Multinomial goodness-of-fit: large sample tests with survey design correction and exact tests for small samples

A new Stata command called -mgof- is introduced. The command is used to compute distributional tests for discrete (categorical, multinomial) variables. Apart from classic large sample $\chi^2$-approximation tests based on Pearson's $X^2$, the likelihood ratio, or any other statistic from the power-divergence family (Cressie and Read 1984), large sample tests for complex survey designs and exact tests for small samples are supported. The complex survey correction is based on the approach by Rao and Scott (1981) and parallels the survey design correction used for independence tests in -svy:tabulate-. The exact tests are computed using Monte Carlo methods or exhaustive enumeration. An exact Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for discrete data is also provided.

DVD-based distance-learning program for university entrance exams -- RCT experiments in rural Bangladesh

In contrast to the remarkable progress in developing countries in improving primary education, access to higher education in many countries remains limited, especially in rural areas where the quality of education is inadequate. We evaluate a DVD-based distance-learning program in rural Bangladesh, targeted at students aiming to take university entrance tests. We conducted two experiments: one to evaluate the effect of the distance-learning program and the second to determine the demand and price sensitivity. Our first experiment shows that the DVD-based distance-learning program has a considerable positive effect on the number of students passing entrance exams. This effect does not depend on cognitive scores, but does depend on non-cognitive attributes, indicating the importance of commitment, which is imposed through our program. In the second experiment, we offered a random subsidy to interested participants. The uptake decision is price-sensitive, although the price sensitivity is not correlated with students' past academic performance or their socio-economic status, suggesting that increasing the price should not disproportionately exclude poor students.

Electric Motor Life Estimate Based on Statistic Data

Many different methods based on both planned inspection and health inspection for estimate of electrical equipment health are used. The estimation method of residual life of electric motors by their health in pulp and paper industry is considered.

Sur les tests lisses d'ajustement dans le context des series chronologiques

La plupart des modèles en statistique classique repose sur une hypothèse sur la distribution des données ou sur une distribution sous-jacente aux données. La validité de cette hypothèse permet de faire de l’inférence, de construire des intervalles de confiance ou encore de tester la fiabilité du modèle. La problématique des tests d’ajustement vise à s’assurer de la conformité ou de la cohérence de l’hypothèse avec les données disponibles. Dans la présente thèse, nous proposons des tests d’ajustement à la loi normale dans le cadre des séries chronologiques univariées et vectorielles. Nous nous sommes limités à une classe de séries chronologiques linéaires, à savoir les modèles autorégressifs à moyenne mobile (ARMA ou VARMA dans le cas vectoriel). Dans un premier temps, au cas univarié, nous proposons une généralisation du travail de Ducharme et Lafaye de Micheaux (2004) dans le cas où la moyenne est inconnue et estimée. Nous avons estimé les paramètres par une méthode rarement utilisée dans la littérature et pourtant asymptotiquement efficace. En effet, nous avons rigoureusement montré que l’estimateur proposé par Brockwell et Davis (1991, section 10.8) converge presque sûrement vers la vraie valeur inconnue du paramètre. De plus, nous fournissons une preuve rigoureuse de l’inversibilité de la matrice des variances et des covariances de la statistique de test à partir de certaines propriétés d’algèbre linéaire. Le résultat s’applique aussi au cas où la moyenne est supposée connue et égale à zéro. Enfin, nous proposons une méthode de sélection de la dimension de la famille d’alternatives de type AIC, et nous étudions les propriétés asymptotiques de cette méthode. L’outil proposé ici est basé sur une famille spécifique de polynômes orthogonaux, à savoir les polynômes de Legendre. Dans un second temps, dans le cas vectoriel, nous proposons un test d’ajustement pour les modèles autorégressifs à moyenne mobile avec une paramétrisation structurée. La paramétrisation structurée permet de réduire le nombre élevé de paramètres dans ces modèles ou encore de tenir compte de certaines contraintes particulières. Ce projet inclut le cas standard d’absence de paramétrisation. Le test que nous proposons s’applique à une famille quelconque de fonctions orthogonales. Nous illustrons cela dans le cas particulier des polynômes de Legendre et d’Hermite. Dans le cas particulier des polynômes d’Hermite, nous montrons que le test obtenu est invariant aux transformations affines et qu’il est en fait une généralisation de nombreux tests existants dans la littérature. Ce projet peut être vu comme une généralisation du premier dans trois directions, notamment le passage de l’univarié au multivarié ; le choix d’une famille quelconque de fonctions orthogonales ; et enfin la possibilité de spécifier des relations ou des contraintes dans la formulation VARMA. Nous avons procédé dans chacun des projets à une étude de simulation afin d’évaluer le niveau et la puissance des tests proposés ainsi que de les comparer aux tests existants. De plus des applications aux données réelles sont fournies. Nous avons appliqué les tests à la prévision de la température moyenne annuelle du globe terrestre (univarié), ainsi qu’aux données relatives au marché du travail canadien (bivarié). Ces travaux ont été exposés à plusieurs congrès (voir par exemple Tagne, Duchesne et Lafaye de Micheaux (2013a, 2013b, 2014) pour plus de détails). Un article basé sur le premier projet est également soumis dans une revue avec comité de lecture (Voir Duchesne, Lafaye de Micheaux et Tagne (2016)).

