5-year Chlamydia vaccination programme could reverse disease-related koala population decline: Predictions from a mathematical model using field data

BACKGROUND Many koala populations around Australia are in serious decline, with a substantial component of this decline in some Southeast Queensland populations attributed to the impact of Chlamydia. A Chlamydia vaccine for koalas is in development and has shown promise in early trials. This study contributes to implementation preparedness by simulating vaccination strategies designed to reverse population decline and by identifying which age and sex category it would be most effective to target. METHODS We used field data to inform the development and parameterisation of an individual-based stochastic simulation model of a koala population endemic with Chlamydia. The model took into account transmission, morbidity and mortality caused by Chlamydia infections. We calibrated the model to characteristics of typical Southeast Queensland koala populations. As there is uncertainty about the effectiveness of the vaccine in real-world settings, a variety of potential vaccine efficacies, half-lives and dosing schedules were simulated. RESULTS Assuming other threats remain constant, it is expected that current population declines could be reversed in around 5-6 years if female koalas aged 1-2 years are targeted, average vaccine protective efficacy is 75%, and vaccine coverage is around 10% per year. At lower vaccine efficacies the immunological effects of boosting become important: at 45% vaccine efficacy population decline is predicted to reverse in 6 years under optimistic boosting assumptions but in 9 years under pessimistic boosting assumptions. Terminating a successful vaccination programme at 5 years would lead to a rise in Chlamydia prevalence towards pre-vaccination levels. CONCLUSION For a range of vaccine efficacy levels it is projected that population decline due to endemic Chlamydia can be reversed under realistic dosing schedules, potentially in just 5 years. However, a vaccination programme might need to continue indefinitely in order to maintain Chlamydia prevalence at a sufficiently low level for population growth to continue.

Pesticide exposure assessment in rice paddy areas: A Japanese perspective

This chapter provides an overview of the Japanese regulatory issues regarding pesticide use in rice paddies and an introduction of the new pesticide registration program. In addition, the experience of the environmental monitoring of pesticides and the modeling approaches used for the calculation of predicted environmental concentrations (PECs) in surface water and ground water systems adjacent to rice paddies in Japan are also discussed. Japan has been one of the major pesticide users in the world. Although having a long history in rice cultivation, the pesticide exposure assessment for paddy rice production received less attention compared with EU and US. Applications of up-to-date techniques and the development of realistic assessment procedures under specific climatic conditions as well as mitigation management practices for controlling pesticide contamination are important for an environmental-friendly rice production. Through the international cooperation and research exchanges, advances in pesticide risk assessment for rice paddies in Asian region and other rice-growing areas in the world would contribute to sustainable rice production. Transplanting of rice seedlings grows almost all rice paddies in Japan. The land preparation starts around April and June, and the harvest season lasts from August to October depending on the region and the rice varieties. Most of the rice paddies are treated with herbicides and other crop protection products, such as fungicides and insecticides that are applied during the crop season accordingly. Newly developed insecticides and fungicides are also applied during seedbed preparation.

Modeling approaches for pesticide exposure assessment in rice paddies

Pesticide use in paddy rice production may contribute to adverse ecological effects in surface waters. Risk assessments conducted for regulatory purposes depend on the use of simulation models to determine predicted environment concentrations (PEC) of pesticides. Often tiered approaches are used, in which assessments at lower tiers are based on relatively simple models with conservative scenarios, while those at higher tiers have more realistic representations of physical and biochemical processes. This chapter reviews models commonly used for predicting the environmental fate of pesticides in rice paddies. Theoretical considerations, unique features, and applications are discussed. This review is expected to provide information to guide model selection for pesticide registration, regulation, and mitigation in rice production areas.

How yak farmers can hold back a glacial tsunami

As Himalayan glaciers melt, the natural dams formed beneath them become a dangerous threat to villages below. However, local yak farmers could soon have a simple solution.

The effects of gas and air flow distributions on the performance of the Farleigh No. 3 boiler

As more raw sugar factories become involved in the manufacture of by-products and cogeneration, bagasse is becoming an increasingly valuable commodity. However, in most factories, most of the bagasse produced is used to generate steam in relatively old and inefficient boilers. Efficient bagasse fired boilers are a high capital cost item and the cost of supplying the steam required to run a sugar factory by other means is prohibitive. For many factories a more realistic way to reduce bagasse consumption is to increase the efficiency of existing boilers. The Farleigh No. 3 boiler is a relatively old low efficiency boiler. Like many in the industry, the performance of this boiler has been adversely affected by uneven gas and air flow distributions and air heater leaks. The combustion performance and efficiency of this boiler have been significantly improved by making the gas and air flow distributions through the boiler more uniform and repairing the air heater. The estimated bagasse savings easily justify the cost of the boiler improvements.

