Dynamic soil–structure interaction of monopile supported wind turbines in cohesive soil.

Offshore wind turbines supported on monopile foundations are dynamically sensitive because the overall natural frequencies of these structures are close to the different forcing frequencies imposed upon them. The structures are designed for an intended life of 25 to 30 years, but little is known about their long term behaviour. To study their long term behaviour, a series of laboratory tests were conducted in which a scaled model wind turbine supported on a monopile in kaolin clay was subjected to between 32,000 and 172,000 cycles of horizontal loading and the changes in natural frequency and damping of the model were monitored. The experimental results are presented using a non-dimensional framework based on an interpretation of the governing mechanics. The change in natural frequency was found to be strongly dependent on the shear strain level in the soil next to the pile. Practical guidance for choosing the diameter of monopile is suggested based on element test results using the concept of volumetric threshold shear strain.

Winkler springs (p-y curves) for liquefied soil from element tests.

In practice, piles are most often modelled as "Beams on Non-Linear Winkler Foundation" (also known as “p-y spring” approach) where the soil is idealised as p-y springs. These p-y springs are obtained through semi-empirical approach using element test results of the soil. For liquefied soil, a reduction factor (often termed as p-multiplier approach) is applied on a standard p-y curve for the non-liquefied condition to obtain the p-y curve liquefied soil condition. This paper presents a methodology to obtain p-y curves for liquefied soil based on element testing of liquefied soil considering physically plausible mechanisms. Validation of the proposed p-y curves is carried out through the back analysis of physical model tests.

Soil differentiation using fingerprint Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, chemometrics and genetic algorithm-based feature selection

Elliott, G. N., Worgan, H., Broadhurst, D. I., Draper, J. H., Scullion, J. (2007). Soil differentiation using fingerprint Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, chemometrics and genetic algorithm-based feature selection. Soil Biology & Biochemistry, 39 (11), 2888-2896. Sponsorship: BBSRC / NERC RAE2008

Uncertainty in wind energy forecasting

Wind energy is the energy source that contributes most to the renewable energy mix of European countries. While there are good wind resources throughout Europe, the intermittency of the wind represents a major problem for the deployment of wind energy into the electricity networks. To ensure grid security a Transmission System Operator needs today for each kilowatt of wind energy either an equal amount of spinning reserve or a forecasting system that can predict the amount of energy that will be produced from wind over a period of 1 to 48 hours. In the range from 5m/s to 15m/s a wind turbine’s production increases with a power of three. For this reason, a Transmission System Operator requires an accuracy for wind speed forecasts of 1m/s in this wind speed range. Forecasting wind energy with a numerical weather prediction model in this context builds the background of this work. The author’s goal was to present a pragmatic solution to this specific problem in the ”real world”. This work therefore has to be seen in a technical context and hence does not provide nor intends to provide a general overview of the benefits and drawbacks of wind energy as a renewable energy source. In the first part of this work the accuracy requirements of the energy sector for wind speed predictions from numerical weather prediction models are described and analysed. A unique set of numerical experiments has been carried out in collaboration with the Danish Meteorological Institute to investigate the forecast quality of an operational numerical weather prediction model for this purpose. The results of this investigation revealed that the accuracy requirements for wind speed and wind power forecasts from today’s numerical weather prediction models can only be met at certain times. This means that the uncertainty of the forecast quality becomes a parameter that is as important as the wind speed and wind power itself. To quantify the uncertainty of a forecast valid for tomorrow requires an ensemble of forecasts. In the second part of this work such an ensemble of forecasts was designed and verified for its ability to quantify the forecast error. This was accomplished by correlating the measured error and the forecasted uncertainty on area integrated wind speed and wind power in Denmark and Ireland. A correlation of 93% was achieved in these areas. This method cannot solve the accuracy requirements of the energy sector. By knowing the uncertainty of the forecasts, the focus can however be put on the accuracy requirements at times when it is possible to accurately predict the weather. Thus, this result presents a major step forward in making wind energy a compatible energy source in the future.

Magnetic Resonance Imaging Biomarkers of Renal Structure and Function

The kidney's major role in filtration depends on its high blood flow, concentrating mechanisms, and biochemical activation. The kidney's greatest strengths also lead to vulnerability for drug-induced nephrotoxicity and other renal injuries. The current standard to diagnose renal injuries is with a percutaneous renal biopsy, which can be biased and insufficient. In one particular case, biopsy of a kidney with renal cell carcinoma can actually initiate metastasis. Tools that are sensitive and specific to detect renal disease early are essential, especially noninvasive diagnostic imaging. While other imaging modalities (ultrasound and x-ray/CT) have their unique advantages and disadvantages, MRI has superb soft tissue contrast without ionizing radiation. More importantly, there is a richness of contrast mechanisms in MRI that has yet to be explored and applied to study renal disease.