Group-Based Symptom Trajectories in Indicated Prevention of Adolescent Depression

Background: Adolescent depression prevention research has focused on mean intervention outcomes, but has not considered heterogeneity in symptom course. Here, we empirically identify subgroups with distinct trajectories of depressive symptom change among adolescents enrolled in two indicated depression preven- tion trials and examine how cognitive-behavioral (CB) interventions and baseline predictors relate to trajectory membership. Methods: Six hundred thirty-one participants were assigned to one of three conditions: CB group intervention, CB bibliotherapy, and brochure control. We used group-based trajectory modeling to identify trajectories of depressive symptoms from pretest to 2-year follow-up. We examined associations between class membership and conditions using chi- square tests and baseline predictors using multinomial regressions. Results: We identified four trajectories in the full sample. Qualitatively similar trajectories were found in each condition separately. Two trajectories of positive symptom course (low-declining, high-declining) had declining symptoms and were dis- tinguished by baseline symptom severity. Two trajectories of negative course (high-persistent, resurging), respectively, showed no decline in symptoms or de- cline followed by symptom reappearance. Participants in the brochure control condition were significantly more likely to populate the high-persistent trajectory relative to either CB condition and were significantly less likely to populate the low-declining trajectory relative to CB group. Several baseline factors predicted trajectory classes, but gender was the most informative prognostic factor, with males having increased odds of membership in a high-persistent trajectory rel- ative to other trajectories. Conclusions: Findings suggest that CB preventive interventions do not alter the nature of trajectories, but reduce the risk that adolescents follow a trajectory of chronically elevated symptoms.

Shell-based chronologies for the Irish Sea

We demonstrate here that the growth increment variability in the shell of the long-lived bivalve mollusc Arctica islandica can be interpreted as an indicator of marine environmental change in the climatically important North Atlantic shelf seas. Multi-centennial (up to 489-year) chronologies were constructed using five detrending techniques and their characteristics compared. The strength of the common environmental signal expressed in the chronologies was found to be fully comparable with equivalent statistics for tree-ring chronologies. The negative exponential function using truncated increment-width series from which the first thirty years have been removed was chosen as the optimal detrending technique. Chronology indices were compared with the Central England Temperature record and with seawater temperature records from stations close to the study site in the Irish Sea. Statistically significant correlations were found between the chronology indices and (a) mean air temperature for the 14-month period beginning in the January preceding the year of growth, (b) mean seawater temperatures for February-October in the year preceding the year of growth (c) late summer and autumn air temperatures and sea surface temperatures for the year of growth and (d) the timing of the autumn decline in SST. Changes through time in the correlations with air and seawater temperatures and changes towards a deeper water origin for the shells in the chronology were interpreted as an indication that shell growth may respond to stratification dynamics.

Feasibility of carrier-based fitness-for-duty testing of commercial drivers. Final report.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Office of Crash Avoidance, Washington, D.C.

Functionally partitioned module-based programmable architecture for wireless base-band processing

A specialised reconfigurable architecture is targeted at wireless base-band processing. It is built to cater for multiple wireless standards. It has lower power consumption than the processor-based solution. It can be scaled to run in parallel for processing multiple channels. Test resources are embedded on the architecture and testing strategies are included. This architecture is functionally partitioned according to the common operations found in wireless standards, such as CRC error correction, convolution and interleaving. These modules are linked via Virtual Wire Hardware modules and route-through switch matrices. Data can be processed in any order through this interconnect structure. Virtual Wire ensures the same flexibility as normal interconnects, but the area occupied and the number of switches needed is reduced. The testing algorithm scans all possible paths within the interconnection network exhaustively and searches for faults in the processing modules. The testing algorithm starts by scanning the externally addressable memory space and testing the master controller. The controller then tests every switch in the route-through switch matrix by making loops from the shared memory to each of the switches. The local switch matrix is also tested in the same way. Next the local memory is scanned. Finally, pre-defined test vectors are loaded into local memory to check the processing modules. This paper compares various base-band processing solutions. It describes the proposed platform and its implementation. It outlines the test resources and algorithm. It concludes with the mapping of Bluetooth and GSM base-band onto the platform.

