A regime view of the North Atlantic Oscillation and its response to anthropogenic forcing

The distribution of the daily wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index in the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) is significantly negatively skewed. Dynamical and statistical analyses both suggest that this skewness reflects the presence of two distinct regimes—referred to as “Greenland blocking” and “subpolar jet.” Changes in both the relative occurrence and in the structure of the regimes are shown to contribute to the long-term NAO trend over the ERA-40 period. This is contrasted with the simulation of the NAO in 100-yr control and doubled CO2 integrations of the third climate configuration of the Met Office Unified Model (HadCM3). The model has clear deficiencies in its simulation of the NAO in the control run, so its predictions of future behavior must be treated with caution. However, the subpolar jet regime does become more dominant under anthropogenic forcing and, while this change is small it is clearly statistically significant and does represent a real change in the nature of NAO variability in the model.

Threshold effects in price transmission: The case of Brazilian wheat, maize, and soya prices

Recent studies into price transmission have recognized the important role played by transport and transaction costs. Threshold models are one approach to accommodate such costs. We develop a generalized Threshold Error Correction Model to test for the presence and form of threshold behavior in price transmission that is symmetric around equilibrium. We use monthly wheat, maize, and soya prices from the United States, Argentina, and Brazil to demonstrate this model. Classical estimation of these generalized models can present challenges but Bayesian techniques avoid many of these problems. Evidence for thresholds is found in three of the five commodity price pairs investigated.

The role of flower inclination, depth, and height in the preferences of a pollinating beetle (Coleoptera : Glaphyridae)

Amphicoma ( Glaphyridae) beetles are important pollinators of red bowl-shaped flowers in the Mediterranean. The role of color and shape in flower choice is well studied but the roles of inclination, depth, and height have seldom been investigated. Under field conditions, models were used to experimentally manipulate these three characters and visitation rates of beetles were recorded. Models with red horizontal surfaces were visited significantly more often than models with red vertical surfaces. Shallow flower models were visited significantly more than deeper equivalents. Models below or at the height of natural flower populations elicited significantly more landings than models above the height of flowers. Inclination, depth, and height characteristics are all likely to be important components in the flower preferences exhibited by pollinating beetles.

Aphidius ervi preferentially attacks the green morph of the pea aphid, Acyrthosiphon pisum

The pea aphid, Acyrthosiphon pisum Harris (Hemiptera: Aphididae) is found in red and green color morphs. Previous work has suggested that the aphidiine parasitoid Aphidius ervi Haliday preferentially attacks green pea aphids in the field. It is not clear whether these results reflect a real preference, or some unknown clonal difference, such as in immunity, between the aphids used in the previous studies. We used three susceptibility-matched pairs of red and green morph pea aphid clones to test for preferences. In a no-choice situation, the parasitoids attacked equal proportions of each color morph. When provided with a choice, A. ervi was significantly more likely to oviposit into colonies formed from green morphs when the neighboring colony was formed from red morph aphids. In contrast, red morphs were less likely to be attacked when their neighboring colony was of the green morph. By preferentially attacking green colonies, A. ervi may reduce the likelihood of intraguild predation, as it is suggested that visually foraging predators preferentially attack red aphid colonies. Furthermore, if this host choice behavior is replicated in the field, we speculate that color morphs of the pea aphid may interact indirectly through their shared natural enemies, leading to intraspecific apparent competition.

An investigation into the mechanics of cutting using data from orthogonally cutting Nylon 66

Cutting force data for Nylon 66 has been examined in terms of various different models of cutting. Theory that includes significant work of separation at the tool tip was found to give the best correlation with experimental data over a wide range of rake angles for derived primary shear plane angle. A fracture toughness parameter was used as the measure of the specific work of separation. Variation in toughness with rake angle determined from cutting is postulated to be caused by mixed mode separation at the tool tip. A rule of mixtures using independently determined values of toughness in tension (mode 1) and shear (mode 11) is found to describe well the variation with rake angle. The ratio of modes varies with rake angle and, in turn, with the primary shear plane angle. Previous suggestions that cutting is a means of experimentally determining fracture toughness are now seen to be extended to identify the mode of fracture toughness as well.

Characterisation of blends based on hydroxyethylcellulose and maleic acid-alt-methyl vinyl ether

Hydrophilic polymeric films based on blends of hydroxyethylcellulose and maleic acid-co-methyl vinyl ether were produced by casting from aqueous solutions. The physicochemical properties of the blends have been assessed using Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, thermal gravimetric analysis, differential scanning calorimetry, dielectric spectroscopy, etc. The pristine films exhibit complete miscibility due to the formation of intermacromolecular hydrogen bonding. The thermal treatment of the blend films leads to cross-linking via intermacromolecular esterification and anhydride formation. The cross-linked materials are able to swell in water and their swelling degree can be easily controlled by temperature and thermal treatment time. The formation of the crosslinks is apparent in the dynamic properties of the blends as observed through the mechanical relaxation and dielectric relaxation spectra. The dielectric characteristics of the material are influenced by the effects of change in the local structure of the blend on the ionic conduction processes and the rate of dipolar relaxation. Separation of these processes is attempted using the dielectric modulus method. Significant deviations from a simple additive rule of mixing on the activation energy are observed consistent with hydrogen bonding and crosslinking of the matrix. This paper indicates a method for the creation of films with good mechanical and physical characteristics by exposing the blends to a relatively mild thermal treatment.

