A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND Quantification of the disease burden caused by different risks informs prevention by providing an account of health loss different to that provided by a disease-by-disease analysis. No complete revision of global disease burden caused by risk factors has been done since a comparative risk assessment in 2000, and no previous analysis has assessed changes in burden attributable to risk factors over time. METHODS We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010. We estimated exposure distributions for each year, region, sex, and age group, and relative risks per unit of exposure by systematically reviewing and synthesising published and unpublished data. We used these estimates, together with estimates of cause-specific deaths and DALYs from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, to calculate the burden attributable to each risk factor exposure compared with the theoretical-minimum-risk exposure. We incorporated uncertainty in disease burden, relative risks, and exposures into our estimates of attributable burden. FINDINGS In 2010, the three leading risk factors for global disease burden were high blood pressure (7·0% [95% uncertainty interval 6·2-7·7] of global DALYs), tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·3% [5·5-7·0]), and alcohol use (5·5% [5·0-5·9]). In 1990, the leading risks were childhood underweight (7·9% [6·8-9·4]), household air pollution from solid fuels (HAP; 7·0% [5·6-8·3]), and tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·1% [5·4-6·8]). Dietary risk factors and physical inactivity collectively accounted for 10·0% (95% UI 9·2-10·8) of global DALYs in 2010, with the most prominent dietary risks being diets low in fruits and those high in sodium. Several risks that primarily affect childhood communicable diseases, including unimproved water and sanitation and childhood micronutrient deficiencies, fell in rank between 1990 and 2010, with unimproved water and sanitation accounting for 0·9% (0·4-1·6) of global DALYs in 2010. However, in most of sub-Saharan Africa childhood underweight, HAP, and non-exclusive and discontinued breastfeeding were the leading risks in 2010, while HAP was the leading risk in south Asia. The leading risk factor in Eastern Europe, most of Latin America, and southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2010 was alcohol use; in most of Asia, North Africa and Middle East, and central Europe it was high blood pressure. Despite declines, tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke remained the leading risk in high-income north America and western Europe. High body-mass index has increased globally and it is the leading risk in Australasia and southern Latin America, and also ranks high in other high-income regions, North Africa and Middle East, and Oceania. INTERPRETATION Worldwide, the contribution of different risk factors to disease burden has changed substantially, with a shift away from risks for communicable diseases in children towards those for non-communicable diseases in adults. These changes are related to the ageing population, decreased mortality among children younger than 5 years, changes in cause-of-death composition, and changes in risk factor exposures. New evidence has led to changes in the magnitude of key risks including unimproved water and sanitation, vitamin A and zinc deficiencies, and ambient particulate matter pollution. The extent to which the epidemiological shift has occurred and what the leading risks currently are varies greatly across regions. In much of sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risks are still those associated with poverty and those that affect children.

Inability to swallow tablets is common and cause for concern

We naturally chew food before swallowing, but tablets and capsules require a complicated, conscious mechanism to over-ride the need to chew and the gag reflex, designed to eject foodstuffs that are not adequately chewed...

Inappropriate formulation choices in the administration of medication to elderly patients with dysphagia in nursing homes

Inappropriate food or medication texture in patients with dysphagia is the most significant risk factor for pneumonia. Dysphagia is prevalent within care homes for the older person as it is largely found in conditions associated with ageing. This study was designed to determine the appropriateness of medication formulation choices in elderly patients with dysphagia in care homes.

Nurses’ views on the implementation of Individualised Medication Administration Guides in patients with dysphagia in care homes

As conditions such as stroke, cancer, Parkinson's disease and Huntingdon's chorea are commonly found in care homes between 15% and 30% of residents in care homes have been found to have difficulties in swallowing their medicines.To address the difficulties associated with administering medicines to patients who cannot swallow (with dysphagia), Individualised Medication Administration Guides (I-MAGs) were introduced by a specialised pharmacist in Care for Elderly wards in a general hospital in East Anglia. The guides contained detailed information about how to administer each medication and they were individualised to the needs of the patient. The I-MAGs were printed in green forms and attached to the medication chart in order to be used in conjunction with it. The ward nurses reported an increase in their confidence when administering medication when I-MAGs were present in the ward. Some patients with I-MAG were discharged to care homes where the I-MAG might have been equally useful. However, the design of such guides is not known to be suitable for care homes environment where they have never been used before. This study aims to explore the opinions of nurses and carers within care homes on the relevance and acceptability of individualised medication administration guides for patients with dysphagia (PWD).

