Expressing medicine side effects: assessing the effectiveness of absolute risk, relative risk, and number needed to harm, and the provision of baseline risk information

Objective: To assess the effectiveness of absolute risk, relative risk, and number needed to harm formats for medicine side effects, with and without the provision of baseline risk information. Methods: A two factor, risk increase format (relative, absolute and NNH) x baseline (present/absent) between participants design was used. A sample of 268 women was given a scenario about increase in side effect risk with third generation oral contraceptives, and were required to answer written questions to assess their understanding, satisfaction, and likelihood of continuing to take the drug. Results: Provision of baseline information significantly improved risk estimates and increased satisfaction, although the estimates were still considerably higher than the actual risk. No differences between presentation formats were observed when baseline information was presented. Without baseline information, absolute risk led to the most accurate performance. Conclusion: The findings support the importance of informing people about baseline level of risk when describing risk increases. In contrast, they offer no support for using number needed to harm. Practice implications: Health professionals should provide baseline risk information when presenting information about risk increases or decreases. More research is needed before numbers needed to harm (or treat) should be given to members of the general populations. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A relative path attenuation approximation algorithm for DVB-T systems

In the United Kingdom and in fact throughout Europe, the chosen standard for digital terrestrial television is the European Telecommunications Standards Institute (ETSI) ETN 300 744 also known as Digital Video Broadcasting - Terrestrial (DVB-T). The modulation method under this standard was chosen to be Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplex (0FD4 because of the apparent inherent capability for withstanding the effects of multipath. Within the DVB-T standard, the addition of pilot tones was included that can be used for many applications such as channel impulse response estimation or local oscillator phase and frequency offset estimation. This paper demonstrates a technique for an estimation of the relative path attenuation of a single multipath signal that can be used as a simple firmware update for a commercial set-top box. This technique can be used to help eliminate the effects of multipath(1).

Propagation of errors from a null balance terahertz reflectometer to a sample's relative water content

The THz water content index of a sample is defined and advantages in using such metric in estimating a sample's relative water content are discussed. The errors from reflectance measurements performed at two different THz frequencies using a quasi-optical null-balance reflectometer are propagated to the errors in estimating the sample water content index.

Pupal parasitoid attack influences the relative fitness of Drosophila that have encapsulated larval parasitoids

1. The evolution of host resistance to parasitoid attack will be constrained by two factors: the costs of the ability to defend against attack, and the costs of surviving actual attack. These factors have been investigated using Drosophila melanogaster and its parasitoids as a model system. The costs of defensive ability are expressed as a trade-off with larval competitive ability, whereas the costs of actual defence are exhibited in terms of reduced adult fecundity and size. 2. The costs of actual defence may be ameliorated by the host-choice decisions made by Pachycrepoideus vindemiae, a pupal parasitoid. If larvae that have successfully encapsulated a parasitoid develop into poorer quality hosts, then these may be rejected by ovipositing pupal parasitoids. 3. Pupae developing from larvae that have encapsulated the parasitoid Asobara tabida are smaller and have relatively thinner puparia. Thinner puparia are likely to be associated with a reduction in mechanical strength and possibly with a decrease in desiccation tolerance. 4. Pachycrepoideus vindemiae that develop in capsule-bearing pupae are smaller than those that emerge from previously unattacked hosts. This supports the prediction that ovipositing female P. vindemiae should avoid attacking capsule-bearing hosts. However, in choice experiments with 1-day-old pupae, P. vindemiae females oviposited preferentially in hosts containing a capsule, whereas there was no preference found with 4-day-old hosts. This appears to be a maladaptive host choice decision, as the female pupal parasitoids are preferentially attacking hosts that will result in a reduction of their own fitness. 5. The increased likelihood of attack by a pupal parasitoid is another cost of actual defence against larval parasitoid attack.

The relative fitness of Drosophila melanogaster (Diptera, Drosophilidae) that have successfully defended themselves against the parasitoid Asobara tabida (Hymenoptera, Braconidae)

Drosophila melanogaster larvae defend themselves against parasitoid attack via the process of encapsulation. However, flies that successfully defend them selves have reduced fitness as adults. Adults which carry an encapsulated parasitoid egg are smaller and females produce significantly fewer eggs than controls. Capsule-bearing males allowed repeated copulations with females do not show a reduction in their number of offspring, but those allowed to copulate only once did. No differences were found in time to first oviposition in females, or in time to first copulation in males. We interpret the results as arising from a trade-off between investing resources in factors promoting fecundity and mating success, and in defence against parasitism. The outcome of this investment decision influences the strength of selection for defence against parasitism.