Long-term in vivo biostability of poly(dimethylsiloxane) / poly(hexamethylene oxide) mixed macrodiol-based polyurethane elastomers

The long-term biostability of a novel thermoplastic polyurethane elastomer (Elast-Eon(TM) 2 80A) synthesized using poly(hexamethylene oxide) (PHMO) and poly(dimethylsiloxane) (PDMS) macrodiols has been studied using an in vivo ovine model. The material's biostability was compared with that of three commercially available control materials, Pellethane(R) 2363-80A, Pellethane(R) 2363-55D and Bionate(R) 55D, after subcutaneous implantation of strained compression moulded flat sheet dumbbells in sheep for periods ranging from 3 to 24 months. Scanning electron microscopy, attenuated total reflectance-Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy were used to assess changes in the surface chemical structure and morphology of the materials. Gel permeation chromatography, differential scanning calorimetry and tensile testing were used to examine changes in bulk characteristics of the materials. The results showed that the biostability of the soft flexible PDMS-based test polyurethane was significantly better than the control material of similar softness, Pellethane(R) 80A, and as good as or better than both of the harder commercially available negative control polyurethanes. Pellethane(R) 55D and Bionate(R) 55D. Changes observed in the surface of the Pellethane(R) materials were consistent with oxidation of the aliphatic polyether soft segment and hydrolysis of the urethane bonds joining hard to soft segment with degradation in Pellethane(R) 80A significantly more severe than that observed in Pellethane(R) 55D. Very minor changes were seen on the surfaces of the Elast-Eon(TM) 2 80A and Bionate(R) 55D materials. There was a general trend of molecular weight decreasing with time across all polymers and the molecular weights of all materials decreased at a similar relative rate. The polydispersity ratio, M-w/M-n, increased with time for all materials. Tensile tests indicated that UTS increased in Elast-Eon(TM) 2 80A and Bionate(R) 55D following implantation under strained conditions. However, ultimate strain decreased and elastic modulus increased in the explanted specimens of all three materials when compared with their unimplanted unstrained counterparts. The results indicate that a soft, flexible PDMS-based polyurethane synthesized using 20% PHMO and 80% PDMS macrodiols has excellent long-term biostability compared with commercially available polyurethanes. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Colorectal cancer screening in Australia: an economic evaluation of a potential biennial screening program using faecal occult blood tests

Objective: To evaluate whether the introduction of a national, co-ordinated screening program using the faecal occult blood test represents 'value-for-money' from the perspective of the Australian Government as third-party funder. Methods: The annual equivalent costs and consequences of a biennial screening program in 'steady-state' operation were estimated for the Australian population using 1996 as the reference year. Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and the years of life lost (YLLs) averted, and the health service costs were modelled, based on the epidemiology and the costs of colorectal cancer in Australia together with the mortality reduction achieved in randomised controlled trials. Uncertainty in the model was examined using Monte Carlo simulation methods. Results: We estimate a minimum or 'base program' of screening those aged 55 to 69 years could avert 250 deaths per annum (95% uncertainty interval 99-400), at a gross cost of $A55 million (95% UI $A46 million to $A96 million) and a gross incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $A17,000/DALY (95% UI $A13,000/DALY to $A52,000/DALY). Extending the program to include 70 to 74-year-olds is a more effective option (cheaper and higher health gain) than including the 50 to 54-year-olds. Conclusions: The findings of this study support the case for a national program directed at the 55 to 69-year-old age group with extension to 70 to 74-year-olds if there are sufficient resources. The pilot tests recently announced in Australia provide an important opportunity to consider the age range for screening and the sources of uncertainty, identified in the modelled evaluation, to assist decisions on implementing a full national program.