A Network Model of Static Foam Drainage

On the basis of a more realistic tetrakaidecahedral structure of foam bubbles, a network model of static foam drainage has been developed. The model considers the foam to be made up of films and Plateau borders. The films drain into the adjacent Plateau borders, which in turn form a network through which the liquid moves from the foam to the liquid pool. From the structure, a unit flow cell was found, which constitutes the foam when stacked together both horizontally and vertically. Symmetry in the unit flow cell indicates that the flow analysis of a part of it can be employed to obtain the drainage for the whole foam. Material balance equations have been written for each segment of this subsection, ensuring connectivity, and solved with the appropriate boundary and initial conditions. The calculated rates of drainage, when compared with the available experimental results, indicate that the model predicts the experimental results well.

The role of lysine-41 in RNase A catalysis - A quantum chemical study on the active site ligand complex

Several mechanisms have been proposed to explain the action of enzymes at the atomic level. Among them, the recent proposals involving short hydrogen bonds as a step in catalysis by Gerlt and Gassman [1] and proton transfer through low barrier hydrogen bonds (LBHBs) [2, 3] have attracted attention. There are several limitations to experimentally testing such hypotheses, Recent developments in computational methods facilitate the study of active site-ligand complexes to high levels of accuracy, Our previous studies, which involved the docking of the dinucleotide substrate UpA to the active site of RNase A [4, 5], enabled us to obtain a realistic model of the ligand-bound active site of RNase A. From these studies, based on empirical potential functions, we were able to obtain the molecular dynamics averaged coordinates of RNase A, bound to the ligand UpA. A quantum mechanical study is required to investigate the catalytic process which involves the cleavage and formation of covalent bonds. In the present study, we have investigated the strengths of some of the hydrogen bonds between the active site residues of RNase A and UpA at the ab initio quantum chemical level using the molecular dynamics averaged coordinates as the starting point. The 49 atom system and other model systems were optimized at the 3-21G level and the energies of the optimized systems were obtained at the 6-31G* level. The results clearly indicate the strengthening of hydrogen bonds between neutral residues due to the presence of charged species at appropriate positions. Such a strengthening manifests itself in the form of short hydrogen bonds and a low barrier for proton transfer. In the present study, the proton transfer between the 2'-OH of ribose (from the substrate) and the imidazole group from the H12 of RNase A is influenced by K41, which plays a crucial role in strengthening the neutral hydrogen bond, reducing the barrier for proton transfer.

Drink driving among Indigenous people in Far North Queensland and northern New South Wales: A summary of the qualitative findings

Purpose In response to the threat that drink drivers pose to themselves and others, drink driving programs form an important part of a suite of countermeasures used in Australia and internationally. Unlike New Zealand/Aotearoa, United States and Canada that have programs catering for their First Peoples, all Australian programs are designed for the general driver population. The aim of this study was to identify the factors that contribute to Indigenous drink driving in order to inform appropriate recommendations related to developing a community-based program for Indigenous communities. Broader drivers licensing policy recommendations are also discussed. Methods A sample of 73 Indigenous people from Queensland and in New South Wales with one or more drink driving convictions completed a semi-structured interview in respect of the to their drink driving behaviour. Participants were asked to disclose information regarding their drink driving history, and alcohol and drug use. If participants self-reported no longer drink driving, they were probed about what factors had assisted them to avoid further offending. Results Key themes which emerged to maintain drink driving include motivations to drink and drive, and belief in the ability to manage the associated risks. Factors that appeared to support others from avoiding further offending include re-connecting with culture and family support. Conclusions and Implications A range of recommendations regarding delivery and content of a program for regional and remote communities as well as other policy implications are discussed.

