The PRINTO criteria for clinically inactive disease in juvenile dermatomyositis.

OBJECTIVES: To develop data-driven criteria for clinically inactive disease on and off therapy for juvenile dermatomyositis (JDM). METHODS: The Paediatric Rheumatology International Trials Organisation (PRINTO) database contains 275 patients with active JDM evaluated prospectively up to 24 months. Thirty-eight patients off therapy at 24 months were defined as clinically inactive and included in the reference group. These were compared with a random sample of 76 patients who had active disease at study baseline. Individual measures of muscle strength/endurance, muscle enzymes, physician's and parent's global disease activity/damage evaluations, inactive disease criteria derived from the literature and other ad hoc criteria were evaluated for sensitivity, specificity and Cohen's κ agreement. RESULTS: The individual measures that best characterised inactive disease (sensitivity and specificity >0.8 and Cohen's κ >0.8) were manual muscle testing (MMT) ≥78, physician global assessment of muscle activity=0, physician global assessment of overall disease activity (PhyGloVAS) ≤0.2, Childhood Myositis Assessment Scale (CMAS) ≥48, Disease Activity Score ≤3 and Myositis Disease Activity Assessment Visual Analogue Scale ≤0.2. The best combination of variables to classify a patient as being in a state of inactive disease on or off therapy is at least three of four of the following criteria: creatine kinase ≤150, CMAS ≥48, MMT ≥78 and PhyGloVAS ≤0.2. After 24 months, 30/31 patients (96.8%) were inactive off therapy and 69/145 (47.6%) were inactive on therapy. CONCLUSION: PRINTO established data-driven criteria with clearly evidence-based cut-off values to identify JDM patients with clinically inactive disease. These criteria can be used in clinical trials, in research and in clinical practice.

Disentangling the effects of key innovations on the diversification of Bromelioideae (bromeliaceae).

The evolution of key innovations, novel traits that promote diversification, is often seen as major driver for the unequal distribution of species richness within the tree of life. In this study, we aim to determine the factors underlying the extraordinary radiation of the subfamily Bromelioideae, one of the most diverse clades among the neotropical plant family Bromeliaceae. Based on an extended molecular phylogenetic data set, we examine the effect of two putative key innovations, that is, the Crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) and the water-impounding tank, on speciation and extinction rates. To this aim, we develop a novel Bayesian implementation of the phylogenetic comparative method, binary state speciation and extinction, which enables hypotheses testing by Bayes factors and accommodates the uncertainty on model selection by Bayesian model averaging. Both CAM and tank habit were found to correlate with increased net diversification, thus fulfilling the criteria for key innovations. Our analyses further revealed that CAM photosynthesis is correlated with a twofold increase in speciation rate, whereas the evolution of the tank had primarily an effect on extinction rates that were found five times lower in tank-forming lineages compared to tank-less clades. These differences are discussed in the light of biogeography, ecology, and past climate change.

Photodynamic therapy enhances liposomal doxorubicin distribution in tumors during isolated perfusion of rodent lungs.

BACKGROUND: Photodynamic therapy (PDT) at low drug-light conditions can enhance the transport of intravenously injected macromolecular therapeutics through the tumor vasculature. Here we determined the impact of PDT on the distribution of liposomal doxorubicin (Liporubicin™) administered by isolated lung perfusion (ILP) in sarcomas grown on rodent lungs. METHODS: A syngeneic methylcholanthrene-induced sarcoma cell line was implanted subpleurally in the left lung of Fischer rats. Treatment schemes consisted in ILP alone (400 μg of Liporubicin), low-dose (0.0625 mg/kg Visudyne®, 10 J/cm(2) and 35 mW/cm(2)) and high-dose left lung PDT (0.125 mg/kg Visudyne, 10 J/cm(2) and 35 mW/cm(2)) followed by ILP (400 μg of Liporubicin). The uptake and distribution of Liporubicin in tumor and lung tissues were determined by high-performance liquid chromatography and fluorescence microscopy in each group. RESULTS: Low-dose PDT significantly improved the distribution of Liporubicin in tumors compared to high-dose PDT (p < 0.05) and ILP alone (p < 0.05). However, both PDT pretreatments did not result in a higher overall drug uptake in tumors or a higher tumor-to-lung drug ratio compared to ILP alone. CONCLUSIONS: Intraoperative low-dose Visudyne-mediated PDT enhances liposomal doxorubicin distribution administered by ILP in sarcomas grown on rodent lungs which is predicted to improve tumor control by ILP.