Community-based interventions for the prevention of burns and scalds in children

Background Burns and scalds are a significant cause of morbidity and mortality in children. Successful counter-measures to prevent burn and scald-related injury have been identified. However, evidence indicating the successful roll-out of these counter-measures into the wider community is lacking. Community-based interventions in the form of multi-strategy, multi-focused programmes are hypothesised to result in a reduction in population-wide injury rates. This review tests this hypothesis with regards to burn and scald injury in children. Objectives To assess the effects of community-based interventions, defined as coordinated, multi-strategy initiatives, for reducing burns and scalds in children aged 14 years and under. Search strategy We searched the Cochrane Injuries Group's specialised register, CENTRAL, MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, PsycINFO, National Research Register and the Web of Knowledge. We also handsearched selected journals and checked the reference lists of selected publications. The searches were last updated in May 2007. Selection criteria Included studies were those that reported changes in medically attended burn and scald-related injury rates in a paediatric population (aged 14 years and under), following the implementation of a controlled community-based intervention. Data collection and analysis Two authors independently assess studies for eligibility and extracted data. Due to heterogeneity between the included studies, a pooled analysis was not appropriate. Main results Of 39 identified studies, four met the criteria for inclusion. Two of the included studies reported a significant decrease in paediatric burn and scald injury in the intervention compared with the control communities. The failure of the other two studies to show a positive result may have been due to limited time-frame for the intervention and/or failure to adequately implement the counter-measures in the communities. Authors' conclusions There are a very limited number of research studies allowing conclusions to be drawn about the effectiveness of community-based injury prevention programmes to prevent burns and scalds in children. There is a pressing need to evaluate high-quality community-based intervention programmes based on efficacious counter-measures to reduce burns and scalds in children. It is important that a framework for considering the problem of burns and scalds in children from a prevention perspective be articulated, and that an evidence-based suite of interventions be combined to create programme guidelines suitable for implementation in communities throughout the world.

Interspecific variation in the use of carotenoid-based coloration in birds: diet, life history and phylogeny

Birds show striking interspecific variation in their use of carotenoid-based coloration. Theory predicts that the use of carotenoids for coloration is closely associated with the availability of carotenoids in the diet but, although this prediction has been supported in single-species studies and those using small numbers of closely related species, there have been no broad-scale quantitative tests of the link between carotenoid coloration and diet. Here we test for such a link using modern comparative methods, a database on 140 families of birds and two alternative avian phylogenies. We show that carotenoid pigmentation is more common in the bare parts (legs, bill and skin) than in plumage, and that yellow coloration is more common than red. We also show that there is no simple, general association between the availability of carotenoids in the diet and the overall use of carotenoid-based coloration. However, when we look at plumage coloration separately from bare part coloration, we find there is a robust and significant association between diet and plumage coloration, but not between diet and bare part coloration. Similarly, when we look at yellow and red plumage colours separately, we find that the association between diet and coloration is typically stronger for red coloration than it is for yellow coloration. Finally, when we build multivariate models to explain variation in each type of carotenoid-based coloration we find that a variety of life history and ecological factors are associated with different aspects of coloration, with dietary carotenoids only being a consistent significant factor in the case of variation in plumage. All of these results remain qualitatively unchanged irrespective of the phylogeny used in the analyses, although in some cases the precise life history and ecological variables included in the multivariate models do vary. Taken together, these results indicate that the predicted link between carotenoid coloration and diet is idiosyncratic rather than general, being strongest with respect to plumage colours and weakest for bare part coloration. We therefore suggest that, although the carotenoid-based bird plumage may a good model for diet-mediated signalling, the use of carotenoids in bare part pigmentation may have a very different functional basis and may be more strongly influenced by genetic and physiological mechanisms, which currently remain relatively understudied.

Clinical outcomes from skin screening clinics within a community-based melanoma screening program

Background : Within a randomized trial of population screening for melanoma, primary care physicians conducted whole-body skin examinations and referred all patients with suspect lesions to their own doctor for further treatment. Objective: Our aim was to describe characteristics of skin screening participants, clinical screening diagnoses, management following referral, and specificity and yield of screening examinations. Methods: Information collected from consent forms, referral forms, and histopathological reports of lesions that had been excised or undergone biopsy was analyzed by means of descriptive statistics. Results: A total of 16,383 whole-body skin examinations resulted in 2302 referrals (14.1% overall; 15.5% men, 18.2% >= 50 years of age) for 4129 suspect lesions (including 222 suspected melanoma, 1101 suspected basal cell carcinomas [BCCs], 265 suspected squamous cell carcinomas [SCCs]). Histopathologic results were available for 94.8% of 1417 lesions excised and confirmed 33 melanomas (23 in men; 24 in participants ? 50 years of age), 259 BCCs, and 97 SCCs. The probability of detecting skin cancer of any type within the program was 2.4%. The estimated specificity of whole-body skin examinations for melanoma was 86.1% (95% confidence interval = 85.6-86.6). The positive predictive value (number of confirmed/number of lesions excised or biopsied x 100) for melanoma was 2.5%, 19.3% for BCC, and 7.2% for SCC (overall positive predictive value for skin cancer, 28.9%). Limitations: Follow-up of participants with a negative screening examination has not been conducted for the present investigation. Conclusions: The rate of skin cancer detected per 100 patients screened was higher than previously reported and men and attendees older than 50 years more frequently received a referral and diagnosis of melanoma. The specificity for detection of melanoma through whole-body skin examination by a primary care physician was comparable to that of other screening tests, including mammography.

