Short and long period optimization of drug doses in the treatment of AIDS

Técnicas de otimização numérica são úteis na solução de problemas de determinação da melhor entrada para sistemas descritos por modelos matemáticos e cujos objetivos podem ser expressos de uma maneira quantitativa. Este trabalho aborda o problema de otimizar as dosagens dos medicamentos no tratamento da AIDS em termos de um balanço entre a resposta terapêutica e os efeitos colaterais. Um modelo matemático para descrever a dinâmica do vírus HIV e células CD4 é utilizado para calcular a dosagem ótima do medicamento no tratamento a curto prazo de pacientes com AIDS por um método de otimização direta utilizando uma função custo do tipo Bolza. Os parâmetros do modelo foram ajustados com dados reais obtidos da literatura. Com o objetivo de simplificar os procedimentos numéricos, a lei de controle foi expressa em termos de uma expansão em séries que, após truncamento, permite obter controles sub-ótimos. Quando os pacientes atingem um estado clínico satisfatório, a técnica do Regulador Linear Quadrático (RLQ) é utilizada para determinar a dosagem permanente de longo período para os medicamentos. As dosagens calculadas utilizando a técnica RLQ , tendem a ser menores do que a equivalente terapia de dose constante em termos do expressivo aumento na contagem das células T+ CD4 e da redução da densidade de vírus livre durante um intervalo fixo de tempo.

Previsão de carga multinodal usando a rede neural ART-ARTMAP fuzzy

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Elétrica - FEIS

Desenvolvimento de redes neurais para previsão de cargas elétricas de sistemas de energia elétrica

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

A Quality Assessment of Titanium Castings Produced in an Experimental Short-Heating-Cycle Investment

The aim of this study was to evaluate the quality of casting produced in an experimental short-term heating-cycle investment. Thus, reaction layer and castability of titanium casting using an experimental spinel-based investment (VR) with short heating cycle were compared with the commercial short-heating-cycle spinel-based investment Trinell (TR), the silica-phosphate-based investment Rematitan Plus ( RP), and the conventional spinel-based investment Rematitan Ultra (RU). VR has polymeric fibers added to inorganic particles. Reaction layer assessments were carried out using Vickers hardness and elemental analysis using dispersive X-ray microanalysis (EDX). Mesh patterns were used for castability test, and powder characterization was made by scanning electron microscopy (SEM). Hardness evaluation showed no difference among the investments between 100 and 200 mu m. The most important contaminant element for VR, TR, and RU was oxygen. Higher levels of mold filling were found for TR, VR, and RU compared with that obtained with RP. The quality of castings, characterized by means of the assessments of reaction layer and castability, made from the VR was similar to the commercial investments TR and RU but superior to the RP.

Long-term follow-up in sacroiliac joint pain patients treated with radiofrequency ablative therapy

Sacroiliac joint (SIJ) pain is responsible for up to 40% of all cases of lumbar back pain. Objective Report the long-term efficacy of radiofrequency denervation for sacroiliac joint pain at six, twelve and eighteen months. Method Third-two adults’ patients with sacroiliac join pain diagnosis were included for a prospective study. Primary outcome measure was pain intensity on the Numeric Rating Scale (NRS). Secondary outcome measure was Patient Global Impression of Change Scale (PGIC). Results Short-term pain relief was observed, with the mean NRS pain score decreasing from 7.7 ± 1.8 at baseline to 2.8 ± 1.2 at one month and to 3.1 ± 1.9 at six months post-procedure (p < 0.001). Long-term pain relief was sustained at twelve and eighteen months post-procedure, with NRS pain remaining at 3.4 ± 2.1 and 4.0 ± 2.7, respectively. Conclusion Radiofrequency denervation of the SIJ can significantly reduce pain in selected patients with sacroiliac syndrome.

