The coupled model predictability of the Western North Pacific summer monsoon with different leading times

Leading time length is an important issue for modeling seasonal forecasts. In this study, a comparison of the interannual predictability of the Western North Pacific (WNP) summer monsoon between different leading months was performed by using one-, four-, and seven-month lead retrospective forecasts (hindcasts) of four coupled models from Ensembles-Based Predictions of Climate Changes and Their Impacts (ENSEMBLES) for the period of 1960-2005. It is found that the WNP summer anomalies, including lower-tropospheric circulation and precipitation anomalies, can be well predicted for all these leading months. The accuracy of the four-month lead prediction is only slightly weaker than that of the one-month lead prediction, although the skill decreases with the increase of leading months.

Professionalism and professional institutions in times of change

Professionalism and professional institutions have developed and changed very gradually in recent decades, such that there are conflicting and competing definitions of what it means to be a professional. The direction of travel is examined through an institutional lens in terms of current trends and practices that have transformed professional life. At first sight, the evolution of professionalism appears to be developing into a new professionalism that requires less of professional institutions and more of the institutions of societal governance, such as contracts and statutes. These transformations are explored with reference to the need for a sustainable urban environment, showing that despite a reduced role of professional institutions, certain aspects of professionalism remain crucially important, especially in those jurisdictions where societal governance is not well developed. With the growing sophistication of legislation, insurance and commerce, the emphasis of what it means to be a professional is evolving. One key aspect of professionalism that is not usually listed in most texts is role definition and how this provides a sense of identity. Professionalism remains a relevant and important concept, but the exigencies of a sustainable urban environment transcend the objectives of the professions and demand a broader, collaborative and participative agenda.

Evidence for global climate reorganization during medieval times

A synthesis of global climate model results and inferences from proxy records suggests an increased sea surface temperature gradient between the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans during medieval times.

Relaxation of surface tension in the free-surface boundary layers of simple Lennard-Jones liquids

In this paper we use molecular dynamics to answer a classical question: how does the surface tension on a liquid/gas interface appear? After defining surface tension from the first principles and performing several consistency checks, we perform a dynamic experiment with a single simple liquid nanodroplet. At time zero, we remove all molecules of the interfacial layer of molecules, creating a fresh bare interface with the bulk arrangement of molecules. After that the system evolves towards equilibrium, and the expected surface tension is re-established. We found that the system relaxation consists of three distinct stages. First, the mechanical balance is quickly re-established. During this process the notion of surface tension is meaningless. In the second stage, the surface tension equilibrates, and the density profile broadens to a value which we call “intrinsic” interfacial width. During the third stage, the density profile continues to broaden due to capillary wave excitations, which does not however affect the surface tension.We have observed this scenario for monatomic Lennard-Jones (LJ) liquid as well as for binary LJ mixtures at different temperatures, monitoring a wide range of physical observables.

On the 'downward control' of extratropical diabatic circulations by eddy-induced mean zonal forces

The situation considered is that of a zonally symmetric model of the middle atmosphere subject to a given quasi-steady zonal force F̄, conceived to be the result of irreversible angular momentum transfer due to the upward propagation and breaking of Rossby and gravity waves together with any other dissipative eddy effects that may be relevant. The model's diabatic heating is assumed to have the qualitative character of a relaxation toward some radiatively determined temperature field. To the extent that the force F̄ may be regarded as given, and the extratropical angular momentum distribution is realistic, the extratropical diabatic mass flow across a given isentropic surface may be regarded as controlled exclusively by the F̄ distribution above that surface (implying control by the eddy dissipation above that surface and not, for instance, by the frequency of tropopause folding below). This “downward control” principle expresses a critical part of the dynamical chain of cause and effect governing the average rate at which photochemical products like ozone become available for folding into, or otherwise descending into, the extratropical troposphere. The dynamical facts expressed by the principle are also relevant, for instance, to understanding the seasonal-mean rate of upwelling of water vapor to the summer mesopause, and the interhemispheric differences in stratospheric tracer transport. The robustness of the principle is examined when F̄ is time-dependent. For a global-scale, zonally symmetric diabatic circulation with a Brewer-Dobson-like horizontal structure given by the second zonally symmetric Hough mode, with Rossby height HR = 13 km in an isothermal atmosphere with density scale height H = 7 km, the vertical partitioning of the unsteady part of the mass circulation caused by fluctuations in F̄ confined to a shallow layer LF̄ is always at least 84% downward. It is 90% downward when the force fluctuates sinusoidally on twice the radiative relaxation timescale and 95% if five times slower. The time-dependent adjustment when F̄ is changed suddenly is elucidated, extending the work of Dickinson (1968), when the atmosphere is unbounded above and below. Above the forcing, the adjustment is characterized by decay of the meridional mass circulation cell at a rate proportional to the radiative relaxation rate τr−1 divided by {1 + (4H2/HR2)}. This decay is related to the boundedness of the angular momentum that can be taken up by the finite mass of air above LF̄ without causing an ever-increasing departure from thermal wind balance. Below the forcing, the meridional mass circulation cell penetrates downward at a speed τr−1 HR2/H. For the second Hough mode, the time for downward penetration through one density scale height is about 6 days if the radiative relaxation time is 20 days, the latter being representative of the lower stratosphere. At any given altitude, a steady state is approached. The effect of a rigid lower boundary on the time-dependent adjustment is also considered. If a frictional planetary boundary layer is present then a steady state is ultimately approached everywhere, with the mass circulation extending downward from LF̄ and closing via the boundary layer. Satellite observations of temperature and ozone are used in conjunction with a radiative transfer scheme to estimate the altitudes from which the lower stratospheric diabatic vertical velocity is controlled by the effective F̄ in the real atmosphere. The data appear to indicate that about 80% of the effective control is usually exerted from below 40 km but with significant exceptions up to 70 km (in the high latitude southern hemispheric winter). The implications for numerical modelling of chemical transport are noted.

