929 resultados para Rainfall anomalies


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Fusarium species associated with crown rot were isolated and identified from 409 wheat, barley or durum wheat crops from the eastern Australian grain belt between 1996 and 1999. Fusarium pseudograminearum was almost the only species isolated from crops in Queensland and New South Wales. F. pseudograminearum was also the most common species in Victoria and South Australia, but F. culmorum was frequently isolated in these states. F. culmorum accounted for more than 70% of isolates from the Victorian high-rainfall (> 500 mm) region and the South-East region of South Australia. F. culmorum comprised 18% of isolates from the Victorian medium-rainfall (350-500 mm) region, and 7% of isolates from each of the Victorian low-rainfall region and the Mid-North region of South Australia. F. avenaceum, F. crookwellense and F. graminearum were isolated very infrequently. The proportion of F. culmorum among isolates of Fusarium from districts in Victoria and South Australia was strongly correlated with climatic conditions around the end of the growing season, especially with rainfall in November.

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Continuous cultivation and cereal cropping of southern Queensland soils previously supporting native vegetation have resulted in reduced soil nitrogen supply, and consequently decreased cereal grain yields and low grain protein. To enhance yields and protein concentrations of wheat, management practices involving N fertiliser application, with no-tillage and stubble retention, grain legumes, and legume leys were evaluated from 1987 to 1998 on a fertility-depleted Vertosol at Warra, southern Queensland. The objective of this study was to examine the effect of lucerne in a 2-year lucerne–wheat rotation for its nitrogen and disease-break benefits to subsequent grain yield and protein content of wheat as compared with continuous wheat cropping. Dry matter production and nitrogen yields of lucerne were closely correlated with the total rainfall for October–September as well as March–September rainfall. Each 100 mm of total rainfall resulted in 0.97 t/ha of dry matter and 26 kg/ha of nitrogen yield. For the March–September rainfall, the corresponding values were 1.26 t/ha of dry matter and 36 kg/ha of nitrogen yield. The latter values were 10% lower than those produced by annual medics during a similar period. Compared with wheat–wheat cropping, significant increases in total soil nitrogen were observed only in 1990, 1992 and 1994 but increases in soil mineralisable nitrogen were observed in most years following lucerne. Similarly, pre-plant nitrate nitrogen in the soil profile following lucerne was higher by 74 kg/ha (9–167 kg N/ha) than that of wheat–wheat without N fertiliser in all years except 1996. Consequently, higher wheat grain protein (7 out of 9 seasons) and grain yield (4 out of 9 seasons) were produced compared with continuous wheat. There was significant depression in grain yield in 2 (1993 and 1995) out of 9 seasons attributed to soil moisture depletion and/or low growing season rainfall. Consequently, the overall responses in yield were lower than those of 50 kg/ha of fertiliser nitrogen applied to wheat–wheat crops, 2-year medic–wheat or chickpea–wheat rotation, although grain protein concentrations were higher following lucerne. The incidence and severity of the soilborne disease, common root rot of wheat caused by Bipolaris sorokiniana, was generally higher in lucerne–wheat than in continuous wheat with no nitrogen fertiliser applications, since its severity was significantly correlated with plant available water at sowing. No significant incidence of crown rot or root lesion nematode was observed. Thus, productivity, which was mainly due to nitrogen accretion in this experiment, can be maintained where short duration lucerne leys are grown in rotations with wheat.

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This paper reports an experiment undertaken to examine the impact of burning in spring together with reduced grazing pressure on the dynamics of H. contortus and Aristida spp. In H. contortus pasture in south-eastern Queensland. The overall results indicate that spring burning in combination with reduced grazing pressure had no marked effect on the density of either grass species. This was attributed to 2 factors. Firstly, extreme drought conditions restricted any increase in H. contortus seedling establishment despite the presence of an adequate soil seed bank prior to summer; and secondly, some differences occurred in the response to fire of the diverse taxonomic groupings in the species of Aristida spp. present at the study site. This study concluded that it is necessary to identify appropriate taxonomic units within the Aristida genus and that, where appropriate, burning in spring to manage pasture composition should be conducted under favorable rainfall conditions using seasonal forecasting indicators such as the Southern Oscillation Index