Long-term recovery patterns of arctic tundra after winter seismic exploration

In response to the increasing global demand for energy, oil exploration and development are expanding into frontier areas of the Arctic, where slow-growing tundra vegetation and the underlying permafrost soils are very sensitive to disturbance. The creation of vehicle trails on the tundra from seismic exploration for oil has accelerated in the past decade, and the cumulative impact represents a geographic footprint that covers a greater extent of Alaska’s North Slope tundra than all other direct human impacts combined. Seismic exploration for oil and gas was conducted on the coastal plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, Alaska, USA, in the winters of 1984 and 1985. This study documents recovery of vegetation and permafrost soils over a two-decade period after vehicle traffic on snow-covered tundra. Paired permanent vegetation plots (disturbed vs. reference) were monitored six times from 1984 to 2002. Data were collected on percent vegetative cover by plant species and on soil and ground ice characteristics. We developed Bayesian hierarchical models, with temporally and spatially autocorrelated errors, to analyze the effects of vegetation type and initial disturbance levels on recovery patterns of the different plant growth forms as well as soil thaw depth. Plant community composition was altered on the trails by species-specific responses to initial disturbance and subsequent changes in substrate. Long-term changes included increased cover of graminoids and decreased cover of evergreen shrubs and mosses. Trails with low levels of initial disturbance usually improved well over time, whereas those with medium to high levels of initial disturbance recovered slowly. Trails on ice-poor, gravel substrates of riparian areas recovered better than those on ice-rich loamy soils of the uplands, even after severe initial damage. Recovery to pre-disturbance communities was not possible where trail subsidence occurred due to thawing of ground ice. Previous studies of disturbance from winter seismic vehicles in the Arctic predicted short-term and mostly aesthetic impacts, but we found that severe impacts to tundra vegetation persisted for two decades after disturbance under some conditions. We recommend management approaches that should be used to prevent persistent tundra damage.

Chronic Intermittent Hypoxia Depresses Afferent Neurotransmission in NTS Neurons by a Reduction in the Number of Active Synapses

Long-term synaptic plasticity has been recently described in brainstem areas associated to visceral afferent sensory integration. Chronic intermittent hypoxia (CIH), an animal model for studying obstructive sleep apnea in humans, depresses the afferent neurotransmission in nucleus tractus solitarii (NTS) neurons, which affect respiratory and autonomic regulation. Here we identified the synaptic mechanisms of CIH-induced depression of the afferent neurotransmission in NTS neurons in juvenile rats. We verified that CIH reduced the amplitude of both NMDA and non-NMDA glutamatergic excitatory currents (eEPSCs) evoked by tractus solitarii stimulation (TS-eEPSC) of second-order neurons in the NTS. No changes were observed in release probability, evidenced by absence of any CIH-elicited effects on short-term depression and failures in EPSCs evoked in low calcium. CIH also produced no changes in TS-eEPSC quantal size, since the amplitudes of both low calcium-evoked EPSCs and asynchronous TS-eEPSCs (evoked in the presence of Sr2+) were unchanged. Using single TS afferent fiber stimulation in slices from control and CIH rats we clearly show that CIH reduced the quantal content of the TS-eEPSCs without affecting the quantal size or release probability, suggesting a reduction in the number of active synapses as the mechanism of CIH induced TS-eEPSC depression. In accordance with this concept, the input-output relationship of stimulus intensity and TS-eEPSC amplitude shows an early saturation in CIH animals. These findings open new perspectives for a better understanding of the mechanisms underlying the synaptic plasticity in the brainstem sensory neurons under challenges such as those produced by CIH in experimental and pathological conditions.

Linear and nonlinear measures of fetal heart rate patterns evaluated on very short fetal magnetocardiograms

We analyzed the effectiveness of linear short- and long-term variability time domain parameters, an index of sympatho-vagal balance (SDNN/RMSSD) and entropy in differentiating fetal heart rate patterns (fHRPs) on the fetal heart rate (fHR) series of 5, 3 and 2 min duration reconstructed from 46 fetal magnetocardiograms. Gestational age (GA) varied from 21 to 38 weeks. FHRPs were classified based on the fHR standard deviation. In sleep states, we observed that vagal influence increased with GA, and entropy significantly increased (decreased) with GA (SDNN/RMSSD), demonstrating that a prevalence of vagal activity with autonomous nervous system maturation may be associated with increased sleep state complexity. In active wakefulness, we observed a significant negative (positive) correlation of short-term (long-term) variability parameters with SDNN/RMSSD. ANOVA statistics demonstrated that long-term irregularity and standard deviation of normal-to-normal beat intervals (SDNN) best differentiated among fHRPs. Our results confirm that short-and long-term variability parameters are useful to differentiate between quiet and active states, and that entropy improves the characterization of sleep states. All measures differentiated fHRPs more effectively on very short HR series, as a result of the fMCG high temporal resolution and of the intrinsic timescales of the events that originate the different fHRPs.