Risk taking from the participant's perspective: the case of driving and accident risk

Although perceived health risk plays a prominent role in theories of health behavior, its empirical role in risk taking is less clear. In Study 1 (N = 129), 2 measures of drivers' risk-taking behavior were found to be unrelated to self-estimates of accident concern but to be related to self-ratings of driving skill and the perceived thrill of driving. In Study 2 (N = 405), out of a wide range of potential influences, accident concern had the weakest relationship with risk taking. The authors concluded that although health risk is a key feature in many theories of health behavior and a central focus for researchers and policy makers, it may not be such a prominent factor for those actually taking the risk.

Infant-mother attachment and the growth of externalizing problems across the primary-school years

Background:  Some contend that attachment insecurity increases risk for the development of externalizing behavior problems in children. Method:  Latent-growth curve analyses were applied to data on 1,364 children from the NICHD Study of Early Child Care to evaluate the association between early attachment and teacher-rated externalizing problems across the primary-school years. Results:  Findings indicate that (a) both avoidant and disorganized attachment predict higher levels of externalizing problems but (b) that effects of disorganized attachment are moderated by family cumulative contextual risk, child gender and child age, with disorganized boys from risky social contexts manifesting increases in behavior problems over time. Conclusions:  These findings highlight the potentially conditional role of early attachment in children’s externalizing behavior problems and the need for further research evaluating causation and mediating mechanisms.

Expert system aid for design of overload line distribution networks

The use of expert system techniques in power distribution system design is examined. The selection and siting of equipment on overhead line networks is chosen for investigation as the use of equipment such as auto-reclosers, etc., represents a substantial investment and has a significant effect on the reliability of the system. Through past experience with both equipment and network operations, most decisions in selection and siting of this equipment are made intuitively, following certain general guidelines or rules of thumb. This heuristic nature of the problem lends itself to solution using an expert system approach. A prototype has been developed and is currently under evaluation in the industry. Results so far have demonstrated both the feasibility and benefits of the expert system as a design aid.

FACSGen: a tool to synthesize emotional facial expressions through systematic manipulation of facial action units

To investigate the perception of emotional facial expressions, researchers rely on shared sets of photos or videos, most often generated by actor portrayals. The drawback of such standardized material is a lack of flexibility and controllability, as it does not allow the systematic parametric manipulation of specific features of facial expressions on the one hand, and of more general properties of the facial identity (age, ethnicity, gender) on the other. To remedy this problem, we developed FACSGen: a novel tool that allows the creation of realistic synthetic 3D facial stimuli, both static and dynamic, based on the Facial Action Coding System. FACSGen provides researchers with total control over facial action units, and corresponding informational cues in 3D synthetic faces. We present four studies validating both the software and the general methodology of systematically generating controlled facial expression patterns for stimulus presentation.

Towards an improved understanding of farmers' behaviour: the integrative agent-centred (IAC) framework

An effective approach to research on farmers' behaviour is based on: i) an explicit and well-motivated behavioural theory; ii) an integrative approach; and iii) understanding feedback processes and dynamics. While current approaches may effectively tackle some of them, they often fail to combine them together. The paper presents the integrative agent-centred (IAC) framework, which aims at filling this gap. It functions in accordance with these three pillars and provides a conceptual structure to understand farmers' behaviour in agricultural systems. The IAC framework is agent-centred and supports the understanding of farmers' behavior consistently with the perspective of agricultural systems as complex social-ecological systems. It combines different behavioural drivers, bridges between micro and macro levels, and depicts a potentially varied model of human agency. The use of the framework in practice is illustrated through two studies on pesticide use among smallholders in Colombia. The examples show how the framework can be implemented to derive policy implications to foster a transition towards more sustainable agricultural practices. The paper finally suggests that the framework can support different research designs for the study of agents' behaviour in agricultural and social-ecological systems.

A micro-level simulation for the prediction of intention and behaviour

In this contribution we aim at anchoring Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) simulations in actual models of human psychology. More specifically, we apply unidirectional ABM to social psychological models using low level agents (i.e., intra-individual) to examine whether they generate better predictions, in comparison to standard statistical approaches, concerning the intentions of performing a behavior and the behavior. Moreover, this contribution tests to what extent the predictive validity of models of attitude such as the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) or Model of Goal-directed Behavior (MGB) depends on the assumption that peoples’ decisions and actions are purely rational. Simulations were therefore run by considering different deviations from rationality of the agents with a trembling hand method. Two data sets concerning respectively the consumption of soft drinks and physical activity were used. Three key findings emerged from the simulations. First, compared to standard statistical approach the agent-based simulation generally improves the prediction of behavior from intention. Second, the improvement in prediction is inversely proportional to the complexity of the underlying theoretical model. Finally, the introduction of varying degrees of deviation from rationality in agents’ behavior can lead to an improvement in the goodness of fit of the simulations. By demonstrating the potential of ABM as a complementary perspective to evaluating social psychological models, this contribution underlines the necessity of better defining agents in terms of psychological processes before examining higher levels such as the interactions between individuals.