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This study used faecal pellets to investigate the broadscale distribution and diet of koalas in the mulgalands biogeographic region of south-west Queensland. Koala distribution was determined by conducting faecal pellet searches within a 30-cm radius of the base of eucalypts on 149 belt transects, located using a multi-scaled stratified sampling design. Cuticular analysis of pellets collected ffom 22 of these sites was conducted to identify the dietary composition of koalas within the region. Our data suggest that koala distribution is concentrated in the northern and more easterly regions of the study area, and appears to be strongly linked with annual rainfall. Over 50% of our koala records were obtained from non-riverine communities, indicating that koalas in the study area are not primarily restricted to riverine communities, as bas frequently been suggested. Cuticular analysis indicates that more than 90% of koala diet within the region consists of five eucalypt species. Our data highlights the importance of residual Tertiary landforms to koala conservation in the region.

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The low-level jet (LLJ) over the Indian region, which is most prominent during the monsoon (June-September) season, has been studied with a general circulation model (GCM). The role of African orography in modulating this jet is the focus of this article. The presence o African orography intensifies the cross-equatorial flow. Contrary to previous modelling Studies we find that cross-equatorial flow occurs even in the absence of African orography, though this flow is muc weaker even when the Indian monsoon rainfall is high. However, the location of the meridional jet near the equator in the Somali region is linked to the Indian monsoon rainfall rather than to the land-sea contrast over Somalia. Also, the presence of African orography, and not the strength of the Indian monsoon, controls the vertical extent of the equatorial meridional wind. In an aqua-planet simulation, the cross-equatorial flow occurs about 30 to the west of the rainfall maximum. Thus, the longitudinal location of the equatorial Somali jet depends upon the occurrence of monsoon heating, but the vertical structure of the jet is on account of the western boundary current in the atmosphere due to the East African highlands under the influence of monsoonal heat source.

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Soil nitrogen (N) supply in the Vertosols of southern Queensland, Australia has steadily declined as a result of long-term cereal cropping without N fertiliser application or rotations with legumes. Nitrogen-fixing legumes such as lucerne may enhance soil N supply and therefore could be used in lucerne-wheat rotations. However, lucerne leys in this subtropical environment can create a soil moisture deficit, which may persist for a number of seasons. Therefore, we evaluated the effect of varying the duration of a lucerne ley (for up to 4 years) on soil N increase, N supply to wheat, soil water changes, wheat yields and wheat protein on a fertility-depleted Vertosol in a field experiment between 1989 and 1996 at Warra (26degrees 47'S, 150degrees53'E), southern Queensland. The experiment consisted of a wheat-wheat rotation, and 8 treatments of lucerne leys starting in 1989 (phase 1) or 1990 (phase 2) for 1,2,3 or 4 years duration, followed by wheat cropping. Lucerne DM yield and N yield increased with increasing duration of lucerne leys. Soil N increased over time following 2 years of lucerne but there was no further significant increase after 3 or 4 years of lucerne ley. Soil nitrate concentrations increased significantly with all lucerne leys and moved progressively downward in the soil profile from 1992 to 1995. Soil water, especially at 0.9-1.2 m depth, remained significantly lower for the next 3 years after the termination of the 4 year lucerne ley than under continuous wheat. No significant increase in wheat yields was observed from 1992 to 1995, irrespective of the lucerne ley. However, wheat grain protein concentrations were significantly higher under lucerne-wheat than under wheat wheat rotations for 3-5 years. The lucerne yield and soil water and nitrate-N concentrations were satisfactorily simulated with the APSIM model. Although significant N accretion occurred in the soil following lucerne leys, in drier seasons, recharge of the drier soil profile following long duration lucerne occurred after 3 years. Consequently, 3- and 4-year lucerne-wheat rotations resulted in more variable wheat yields than wheat-wheat rotations in this region. The remaining challenge in using lucerne-wheat rotations is balancing the N accretion benefits with plant-available water deficits, which are most likely to occur in the highly variable rainfall conditions of this region.

