Poverty impacts of increased openness and fiscal policies in a dollarized economy: a CGE-micro approach for Ecuador

We quantify the effects on poverty and income distribution in Ecuador of bilateral trade liberalization with the US and a budget-neutral value added tax increase which seeks to compensate tariff revenue losses. We stress the study of fiscal policies that the government could tap in order to compensate for tariff revenue loss. This is a very important issue for Ecuador because this country adopted the US dollar as its currency in 2000, forgiving the use of important policy instruments. To study these issues we combine a reduced-form micro household income and occupational choice model (using 2005/6 data from the Ecuadorian LSMS) with a standard single-country computable general equilibrium model (employing a 2004 SAM). We follow a sequential approach that simulates the full distributional impact of trade and tax policies. We find that the impact of these policy changes on extreme poverty and income distribution is small but positive.

Prevalencia de patologías osteomusculares del miembro superior y su relación con factores ocupacionales en trabajadores de una empresa de flores. Bogotá 2015

Antecedentes: Las patologías osteomusculares del miembro superior son una importante causa de morbilidad laboral a nivel mundial y en nuestro país, particularmente en el sector de la floricultura. Del desarrollo de estos desórdenes se derivan importantes costos derivados del ausentismo laboral, incapacidades y secuelas. Objetivo: determinar la prevalencia de patología osteomuscular de miembro superior con calificación de origen de enfermedad laboral, en los trabajadores con diagnóstico de patología musculo esquelética de miembro superior y su relación con algunos factores ocupacionales y demográficos. Metodología: Estudio de corte transversal en el que se revisaron datos secundarios procedentes de una base de datos del servicio de salud ocupacional entre enero y mayo de 2015, correspondiente a 465 operarios (no administrativos) a término indefinido de una empresa floricultora de Bogotá, incluyendo únicamente aquellos trabajadores con patologías osteomusculares de miembro superior, que contaban con la clasificación en el diagnóstico ya sea como enfermedad laboral o enfermedad común y mayores de edad. Se excluyeron 19 trabajadores, quienes habían sido reubicados en nuevos sitios de trabajo y no se contó con la información para determinar su actividad antes de realizar el cambio. Se evaluaron las siguientes variables: sexo, edad, antigüedad y el cargo desempeñados por los operarios. La relación entre variables se realizó con la prueba de chi2 de Pearson. Se midió la magnitud de la asociación por medio de OR con sus respectivos intervalos de confianza del 95%. Resultados: Se incluyó a 373 operarios a término fijo, con una media de edad de 39 años (DE=5.55) y una media de antigüedad en el cargo de 6 años (DE=1.15). El 82.84% correspondió al sexo femenino. La prevalencia de enfermedad laboral osteomuscular de miembro superior fue del 54,4%. En el análisis de relación entre la calificación de la enfermedad, y demás variables (sexo, antigüedad en el cargo, edad, actividad desempeñada, localización de la lesión); se encontró que: estar entre los 40 a 49 años (OR= 1,7; IC-95%:1,12 – 2,79), diagnóstico de síndrome de manguito (OR= 4.45; IC-95%: 2.48 – 8.23) y el síndrome de túnel de carpo (OR= 4.22; IC-95%: 2.45 – 7.41) se asociaron a enfermedad laboral. Conclusiones: La prevalencia de enfermedad laboral de patología osteomuscular de miembro superior en los operarios de un cultivo de flores de la Sabana de Bogotá es del (54,4%). Se encontró una mayor asociación con el síndrome del manguito rotador y enfermedad laboral. No se encontró asociación entre la enfermedad laboral y la actividad desempeñada, el tiempo de exposición, ni con el sexo del trabajador.

Desarrollo de estrategias ambientales que contribuyan a la reducción de los impactos ambientales en la ejecución de obras de ingeniería civil

Los diferentes sectores de la economía ejercen múltiples actividades que impulsan el crecimiento socio-económico de los diferentes países, sin embargo dichas actividades tienen repercusiones importantes a nivel ambiental, dentro de las que se encuentran transformaciones irreversibles del planeta, tanto físicas como químicas. Gracias a esto, en la actualidad, las empresas y organizaciones han empezado a controlar con mayor responsabilidad sus respectivos procesos y operaciones, buscando no solo mitigar los impactos negativos ocasionados al medio ambiente y a la sociedad sino la optimización en el uso de recursos tanto físicos como económicos. El presente estudio tiene como finalidad analizar las operaciones que se realizan en una obra civil, con el fin de identificar cuáles son las principales causantes de contaminación, por otro lado se hará mención de como la normatividad y legislación colombiana aplica y ejerce control en cada uno de los mismos, finalmente se plantearán diferentes soluciones y alternativas para que dicha industria pueda implementarlas en sus quehaceres diarios. Para lograr lo anterior se utilizaron diferentes herramientas que facilitaron la obtención de datos e información para el estudio tales como: entrevistas a los miembros y participantes de la obra civil, visitas de campo, recopilación de información de estudios similares, realización de la matriz de aspectos e impactos y fichas ambientales, entre otras. Los resultados obtenidos permitieron entender que es inevitable que esta industria no genere ciertas contaminaciones e impactos negativos, además de identificar que la normativa del país en cuanto control ambiental se encuentra algo atrasada, factor que fue determinante a la hora de proponer distintas alternativas que buscan tanto facilitar las prácticas que el sector de la construcción tiene en el país como minimizar al máximo los impactos ambientales negativos ocasionados.