Consequences of smoking for body weight, body fat distribution, and insulin resistance

Our aim was to critically evaluate the relations among smoking, body weight, body fat distribution, and insulin resistance as reported in the literature. In the short term, nicotine increases energy expenditure and could reduce appetite, which may explain why smokers tend to have lower body weight than do nonsmokers and why smoking cessation is frequently followed by weight gain. In contrast, heavy smokers tend to have greater body weight than do light smokers or nonsmokers, which likely reflects a clustering of risky behaviors (eg, low degree of physical activity, poor diet, and smoking) that is conducive to weight gain. Other factors, such as weight cycling, could also be involved. In addition, smoking increases insulin resistance and is associated with central fat accumulation. As a result, smoking increases the risk of metabolic syndrome and diabetes, and these factors increase risk of cardiovascular disease. In the context of the worldwide obesity epidemic and a high prevalence of smoking, the greater risk of (central) obesity and insulin resistance among smokers is a matter of major concern

Seasonal distribution of a relatively rare and a relatively common species of Thecomyia at Belém, Pará, Brazil (Diptera: Sciomyzidae)

O gênero neotropical Thecomyia (Sciomyzidae) consiste de quatro espécies descritas e onze ainda não descritas (Steyskal & Knutson em preparação), sendo a maioria não muito comum. As espécies são muito próximas e grande número delas somente pode ser separado com base na genitália do macho. Somente é conhecida a biologia e uma espécie, T. limbata (Wiedermann), que, preferentemente, preda moluscos aquáticos (Abercrombie & Berg, 1975). A análise de registros de coletas de espécies relativamente raras e relativamente comuns de Thecomyia (172 especimens do Museu Goeldi coletados em Mocambo, Belém, Pará, Brasil) proporcionam informações sobre a distribuição sazonal de espécies tropicais e sua relativa abundância. Deste material 160 especimens pertencem à T. longicornis Perty e 12 à Thecomyia sp. n. A primeira foi registrada durante todos os meses do ano, mas a espécie nova somente durante junho e dezembro, sugerindo esta última uma população de adultos anual bimodal.

Understanding Liquidity and Credit Risks in the Financial Crisis

This paper develops a structured dynamic factor model for the spreads between London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) and overnight index swap (OIS) rates for a panel of banks. Our model involves latent factors which reflect liquidity and credit risk. Our empirical results show that surges in the short term LIBOR-OIS spreads during the 2007-2009 fi nancial crisis were largely driven by liquidity risk. However, credit risk played a more signifi cant role in the longer term (twelve-month) LIBOR-OIS spread. The liquidity risk factors are more volatile than the credit risk factor. Most of the familiar events in the financial crisis are linked more to movements in liquidity risk than credit risk.

A Producer Theory with Business Risks

In this paper, we consider a producer who faces uninsurable business risks due to incomplete spanning of asset markets over stochastic goods market outcomes, and examine how the presence of the uninsurable business risks affects the producer's optimal pricing and production behaviours. Three key (inter-related) results we find are: (1) optimal prices in goods markets comprise ‘markup’ to the extent of market power and ‘premium’ by shadow price of the risks; (2) price inertia as we observe in data can be explained by a joint work of risk neutralization motive and marginal cost equalization condition; (3) the relative responsiveness of risk neutralization motive and marginal cost equalization at optimum is central to the cyclical variation of markups, providing a consistent explanation for procyclical and countercyclical movements. By these results, the proposed theory of producer leaves important implications both micro and macro, and both empirical and theoretical.

Fusion of Multi-Atlas Segmentations with Spatial Distribution Modeling

In recent years, multi-atlas fusion methods have gainedsignificant attention in medical image segmentation. Inthis paper, we propose a general Markov Random Field(MRF) based framework that can perform edge-preservingsmoothing of the labels at the time of fusing the labelsitself. More specifically, we formulate the label fusionproblem with MRF-based neighborhood priors, as an energyminimization problem containing a unary data term and apairwise smoothness term. We present how the existingfusion methods like majority voting, global weightedvoting and local weighted voting methods can be reframedto profit from the proposed framework, for generatingmore accurate segmentations as well as more contiguoussegmentations by getting rid of holes and islands. Theproposed framework is evaluated for segmenting lymphnodes in 3D head and neck CT images. A comparison ofvarious fusion algorithms is also presented.

Pareto or log-normal? A recursive-truncation approach to the distribution of (all) cities

Traditionally, it is assumed that the population size of cities in a country follows a Pareto distribution. This assumption is typically supported by nding evidence of Zipf's Law. Recent studies question this nding, highlighting that, while the Pareto distribution may t reasonably well when the data is truncated at the upper tail, i.e. for the largest cities of a country, the log-normal distribution may apply when all cities are considered. Moreover, conclusions may be sensitive to the choice of a particular truncation threshold, a yet overlooked issue in the literature. In this paper, then, we reassess the city size distribution in relation to its sensitivity to the choice of truncation point. In particular, we look at US Census data and apply a recursive-truncation approach to estimate Zipf's Law and a non-parametric alternative test where we consider each possible truncation point of the distribution of all cities. Results con rm the sensitivity of results to the truncation point. Moreover, repeating the analysis over simulated data con rms the di culty of distinguishing a Pareto tail from the tail of a log-normal and, in turn, identifying the city size distribution as a false or a weak Pareto law.