Finite Element Solution Of Surface-Tension Driven Flows In Laser Surface-Melting

Lasers are very efficient in heating localized regions and hence they find a wide application in surface treatment processes. The surface of a material can be selectively modified to give superior wear and corrosion resistance. In laser surface-melting and welding problems, the high temperature gradient prevailing in the free surface induces a surface-tension gradient which is the dominant driving force for convection (known as thermo-capillary or Marangoni convection). It has been reported that the surface-tension driven convection plays a dominant role in determining the melt pool shape. In most of the earlier works on laser-melting and related problems, the finite difference method (FDM) has been used to solve the Navier Stokes equations [1]. Since the Reynolds number is quite high in these cases, upwinding has been used. Though upwinding gives physically realistic solutions even on a coarse grid, the results are inaccurate. McLay and Carey have solved the thermo-capillary flow in welding problems by an implicit finite element method [2]. They used the conventional Galerkin finite element method (FEM) which requires that the pressure be interpolated by one order lower than velocity (mixed interpolation). This restricts the choice of elements to certain higher order elements which need numerical integration for evaluation of element matrices. The implicit algorithm yields a system of nonlinear, unsymmetric equations which are not positive definite. Computations would be possible only with large mainframe computers.Sluzalec [3] has modeled the pulsed laser-melting problem by an explicit method (FEM). He has used the six-node triangular element with mixed interpolation. Since he has considered the buoyancy induced flow only, the velocity values are small. In the present work, an equal order explicit FEM is used to compute the thermo-capillary flow in the laser surface-melting problem. As this method permits equal order interpolation, there is no restriction in the choice of elements. Even linear elements such as the three-node triangular elements can be used. As the governing equations are solved in a sequential manner, the computer memory requirement is less. The finite element formulation is discussed in this paper along with typical numerical results.

Growing length and time scales in glass-forming liquids

The glass transition, whereby liquids transform into amorphous solids at low temperatures, is a subject of intense research despite decades of investigation. Explaining the enormous increase in relaxation times of a liquid upon supercooling is essential for understanding the glass transition. Although many theories, such as the Adam-Gibbs theory, have sought to relate growing relaxation times to length scales associated with spatial correlations in liquid structure or motion of molecules, the role of length scales in glassy dynamics is not well established. Recent studies of spatially correlated rearrangements of molecules leading to structural relaxation, termed ``spatially heterogeneous dynamics,'' provide fresh impetus in this direction. A powerful approach to extract length scales in critical phenomena is finite-size scaling, wherein a system is studied for sizes traversing the length scales of interest. We perform finite-size scaling for a realistic glass-former, using computer simulations, to evaluate the length scale associated with spatially heterogeneous dynamics, which grows as temperature decreases. However, relaxation times that also grow with decreasing temperature do not exhibit standard finite-size scaling with this length. We show that relaxation times are instead determined, for all studied system sizes and temperatures, by configurational entropy, in accordance with the Adam-Gibbs relation, but in disagreement with theoretical expectations based on spin-glass models that configurational entropy is not relevant at temperatures substantially above the critical temperature of mode-coupling theory. Our results provide new insights into the dynamics of glass-forming liquids and pose serious challenges to existing theoretical descriptions.

Identifying and addressing equivocal trouble in understanding within classroom interaction

Maintaining intersubjectivity is crucial for accomplishing coordinated social action. Although conversational repair is a recognised defence of intersubjectivity and routinely used to address ostensible sources of trouble in social interaction, it is less clear how people address more equivocal trouble. This study uses conversation analysis to examine preschool classroom interaction, focusing on practices used to identify and address such trouble. Repair is found to be a recurrent frontline practice for addressing equivocal trouble, occasioning space for further information that might enable identifying a specific trouble source. Where further information is forthcoming, a range of strategies are subsequently employed to address the trouble. Where this is not possible or does not succeed, a secondary option is to progress a broader activity-in-progress. This allows for the possibility of another opportunity to identify and address the trouble. Given misunderstandings can jeopardise interactants’ ability to mutually accomplish courses of action, these practices defend intersubjectivity against the threat of equivocal trouble.

Dystopian fiction for young people: Instructive tales of resilience

The rise and popularity of dystopian fiction in recent years is quite marked and critics often attribute such high sales of books and box office as being linked to the impact September 11 has had on the world, especially in the United States. While the events of September 11, 2001 saw a heightened anxiety by nations and their citizens about the fear and threat of terrorism – an anxiety which is paradoxically lowered and raised by increased surveillance practices, security checks and warnings – other changes since the last stages of the twentieth century have also raised concerns and anxieties. In this paper I use examples of Young Adult (YA) dystopian fiction to illustrate the potential these texts have for providing their readers with alternative ways of thinking about the challenges that others face and their capacity for resilience.

