Transferability of Regional Permafrost Disturbance Susceptibility Modelling Using Generalized Linear and Generalized Additive Models

To effectively assess and mitigate risk of permafrost disturbance, disturbance-p rone areas can be predicted through the application of susceptibility models. In this study we developed regional susceptibility models for permafrost disturbances using a field disturbance inventory to test the transferability of the model to a broader region in the Canadian High Arctic. Resulting maps of susceptibility were then used to explore the effect of terrain variables on the occurrence of disturbances within this region. To account for a large range of landscape charac- teristics, the model was calibrated using two locations: Sabine Peninsula, Melville Island, NU, and Fosheim Pen- insula, Ellesmere Island, NU. Spatial patterns of disturbance were predicted with a generalized linear model (GLM) and generalized additive model (GAM), each calibrated using disturbed and randomized undisturbed lo- cations from both locations and GIS-derived terrain predictor variables including slope, potential incoming solar radiation, wetness index, topographic position index, elevation, and distance to water. Each model was validated for the Sabine and Fosheim Peninsulas using independent data sets while the transferability of the model to an independent site was assessed at Cape Bounty, Melville Island, NU. The regional GLM and GAM validated well for both calibration sites (Sabine and Fosheim) with the area under the receiver operating curves (AUROC) N 0.79. Both models were applied directly to Cape Bounty without calibration and validated equally with AUROC's of 0.76; however, each model predicted disturbed and undisturbed samples differently. Addition- ally, the sensitivity of the transferred model was assessed using data sets with different sample sizes. Results in- dicated that models based on larger sample sizes transferred more consistently and captured the variability within the terrain attributes in the respective study areas. Terrain attributes associated with the initiation of dis- turbances were similar regardless of the location. Disturbances commonly occurred on slopes between 4 and 15°, below Holocene marine limit, and in areas with low potential incoming solar radiation

Terrain Controls and Landscape-Scale Susceptibility Modelling of Active-Layer Detachments, Sabine Peninsula, Melville Island, Nunavut

Modelling the susceptibility of permafrost slopes to disturbance can identify areas at risk to future disturbance and result in safer infrastructure and resource development in the Arctic. In this study, we use terrain attributes derived from a digital elevation model, an inventory of permafrost slope disturbances known as active-layer detachments (ALDs) and generalised additive modelling to produce a map of permafrost slope disturbance susceptibility for an area on northern Melville Island, in the Canadian High Arctic. By examining terrain variables and their relative importance, we identified factors important for initiating slope disturbance. The model was calibrated and validated using 70 and 30 per cent of a data-set of 760 mapped ALDs, including disturbed and randomised undisturbed samples. The generalised additive model calibrated and validated very well, with areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.89 and 0.81, respectively, demonstrating its effectiveness at predicting disturbed and undisturbed samples. ALDs were most likely to occur below the marine limit on slope angles between 3 and 10° and in areas with low values of potential incoming solar radiation (north-facing slopes).

Drying Peppers: Technolocy and Properties

The peppers can be very diverse, from sweet to hot peppers, varying in shape, in colour, in properties and usages. While some are eaten in the fresh state, many of them undergo a drying process to be preserved for a longer time and to increase availability and convenience. Hence, after harvesting, in many cases a drying operation is involved, and the present chapter aims to address this operation, of pivotal importance. In ancient times, the drying of foods in general and peppers in particular was done by exposure to the solar radiation. However, despite its cheapness and easiness, this process involved many drawbacks, like long drying times, probability of adverse atmospheric conditions and contaminations of the product. Hence, nowadays its usage is reduced. The most popular industrial drying method is the hot air convective drying. However, the high temperatures to which the product is exposed can cause changes in the composition and nutritional value as well as in the physical properties or organoleptic quality of the products. Other alternative methods can be used, but sometimes they are more expensive or more time consuming, such as is the case of freeze drying. Still, this last also has visible advantages from the quality point of view, minimizing the changes in texture, colour, flavour or nutrients. The knowledge of adequate drying operating conditions allows the optimization of the product characteristics, and hence to know the drying kinetics or the isotherms is fundamental to properly design the most adequate drying processes, and therefore preserve the organoleptic characteristics as well as the bioactive compounds present.