Effectiveness of a long-term use of a minimalist footwear versus habitual shoe on pain, function and mechanical loads in knee osteoarthritis: a randomized controlled trial

Background: Recent studies have shown an important reduction of joint overload during locomotion in elderly women with knee osteoarthritis (OA) after short- term use of minimalist shoes. Our aim is to investigate the chronic effect of inexpensive and minimalist footwear on the clinical and functional aspects of OA and gait biomechanics of elderly women with knee OA. Methods/Design: Fifty-six elderly women with knee OA grade 2 or 3 (Kellgren and Lawrence) are randomized into blocks and allocated to either the intervention group, which will use flexible, non-heeled shoes-Moleca (R)-for six months for at least six hours daily, or the control group, which could not use these shoes. Neither group is undergoing physical therapy treatment throughout the intervention period. Moleca (R) is a women's double canvas, flexible, flat walking shoe without heels, with a 5-mm anti-slip rubber sole and a 3-mm internal wedge of ethylene vinyl acetate. Both groups will be followed for six months and will be assessed at baseline condition, after three months, and after six months (end of intervention). All the assessments will be performed by a physiotherapist that is blind to the group allocation. The primary outcome is the pain Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis (WOMAC) score. The secondary outcomes are global WOMAC score; joint stiffness and disability WOMAC scores; knee pain with a visual analogue scale; walking distance in the six-minute walk test; Lequesne score; amount and frequency (number of days) of paracetamol (500 mg) intake over six months; knee adduction moment during gait; global medical assessment score; and global patient auto-assessment score. At baseline, all patients receive a diary to record the hours of daily use of the footwear intervention; every two weeks, the same physiotherapist makes phone calls to all patients in order to verify adherence to treatment. The statistical analysis will be based on intention to treat analysis, as well as general linear models of analysis of variance for repeated measure to detect treatment-time interactions (alpha = 5%). Discussion: This is the first randomized, clinical trial protocol to assess the chronic effect of minimalist footwear on the clinical and functional aspects and gait biomechanics of elderly women with knee osteoarthritis. We expect that the use of Moleca (R) shoes for six months will provide pain relief, reduction of the knee adduction moment when walking, and improve joint function in elderly women with knee OA, and that the treatment, thus, can be considered another inexpensive and easy-to-use option for conservative OA treatment.

Long-term consequences of an intensive care unit stay in older critically ill patients: design of a longitudinal study

Background Modern methods in intensive care medicine often enable the survival of older critically ill patients. The short-term outcomes for patients treated in intensive care units (ICUs), such as survival to hospital discharge, are well documented. However, relatively little is known about subsequent long-term outcomes. Pain, anxiety and agitation are important stress factors for many critically ill patients. There are very few studies concerned with pain, anxiety and agitation and the consequences in older critically ill patients. The overall aim of this study is to identify how an ICU stay influences an older person's experiences later in life. More specific, this study has the following objectives: (1) to explore the relationship between pain, anxiety and agitation during ICU stays and experiences of the same symptoms in later life; and (2) to explore the associations between pain, anxiety and agitation experienced during ICU stays and their effect on subsequent health-related quality of life, use of the health care system (readmissions, doctor visits, rehabilitation, medication use), living situation, and survival after discharge and at 6 and 12 months of follow-up. Methods/Design A prospective, longitudinal study will be used for this study. A total of 150 older critically ill patients in the ICU will participate (ICU group). Pain, anxiety, agitation, morbidity, mortality, use of the health care system, and health-related quality of life will be measured at 3 intervals after a baseline assessment. Baseline measurements will be taken 48 hours after ICU admission and one week thereafter. Follow-up measurements will take place 6 months and 12 months after discharge from the ICU. To be able to interpret trends in scores on outcome variables in the ICU group, a comparison group of 150 participants, matched by age and gender, recruited from the Swiss population, will be interviewed at the same intervals as the ICU group. Discussion Little research has focused on long term consequences after ICU admission in older critically ill patients. The present study is specifically focussing on long term consequences of stress factors experienced during ICU admission.