Production of relative clauses in monolingual Turkish children

Research on the production of relative clauses (RCs) has shown that in English, although children start using intransitive RCs at an earlier age, more complex, bi-propositional object RCs appear later (Hamburger & Crain, 1982; Diessel and Tomasello, 2005), and children use resumptive pronouns both in acceptable and unacceptable ways (McKee, McDaniel, & Snedeker, 1998; McKee & McDaniel, 2001). To date, it is unclear whether or not the same picture emerges in Turkish, a language with an SOV word-order and overt case marking. Some studies suggested that subject RCs are more frequent in adults and children (Slobin, 1986) and yield a better performance than object RCs (Özcan, 1996), but others reported the opposite pattern (Ekmekçi, 1990). Our study addresses this issue in Turkish children and adults, and uses participants’ errors to account for the emerging asymmetry between subject and object RCs. 37 5-to-8 year old monolingual Turkish children and 23 adult controls participated in a novel elicitation task involving cards, each consisting of four different pictures (see Figure 1). There were two sets of cards, one for the participant and one for the researcher. The former had animals with accessories (e.g., a hat) whereas the latter had no accessories. Participants were instructed to hold their card without showing it to the researcher and describe the animals with particular accessories. This prompted the use of subject and object RCs. The researcher had to identify the animals in her card (see Figure 2). A preliminary repeated measures ANOVA with the factor Group (pre-school, primary-school children) showed no differences between the groups in the use of RCs (p>.1), who were therefore collapsed into one for further analyses. A repeated measures ANOVA with the factors Group (children, adults) and RC-Type (Subject, Object) showed that children used fewer RCs than adults (F(1,58)=7.54, p<.01), and both groups used fewer object than subject RCs (F(1,58)=22.46, p<.001), but there was no Group by RC-Type interaction (see Figure 3). A similar ANOVA on the rate of grammatical RCs showed a main effect of Group (F(1,58)=77.25, p<.001), a main effect of RC-Type (F(1,58)=66.33, p<.001), and an interaction of Group by RC-Type (F(1,58)=64.6, p<.001) (see Figure 4). Children made more errors than adults in object RCs (F(1,58)=87.01, p<.001), and children made more errors in object compared to subject RCs (F(1,36)=106.35, p<.001), but adults did not show this asymmetry. The error analysis revealed that children systematically avoided the object-relativizing morpheme –DIK, which requires possessive agreement with the genitive-marked subject. They also used resumptive pronouns and resumptive full-DPs in the extraction site similarly to English children (see Figure 5). These findings are in line with Slobin (1986) and Özcan (1996). Children’s errors suggest that they avoid morphosyntactic complexity of object RCs and try to preserve the canonical word order by inserting resumptive pronouns in the extraction site. Finally, cross-linguistic similarity in the acquisition of RCs in typologically different languages suggests a higher accessibility of subject RCs both at the structural (Keenan and Comrie, 1977) and conceptual level (Bock and Warren, 1986).

The relative order and inverses of recurrent networks

Differential geometry is used to investigate the structure of neural-network-based control systems. The key aspect is relative order—an invariant property of dynamic systems. Finite relative order allows the specification of a minimal architecture for a recurrent network. Any system with finite relative order has a left inverse. It is shown that a recurrent network with finite relative order has a local inverse that is also a recurrent network with the same weights. The results have implications for the use of recurrent networks in the inverse-model-based control of nonlinear systems.

An information approach to the dynamics in farm income: implications for farmland markets

The valuation of farmland is a perennial issue for agricultural policy, given its importance in the farm investment portfolio. Despite the significance of farmland values to farmer wealth, prediction remains a difficult task. This study develops a dynamic information measure to examine the informational content of farmland values and farm income in explaining the distribution of farmland values over time.

The dependence of clear-sky outgoing longwave radiation on surface temperature and relative humidity

A simulation of the earth's clear-sky long-wave radiation budget is used to examine the dependence of clear-sky outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) on surface temperature and relative humidity. the simulation uses the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts global reanalysed fields to calculate clear-sky OLR over the period from January 1979 to December 1993, thus allowing the seasonal and interannual time-scales to be resolved. the clear-sky OLR is shown to be primarily dependent on temperature changes at high latitudes and on changes in relative humidity at lower latitudes. Regions exhibiting a ‘super-greenhouse’ effect are identified and are explained by considering the changes in the convective regime associated with the Hadley circulation over the seasonal cycle, and with the Walker circulation over the interannual time-scale. the sensitivity of clear-sky OLR to changes in relative humidity diminishes with increasing relative humidity. This is explained by the increasing saturation of the water-vapour absorption bands with increased moisture. By allowing the relative humidity to vary in specified vertical slabs of the troposphere over an interannual time-scale it is shown that changes in humidity in the mid troposphere (400 to 700 hPa) are of most importance in explaining clear-sky OLR variations. Relative humidity variations do not appear to affect the positive thermodynamic water-vapour feedback significantly in response to surface temperature changes.