Natural resources, redistribution and Human capital formation

How do resource booms affect human capital accumulation? We exploit time and spatial variation generated by the commodity boom across local governments in Peru to measure the effect of natural resources on human capital formation. We explore the effect of both mining production and tax revenues on test scores, finding a substantial and statistically significant effect for the latter. Transfers to local governments from mining tax revenues are linked to an increase in math test scores of around 0.23 standard deviations. We find that the hiring of permanent teachers as well as the increases in parental employment and improvements in health outcomes of adults and children are plausible mechanisms for such large effect on learning. These findings suggest that redistributive policies could facilitate the accumulation of human capital in resource abundant developing countries as a way to avoid the natural resources curse.

Previsió d'impactes en el medi físic, derivats de l'explotació de les formacions geològiques d'interés per a la producció d'àrids, a la zona del curs mitjà del Riu Fluvià (La Garrotxa)

Potential mining of the pliocene and quaternary geological formations for the aggregate production along the medium course of the Fluvil river is likely to be carried out through gravel pits. The most significant environmental impacts are envisaged to occur during site preparation and extraction of aggregate. Several environmental impacts types have been considered: variation of water table, reduction of soil and vegetation, development of unbalanced land-forms and deterioration of landscape

Avaliação institucional : impactos no currículo dos cursos de licenciatura plena das faculdades integradas de patos - pb

O presente trabalho dissertativo objetivou levantar e descrever os impactos causados pela Avaliação Institucional do MEC no âmbito do currículo dos cursos superiores de Licenciatura Plena, tomando-se como objeto empírico de verificação as Faculdades Integradas de Patos – FIP. Em linhas gerais, o referido trabalho evidencia o histórico da avaliação institucional brasileira, identificando os modelos avaliativos: PAIUB, ENC e SINAES, levando-se em consideração as ideias conceituais de teóricos, como: Leite (1997), Brito (2006), Buarque (2005), Dias Sobrinho (2000), Balzan (2005), Catani (1997), Gadotti (2005), Trindade (1999), dentre outros. Apresenta a organização curricular dos Cursos de Licenciatura Plena das Faculdades Integradas de Patos que são: Geografia, História, Letras e Pedagogia, identificando cada curso a partir de sua matriz curricular, destacando a proposta do Plano de Desenvolvimento Institucional e do Plano Pedagógico Institucional da IES. Por último, mostra os resultados da pesquisa de campo que foi desenvolvida a partir da aplicação de questionários direcionados aos segmentos dos Docentes, Coordenadores de Curso, Coordenações Acadêmicas e Membros da Comissão Própria de Avaliação das FIP. Com base nos resultados da pesquisa de campo, os Cursos de Licenciatura Plena das FIP nesta última década, sofrerem e vem sofrendo os impactos das avaliações institucionais do MEC. Tais impactos configuramse a partir de perspectivas mais positivas do que negativas, pois estes cursos desde que começaram a participar do processo avaliativo do MEC, que se veem envolvidos em processos de auto-avaliação, tanto interno como externo, apresentando melhorias significativas.

Nanotecnologia aplicada à pele

A nanotecnologia foi introduzida nas áreas farmacêutica e cosmética, com o propósito de possibilitar o desenvolvimento de sistemas de veiculação de substâncias e para a optimização das formulações já existentes. As preparações de aplicação tópica têm elevada importância nas perspectivas terapêutica e cosmética, uma vez que a pele apresenta uma área de aplicação extensa e acessível, os efeitos sistémicos das substâncias a administrar por via tópica encontram-se geralmente reduzidos, exercendo na maioria das vezes um efeito local. Mais, a esta via estão normalmente associadas menos reacções adversas. Todavia, a pele é um órgão, dotado de um efeito barreira notável, que pode comprometer a administração de moléculas farmacológica/cosmetologicamente activas no alvo. Assim, é evidente a necessidade de conhecer a constituição da pele, pois a permeabilidade cutânea de substâncias é um desafio que só pode ser conseguido através da preparação de formulações capazes de ultrapassar essa mesma barreira. O trabalho exposto aborda sucintamente a nanocosmética, pois esta tem revelado elevados impactos económico, social e científico. A inexistência de informação sobre quais os produtos actualmente comercializados, cuja produção tenha por base a nanotecnologia, suscitaram o interesse em desenvolver uma revisão sobre esses mesmos produtos, assim como esclarecer alguns aspectos relacionados com as características da pele, que justificam o investimento e estudo exaustivo deste tipo de preparações.