The focus of this work is to advance preclinical imaging tools to study the structure and function of the renal system. Studies were conducted in normal and disease models to understand general renal physiology as well as pathophysiology. This dissertation is separated into two parts--the first is the identification of renal architecture with ex vivo MRI; the second is the characterization of renal dynamics and function with in vivo MRI. High resolution ex vivo imaging provided several opportunities including: 1) identification of fine renal structures, 2) implementation of different contrast mechanisms with several pulse sequences and reconstruction methods, 3) development of image-processing tools to extract regions and structures, and 4) understanding of the nephron structures that create MR contrast and that are important for renal physiology. The ex vivo studies allowed for understanding and translation to in vivo studies. While the structure of this dissertation is organized by individual projects, the goal is singular: to develop magnetic resonance imaging biomarkers for renal system.

The work presented here includes three ex vivo studies and two in vivo studies:

1) Magnetic resonance histology of age-related nephropathy in sprague dawley.

2) Quantitative susceptibility mapping of kidney inflammation and fibrosis in type 1 angiotensin receptor-deficient mice.

3) Susceptibility tensor imaging of the kidney and its microstructural underpinnings.

4) 4D MRI of renal function in the developing mouse.

5) 4D MRI of polycystic kidneys in rapamycin treated Glis3-deficient mice.

ANALYSIS AND SIMULATION OF ENERGY USE AND COST AT A MUNICIPAL WASTEWATER TREATMENT PLANT

The cost of electricity, a major operating cost of municipal wastewater treatment plants, is related to influent flow rate, power price, and power load. With knowledge of inflow and price patterns, plant operators can manage processes to reduce electricity costs. Records of influent flow, power price, and load are evaluated for Blue Plains Advanced Wastewater Treatment Plant. Diurnal and seasonal trends are analyzed. Power usage is broken down among treatment processes. A simulation model of influent pumping, a large power user, is developed. It predicts pump discharge and power usage based on wet-well level. Individual pump characteristics are tested in the plant. The model accurately simulates plant inflow and power use for two pumping stations [R2 = 0.68, 0.93 (inflow), R2 =0.94, 0.91(power)]. Wet-well stage-storage relationship is estimated from data. Time-varying wet-well level is added to the model. A synthetic example demonstrates application in managing pumps to reduce electricity cost.

A novel neural/symbolic hybrid approach to heuristically optimized fuel allocation and automated revision of heuristics in nuclear engineering

FUELCON is an expert system for optimized refueling design in nuclear engineering. This task is crucial for keeping down operating costs at a plant without compromising safety. FUELCON proposes sets of alternative configurations of allocation of fuel assemblies that are each positioned in the planar grid of a horizontal section of a reactor core. Results are simulated, and an expert user can also use FUELCON to revise rulesets and improve on his or her heuristics. The successful completion of FUELCON led this research team into undertaking a panoply of sequel projects, of which we provide a meta-architectural comparative formal discussion. In this paper, we demonstrate a novel adaptive technique that learns the optimal allocation heuristic for the various cores. The algorithm is a hybrid of a fine-grained neural network and symbolic computation components. This hybrid architecture is sensitive enough to learn the particular characteristics of the ‘in-core fuel management problem’ at hand, and is powerful enough to use this information fully to automatically revise heuristics, thus improving upon those provided by a human expert.

Guest Editorial. Special Issue: Temporal logic in engineering

Logic-based models are thriving within artificial intelligence. A great number of new logics have been defined, and their theory investigated. Epistemic logics introduce modal operators for knowledge or belief; deontic logics are about norms, and introduce operators of deontic necessity and possibility (i.e., obligation or prohibition). And then we have a much investigated class—temporal logics—to whose application to engineering this special issue is devoted. This kind of formalism deserves increased widespread recognition and application in engineering, a domain where other kinds of temporal models (e.g., Petri nets) are by now a fairly standard part of the modelling toolbox.

