Maize yield and rainfall on different spatial and temporal scales in Southern Brazil

This study aimed to establish relationships between maize yield and rainfall on different temporal and spatial scales, in order to provide a basis for crop monitoring and modelling. A 16-year series of maize yield and daily rainfall from 11 municipalities and micro-regions of Rio Grande do Sul State was used. Correlation and regression analyses were used to determine associations between crop yield and rainfall for the entire crop cycle, from tasseling to 30 days after, and from 5 days before tasseling to 40 days after. Close relationships between maize yield and rainfall were found, particularly during the reproductive period (45-day period comprising the flowering and grain filling). Relationships were closer on a regional scale than at smaller scales. Implications of the crop-rainfall relationships for crop modelling are discussed.

Restricted dispersal reduces the strength of spatial density dependence in a tropical bird population

Spatial processes could play an important role in density-dependent population regulation because the disproportionate use of poor quality habitats as population size increases is widespread in animal populations-the so-called buffer effect. While the buffer effect patterns and their demographic consequences have been described in a number of wild populations, much less is known about how dispersal affects distribution patterns and ultimately density dependence. Here, we investigated the role of dispersal in spatial density dependence using an extraordinarily detailed dataset from a reintroduced Mauritius kestrel (Falco punctatus) population with a territorial (despotic) breeding system. We show that recruitment rates varied significantly between territories, and that territory occupancy was related to its recruitment rate, both of which are consistent with the buffer effect theory. However, we also show that restricted dispersal affects the patterns of territory occupancy with the territories close to release sites being occupied sooner and for longer as the population has grown than the territories further away. As a result of these dispersal patterns, the strength of spatial density dependence is significantly reduced. We conclude that restricted dispersal can modify spatial density dependence in the wild, which has implications for the way population dynamics are likely to be impacted by environmental change.

Toward a combined seasonal weather and crop productivity forecasting system: Determination of the working spatial scale

A methodology is presented for the development of a combined seasonal weather and crop productivity forecasting system. The first stage of the methodology is the determination of the spatial scale(s) on which the system could operate; this determination has been made for the case of groundnut production in India. Rainfall is a dominant climatic determinant of groundnut yield in India. The relationship between yield and rainfall has been explored using data from 1966 to 1995. On the all-India scale, seasonal rainfall explains 52% of the variance in yield. On the subdivisional scale, correlations vary between variance r(2) = 0.62 (significance level p < 10(-4)) and a negative correlation with r(2) = 0.1 (p = 0.13). The spatial structure of the relationship between rainfall and groundnut yield has been explored using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. A coherent, large-scale pattern emerges for both rainfall and yield. On the subdivisional scale (similar to 300 km), the first principal component (PC) of rainfall is correlated well with the first PC of yield (r(2) = 0.53, p < 10(-4)), demonstrating that the large-scale patterns picked out by the EOFs are related. The physical significance of this result is demonstrated. Use of larger averaging areas for the EOF analysis resulted in lower and (over time) less robust correlations. Because of this loss of detail when using larger spatial scales, the subdivisional scale is suggested as an upper limit on the spatial scale for the proposed forecasting system. Further, district-level EOFs of the yield data demonstrate the validity of upscaling these data to the subdivisional scale. Similar patterns have been produced using data on both of these scales, and the first PCs are very highly correlated (r(2) = 0.96). Hence, a working spatial scale has been identified, typical of that used in seasonal weather forecasting, that can form the basis of crop modeling work for the case of groundnut production in India. Last, the change in correlation between yield and seasonal rainfall during the study period has been examined using seasonal totals and monthly EOFs. A further link between yield and subseasonal variability is demonstrated via analysis of dynamical data.

Spatial econometric issues for bio-economic and land-use modelling

We survey the literature on spatial bio-economic and land-use modelling and assess its thematic development. Unobserved site-specific heterogeneity is a feature of almost all the surveyed works, and this feature, it seems, has stimulated significant methodological innovation. In an attempt to improve the suitability with which the prototype incorporates heterogeneity, we consider modelling alternatives and extensions. We discuss solutions and conjecture others.

Spatial econometric issues for bio-economic and land-use modelling

We survey the literature on spatial bio-economic and land-use modelling and assess its thematic development. Unobserved site-specific heterogeneity is a feature of almost all the surveyed works, and this feature, it seems, has stimulated significant methodological innovation. In an attempt to improve the suitability with which the prototype incorporates heterogeneity, we consider modelling alternatives and extensions. We discuss solutions and conjecture others.

