnetic flux of the Sun. This paper discusses how results from the Ulysses spacecraft allow us to quantify the open solar flux from observations of near-Earth interplanetary space and to study its long-term variations using the homogeneous record of geomagnetic activity. A study of the results and of their accuracy is presented. The two proposed mechanisms that could lead to the open solar flux being a good proxy for solar-induced climate change are discussed: the first is the modulation of the production of some types of cloud by the air ions produced by cosmic rays; the second is a variation in the total or spectral solar irradiance, in association with changes in the open flux. Some implications for our understanding of anthropogenic climate change are discussed.

An evaluation of the correlation between open solar flux and total solar irradiance

The correlation between the coronal source flux F_{S} and the total solar irradiance I_{TS} is re-evaluated in the light of an additional 5 years' data from the rising phase of solar cycle 23 and also by using cosmic ray fluxes detected at Earth. Tests on monthly averages show that the correlation with F_{S} deduced from the interplanetary magnetic field (correlation coefficient, r = 0.62) is highly significant (99.999%), but that there is insufficient data for the higher correlation with annual means (r = 0.80) to be considered significant. Anti-correlations between I_{TS} and cosmic ray fluxes are found in monthly data for all stations and geomagnetic rigidity cut-offs (r ranging from −0.63 to −0.74) and these have significance levels between 85% and 98%. In all cases, the t is poorest for the earliest data (i.e., prior to 1982). Excluding these data improves the anticorrelation with cosmic rays to r = −0:93 for one-year running means. Both the interplanetary magnetic field data and the cosmic ray fluxes indicate that the total solar irradiance lags behind the open solar flux with a delay that is estimated to have an optimum value of 2.8 months (and is within the uncertainty range 0.8-8.0 months at the 90% level).

Long-term changes in the solar photosphere associated with changes in the coronal source flux

Using sunspot observations from Greenwich and Mount Wilson, we show that the latitudinal spread of sunspot groups has increased since 1874, in a manner that closely mirrors the long-term (similar to 100 year) changes in the coronal source flux, F-s, as inferred from geomagnetic activity. This latitude spread is shown to be well correlated with the flux emergence rate required by the model of the coronal source flux variation by Solanki er al. [2000]. The time constant for the decay of this open flux is found to be 3.6 +/-0.8 years. Using this value, and quantifying the photospheric flux emergence rate using the latitudinal spread of sunspot groups, the model reproduces the observed coronal source flux variation. The ratio of the 100-year drift to the solar cycle amplitude for the flux emergence rate is found to be half of the same ratio for F-s.