Climate response to basin-scale warming and cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean

Using experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model, the climate impacts of a basin-scale warming or cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean are investigated. Multidecadal fluctuations with this pattern were observed during the twentieth century, and similar variations--but with larger amplitude--are believed to have occurred in the more distant past. It is found that in all seasons the response to warming the North Atlantic is strongest, in the sense of highest signal-to-noise ratio, in the Tropics. However there is a large seasonal cycle in the climate impacts. The strongest response is found in boreal summer and is associated with suppressed precipitation and elevated temperatures over the lower-latitude parts of North and South America. In August­-September-­October there is a significant reduction in the vertical shear in the main development region for Atlantic hurricanes. In winter and spring, temperature anomalies over land in the extratropics are governed by dynamical changes in circulation rather than simply reflecting a thermodynamic response to the warming or cooling of the ocean. The tropical climate response is primarily forced by the tropical SST anomalies, and the major features are in line with simple models of the tropical circulation response to diabatic heating anomalies. The extratropical climate response is influenced both by tropical and higher-latitude SST anomalies and exhibits nonlinear sensitivity to the sign of the SST forcing. Comparisons with multidecadal changes in sea level pressure observed in the twentieth century support the conclusion that the impact of North Atlantic SST change is most important in summer, but also suggest a significant influence in lower latitudes in autumn and winter. Significant climate impacts are not restricted to the Atlantic basin, implying that the Atlantic Ocean could be an important driver of global decadal variability. The strongest remote impacts are found to occur in the tropical Pacific region in June­-August and September­-November. Surface anomalies in this region have the potential to excite coupled ocean­atmosphere feedbacks, which are likely to play an important role in shaping the ultimate climate response.

Potential predictability of rapid changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

We explore the potential predictability of rapid changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) using a coupled global climate model (HadCM3). Rapid changes in the temperature and salinity of surface water in the Nordic Seas, and the flow of dense water through Denmark Strait, are found to be precursors to rapid changes in the model's MOC, with a lead time of around 10 years. The mechanism proposed to explain this potential predictability relies on the development of density anomalies in the Nordic Seas which propagate through Denmark Strait and along the deep western boundary current, affecting the overturning. These rapid changes in the MOC have significant, and widespread, climate impacts which are potentially predictable a few years ahead. Whilst the flow through Denmark Strait is too strong in HadCM3, the presence of such potential predictability motivates the monitoring of water properties in the Nordic Seas and Denmark Strait.

Climate change and heat-related mortality in six cities Part 2: climate model evaluation and projected impacts from changes in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change

Previous assessments of the impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality use the "delta method" to create temperature projection time series that are applied to temperature-mortality models to estimate future mortality impacts. The delta method means that climate model bias in the modelled present does not influence the temperature projection time series and impacts. However, the delta method assumes that climate change will result only in a change in the mean temperature but there is evidence that there will also be changes in the variability of temperature with climate change. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the importance of considering changes in temperature variability with climate change in impacts assessments of future heat-related mortality. We investigate future heatrelated mortality impacts in six cities (Boston, Budapest, Dallas, Lisbon, London and Sydney) by applying temperature projections from the UK Meteorological Office HadCM3 climate model to the temperature-mortality models constructed and validated in Part 1. We investigate the impacts for four cases based on various combinations of mean and variability changes in temperature with climate change. The results demonstrate that higher mortality is attributed to increases in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change rather than with the change in mean temperature alone. This has implications for interpreting existing impacts estimates that have used the delta method. We present a novel method for the creation of temperature projection time series that includes changes in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change and is not influenced by climate model bias in the modelled present. The method should be useful for future impacts assessments. Few studies consider the implications that the limitations of the climate model may have on the heatrelated mortality impacts. Here, we demonstrate the importance of considering this by conducting an evaluation of the daily and extreme temperatures from HadCM3, which demonstrates that the estimates of future heat-related mortality for Dallas and Lisbon may be overestimated due to positive climate model bias. Likewise, estimates for Boston and London may be underestimated due to negative climate model bias. Finally, we briefly consider uncertainties in the impacts associated with greenhouse gas emissions and acclimatisation. The uncertainties in the mortality impacts due to different emissions scenarios of greenhouse gases in the future varied considerably by location. Allowing for acclimatisation to an extra 2°C in mean temperatures reduced future heat-related mortality by approximately half that of no acclimatisation in each city.