Sea surface temperture reconstruction and planktonic foraminifera of ODP Hole 117-723A

In the western Arabian Sea (WAS), the highest seasonal sea surface temperature (SST) difference presently occurs between May and August. In order to gain an understanding on how monsoonal upwelling modulates the SST difference between these two months, we have computed SST for the months of May and August based on census counts of planktonic foraminifers by using the artificial neural network (ANN) technique. The SST difference between May and August exhibits three distinct phases: i) a moderate SST difference in the late Holocene (0-3.5 ka) is attributable to intense upwelling during August, ii) a minimum SST difference from 4 to 12 ka is due to weak upwelling during the month of August, and iii) the highest SST difference during the last glacial interval (19 to 22 ka) with high Globigerina bulloides % could have been caused by the occurrence of a prolonged upwelling season (from May through July) and maximum difference in the incoming solar radiation between May and August. Overall, variations in the SST difference between May and August show that the timing of intense upwelling in the Western Arabian Sea over the last 22 kyr has been variable over the months of June, July and August.

Table 2: Firn temperature, ram resistance, mass balance and submergence velo city measurements on Colle Gnifetti

Distributional patterns of glaciological parameters at the Colle Gnifetti core drilling site are described and their interrelationships are brietly discussed. Observations within a stake network established in 1980 furnish information about snow accumulation (short term balance), submergence velocity of ice tlow (long term balance), ram hardness (melt layer stratigraphy), and firn temperature. In addition, a numerical model was used to estimate local variations of available radiant energy. Melt layer formation is considerably more intensive on the south facing parts of the firn saddie where incoming radiation is high. These melt layers seem to effectively protect some of the fallen snow from wind erosion. As a result, balance ist up to one order of magnitude larger on south facing slopes. Heat applied to the surface is therefore positively correlated with balance, whereas the relation between solar radiation and firn temperature is less dear. Distributional patterns of submergence velocity confirm that the observed spatial variability of surface balance is representative for longer time periods and greatly intluences the time scale and the stratigraphy of firn and ice cores from Colle Gnifetti.

Total organic carbon (TOC) on ground bulk and carbonate-free sediment samples of ODP Hole 151-911A

A multiproxy analysis of Hole 911A (Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Leg 151) drilled on the Yermak Plateau (eastern Arctic Ocean) is used to investigate the behaviour of the Svalbard/Barents Sea ice sheet (SBIS) during late Pliocene and early Pleistocene (~3.0-1.7 Ma) climate changes. Contemporary with the 'Mid-Pliocene (~3 Ma) global warmth' (MPGW), a warmer period lasting ~300 kyr with seasonally ice-free conditions in the marginal eastern Arctic Ocean is assumed to be an important regional moisture source, and possibly one decisive trigger for intensification of the Northern Hemisphere glaciation in the Svalbard/Barents Sea area at ~2.7 Ma. An abrupt pulse of ice-rafted debris (IRD) to the Yermak Plateau at ~2.7 Ma reflects distinct melting of sediment-laden icebergs derived from the SBIS and may indicate the protruding advance of the ice sheet onto the outer shelf. Spectral analysis of the total organic carbon (TOC) record being predominantly of terrigenous/fossil-reworked origin indicates SBIS and possibly Scandinavian Ice Sheet response to incoming solar radiation at obliquity and precession periodicities. The strong variance in frequencies near the 41 kyr obliquity cycle between 2.7 and 1.7 Ma indicates, for the first time in the Arctic Ocean, a close relationship of SBIS growth and decay patterns to the Earth's orbital obliquity amplitudes, which dominated global ice volume variations during late Pliocene/early Pleistocene climate changes.

Calculated actinic fluxes (290 - 700 nm) for air pollution photochemistry applications /

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Our prodigal sun.

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Surface atmospheric extremes (launch and transportation areas)

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Synoptic radio maps of the sun at 3.3mm for the years 1967-1969,

Mode of access: Internet.

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Mode of access: Internet.

Radiant energy in relation to forests,

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