Stocking of captive-bred fish can cause long-term population decline and gene pool replacement: predictions from a population dynamics model incorporating density-dependent mortality

Releasing captive-bred fish into natural environments (stocking) is common in fisheries worldwide. Although stocking is believed to have a positive effect on fish abundance over the short term, little is known about the long-term consequences of recurrent stocking and its influence on natural populations. In fact, there are growing concerns that genetically maladapted captive-bred fish can eventually reduce the abundance of natural population. In this study, we develop a simple model to quantitatively investigate the condition under which recurrent stocking has long-term effects on the natural population. Using a population dynamics model that takes into account a density-dependent recruitment, a gene responsible for the fitness difference between wild and captive-bred fish, and hybridization between them, we show that there is little or no contribution of recurrent stocking to the stock enhancement without a replacement of the wild gene pool by the captive-bred gene pool. The model further predicted that stocking of an intermediate level causes a reduction, rather than enhancement, of population size over the long term. The population decline due to stocking was attributed to the fitness disadvantage of captive-bred fish and strong overcompensation at recruitment stage. These results suggest that it would be difficult to simultaneously attain population size recovery and conservation of the local gene pool when captive-bred fish have fitness disadvantage in the wild, although caution is needed when applying the predictions from the simplified model to a specific species or population.

Long-Term Outcome After Monosegmental L4/5 Stabilization for Degenerative Spondylolisthesis With the Dynesys Device

STUDY DESIGN:: retrospective analysis of prospectively collected clinical data. OBJECTIVE:: To assess the long-term outcome of patients with monosegmental L4/5 degenerative spondylolisthesis treated with the dynamic Dynesys device. SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA:: The Dynesys® system has been used as a semirigid, lumbar dorsal pedicular stabilization device since 1994. Good short-term results have been reported, but little is known about the long-term outcome following treatment for degenerative spondylolisthesis at the L4/5 level. METHODS:: 39 consecutive patients with symptomatic degenerative lumbar spondylolisthesis at the L4/5 level were treated with bilateral decompression and Dynesys instrumentation. At a mean follow-up of 7.2 years (range 5.0-11.2▒y) they underwent clinical and radiographic evaluation and quality of life assessment. RESULTS:: At final follow-up back pain improved in 89% and leg pain improved in 86% of patients compared to preoperative status. 83% of patients reported global subjective improvement. 92% would undergo the surgery again. 8 patients (21%) required further surgery due to symptomatic adjacent segment disease (6 cases), late onset infection (1 case), and screw breakage (1 case). In 9 cases radiological progression of spondylolisthesis at the operated segment was found. 74% of operated segments showed limited flexion-extension range of less than 4°. Adjacent segment pathology, though without clinical correlation, was diagnosed at the L5/S1 (17.9%) and L3/4 (28.2%) segments. In 4 cases asymptomatic screw loosening was observed. CONCLUSION:: Monosegmental Dynesys instrumentation of degenerative spondylolisthesis at L4/5 shows good long-term results. The rate of secondary surgeries is comparable to other dorsal instrumentation devices. Residual range of motion in the stabilized segment is reduced, and the rate of radiological and symptomatic adjacent segment degeneration is low. Patient satisfaction is high. Dynesys stabilization of symptomatic L4/5 degenerative spondylolisthesis is a possible alternative to other stabilization devices.