How big is your neighbourhood? Spatial implications of market participation among Filipino smallholders

We present a procedure for estimating two quantities defining the spatial externality in discrete-choice commonly referred to as 'the neighbourhood effect'. One quantity, the propensity for neighbours to make the same decision, reflects traditional preoccupations; the other quantity, the magnitude of the neighbourhood itself, is novel. Because both quantities have fundamental bearing on the magnitude of the spatial externality, it is desirable to have a robust algorithm for their estimation. Using recent advances in Bayesian estimation and model comparison, we devise such an algorithm and illustrate its application to a sample of northern-Filipino smallholders. We determine that a significant, positive, neighbourhood effect exists; that, among the 12 geographical units comprising the sample, the neighbourhood spans a three-unit radius; and that policy prescriptions are significantly altered when calculations account for the spatial externality.

Aggregation of parasitism risk in an aphid-parasitoid system: Effects of plant patch size and aphid density

Few studies have linked density dependence of parasitism and the tritrophic environment within which a parasitoid forages. In the non-crop plant-aphid, Centaurea nigra-Uroleucon jaceae system, mixed patterns of density-dependent parasitism by the parasitoids Aphidius funebris and Trioxys centaureae were observed in a survey of a natural population. Breakdown of density-dependent parasitism revealed that density dependence was inverse in smaller colonies but direct in large colonies (>20 aphids), suggesting there is a threshold effect in parasitoid response to aphid density. The CV2 of searching parasitoids was estimated from parasitism data using a hierarchical generalized linear model, and CV2>1 for A. funebris between plant patches, while for T. centaureae CV2>1 within plant patches. In both cases, density independent heterogeneity was more important than density-dependent heterogeneity in parasitism. Parasitism by T. centaureae increased with increasing plant patch size. Manipulation of aphid colony size and plant patch size revealed that parasitism by A. funebris was directly density dependent at the range of colony sizes tested (50-200 initial aphids), and had a strong positive relationship with plant patch size. The effects of plant patch size detected for both species indicate that the tritrophic environment provides a source of host density independent heterogeneity in parasitism, and can modify density-dependent responses. (c) 2007 Gessellschaft fur Okologie. Published by Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Spatial and management factors associated with exposure of smallholder dairy cattle in Tanzania to tick-borne pathogens

A cross-sectional study of serum antibody responses of cattle to tick-borne pathogens (Theileria parva, Theileria mutans, Anaplasma marginale, Babesia bigemina and Babesia bovis) was conducted on smallholder dairy farms in Tanga and Iringa Regions of Tanzania. Seroprevalence was highest for T. parva (48% in Iringa and 23% in Tanga) and B. bigemina (43% in Iringa and 27% in Tanga) and lowest for B. bovis (12% in Iringa and 6% in Tanga). We use spatial and non-spatial models, fitted using classical and Bayesian methods, to explore risk factors associated with seroprevalence. These include both fixed effects (age, grazing history and breeding status) and random effects (farm and local spatial effects). In both regions, seroprevalence for all tick-borne pathogens increased significantly with age. Animals pasture grazed in the 3 months prior to the start of the sampling period were significantly more likely to be seropositive for Theileria spp. and Babesia spp. Pasture grazed animals were more likely to be seropositive than zero-grazed animals for A. marginale, but the relationship was weaker than that observed for the other four pathogens. This study did not detect any significant differences in seroprevalence associated with other management-related variables, including the method or frequency of acaricide application. After adjusting for age, there was weak evidence of localised (< 5 km) spatial correlation in exposure to some of the tick borne diseases. However, this was small compared with the 'farm-effect', suggesting that risk factors specific to the farm were more important than those common to the local neighbourhood. Many animals were seropositive for more than one pathogen and the correlation between exposure to the different pathogens remained after adjusting for the identified risk factors. Identifying the determinants of exposure to multiple tick-borne pathogens and characterizing local variation in risk will assist in the development of more effective control strategies for smallholder dairy farms. (c) 2005 Australian Society for Parasitology Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The effects of spatial and temporal heterogeneity on the population dynamics of four animal species in a Danish landscape