Medicines related dysphagia in primary care: The prevalence of and impact on community pharmacists

Dysphagia is a common and problematic symptom characterised by varying degrees of difficulty swallowing food, fluids and medicines of differing consistencies. International primary care based studies have identified that between 1 in 4 and 1 in 5 patients have some form of dysphagia, it can affect medicines taking behaviour and healthcare professionals are largely unaware of this1,2. Similar research has not been undertaken in the UK. Adherence related pharmacy based services in the UK provide an opportunity for community pharmacists to identify the problem and facilitate better medicines use. The aim of this pilot study was to estimate the level of patient reported dysphagia in older persons using community pharmacies in the UK, describe how it affects their medicine taking behaviour and identify whether advanced pharmacy services are related to improved awareness of this.

Numerical treatment of a two-dimensional variable-order fractional nonlinear reaction-diffusion model

A two-dimensional variable-order fractional nonlinear reaction-diffusion model is considered. A second-order spatial accurate semi-implicit alternating direction method for a two-dimensional variable-order fractional nonlinear reaction-diffusion model is proposed. Stability and convergence of the semi-implicit alternating direct method are established. Finally, some numerical examples are given to support our theoretical analysis. These numerical techniques can be used to simulate a two-dimensional variable order fractional FitzHugh-Nagumo model in a rectangular domain. This type of model can be used to describe how electrical currents flow through the heart, controlling its contractions, and are used to ascertain the effects of certain drugs designed to treat arrhythmia.

In-situ carbon control in the preparation of precursors to boron carbide by a non-aqueous solution technique

Synthesis of high quality boron carbide (B4C) powders is achieved by carbothermal reduction of boron oxide (B2O3) from a condensed boric acid (H3BO3)/polyvinyl acetate (PVAc) product. Precursor solutions are prepared via free radical polymerisation of vinyl acetate (VA) monomer in methanol in the presence of dissolved H3BO3. A condensed product is then formed by flash evaporation under vacuum. As excess VA monomer is removed at the evaporation step, the polymerisation time is used to manage availability of carbon for reaction. This control of carbon facilitates dispersion of H3BO3 in solution due to the presence of residual VA monomer. B4C powders with very low residual carbon are formed at temperatures as low as 1,250 °C with a 4 hour residence time.

The fossil calibration database - A new resource for divergence dating

Fossils provide the principal basis for temporal calibrations, which are critical to the accuracy of divergence dating analyses. Translating fossil data into minimum and maximum bounds for calibrations is the most important, and often least appreciated, step of divergence dating. Properly justified calibrations require the synthesis of phylogenetic, paleontological, and geological evidence and can be difficult for non-specialists to formulate. The dynamic nature of the fossil record (e.g., new discoveries, taxonomic revisions, updates of global or local stratigraphy) requires that calibration data be updated continually lest they become obsolete. Here, we announce the Fossil Calibration Database (http://fossilcalibrations.org), a new open-access resource providing vetted fossil calibrations to the scientific community. Calibrations accessioned into this database are based on individual fossil specimens and follow best practices for phylogenetic justification and geochronological constraint. The associated Fossil Calibration Series, a calibration-themed publication series at Palaeontologia Electronica, will serve as one key pipeline for peer-reviewed calibrations to enter the database.