Effect of sequence variation in Plasmodium falciparum Histidine-Rich protein 2 on binding of specific monoclonal antibodies: Implications for rapid diagnostic tests for malaria

This Article Right arrow Full Text Right arrow Full Text (PDF) Right arrow Supplemental material Right arrow Alert me when this article is cited Right arrow Alert me if a correction is posted Services Right arrow Similar articles in this journal Right arrow Similar articles in PubMed Right arrow Alert me to new issues of the journal Right arrow Download to citation manager Right arrow Reprints and Permissions Right arrow Copyright Information Right arrow Books from ASM Press Right arrow MicrobeWorld Citing Articles Right arrow Citing Articles via HighWire Right arrow Citing Articles via Google Scholar Google Scholar Right arrow Articles by Lee, N. Right arrow Articles by McCarthy, J. Right arrow Search for Related Content PubMed Right arrow PubMed Citation Right arrow Articles by Lee, N. Right arrow Articles by McCarthy, J. Right arrow Pubmed/NCBI databases * Substance via MeSH Previous Article | Next Article Journal of Clinical Microbiology, August 2006, p. 2773-2778, Vol. 44, No. 8 0095-1137/06/$08.00+0 doi:10.1128/JCM.02557-05 Copyright © 2006, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved. Effect of Sequence Variation in Plasmodium falciparum Histidine- Rich Protein 2 on Binding of Specific Monoclonal Antibodies: Implications for Rapid Diagnostic Tests for Malaria{dagger} Nelson Lee,1,2 Joanne Baker,2 Kathy T. Andrews,1 Michelle L. Gatton,1,3 David Bell,4 Qin Cheng,2,3 and James McCarthy1* Australian Centre for International and Tropical Health and Nutrition, Queensland Institute of Medical Research and School of Population Health, University of Queensland, Queensland, Australia,1 Department of Drug Resistance and Diagnostics, Australian Army Malaria Institute, Brisbane, Australia,2 Malaria Drug Resistance and Chemotherapy, Queensland Institute of Medical Research, Queensland, Australia,3 World Health Organization, Regional Office for the Western Pacific, Manila, Philippines4 Received 8 December 2005/ Returned for modification 23 February 2006/ Accepted 26 May 2006 The ability to accurately diagnose malaria infections, particularly in settings where laboratory facilities are not well developed, is of key importance in the control of this disease. Rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) offer great potential to address this need. Reports of significant variation in the field performance of RDTs based on the detection of Plasmodium falciparum histidine-rich protein 2 (HRP2) (PfHRP2) and of significant sequence polymorphism in PfHRP2 led us to evaluate the binding of four HRP2-specific monoclonal antibodies (MABs) to parasite proteins from geographically distinct P. falciparum isolates, define the epitopes recognized by these MABs, and relate the copy number of the epitopes to MAB reactivity. We observed a significant difference in the reactivity of the same MAB to different isolates and between different MABs tested with single isolates. When the target epitopes of three of the MABs were determined and mapped onto the peptide sequences of the field isolates, significant variability in the frequency of these epitopes was observed. These findings support the role of sequence variation as an explanation for variations in the performance of HRP2-based RDTs and point toward possible approaches to improve their diagnostic sensitivities

Applications of Thermal Mechanical Compression Tests in food powder analysis

A new Thermal Mechanical Compression Test (TMCT) was applied for glass-rubber transition and melting analyses of food powders and crystals. The TMCT technique measures the phase change of a material based on mechanical changes during the transition. Whey, honey, and apple juice powders were analyzed for their glass-rubber transition temperatures. Sucrose and glucose monohydrate crystals were analyzed for their melting temperatures. The results were compared to the values obtained by conventional DSC and TMA techniques. The new TMCT technique provided the results that were very close to the conventional techniques. This technique can be an alternative to analyze glass-rubber transition of food, pharmaceutical, and chemical dry products.