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Australia’s rangelands are the extensive arid and semi-arid grazing lands that cover approximately 70% of the Australian continent. They are characterised by low and generally variable rainfall, low productivity and a sparse population. They support a number of industries including mining and tourism, but pastoralism is the primary land use. In some areas, the rangelands have a history of biological decline (Noble 1997), with erosion, loss of perennial native grasses and incursion of woody vegetation commonly reported in the scientific and lay literature. Despite our historic awareness of these trends, the establishment of systems to measure and monitor degradation, has presented numerous problems. The size and accessibility of Australia’s rangeland often mitigates development of extensive monitoring programs. So, too, securing on-going commitment from Government agencies to fund rangeland monitoring activities have led to either abandonment or a scaled-down approach in some instances (Graetz et al. 1986; Holm 1993). While a multiplicity of monitoring schemes have been developed for landholders at the property scale, and some have received promising initial uptake, relatively few have been maintained for more than a few years on any property without at least some agency support (Pickup et al. 1998). But, ironically, such property level monitoring tools can contribute significantly to local decisions about stock, infrastructure and sustainability. Research in recent decades has shown the value of satellites for monitoring change in rangelands (Wallace et al. 2004), especially in terms of tree and ground cover. While steadily improving, use of satellite data as a monitoring tool has been limited by the cost of the imagery, and the equipment and expertise needed to extract useful information from it. A project now under way in the northern rangelands of Australia is attempting to circumvent many of the problems through a monitoring system that allows property managers to use long-term satellite image sequences to quickly and inexpensively track changes in land cover on their properties

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Traps baited with synthetic aggregation pheromone and fermenting bread dough were used to monitor seasonal incidence and abundance of the ripening fruit pests, Carpophilus hemipterus (L.), C. mutilatus Erichson and C. davidsoni Dobson in stone fruit orchards in the Leeton district of southern New South Wales during five seasons (1991-96). Adult beetles were trapped from September-May, but abundance varied considerably between years with the amount of rainfall in December-January having a major influence on population size and damage potential during the canning peach harvest (late February-March). Below average rainfall in December-January was associated with mean trap catches of < 10 beetles/trap/week in low dose pheromone traps during the harvest period in 1991/92 and 1993/94 and no reported damage to ripening fruit. Rainfall in December-January 1992/93 was more than double the average and mean trap catches ranged from 8-27 beetles/week during the harvest period with substantial damage to the peach crop. December-January rainfall was also above average in 1994/95 and 1995/96 and means of 50-300 beetles/trap/week were recorded in high dose pheromone traps during harvest periods. Carpophilus spp. caused economic damage to peach crops in both seasons. These data indicate that it may be possible to predict the likelihood of Carpophilus beetle damage to ripening stone fruit in inland areas of southern Australia, by routine pheromone-based monitoring of beetle populations and summer temperatures and rainfall.

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A survey for mycotoxins and fungal damage in maize (Zea mays L.) grown during 1982 in Far North Queensland is reported. This season had a rainfall distribution which was typical for the reglon. The 293 samples examined came from 11 1 farms in eight maize-growing districts. The samples were first subjected to rapid screening tests for fungal damage. Aflatoxins B1, B2, G1, G2 ochratoxin A, T-2 toxin, and sterigmatocystin were not detected, but zearalenone was found in 85% of the samples. The concentrations of zearalenone were correlated with the extent of Gibberella zeae cob rot as indicated by the proportion (up to 2%) of kernels in each sample having a reddish-purple discoloration. In four samples the zearalenone concentration exceeded 1 mg kg-1, but the mean ¦ s.d. (n = 293) concentration in all samples was 0.17 ¦ 0.225 mg kg-1. Concentrations were highest in districts with the highest rainfall during the period of maize growth.

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The aim of this study is to examine the relationship of the Roman villa to its environment. The villa was an important feature of the countryside intended both for agricultural production and for leisure. Manuals of Roman agriculture give instructions on how to select a location for an estate. The ideal location was a moderate slope facing east or south in a healthy area and good neighborhood, near good water resources and fertile soils. A road or a navigable river or the sea was needed for transportation of produce. A market for selling the produce, a town or a village, should have been nearby. The research area is the surroundings of the city of Rome, a key area for the development of the villa. The materials used consist of archaeological settlement sites, literary and epigraphical evidence as well as environmental data. The sites include all settlement sites from the 7th century BC to 5th century AD to examine changes in the tradition of site selection. Geographical Information Systems were used to analyze the data. Six aspects of location were examined: geology, soils, water resources, terrain, visibility/viewability and relationship to roads and habitation centers. Geology was important for finding building materials and the large villas from the 2nd century BC onwards are close to sources of building stones. Fertile soils were sought even in the period of the densest settlement. The area is rich in water, both rainfall and groundwater, and finding a water supply was fairly easy. A certain kind of terrain was sought over very long periods: a small spur or ridge shoulder facing preferably south with an open area in front of the site. The most popular villa resorts are located on the slopes visible from almost the entire Roman region. A visible villa served the social and political aspirations of the owner, whereas being in the villa created a sense of privacy. The area has a very dense road network ensuring good connectivity from almost anywhere in the region. The best visibility/viewability, dense settlement and most burials by roads coincide, creating a good neighborhood. The locations featuring the most qualities cover nearly a quarter of the area and more than half of the settlement sites are located in them. The ideal location was based on centuries of practical experience and rationalized by the literary tradition.