Assessment of the risk of failure of high voltage substations due to environmental conditions and pollution on insulators

Pollution on electrical insulators is one of the greatest causes of failure of substations subjected to high levels of salinity and environmental pollution. Considering leakage current as the main indicator of pollution on insulators, this paper focus on establishing the effect of the environmental conditions on the risk of failure due to pollution on insulators and determining the significant change in the magnitude of the pollution on the insulators during dry and humid periods. Hierarchical segmentation analysis was used to establish the effect of environmental conditions on the risk of failure due to pollution on insulators. The Kruskal-Wallis test was utilized to determine the significant changes in the magnitude of the pollution due to climate periods. An important result was the discovery that leakage current was more common on insulators during dry periods than humid ones. There was also a higher risk of failure due to pollution during dry periods. During the humid period, various temperatures and wind directions produced a small change in the risk of failure. As a technical result, operators of electrical substations can now identify the cause of an increase in risk of failure due to pollution in the area. The research provides a contribution towards the behaviour of the leakage current under conditions similar to those of the Colombian Caribbean coast and how they affect the risk of failure of the substation due to pollution.

Post-quantum key exchange for the TLS protocol from the ring learning with errors problem

Lattice-based cryptographic primitives are believed to offer resilience against attacks by quantum computers. We demonstrate the practicality of post-quantum key exchange by constructing cipher suites for the Transport Layer Security (TLS) protocol that provide key exchange based on the ring learning with errors (R-LWE) problem, we accompany these cipher suites with a rigorous proof of security. Our approach ties lattice-based key exchange together with traditional authentication using RSA or elliptic curve digital signatures: the post-quantum key exchange provides forward secrecy against future quantum attackers, while authentication can be provided using RSA keys that are issued by today's commercial certificate authorities, smoothing the path to adoption. Our cryptographically secure implementation, aimed at the 128-bit security level, reveals that the performance price when switching from non-quantum-safe key exchange is not too high. With our R-LWE cipher suites integrated into the Open SSL library and using the Apache web server on a 2-core desktop computer, we could serve 506 RLWE-ECDSA-AES128-GCM-SHA256 HTTPS connections per second for a 10 KiB payload. Compared to elliptic curve Diffie-Hellman, this means an 8 KiB increased handshake size and a reduction in throughput of only 21%. This demonstrates that provably secure post-quantum key-exchange can already be considered practical.

Phonon anomalies predict superconducting Tc for AlB2-type structures

We show that the well-known Kohn anomaly predicts Tc for ordered AlB2-type structures. We use ab initio Density Functional Theory to calculate phonon dispersions for Mg1-xAlxB2 compositions and identify a phonon anomaly with magnitude that predicts experimental values of Tc for all x. Key features of these anomalies correlate with the electronic structure of Mg1-xAlxB2. This approach predicts Tc for other known AlB2-type structures as well as new compositions. We predict that Mg0.5Ba0.5B2 will show Tc = 63.6 ± 6.6 K. Other forms of the Mg1-xBaxB2 series will also be superconductors when successfully synthesised. Our calculations predict that the end-member composition, BaB2, is likely to show a Tc significantly higher than currently achieved by other diborides although an applied pressure ~16 GPa may be required to stabilise the structure.

Characterizing fatigue: The effects of ethnicity and acculturation

It is unknown if fatigue measures like the Multidimensional Fatigue Symptom Inventory-Short Form (MFSI-SF; Stein, Jacobsen, Blanchard, & Thors, 2004) appropriately describe fatigue in Hispanics or if acculturation plays a role in fatigue. This study compared fatigue in community samples of Hispanics and Anglos. The MFSI-SF and pertinent questionnaires were administered to adults in San Diego County via telephone survey. Some differences in fatigue were observed in initial comparisons between Hispanics and Anglos, including when acculturation was considered. When age and education were controlled, Hispanics reported less general fatigue than Anglos, regardless of acculturation status, p = < .01. Exploratory factor analyses indicate that the MFSI-SF general-fatigue subscale was problematic for Hispanics. Implications, limitations, and future directions are discussed.

