The impacts of climate change across the globe: a multi-sectoral assessment

The overall global-scale consequences of climate change are dependent on the distribution of impacts across regions, and there are multiple dimensions to these impacts.This paper presents a global assessment of the potential impacts of climate change across several sectors, using a harmonised set of impacts models forced by the same climate and socio-economic scenarios. Indicators of impact cover the water resources, river and coastal flooding, agriculture, natural environment and built environment sectors. Impacts are assessed under four SRES socio-economic and emissions scenarios, and the effects of uncertainty in the projected pattern of climate change are incorporated by constructing climate scenarios from 21 global climate models. There is considerable uncertainty in projected regional impacts across the climate model scenarios, and coherent assessments of impacts across sectors and regions therefore must be based on each model pattern separately; using ensemble means, for example, reduces variability between sectors and indicators. An example narrative assessment is presented in the paper. Under this narrative approximately 1 billion people would be exposed to increased water resources stress, around 450 million people exposed to increased river flooding, and 1.3 million extra people would be flooded in coastal floods each year. Crop productivity would fall in most regions, and residential energy demands would be reduced in most regions because reduced heating demands would offset higher cooling demands. Most of the global impacts on water stress and flooding would be in Asia, but the proportional impacts in the Middle East North Africa region would be larger. By 2050 there are emerging differences in impact between different emissions and socio-economic scenarios even though the changes in temperature and sea level are similar, and these differences are greater in 2080. However, for all the indicators, the range in projected impacts between different climate models is considerably greater than the range between emissions and socio-economic scenarios.

The Solar Stormwatch CME catalogue: results from the first space weather citizen science project

Solar Stormwatch was the first space weather citizen science project, the aim of which was to identify and track coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed by the Heliospheric Imagers aboard the STEREO satellites. The project has now been running for approximately 4 years, with input from >16000 citizen scientists, resulting in a dataset of >38000 time-elongation profiles of CME trajectories, observed over 18 pre-selected position angles. We present our method for reducing this data set into aCME catalogue. The resulting catalogue consists of 144 CMEs over the period January-2007 to February-2010, of which 110 were observed by STEREO-A and 77 were observed by STEREO-B. For each CME, the time-elongation profiles generated by the citizen scientists are averaged into a consensus profile along each position angle that the event was tracked. We consider this catalogue to be unique, being at present the only citizen science generated CME catalogue, tracking CMEs over an elongation range of 4 degrees out to a maximum of approximately 70 degrees. Using single spacecraft fitting techniques, we estimate the speed, direction, solar source region and latitudinal width of each CME. This shows that, at present, the Solar Stormwatch catalogue (which covers only solar minimum years) contains almost exclusively slow CMEs, with a mean speed of approximately 350 kms−1. The full catalogue is available for public access at www.met.reading.ac.uk/spate/stormwatch. This includes, for each event, the unprocessed time-elongation profiles generated by Solar Stormwatch, the consensus time-elongation profiles and a set of summary plots, as well as the estimated CME properties.

Dynamic auroral structure in the vicinity of the polar cusp - multipoint observations during southward and northward IMF

The low- and high-latitude boundary layers of the earth's magnetosphere [low-latitude boundary layer (LLBL) and mantle] play important roles in transferring momentum and energy from the solar wind to the magnetosphere-ionosphere system. Particle precipitation, field-aligned current, auroral emission, ionospheric ion drift and ground magnetic perturbations are among the low-altitude parameters that show signatures of various plasma processes in the LLBL and the magnetopause current layer. Magnetic merging events, Kelvin-Helmholtz waves, and pressure pulses excited by the variable solar wind/magnetosheath plasma are examples of boundary phenomena that may be coupled to the ionosphere via field-aligned currents. Optical auroral observation, by photometry and all-sky TV cameras, is a unique technique for investigating the spatial and temporal structure of the electron precipitation associated with such phenomena. However, the distinction between the different boundary layer plasma populations cannot in general be unambiguously determined by optics alone. Additional information, such as satellite observations of particle boundaries and field-aligned currents, is needed in order to identify the plasma source(s) and the magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling mode(s). Two categories of auroral activity/structure in the vicinity of the polar cusp are discussed in this paper, based on combined ground and satellite data. In one case, the quasi-periodic sequence of auroral events at the polar cap boundary involves accelerated electrons (< 1 keV) moving poleward (< 1 km s-1) and azimuthally along the persistent cusp/cleft arc poleward boundary with velocities (< 4 km s-1), comparable to the local ionospheric ion drift during periods of southward IMF. A critical question is whether or not the optical events signify a corresponding plasma flow across the open/closed field line boundary in such cases. Near-simultaneous observations of magnetopause flux transfer events (FTEs) and such optical/ion drift events are reported. The reverse pattern of motion of discrete auroral forms is observed during positive interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) B(Z), i.e. equatorward motion into the cusp/cleft background arc from the poleward edge. Combined satellite and ground-based information for the latter cases indicate a source mechanism, poleward of the cusp at the high-latitude magnetopause or plasma mantle, giving rise to strong momentum transfer and electron precipitation structures within a approximately 200 km-wide latitudinal zone at the cusp/cleft poleward boundary. The striking similarities of auroral electrodynamics in the cleft/mantle region during northward and southward IMF indicate that a qualitatively similar solar wind-magnetosphere coupling mode is operating. It is suggested that, in both cases, the discrete auroral forms represent temporal/spatial structure of larger-scale convection over the polar magnetosphere.