The Distribution Dynamics of Output Multipliers in Scotland 1998–2007

In an input-output context the impact of any particular industrial sector is commonly measured in terms of the output multiplier for that industry. Although such measures are routinely calculated and often used to guide regional industrial policy the behaviour of such measures over time is an area that has attracted little academic study. The output multipliers derived from any one table will have a distribution; for some industries the multiplier will be relatively high, for some it will be relatively low. The recentpublication of consistent input-output tables for the Scottish economy makes it possible to examine trends in this mdistribution over the ten year period 1998-2007. This is done by comparing the means and other summary measures of the distributions, the histograms and the cumulative densities. The results indicate a tendency for the multipliers to increase over the period. A Markov chain modelling approach suggests that this drift is a slow but long term phenomenon which appears not to tend to an equilibrium state. The prime reason for the increase in the output multipliers is traced to a decline in the relative importance of imported (both from the rest of the UK and the rest of the world) intermediate inputs used by Scottish industries. This suggests that models calibrated on the set of tables might have to be interpreted with caution.

Observations on the distribution of anophelines in Suriname with particular reference to the malaria vector Anopheles darlingi

A study was made on the distribution of anophelines in Suriname with special emphasis on the principal malaria vector Anopheles darlingi and on the occurrence of other possible vector species. Peridomestic human bait collections of adult mosquitoes and collections of larvae were made in many localities with a recent history of malaria transmission. Stable population of An. darlingi were only found in the interior, south of the limit of tidal influence, due to year-round availability of breeding habitats in quietly sunlit places in flooded forest areas and along river banks. In the area with tidal movement of the rivers, breeding is limited to flooded areas in the west season. Anopheles darlingi was only incidentally collected in low densities. In the interior, malaria transmission occurred in all places where An. darlingi was found. The absence of malaria transmission along the Upper Suriname River could be explained by the absence of An. darlingi. In the malaria endemic areas, An darlingi was the most numerous mosquito biting on man. In the tidal region, malaria outbreak are infrequent and might be explained by the temporary availability of favourable beeding habitats for An. darlingi. However, evidence is insufficient to incriminate an. darlingi as the vector of malaria in this region and the possible vectorial role of other anophelines is discussed.

The Optimal Distribution of the Tax Burden over the Business Cycle

This paper analyses optimal income taxes over the business cycle under a balanced-budget restriction, for low, middle and high income households. A model incorporating capital-skill complementarity in production and differential access to capital and labour markets is developed to capture the cyclical characteristics of the US economy, as well as the empirical observations on wage (skill premium) and wealth inequality. We .nd that the tax rate for high income agents is optimally the least volatile and the tax rate for low income agents the least countercyclical. In contrast, the path of optimal taxes for the middle income group is found to be very volatile and counter-cyclical. We further find that the optimal response to output-enhancing capital equipment technology and spending cuts is to increase the progressivity of income taxes. Finally, in response to positive TFP shocks, taxation becomes more progressive after about two years.

Dominance Solvable Games with Multiple Payoff Criteria.

Two logically distinct and permissive extensions of iterative weak dominance are introduced for games with possibly vector-valued payoffs. The first, iterative partial dominance, builds on an easy-to check condition but may lead to solutions that do not include any (generalized) Nash equilibria. However, the second and intuitively more demanding extension, iterative essential dominance, is shown to be an equilibrium refinement. The latter result includes Moulin’s (1979) classic theorem as a special case when all players’ payoffs are real-valued. Therefore, essential dominance solvability can be a useful solution concept for making sharper predictions in multicriteria games that feature a plethora of equilibria.

Origine des populations de rainette verte (Hyla spp.) de l'ouest de la Suisse

DNA-based techniques are important tools for species assignment, in particular when identification with morphological criteria is difficult. The aim of this study was to genetically determine the species identity of tree frogs (Hyla spp.) populations from western and northern Switzerland (Swiss Plateau), this area being frequently subjected to introductions of species or sub-species from south of the Alps. We sequenced 261 base pairs of the mitochondrial DNA cytochrome b gene from 24 samples of tree frogs from the Swiss Plateau, Ticino (southern Switzerland) and the Dombes region (Ain, France), and compared them with homologous sequences retrieved from DNA databases. The phylogenetic analyses revealed two distinct clades. The first one is represented by samples of Green tree frog (Hyla arborea) from the Swiss Plateau, France, Germany and Greece, confirming the current knowledge about the species' distribution. The second clade includes samples belonging to the Italian tree frog (Hyla intermedia) from south of the Alps (Ticino and Italy), and unexpectedly from the Grangettes site in western Switzerland. These results suggest the introduction of the Italian tree frog H. intermedia north of the Alps, and raise questions about the management of the Grangettes protected area.