Long-term patency of complex bilobular, bisaccular, and broad-neck aneurysms in the rabbit microsurgical venous pouch bifurcation model

In experimental aneurysm models, long-term patency without spontaneous thrombosis is the most important precondition for analyses of embolization devices. We recently reported the feasibility of creating complex venous pouch bifurcation aneurysms in the rabbit with low morbidity, low mortality, and high short-term aneurysm patency. In order to further evaluate our model, we examined the long-term patency rate.

Long-term results and complications following uvulopalatopharyngoplasty in 116 consecutive patients

A modified uvulopalatopharyngoplasty (UPPP) was carried out between January 1992 and December 2003 at the ENT Department of the Inselspital in Bern in 146 patients with habitual or complicated rhonchopathy. The operation consisted of a classical tonsillectomy or residual tonsil resection and additional shortening of the uvula. The natural mucosal fold between the uvula and the upper pole of the tonsils was carefully preserved. A wide opening to the rhinopharynx was created by asymmetric suturing of the glossopalantine and pharyngopalatine arches. A retrospective questionnaire with regard to rhonchopathy, phases of apnea, daytime drowsiness, obstruction of nasal breathing, long-term complications and patient satisfaction was used to evaluate the short-term and long-term effectiveness of the modified UPPP as well as the incidence of adverse side effects. Complete postoperative courses were evaluated in 116 patients. Surgical complications were restricted to one case with postoperative hemorrhage. A velum insufficiency or postoperative rhinopharyngeal stenosis did not occur. Eighty-three patients (72%) confirmed a persistent suppression or substantial improvement of the rhonchopathy. Disappearance or decrease of sleep apnea was confirmed in 12 (63%) out of 19 postoperative polysomnographic follow-up investigations. Long-term complications occurred in a total of 27 (23%) of 116 patients. They were confined to minor problems such as dryness of the mouth (n = 12), slight difficulty in swallowing (n = 7), discrete speech disturbances (n = 1), and slight pharyngeal dysesthesias (n = 7) with feeling of a lump in the throat and compulsive clearing of the throat. Eighty-five patients (73%) reported that they were satisfied with the postoperative result even several years after the operation. Looking back, 31 patients (27%) would no longer have the operation performed. The inadequate result of the rhonchopathy was specified as the reason by 21 patients. Ten patients had unpleasant memories of the operation because of intensive postoperative pain. Snoring and apneic phases are suppressed or improved by non-traumatic UPPP in the majority of patients. This effect persisted even years after the operation.

Sleep-disordered breathing and acute ischemic stroke: diagnosis, risk factors, treatment, evolution, and long-term clinical outcome

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Sleep-disordered breathing (SDB) is frequent in stroke patients. Risk factors, treatment response, short-term and long-term outcome of SDB in stroke patients are poorly known. METHODS: We prospectively studied 152 patients (mean age 56+/-13 years) with acute ischemic stroke. Cardiovascular risk factors, Epworth sleepiness score (ESS), stroke severity/etiology, and time of stroke onset were assessed. The apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) was determined 3+/-2 days after stroke onset and 6 months later (subacute phase). Continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) treatment was started acutely in patients with SDB (AHI > or =15 or AHI > or =10+ESS >10). CPAP compliance, incidence of vascular events, and stroke outcome were assessed 60+/-16 months later (chronic phase). RESULTS: Initial AHI was 18+/-16 (> or =10 in 58%, > or =30 in 17% of patients) and decreased in the subacute phase (P<0.001). Age, diabetes, and nighttime stroke onset were independent predictors of AHI (r2=0.34). In patients with AHI > or =30, age, male gender, body mass index, diabetes, hypertension, coronary heart disease, ESS, and macroangiopathic etiology of stroke were significantly higher/more common than in patients with AHI <10. Long-term incidence of vascular events and stroke outcome were similar in both groups. CPAP was started in 51% and continued chronically in 15% of SDB pts. Long-term stroke mortality was associated with initial AHI, age, hypertension, diabetes, and coronary heart disease. CONCLUSIONS: SDB is common particularly in elderly stroke male patients with diabetes, nighttime stroke onset, and macroangiopathy as cause of stroke; it improves after the acute phase, is associated with an increased poststroke mortality, and can be treated with CPAP in a small percentage of patients.