Structural breaks and unit roots in Australian macroeconomic time series

We examine the unit root properties of 16 Australian macroeconomic time series using monthly data spanning the period 1960–2004. In addition to the standard Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test, we implement one- and two-break endogenous structural break ADF-type unit root tests as well as one- and two-break Lagrange multiplier (LM) unit root tests. While the ADF test provides relatively little evidence against the unit root null hypothesis, once we allow for structural breaks we are able to reject the unit root null for just under half of the variables at the 10% level or better.

Risk of prostate cancer associated with a family history in an era of rapid increase in prostate cancer diagnosis (Australia)

OBJECTIVE: We conducted a case-control study of prostate cancer and familial risk of the disease in Australia between 1994 and 1998, a period during which the incidence of prostate cancer increased dramatically with widespread use of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing. METHODS: 1475 cases and 1405 controls were asked about prostate cancer in their first-degree relatives. Odds ratios (OR) were calculated using logistic regression. RESULTS: Cases were more likely to report a family history of prostate cancer than controls (OR 3.0; 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.3-3.9) and cases reporting an affected relative were younger (58.8 versus 60.9 years, p < 0.0001). The OR for an affected first-degree relative increased with increasing number of affected relatives and decreased with increasing age of the case. The OR for more than one affected first-degree relative was 6.9 (95% CI 2.7-18). The OR for an affected brother was 3.9 (95% CI 2.5-6.1) and for an affected father was 2.9 (95% CI 2.1-3.9) but these were not significantly different (p = 0.2). When analyses were repeated including only diagnoses made in relatives prior to 1992, the risks were generally similar except that the OR for an affected brother decreased to 3.1 (95% CI 1.2-3.9). When only relatives' diagnoses made after 1991 were included results were again similar to those for all relatives, although the effect for brothers was greater and the attenuation with age at diagnosis dissipated. CONCLUSIONS: The recent introduction of PSA testing that has resulted in a greater prevalence of apparent prostate cancer, does not appear to have substantially altered familial risks of disease, although effects associated with brothers may be inflated.

Environmental learning in adolescents from a Mexican community involved in forestry

Education can generate knowledge and foster a change in attitude provided that people feel individually and collectively responsible for the state of the environment. San Juan Nuevo Parangaricutiro is an internationally recognised indigenous community located in western Mexico that manages its forest sustainably through a community-based forest enterprise. However, recent research has shown that both children and young people from the community show little interest in participating in forest activities or working in forest enterprise and have a poor standard of environmental knowledge. Our research project assessed the environmental learning process of 32 high-school pupils in three settings: at school at home and in a forest enterprise. The opinions of teachers and adults of teaching subjects which focus on communal forest management were collected using various methods (questionnaires, observation and interviews) and analysed. The results show that school and home alike are important places for learning. However, environmental issues were not much addressed in the schoolroom or in conversations between parents and children. Furthermore, no connection between the activities of the forest enterprise and the school curriculum was found.

Does every child know they matter? : Pupil's views of one alternative to exclusion

Schools are now urged to make every child matter. In this paper we present the case of the Coalfields Alternatives to Exclusion (CATE) strategy in which pupils at risk of permanent exclusion are offered the opportunity to start afresh in a new school. Without the stigma of exclusion, pupils are able to develop new relationships with peers and teachers and enhance self-esteem. We argue that this system of managed moves, despite some difficulties and challenges, offers an insight into the ways in which feelings of mattering can be translated into new behaviours and intentions. This we suggest provides pupils with a positive opportunity to resume their education and to be genuinely included in the life of their new school.

Microstructural development in Al/MgAl2O4 in situ metal matrix composite using value-added silica sources

Al/MgAl2O4 in situ metal matrix composites have been synthesized using value-added silica sources (microsilica and rice husk ash) containing ~97% SiO2 in Al-5 wt.% Mg alloy. The thermodynamics and kinetics of MgAl2O4 formation are discussed in detail. The MgO and MgAl2O4 phases were found to dominate in microsilica (MS) and rice husk ash (RHA) value-added composites, respectively, during the initial stage of holding the composites at 750 °C. A transition phase between MgO and MgAl2O4 was detected by the scanning electron microscopy and energy-dispersive spectroscopy (SEM–EDS) analysis of the particles extracted from the composite using 25% NaOH solution. This confirms that MgO is gradually transformed to MgAl2O4 by the reaction 3SiO2(s)+2MgO(s)+4Al(l)→2MgAl2O4(s)+3Si(l). The stoichiometry of MgAl2O4, n, computed by a new methodology is between 0.79 and 1.18. The reaction between the silica sources and the molten metal stopped after 55% of the silica source was consumed. A gradual increase in mean MgAl2O4 crystallite size, D, from 24 to 36 nm was observed in the samples held for 10 h.