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The Gascoyne-Murchison region of Western Australia experiences an arid to semi-arid climate with a highly variable temporal and spatial rainfall distribution. The region has around 39.2 million hectares available for pastoral lease and supports predominantly catle and sheep grazing leases. In recent years a number of climate forecasting systems have been available offering rainfall probabilities with different lead times and a forecast period; however, the extent to which these systems are capable of fulfilling the requirements of the local pastoralists is still ambiguous. Issues can range from ensuring forecasts are issued with sufficient lead time to enable key planning or decisions to be revoked or altered, to ensuring forecast language is simple and clear, to negate possible misunderstandings in interpretation. A climate research project sought to provide an objective method to determine which available forecasting systems had the greatest forecasting skill at times of the year relevant to local property management. To aid this climate research project, the study reported here was undertaken with an overall objective of exploring local pastoralists' climate information needs. We also explored how well they understand common climate forecast terms such as 'mean', median' and 'probability', and how they interpret and apply forecast information to decisions. A stratified, proportional random sampling was used for the purpose of deriving the representative sample based on rainfall-enterprise combinations. In order to provide more time for decision-making than existing operational forecasts that are issued with zero lead time, pastoralists requested that forecasts be issued for May-July and January-March with lead times counting down from 4 to 0 months. We found forecasts of between 20 and 50 mm break-of-season or follow-up rainfall were likely to influence decisions. Eighty percent of pastoralists demonstrated in a test question that they had a poor technical understanding of how to interpret the standard wording of a probabilistic median rainfall forecast. this is worthy of further research to investigate whether inappropriate management decisions are being made because the forecasts are being misunderstood. We found more than half the respondents regularly access and use weather and climate forecasts or outlook information from a range of sources and almost three-quarters considered climate information or tools useful, with preferred methods for accessing this information by email, faxback service, internet and the Department of Agriculture Western Australia's Pastoral Memo. Despite differences in enterprise types and rainfall seasonality across the region we found seasonal climate forecasting needs were relatively consistent. It became clear that providing basic training and working with pastoralists to help them understand regional climatic drivers, climate terminology and jargon, and the best ways to apply the forecasts to enhance decision-making are important to improve their use of information. Consideration could also be given to engaging a range of producers to write the climate forecasts themselves in the language they use and understand, in consultation with the scientists who prepare the forecasts.

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Researchers developing climate-based forecasts, workshops, software tools and information to aid grazier decisions undertook an evaluation study to enhance planning and benchmark impact. One hundred graziers in Western Queensland were randomly selected from 7 shires and surveyed by mail and telephone (43 respondents) to explore levels of knowledge and use of climate information, practices and information needs. We found 36% of respondents apply the Southern Oscillation Index to property decisions but 92% were unaware El Niño Southern Oscillation’s predictive signal in the region is greater for pasture growth than rainfall, suggesting they may not recognise the potential of pasture growth forecasts. Almost 75% of graziers consider they are conservative or risk averse in their attitude to managing their enterprise. Mail respondents (n= 20) if given a 68%, on average, probability of exceeding median rainfall forecast may change a decision; almost two-thirds vary stocking rate based on forage available, last year’s pasture growth or the Southern Oscillation Index; the balance maintain a constant stocking rate strategy; 90% have access to a computer; 75% to the internet and 95% have a fax. This paper presents findings of the study and draws comparisons with a similar study of 174 irrigators in the Northern Murray-Darling Basin (Aust. J. Exp. Ag. 44, 247-257). New insights and information gained are helping the team better understand client needs and plan, design and extend tools and information tailored to grazier knowledge, practice, information needs and preferences. Results have also provided a benchmark against which to measure project impact and have influenced the team to make important changes to their project planning, activities and methods for transferring technology tailored to grazier preferences.