The Australian naturalistic driving study: From beginnings to launch

The Australian Naturalistic Driving Study (ANDS), a ground-breaking study of Australian driver behaviour and performance, was officially launched on April 21st, 2015 at UNSW. The ANDS project will provide a realistic perspective on the causes of vehicle crashes and near miss crash events, along with the roles speeding, distraction and other factors have on such events. A total of 360 volunteer drivers across NSW and Victoria - 180 in NSW and 180 in Victoria - will be monitored by a Data Acquisition System (DAS) recording continuously for 4 months their driving behaviour using a suite of cameras and sensors. Participants’ driving behaviour (e.g. gaze), the behaviour of their vehicle (e.g. speed, lane position) and the behaviour of other road users with whom they interact in normal and safety-critical situations will be recorded. Planning of the ANDS commenced over two years ago in June 2013 when the Multi-Institutional Agreement for a grant supporting the equipment purchase and assembly phase was signed by parties involved in this large scale $4 million study (5 university accident research centres, 3 government regulators, 2 third party insurers and 2 industry partners). The program’s second development phase commenced a year later in June 2014 after a second grant was awarded. This paper presents an insider's view into that two year process leading up to the launch, and outlines issues that arose in the set-up phase of the study and how these were addressed. This information will be useful to other organisations considering setting up an NDS.

A linear programming approach for estimating the structure of a sparse linear genetic network from transcript profiling data

Background: A genetic network can be represented as a directed graph in which a node corresponds to a gene and a directed edge specifies the direction of influence of one gene on another. The reconstruction of such networks from transcript profiling data remains an important yet challenging endeavor. A transcript profile specifies the abundances of many genes in a biological sample of interest. Prevailing strategies for learning the structure of a genetic network from high-dimensional transcript profiling data assume sparsity and linearity. Many methods consider relatively small directed graphs, inferring graphs with up to a few hundred nodes. This work examines large undirected graphs representations of genetic networks, graphs with many thousands of nodes where an undirected edge between two nodes does not indicate the direction of influence, and the problem of estimating the structure of such a sparse linear genetic network (SLGN) from transcript profiling data. Results: The structure learning task is cast as a sparse linear regression problem which is then posed as a LASSO (l1-constrained fitting) problem and solved finally by formulating a Linear Program (LP). A bound on the Generalization Error of this approach is given in terms of the Leave-One-Out Error. The accuracy and utility of LP-SLGNs is assessed quantitatively and qualitatively using simulated and real data. The Dialogue for Reverse Engineering Assessments and Methods (DREAM) initiative provides gold standard data sets and evaluation metrics that enable and facilitate the comparison of algorithms for deducing the structure of networks. The structures of LP-SLGNs estimated from the INSILICO1, INSILICO2 and INSILICO3 simulated DREAM2 data sets are comparable to those proposed by the first and/or second ranked teams in the DREAM2 competition. The structures of LP-SLGNs estimated from two published Saccharomyces cerevisae cell cycle transcript profiling data sets capture known regulatory associations. In each S. cerevisiae LP-SLGN, the number of nodes with a particular degree follows an approximate power law suggesting that its degree distributions is similar to that observed in real-world networks. Inspection of these LP-SLGNs suggests biological hypotheses amenable to experimental verification. Conclusion: A statistically robust and computationally efficient LP-based method for estimating the topology of a large sparse undirected graph from high-dimensional data yields representations of genetic networks that are biologically plausible and useful abstractions of the structures of real genetic networks. Analysis of the statistical and topological properties of learned LP-SLGNs may have practical value; for example, genes with high random walk betweenness, a measure of the centrality of a node in a graph, are good candidates for intervention studies and hence integrated computational – experimental investigations designed to infer more realistic and sophisticated probabilistic directed graphical model representations of genetic networks. The LP-based solutions of the sparse linear regression problem described here may provide a method for learning the structure of transcription factor networks from transcript profiling and transcription factor binding motif data.

The mechanical triggers of plaque rupture: Shear stress vs pressure gradient

The aim of this study was to evaluate the mechanical triggers that may cause plaque rupture. Wall shear stress (WSS) and pressure gradient are the direct mechanical forces acting on the plaque in a stenotic artery. Their influence on plaque stability is thought to be controversial. This study used a physiologically realistic, pulsatile flow, two-dimensional, cine phase-contrast MRI sequence in a patient with a 70% carotid stenosis. Instead of considering the full patient-specific carotid bifurcation derived from MRI, only the plaque region has been modelled by means of the idealised flow model. WSS reached a local maximum just distal to the stenosis followed by a negative local minimum. A pressure drop across the stenosis was found which varied significantly during systole and diastole. The ratio of the relative importance of WSS and pressure was assessed and was found to be less than 0.07% for all time phases, even at the throat of the stenosis. In conclusion, although the local high WSS at the stenosis may damage the endothelium and fissure plaque, the magnitude of WSS is small compared with the overall loading on plaque. Therefore, pressure may be the main mechanical trigger for plaque rupture and risk stratification using stress analysis of plaque stability may only need to consider the pressure effect.