Can we explain the dynamics of the UK FTSE 100 stock and stock index futures markets?

If stock and stock index futures markets are functioning properly price movements in these markets should best be described by a first order vector error correction model with the error correction term being the price differential between the two markets (the basis). Recent evidence suggests that there are more dynamics present than should be in effectively functioning markets. Using self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) models, this study analyses whether such dynamics can be related to different regimes within which the basis can fluctuate in a predictable manner without triggering arbitrage. These findings reveal that the basis shows strong evidence of autoregressive behaviour when its value is between the two thresholds but that the extra dynamics disappear once the basis moves above the upper threshold and their persistence is reduced, although not eradicated, once the basis moves below the lower threshold. This suggests that once nonlinearity associated with transactions costs is accounted for, stock and stock index futures markets function more effectively than is suggested by linear models of the pricing relationship.

A randomised crossover study investigating the effects of galacto-oligosaccharides on the faecal microbiota in men and women over 50 years of age

Faecal microbial changes associated with ageing include reduced bifidobacteria numbers. These changes coincide with an increased risk of disease development. Prebiotics have been observed to increase bifidobacteria numbers within humans. The present study aimed to determine if prebiotic galacto-oligosaccharides (GOS) could benefit a population of men and women of 50 years and above, through modulation of faecal microbiota, fermentation characteristics and faecal water genotoxicity. A total of thirty-seven volunteers completed this randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled crossover trial. The treatments – juice containing 4 g GOS and placebo – were consumed twice daily for 3 weeks, preceded by 3-week washout periods. To study the effect of GOS on different large bowel regions, three-stage continuous culture systems were conducted in parallel using faecal inocula from three volunteers. Faecal samples were microbially enumerated by quantitative PCR. In vivo, following GOS intervention, bifidobacteria were significantly more compared to post-placebo (P = 0·02). Accordingly, GOS supplementation had a bifidogenic effect in all in vitro system vessels. Furthermore, in vessel 1 (similar to the proximal colon), GOS fermentation led to more lactobacilli and increased butyrate. No changes in faecal water genotoxicity were observed. To conclude, GOS supplementation significantly increased bifidobacteria numbers in vivo and in vitro. Increased butyrate production and elevated bifidobacteria numbers may constitute beneficial modulation of the gut microbiota in a maturing population.

Biases in the distribution of bilateral aid: a regional decomposition analysis

This article investigates income and population biases in the distribution of aid and decomposes recipients by geographic region. Previous analyses aggregate recipients and assume biases have an equal impact. Results demonstrate that although while a bias towards middle-income and medium-sized countries persists in the full sample, the extent of such biases differs significantly by region.

Gut microbiota modulate the metabolism of brown adipose tissue in mice

A two by two experimental study has been designed to determine the effect of gut microbiota on energy metabolism in mouse models. The metabolic phenotype of germ-free (GF, n = 20) and conventional (n = 20) mice was characterized using a NMR spectroscopy-based metabolic profiling approach, with a focus on sexual dimorphism (20 males, 20 females) and energy metabolism in urine, plasma, liver, and brown adipose tissue (BAT). Physiological data of age-matched GF and conventional mice showed that male animals had a higher weight than females in both groups. In addition, conventional males had a significantly higher total body fat content (TBFC) compared to conventional females, whereas this sexual dimorphism disappeared in GF animals (i.e., male GF mice had a TBFC similar to those of conventional and GF females). Profiling of BAT hydrophilic extracts revealed that sexual dimorphism in normal mice was absent in GF animals, which also displayed lower BAT lactate levels and higher levels of (D)-3-hydroxybutyrate in liver, plasma, and BAT, together with lower circulating levels of VLDL. These data indicate that the gut microbiota modulate the lipid metabolism in BAT, as the absence of gut microbiota stimulated both hepatic and BAT lipolysis while inhibiting lipogenesis. We also demonstrated that (1)H NMR metabolic profiles of BAT were excellent predictors of BW and TBFC, indicating the potential of BAT to fight against obesity.

Combined transcriptomic-(1)H NMR metabonomic study reveals yhat monoethylhexyl phthalate stimulates adipogenesis and glyceroneogenesis in human adipocytes

Adipose tissue is a major storage site for lipophilic environmental contaminants. The environmental metabolic disruptor hypothesis postulates that some pollutants can promote obesity or metabolic disorders by activating nuclear receptors involved in the control of energetic homeostasis. In this context, monoethylhexyl phthalate (MEHP) is of particular concern since it was shown to activate the peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor γ (PPARγ) in 3T3-L1 murine preadipocytes. In the present work, we used an untargeted, combined transcriptomic-(1)H NMR-based metabonomic approach to describe the overall effect of MEHP on primary cultures of human subcutaneous adipocytes differentiated in vitro. MEHP stimulated rapidly and selectively the expression of genes involved in glyceroneogenesis, enhanced the expression of the cytosolic phosphoenolpyruvate carboxykinase, and reduced fatty acid release. These results demonstrate that MEHP increased glyceroneogenesis and fatty acid reesterification in human adipocytes. A longer treatment with MEHP induced the expression of genes involved in triglycerides uptake, synthesis, and storage; decreased intracellular lactate, glutamine, and other amino acids; increased aspartate and NAD, and resulted in a global increase in triglycerides. Altogether, these results indicate that MEHP promoted the differentiation of human preadipocytes to adipocytes. These mechanisms might contribute to the suspected obesogenic effect of MEHP.

Analysis of time-related metabolic fluctuations induced by ethionine in the rat

The time-course of metabolic events following response to a model hepatotoxin ethionine (800 mg/kg) was investigated over a 7 day period in rats using high-resolution (1)H NMR spectroscopic analysis of urine and multivariate statistics. Complementary information was obtained by multivariate analysis of (1)H MAS NMR spectra of intact liver and by conventional histopathology and clinical chemistry of blood plasma. (1)H MAS NMR spectra of liver showed toxin-induced lipidosis 24 h postdose consistent with the steatosis observed by histopathology, while hypertaurinuria was suggestive of liver injury. Early biochemical changes in urine included elevation of guanidinoacetate, suggesting impaired methylation reactions. Urinary increases in 5-oxoproline and glycine suggested disruption of the gamma-glutamyl cycle. Signs of ATP depletion together with impairment of the energy metabolism were given from the decreased levels in tricarboxylic acid cycle intermediates, the appearance of ketone bodies in urine, the depletion of hepatic glucose and glycogen, and also hypoglycemia. The observed increase in nicotinuric acid in urine could be an indication of an increase in NAD catabolism, a possible consequence of ATP depletion. Effects on the gut microbiota were suggested by the observed urinary reductions in the microbial metabolites 3-/4-hydroxyphenyl propionic acid, dimethylamine, and tryptamine. At later stages of toxicity, there was evidence of kidney damage, as indicated by the tubular damage observed by histopathology, supported by increased urinary excretion of lactic acid, amino acids, and glucose. These studies have given new insights into mechanisms of ethionine-induced toxicity and show the value of multisystem level data integration in the understanding of experimental models of toxicity or disease.