A hybrid Laplace transform/finite difference boundary element method for diffusion problems

The solution process for diffusion problems usually involves the time development separately from the space solution. A finite difference algorithm in time requires a sequential time development in which all previous values must be determined prior to the current value. The Stehfest Laplace transform algorithm, however, allows time solutions without the knowledge of prior values. It is of interest to be able to develop a time-domain decomposition suitable for implementation in a parallel environment. One such possibility is to use the Laplace transform to develop coarse-grained solutions which act as the initial values for a set of fine-grained solutions. The independence of the Laplace transform solutions means that we do indeed have a time-domain decomposition process. Any suitable time solver can be used for the fine-grained solution. To illustrate the technique we shall use an Euler solver in time together with the dual reciprocity boundary element method for the space solution

Profitability and the poor: corporate strategies, innovation and sustainability

Based on empirical evidence, the article looks at the implications of private sector participation (PSP) for the delivery of water supply and sanitation to the urban and peri-urban poor in developing countries, with particular reference to Africa and Latin America. More precisely, the article addresses the impact produced by multinational companies’ (MNCs) strategies, in light of the pursuit of profitability, on the extension of connections to the pipeline network. It does so by questioning the assumptions that greater private sector efficiency and innovation, together with contract design, will enable the sustainable extension of service coverage to low income dwellers. The strategies of the major water MNCs are considered both in relation to the global expansion of their operations and the adjustment of local strategies to commercial considerations. The latter might result in identifying proWtable markets, modifying contractual provisions, attempting to reduce costs and increase income, reducing risks and exiting from non-performing contracts. The evidence reviewed allows for re-assessing the relative roles of the public and private sectors in extending and delivering water services to the poor. First, the most far reaching innovative approaches to extending connections are more likely to come from communities, public authorities and political activity than from MNCs. Secondly, whenever MNCs are liable to exit from non-profitable contracts, the public sector has no other option than to deal with external risks aVecting continuity of provision. Finally, market limitations affecting MNCs’ ability to serve marginal populations and access cheap capital do not apply to well-organised, politically led public sector undertakings

Engineering design knowledge management in de-centralised virtual enterprises

The problems of collaborative engineering design and knowledge management at the conceptual stage in a network of dissimilar enterprises was investigated. This issue in engineering design is a result of the supply chain and virtual enterprise (VE) oriented industry that demands faster time to market and accurate cost/manufacturing analysis from conception. The solution consisted of a de-centralised super-peer net architecture to establish and maintain communications between enterprises in a VE. In the solution outlined below, the enterprises are able to share knowledge in a common format and nomenclature via the building-block shareable super-ontology that can be tailored on a project by project basis, whilst maintaining the common nomenclature of the ‘super-ontology’ eliminating knowledge interpretation issues. The two-tier architecture layout of the solution glues together the peer-peer and super-ontologies to form a coherent system for both internal and virtual enterprise knowledge management and product development.

Assessing the environmental consequences of CO2 leakage from geological CCS: Generating evidence to support environmental risk assessment

At the start of the industrial revolution (circa 1750) the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) was around 280 ppm. Since that time the burning of fossil fuel, together with other industrial processes such as cement manufacture and changing land use, has increased this value to 400 ppm, for the first time in over 3 million years. With CO2 being a potent greenhouse gas, the consequence of this rise for global temperatures has been dramatic, and not only for air temperatures. Global Sea Surface Temperature (SST) has warmed by 0.4–0.8 °C during the last century, although regional differences are evident (IPCC, 2007). This rise in atmospheric CO2 levels and the resulting global warming to some extent has been ameliorated by the oceanic uptake of around one quarter of the anthropogenic CO2 emissions (Sabine et al., 2004). Initially this was thought to be having little or no impact on ocean chemistry due to the capacity of the ocean’s carbonate buffering system to neutralise the acidity caused when CO2 dissolves in seawater. However, this assumption was challenged by Caldeira and Wickett (2005) who used model predictions to show that the rate at which carbonate buffering can act was far too slow to moderate significant changes to oceanic chemistry over the next few centuries. Their model predicted that since pre-industrial times, ocean surface water pH had fallen by 0.1 pH unit, indicating a 30% increase in the concentration of H+ ions. Their model also showed that the pH of surface waters could fall by up to 0.4 units before 2100, driven by continued and unabated utilisation of fossil fuels. Alongside increasing levels of dissolved CO2 and H+ (reduced pH) an increase in bicarbonate ions together with a decrease in carbonate ions occurs. These chemical changes are now collectively recognised as “ocean acidification”. Concern now stems from the knowledge that concentrations of H+, CO2, bicarbonate and carbonate ions impact upon many important physiological processes vital to maintaining health and function in marine organisms. Additionally, species have evolved under conditions where the carbonate system has remained relatively stable for millions of years, rendering them with potentially reduced capacity to adapt to this rapid change. Evidence suggests that, whilst the impact of ocean acidification is complex, when considered alongside ocean warming the net effect on the health and productivity of the oceans will be detrimental.