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Many statistical forecast systems are available to interested users. In order to be useful for decision-making, these systems must be based on evidence of underlying mechanisms. Once causal connections between the mechanism and their statistical manifestation have been firmly established, the forecasts must also provide some quantitative evidence of `quality’. However, the quality of statistical climate forecast systems (forecast quality) is an ill-defined and frequently misunderstood property. Often, providers and users of such forecast systems are unclear about what ‘quality’ entails and how to measure it, leading to confusion and misinformation. Here we present a generic framework to quantify aspects of forecast quality using an inferential approach to calculate nominal significance levels (p-values) that can be obtained either by directly applying non-parametric statistical tests such as Kruskal-Wallis (KW) or Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) or by using Monte-Carlo methods (in the case of forecast skill scores). Once converted to p-values, these forecast quality measures provide a means to objectively evaluate and compare temporal and spatial patterns of forecast quality across datasets and forecast systems. Our analysis demonstrates the importance of providing p-values rather than adopting some arbitrarily chosen significance levels such as p < 0.05 or p < 0.01, which is still common practice. This is illustrated by applying non-parametric tests (such as KW and KS) and skill scoring methods (LEPS and RPSS) to the 5-phase Southern Oscillation Index classification system using historical rainfall data from Australia, The Republic of South Africa and India. The selection of quality measures is solely based on their common use and does not constitute endorsement. We found that non-parametric statistical tests can be adequate proxies for skill measures such as LEPS or RPSS. The framework can be implemented anywhere, regardless of dataset, forecast system or quality measure. Eventually such inferential evidence should be complimented by descriptive statistical methods in order to fully assist in operational risk management.

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This study highlights the importance of considering how seasonality of rainfall affects availability of resources and consequently species distributions within tropical ecosystems. The endangered northern bettong, Bettongia tropica Wakefield is thought to be restricted to habitats where seasonal availability of hypogeous fungi, their principal food resource, remains high. To test this hypothesis fungal abundance was quantified in the early wet, late wet, early dry and late dry seasons within known bettong habitat. A relationship was found between precipitation and fungal availability, with the abundance of hypogeous fungi being significantly lower in the late dry season. Fungal availability correlated strongly with the seasonal rainfall pattern determined from 74-year monthly means. This contrasts with a previous study where mycophagy, measured by faecal analysis, remained high across seasons presumably because of aseasonal rainfall during that study period. Alloteropsis semialata R.Br. (cockatoo grass) use by bettongs increased significantly during the period of low fungal availability. This suggests that the importance of cockatoo grass as an alternative food resource during annual and extended dry periods has previously been underestimated. With the frequency and intensity of drought expected to increase with global climate change, these findings have significant implications for bettong management. The important and possibly equivalent dependence of B. tropica on both hypogeous fungi and A. semialata helps to explain their habitat preference and identifies this species as a true ecotonal specialist.

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Australian researchers have been developing robust yield estimation models, based mainly on the crop growth response to water availability during the crop season. However, knowledge of spatial distribution of yields within and across the production regions can be improved by the use of remote sensing techniques. Images of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) vegetation indices, available since 1999, have the potential to contribute to crop yield estimation. The objective of this study was to analyse the relationship between winter crop yields and the spectral information available in MODIS vegetation index images at the shire level. The study was carried out in the Jondaryan and Pittsworth shires, Queensland , Australia . Five years (2000 to 2004) of 250m resolution, 16-day composite of MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) images were used during the winter crop season (April to November). Seasonal variability of the profiles of the vegetation index images for each crop season using different regions of interest (cropping mask) were displayed and analysed. Correlation analysis between wheat and barley yield data and MODIS image values were also conducted. The results showed high seasonal variability in the NDVI and EVI profiles, and the EVI values were consistently lower than those of the NDVI. The highest image values were observed in 2003 (in contrast to 2004), and were associated with rainfall amount and distribution. The seasonal variability of the profiles was similar in both shires, with minimum values in June and maximum values at the end of August. NDVI and EVI images showed sensitivity to seasonal variability of the vegetation and exhibited good association (e.g. r = 0.84, r = 0.77) with winter crop yields.