Relaxation of surface tension in the liquid-solid interfaces of Lennard-Jones liquids

We have established the surface tension relaxation time in the liquid-solid interfaces of Lennard-Jones (LJ) liquids by means of direct measurements in molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. The main result is that the relaxation time is found to be almost independent of the molecular structures and viscosity of the liquids (at seventy-fold change) used in our study and lies in such a range that in slow hydrodynamic motion the interfaces are expected to be at equilibrium. The implications of our results for the modelling of dynamic wetting processes and interpretation of dynamic contact angle data are discussed.

Emotions and the habitus: Young people with socio-emotional differences (re)producing social, emotional and cultural capital in family and leisure space-times

In this paper we explore the importance of emotionally inter-dependent relationships to the functioning of embodied social capital and habitus. Drawing upon the experiences of young people with socio-emotional differences, we demonstrate how emotionally inter-dependent and relatively nurturing relationships are integral to the acquisition of social capital and to the co-construction and embodiment of habitus. The young people presented in this paper often had difficulties in forging social relationships and in acquiring symbolic and cultural capital in school spaces. However, we outline how these young people (re)produce and embody alternative kinds of habitus, based on emotionally reciprocal relationships forged through formal and informal leisure activities and familial and fraternal social relationships. These alternative forms of habitus provide sites of subjection, scope for acquiring social and cultural capital and a positive sense of identity in the face of problematic relations and experiences in school spaces.

Computing journey start times with recurrent traffic conditions

n this study, the authors discuss the effective usage of technology to solve the problem of deciding on journey start times for recurrent traffic conditions. The developed algorithm guides the vehicles to travel on more reliable routes that are not easily prone to congestion or travel delays, ensures that the start time is as late as possible to avoid the traveller waiting too long at their destination and attempts to minimise the travel time. Experiments show that in order to be more certain of reaching their destination on time, a traveller has to leave early and correspondingly arrive early, resulting in a large waiting time. The application developed here asks the user to set this certainty factor as per the task in hand, and computes the best start time and route.

Dynamic response times of electrorheological fluids in steady shear

Transient responses of electrorheological fluids to square-wave electric fields in steady shear are investigated by computational simulation method. The structure responses of the fluids to the field with high frequency are found to be very similar to that to the field with very low frequency or the sudden applied direct current field. The stress rise processes are also similar in both cases and can be described by an exponential expression. The characteristic time tau of the stress response is found to decrease with the increase of the shear rate (gamma) over dot and the area fraction of the particles phi(2). The relation between them can be roughly expressed as tau proportional to(gamma) over dot(-3/4)phi(2)(-3/2). The simulation results are compared with experimental measurements. The aggregation kinetics of the particles in steady shear is also discussed according to these results.

Liquidity and the drivers of search, due diligence and transaction times for UK commercial real estate investments

Trading commercial real estate involves a process of exchange that is costly and which occurs over an extended and uncertain period of time. This has consequences for the performance and risk of real estate investments. Most research on transaction times has occurred for residential rather than commercial real estate. We study the time taken to transact commercial real estate assets in the UK using a sample of 578 transactions over the period 2004 to 2013. We measure average time to transact from a buyer and seller perspective, distinguishing the search and due diligence phases of the process, and we conduct econometric analysis to explain variation in due diligence times between assets. The median time for purchase of real estate from introduction to completion was 104 days and the median time for sale from marketing to completion was 135 days. There is considerable variation around these times and results suggest that some of this variation is related to market state, type and quality of asset, and type of participants involved in the transaction. Our findings shed light on the drivers of liquidity at an individual asset level and can inform models that quantify the impact of uncertain time on market on real estate investment risk.