High Level Environmental Screening Study for Offshore Wind Farm Developments – Marine Habitats and Species Project

High level environmental screening study for offshore wind farm developments – marine habitats and species This report provides an awareness of the environmental issues related to marine habitats and species for developers and regulators of offshore wind farms. The information is also relevant to other offshore renewable energy developments. The marine habitats and species considered are those associated with the seabed, seabirds, and sea mammals. The report concludes that the following key ecological issues should be considered in the environmental assessment of offshore wind farms developments: • likely changes in benthic communities within the affected area and resultant indirect impacts on fish, populations and their predators such as seabirds and sea mammals; • potential changes to the hydrography and wave climate over a wide area, and potential changes to coastal processes and the ecology of the region; • likely effects on spawning or nursery areas of commercially important fish and shellfish species; • likely effects on mating and social behaviour in sea mammals, including migration routes; • likely effects on feeding water birds, seal pupping sites and damage of sensitive or important intertidal sites where cables come onshore; • potential displacement of fish, seabird and sea mammals from preferred habitats; • potential effects on species and habitats of marine natural heritage importance; • potential cumulative effects on seabirds, due to displacement of flight paths, and any mortality from bird strike, especially in sensitive rare or scarce species; • possible effects of electromagnetic fields on feeding behaviour and migration, especially in sharks and rays, and • potential marine conservation and biodiversity benefits of offshore wind farm developments as artificial reefs and 'no-take' zones. The report provides an especially detailed assessment of likely sensitivity of seabed species and habitats in the proposed development areas. Although sensitive to some of the factors created by wind farm developments, they mainly have a high recovery potential. The way in which survey data can be linked to Marine Life Information Network (MarLIN) sensitivity assessments to produce maps of sensitivity to factors is demonstrated. Assessing change to marine habitats and species as a result of wind farm developments has to take account of the natural variability of marine habitats, which might be high especially in shallow sediment biotopes. There are several reasons for such changes but physical disturbance of habitats and short-term climatic variability are likely to be especially important. Wind farm structures themselves will attract marine species including those that are attached to the towers and scour protection, fish that associate with offshore structures, and sea birds (especially sea duck) that may find food and shelter there. Nature conservation designations especially relevant to areas where wind farm might be developed are described and the larger areas are mapped. There are few designated sites that extend offshore to where wind farms are likely to be developed. However, cable routes and landfalls may especially impinge on designated sites. The criteria that have been developed to assess the likely marine natural heritage importance of a location or of the habitats and species that occur there can be applied to survey information to assess whether or not there is anything of particular marine natural heritage importance in a development area. A decision tree is presented that can be used to apply ‘duty of care’ principles to any proposed development. The potential ‘gains’ for the local environment are explored. Wind farms will enhance the biodiversity of areas, could act as refugia for fish, and could be developed in a way that encourages enhancement of fish stocks including shellfish.

Variation in offspring size towards the high elevational range edge of a montane annual

Understanding the ecological determinants of species’ distribution is a fundamental goal of ecology, and is increasingly important with changing limits to species’ range. Species often reach distributional limits on gradients of resource availability, but the extent to which offspring provisioning varies towards range limits is poorly understood. Selection is generally expected to favour higher provisioning of individual offspring in environments with short growing seasons and limited moisture, nutrients, or hosts for parasitism. However, individual provisioning may decline if parent size is limited by resources. This thesis focuses on three major questions: 1) does seed size vary over an elevational gradient? 2) does this variation respond adaptively towards the range limit? and 3) is potential elevational variation environmentally or genetically controlled? I tested variation in seed investment towards the upper elevational limit of the hemiparasitic annual herb Rhinanthus minor, sampled across an elevational range of 1,000m in the Rocky Mountains of Alberta, Canada. I also used a reciprocal transplant experiment to address the heritability of seed mass. Seed mass increased marginally towards higher elevations, while seed number and plant size declined. There was a strong elevational increase in seed mass scaled by overall plant size. Therefore, investment in individual seeds was higher towards the upper range edge, indicating potential adaptation of the reproductive strategy to allow for establishment in marginal environments. Genetic, environmental, and genotype-by-environment interactions were observed in transplanted populations, but the relative proportions of these effects on seed size were unclear.