Genome-wide association study for radiographic vertebral fractures: A potential role for the 16q24 BMD locus

Vertebral fracture risk is a heritable complex trait. The aim of this study was to identify genetic susceptibility factors for osteoporotic vertebral fractures applying a genome-wide association study (GWAS) approach. The GWAS discovery was based on the Rotterdam Study, a population-based study of elderly Dutch individuals aged >55years; and comprising 329 cases and 2666 controls with radiographic scoring (McCloskey-Kanis) and genetic data. Replication of one top-associated SNP was pursued by de-novo genotyping of 15 independent studies across Europe, the United States, and Australia and one Asian study. Radiographic vertebral fracture assessment was performed using McCloskey-Kanis or Genant semi-quantitative definitions. SNPs were analyzed in relation to vertebral fracture using logistic regression models corrected for age and sex. Fixed effects inverse variance and Han-Eskin alternative random effects meta-analyses were applied. Genome-wide significance was set at p<5×10-8. In the discovery, a SNP (rs11645938) on chromosome 16q24 was associated with the risk for vertebral fractures at p=4.6×10-8. However, the association was not significant across 5720 cases and 21,791 controls from 14 studies. Fixed-effects meta-analysis summary estimate was 1.06 (95% CI: 0.98-1.14; p=0.17), displaying high degree of heterogeneity (I2=57%; Qhet p=0.0006). Under Han-Eskin alternative random effects model the summary effect was significant (p=0.0005). The SNP maps to a region previously found associated with lumbar spine bone mineral density (LS-BMD) in two large meta-analyses from the GEFOS consortium. A false positive association in the GWAS discovery cannot be excluded, yet, the low-powered setting of the discovery and replication settings (appropriate to identify risk effect size >1.25) may still be consistent with an effect size <1.10, more of the type expected in complex traits. Larger effort in studies with standardized phenotype definitions is needed to confirm or reject the involvement of this locus on the risk for vertebral fractures.

Predictive models for water sources with high susceptibility for bromine-containing disinfection by-product formation: Implications for water treatment

This study examines a matrix of synthetic water samples designed to include conditions that favour brominated disinfection by-product (Br-DBP) formation, in order to provide predictive models suitable for high Br-DBP forming waters such as salinity-impacted waters. Br-DBPs are known to be more toxic than their chlorinated analogues, in general, and their formation may be favoured by routine water treatment practices such as coagulation/flocculation under specific conditions; therefore, circumstances surrounding their formation must be understood. The chosen factors were bromide concentration, mineral alkalinity, bromide to dissolved organic carbon (Br/DOC) ratio and Suwannee River natural organic matter concentration. The relationships between these parameters and DBP formation were evaluated by response surface modelling of data generated using a face-centred central composite experimental design. Predictive models for ten brominated and/or chlorinated DBPs are presented, as well as models for total trihalomethanes (tTHMs) and total dihaloacetonitriles (tDHANs), and bromide substitution factors for the THMs and DHANs classes. The relationships described revealed that increasing alkalinity and increasing Br/DOC ratio were associated with increasing bromination of THMs and DHANs, suggesting that DOC lowering treatment methods that do not also remove bromide such as enhanced coagulation may create optimal conditions for Br-DBP formation in waters in which bromide is present.

Alteration of the C-terminal ligand specificity of the Erbin PDZ domain by allosteric mutational effects

Modulation of protein binding specificity is important for basic biology and for applied science. Here we explore how binding specificity is conveyed in PDZ (postsynaptic density protein-95/discs large/zonula occludens-1) domains, small interaction modules that recognize various proteins by binding to an extended C terminus. Our goal was to engineer variants of the Erbin PDZ domain with altered specificity for the most C-terminal position (position 0) where a Val is strongly preferred by the wild-type domain. We constructed a library of PDZ domains by randomizing residues in direct contact with position 0 and in a loop that is close to but does not contact position 0. We used phage display to select for PDZ variants that bind to 19 peptide ligands differing only at position 0. To verify that each obtained PDZ domain exhibited the correct binding specificity, we selected peptide ligands for each domain. Despite intensive efforts, we were only able to evolve Erbin PDZ domain variants with selectivity for the aliphatic C-terminal side chains Val, Ile and Leu. Interestingly, many PDZ domains with these three distinct specificities contained identical amino acids at positions that directly contact position 0 but differed in the loop that does not contact position 0. Computational modeling of the selected PDZ domains shows how slight conformational changes in the loop region propagate to the binding site and result in different binding specificities. Our results demonstrate that second-sphere residues could be crucial in determining protein binding specificity.