Detecting and treating depression in people with mild intellectual disability : the views of key stakeholders

There is a pressing need for the development of programs for the early identification and treatment of depression in individuals with mild intellectual disability. The aim of this study was to ascertain the perspective of 64 key stakeholders (people with intellectual disability, healthcare professionals, family/caregivers & support workers) regarding the risk factors and characteristics of depression, the support and service needs of individuals with intellectual disability/depression and those who care for them. Findings enhance our understanding of depression and its risk factors in people with mild intellectual disability and endorse the need for the development of screening and intervention programs suitable for delivery by staff in agencies providing services to people with mild intellectual disability.

Love thy neighbour? Associations of social capital and crime with physical activity amongst women

Using a multilevel study design, this study examined the associations between social characteristics of individuals and neighbourhoods and physical activity among women. Women (n = 1405) recruited from 45 Melbourne (Australia) neighbourhoods of varying socioeconomic disadvantage provided data on social factors and leisure-time: physical activity; walking; and walking in one’s own neighbourhood. Individual level social factors were number of neighbours known and social participation. Neighbourhood-level social characteristics (interpersonal trust, norms of reciprocity, social cohesion) were derived by aggregating survey data on these constructs within neighbourhoods. Objective data on crimes within neighbourhoods were obtained from Victoria Police. In bivariable regression models, all social variables at both the individual and neighbourhood level were positively associated with odds of physical activity, walking, and walking in one’s own neighbourhood. Associations with individual social participation (associated with all three physical activity variables) and neighbourhood interpersonal trust (associated with overall physical activity only) remained significant in multivariable models. Neither neighbourhood crime against the person nor incivilities were associated with any form of physical activity. These results demonstrate that women who participated in local groups or events and, less consistently, women living in neighbourhoods where residents trusted one another, were more likely to participate in leisure-time physical activity. While redressing macro-level social and economic policies that contribute to neighbourhood inequalities remains a priority, public health initiatives aimed at promoting physical activity could consider focusing on fostering social interactions targeting both individuals and communities. Further investigation of causal mechanisms underlying these associations is required.

Hearing in athletes with intellectual disabilities : the need for improved ear care

Background The Special Olympics offer the opportunity for athletes with intellectual disabilities to participate in a range of sports at regional, national and international level. A parallel Healthy Athletes programme was introduced to ensure safety at the games but also to collect data on the health needs of those with intellectual disabilities (ID).

Method This study reports on the introduction of a hearing screen for the first time at national games in Great Britain. Given the availability of free local healthcare it was unclear whether the screen would simply duplicate services already accessed locally.

Results Of the 996 athletes who went though the hearing screen 40% were identified with a previously unrecognised hearing loss, 52% required medical ear care and 43% required wax removal. Despite complex competing stimuli within the screening area only 15 of the subjects were unable to complete the full screen. Local clinical services are carried out in more controlled environments therefore it is reasonable to presume that it would be possible for them to provide assessment of ear care and ongoing audiological assessments where needed. It was found that carers and sports coaches were generally unaware of the hearing needs of the athletes, in spite of the fact that they worked so closely with them.

Conclusions The importance of imparting information to carers and coaches, together with the need for access to regular ear care locally is underlined in this study.

Comparing different economic linkages among commodity futures

Gasoline (GA) and kerosene (KO) are extracted from crude oil (CO), such that the three fuel commodities share a chemical link. On the other hand, GA also shares an industrial link with natural rubber (NR) and palladium (PA) as complementary commodities that are heavily consumed by the automobile industry. We contrast the information content embedded in the two economic linkages. Focusing on TOCOM futures contracts written on the five commodities and centering on GA, we confirm that incremental information provided by either CO, KO or NR, PA over a buy-and-hold strategy and a naive forecast, are both statistically and economically significant. While the chemical link forecast is more profitable, a double-link forecast generated from a VECM with two cointegrating vectors (KO-GA and GANR prices) outperforms both single-link forecasts based on risk-adjusted profit net of transaction costs. Further comparisons against the profitability of commodity-based momentum strategies documented in Erb and Harvey (2006) and Miffre and Rallis (2007) show that the double-link forecast holds its own against the most profitable of the 75 momentum strategies considered. This strongly suggests that not only are there incremental profits to be gained from harnessing and combining economic links among commodity futures, the resultant incremental profits are economically significant against other proven commodity-based trading strategies in the existing literature.