Background: Variation in carrying capacity and population return rates is generally ignored in traditional studies of population dynamics. Variation is hard to study in the field because of difficulties controlling the environment in order to obtain statistical replicates, and because of the scale and expense of experimenting on populations. There may also be ethical issues. To circumvent these problems we used detailed simulations of the simultaneous behaviours of interacting animals in an accurate facsimile of a real Danish landscape. The models incorporate as much as possible of the behaviour and ecology of skylarks Alauda arvensis, voles Microtus agrestis, a ground beetle Bembidion lampros and a linyphiid spider Erigone atra. This allows us to quantify and evaluate the importance of spatial and temporal heterogeneity on the population dynamics of the four species. Results: Both spatial and temporal heterogeneity affected the relationship between population growth rate and population density in all four species. Spatial heterogeneity accounted for 23–30% of the variance in population growth rate after accounting for the effects of density, reflecting big differences in local carrying capacity associated with the landscape features important to individual species. Temporal heterogeneity accounted for 3–13% of the variance in vole, skylark and spider, but 43% in beetles. The associated temporal variation in carrying capacity would be problematic in traditional analyses of density dependence. Return rates were less than one in all species and essentially invariant in skylarks, spiders and beetles. Return rates varied over the landscape in voles, being slower where there were larger fluctuations in local population sizes. Conclusion: Our analyses estimated the traditional parameters of carrying capacities and return rates, but these are now seen as varying continuously over the landscape depending on habitat quality and the mechanisms of density dependence. The importance of our results lies in our demonstration that the effects of spatial and temporal heterogeneity must be accounted for if we are to have accurate predictive models for use in management and conservation. This is an area which until now has lacked an adequate theoretical framework and methodology.

Diversification of a large genus in a continental biodiversity hotspot: temporal and spatial origin of Muraltia (Polygalaceae) in the Cape of South Africa

Phylogenetic relationships in the largely South African genus Muraltia (Polygalaceae) are assessed based on DNA sequence data (nuclear ribosomal ITS, plastid atpB-rbcL spacer, trnL intron, and trnL-F spacer) for 73 of the 117 currently recognized species in the genus. The previously recognised subgenus Muraltia is monophyletic, but the South African endemic genus Nylandtia is embedded in Muraltia subgenus Psiloclada. Subgenus Muraltia is found to be sister to subgenus Psiloclada. Estimates show the beginning of diversification of the two subgenera in the early Miocene (Psiloclada, 19.3+/-3.4 Ma; Muraltia, 21.0+/-3.5 Ma) pre-dating the establishment of the Benguela current (intermittent in the middle to late Oligocene and markedly intensifying in the late Miocene), and summer-dry climate in the Cape region. However, the later increase in species numbers is contemporaneous with these climatic phenomena. Results of dispersal-vicariance analyses indicate that major clades in Muraltia diversified from the southwestern and northwestern Cape, where most of the species are found today.

Ingestion of onion soup high in quercetin inhibits platelet aggregation and essential components of the collagen-stimulated platelet activation pathway in man: a pilot study

Epidemiological data suggest that those who consume a diet rich in quercetin-containing foods may have a reduced risk of CVD. Furthermore, in vitro and ex vivo studies have observed the inhibition of collagen-induced platelet activation by quercetin. The aim of the present study was to investigate the possible inhibitory effects of quercetin ingestion from a dietary source on collagen-stimulated platelet aggregation and signalling. A double-blind randomised cross-over pilot study was undertaken. Subjects ingested a soup containing either a high or a low amount of quercetin. Plasma quercetin concentrations and platelet aggregation and signalling were assessed after soup ingestion. The high-quercetin soup contained 69 mg total quercetin compared with the low-quercetin soup containing 5 mg total quercetin. Plasma quercetin concentrations were significantly higher after high-quercetin soup ingestion than after low-quercetin soup ingestion and peaked at 2.59 (SEM 0.42) mu mol/l. Collagen-stimulated (0.5 mu g/ml) platelet aggregation was inhibited after ingestion of the high-quercetin soup in a time-dependent manner. Collagen-stimulated tyrosine phosphorylation of a key component of the collagen-signalling pathway via glycoprotein VI, Syk, was significantly inhibited by ingestion of the high-quercetin soup. The inhibition of Syk tyrosine phosphorylation was correlated with the area under the curve for the high-quercetin plasma profile. In conclusion, the ingestion of quercetin from a dietary source of onion soup could inhibit some aspects of collagen-stimulated platelet aggregation and signalling ex vivo. This further substantiates the epidemiological data suggesting that those who preferentially consume high amounts of quercetin-containing foods have a reduced risk of thrombosis and potential CVD risk.