Foreign direct investment and exports : the experiences of Vietnam

We examined the implementation statuses of a total of 5,919 foreign direct investment (FDI) projects approved by the Vietnamese Ministry of Planning and Investment since 1988, and compiled a database of actually disbursed FDI in Vietnam. The database covers FDI flows into Vietnam from 23 countries from 1990 to 2004. Using the data, we analyzed the impact of FDI on the exports of Vietnam with gravity equations. The empirical results demonstrate that FDI is one of the major factors driving the rapid export growth of Vietnam. It has significantly facilitated the expansion of Vietnam's exports to FDI source countries. In particular, the empirical analysis shows that a 1 percent increase in FDI inflows will be expected to give rise to a 0.13 percent increase in Vietnam's exports to these countries.

Restrictive interventions for people with a disability exhibiting challenging behaviours : analysis of a population database

Background: People with an intellectual disability whose behaviours are perceived to be of serious harm to themselves or others are at risk of being subjected to restrictive interventions. Prevalence rates are difficult to determine, as most research is unable to draw on the results of population-level data.

Method: The current study reports on the use of chemical and mechanical restraint and seclusion in the State of Victoria, Australia, over a 12-month period.

Results: The majority of people included were subjected to chemical restraint. The use of restraint was found to be routine rather than a strategy of last resort. Consistent with findings in the UK and USA, those subjected to restrictive interventions were more likely to be young males with multiple disabilities, including autism.

Conclusions: Systemic policy and procedural developments are needed to address current use of restrictive interventions, together with a longitudinal study to evaluate the effectiveness, of alternative, non-restrictive strategies.

Workforce drug testing : a critique and reframing

This article aims to stimulate re-engagement with workforce drug testing as a current managerial technology emerging in UK organisations and not solely confined to the US. Drawing on sociological, labour process and wider organization studies literature, it reconceptualises assumptions about managerial ideology, employee agency and drug user’s subjectivity.

Low-frequency volatility of yen interest rate swap market in relation to macroeconomic risk

Using ‘low-frequency’ volatility extracted from aggregate volatility shocks in interest rate swap (hereafter, IRS) market, this paper investigates whether Japanese yen IRS volatility can be explained by macroeconomic risks. The analysis suggests that this low-frequency yen IRS volatility has strong and positive association with most of the macroeconomic risk proxies (e.g., volatility of consumer price index, industrial production volatility, foreign exchange volatility, slope of the term structure and money supply) with the exception of the unemployment rate, which is negatively related to IRS volatility. This finding is fairly consistent with the argument that the greater the macroeconomic risk the greater is the use of derivative instruments to hedge or speculate. The relationship between the macroeconomic risks and IRS volatility varies slightly across the different swap maturities but is robust to alternative volatility specifications. This linkage between swap market and macroeconomy has practical implications since market makers and hedgers use the swap rate as benchmark for pricing long-term interest rates, corporate bonds and various other securities.

Clinical audit, guidelines and standards : a productive relation for managing clinical practices

This paper contributes to the knowledge about the process of standardisation within the domain of medicine. Standardisation has become an important form of governance and co-ordination, and there is limited empirical knowledge about its nature and consequences (Brunsson et al., 2000). This paper aims to explore the development, circulation and standardisation process of a specific clinical audit programme: the Scottish Hip Fracture Audit. This audit started as a local initiative and now has developed into a sophisticated arena (Sahlin-Andersson, 2000) which provides Scottish hospitals with monthly ‘real-time reports’ outlining their performance against Scottish government targets. The paper argues that the interrelation between clinical audit and evidence-based medicine (EBM) can become a ‘productive relation’ (Mykhalovskiy, 2003), that opens up spaces of intervention, in which the clinical communities engage with processes of change of clinical procedures, and in these spaces, clinicians and managers are in a position to refine clinical practice and service organisation, to reflect upon their own actions and to allow insight into the rationalities of their work (Berg, 1997).