Why children differ in motivation to learn: insights from 13,000 twins from 6 countries

Little is known about why people differ in their levels of academic motivation. This study explored the etiology of individual differences in enjoyment and self-perceived ability for several school subjects in nearly 13,000 twins aged 9 to 16 from 6 countries. The results showed a striking consistency across ages, school subjects, and cultures. Contrary to common belief, enjoyment of learning and children’s perceptions of their competence were no less heritable than cognitive ability. Genetic factors explained approximately 40% of the variance and all of the observed twins’ similarity in academic motivation. Shared environmental factors, such as home or classroom, did not contribute to the twin’s similarity in academic motivation. Environmental influences stemmed entirely from individual specific experiences.

Subdiffraction fluorescence imaging of biomolecular structure and distributions with quantum dots

We introduce semiconductor quantum dot-based fluorescence imaging with approximately 2-fold increased optical resolution in three dimensions as a method that allows both studying cellular structures and spatial organization of biomolecules in membranes and subcellular organelles. Target biomolecules are labelled with quantum dots via immunocytochemistry. The resolution enhancement is achieved by three-photon absorption of quantum dots and subsequent fluorescence emission from a higher-order excitonic state. Different from conventional multiphoton microscopy, this approach can be realized on any confocal microscope without the need for pulsed excitation light. We demonstrate quantum dot triexciton imaging (QDTI) of the microtubule network of U373 cells, 3D imaging of TNF receptor 2 on the plasma membrane of HeLa cells, and multicolor 3D imaging of mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase and actin in COS-7 cells.

Clouds, aerosols, and precipitation in the marine boundary layer: an ARM Mobile Facility Deployment

The Clouds, Aerosol, and Precipitation in the Marine Boundary Layer (CAP-MBL) deployment at Graciosa Island in the Azores generated a 21-month (April 2009–December 2010) comprehensive dataset documenting clouds, aerosols, and precipitation using the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program (ARM) Mobile Facility (AMF). The scientific aim of the deployment is to gain improved understanding of the interactions of clouds, aerosols, and precipitation in the marine boundary layer. Graciosa Island straddles the boundary between the subtropics and midlatitudes in the northeast Atlantic Ocean and consequently experiences a great diversity of meteorological and cloudiness conditions. Low clouds are the dominant cloud type, with stratocumulus and cumulus occurring regularly. Approximately half of all clouds contained precipitation detectable as radar echoes below the cloud base. Radar and satellite observations show that clouds with tops from 1 to 11 km contribute more or less equally to surface-measured precipitation at Graciosa. A wide range of aerosol conditions was sampled during the deployment consistent with the diversity of sources as indicated by back-trajectory analysis. Preliminary findings suggest important two-way interactions between aerosols and clouds at Graciosa, with aerosols affecting light precipitation and cloud radiative properties while being controlled in part by precipitation scavenging. The data from Graciosa are being compared with short-range forecasts made with a variety of models. A pilot analysis with two climate and two weather forecast models shows that they reproduce the observed time-varying vertical structure of lower-tropospheric cloud fairly well but the cloud-nucleating aerosol concentrations less well. The Graciosa site has been chosen to be a permanent fixed ARM site that became operational in October 2013.

A pooled genome-wide association study of Asperger Syndrome

Asperger Syndrome (AS) is a neurodevelopmental condition characterized by impairments in social interaction and communication, alongside the presence of unusually repetitive, restricted interests and stereotyped behaviour. Individuals with AS have no delay in cognitive and language development. It is a subset of Autism Spectrum Conditions (ASC), which are highly heritable and has a population prevalence of approximately 1%. Few studies have investigated the genetic basis of AS. To address this gap in the literature, we performed a genome-wide pooled DNA association study to identify candidate loci in 612 individuals (294 cases and 318 controls) of Caucasian ancestry, using the Affymetrix GeneChip Human Mapping version 6.0 array. We identified 11 SNPs that had a p-value below 1x10-5. These SNPs were independently genotyped in the same sample. Three of the SNPs (rs1268055, rs7785891 and rs2782448) were nominally significant, though none remained significant after Bonferroni correction. Two of our top three SNPs (rs7785891 and rs2782448) lie in loci previously implicated in ASC. However, investigation of the three SNPs in the ASC genome-wide association dataset from the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium indicated that these three SNPs were not significantly associated with ASC. The effect sizes of the variants were modest, indicating that our study was not sufficiently powered to identify causal variants with precision.

Aberrant brain responses to emotionally valent words is normalised after cognitive behavioural therapy in female depressed adolescents

AbstractBackground Depression in adolescence is debilitating with high recurrence in adulthood, yet its pathophysiological mechanism remains enigmatic. To examine the interaction between emotion, cognition and treatment, functional brain responses to sad and happy distractors in an affective go/no-go task were explored before and after Cognitive Behavioural Therapy (CBT) in depressed female adolescents, and healthy participants. Methods Eighty-two Depressed and 24 healthy female adolescents, aged 12 to 17 years, performed a functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) affective go/no-go task at baseline. Participants were instructed to withhold their responses upon seeing happy or sad words. Among these participants, 13 patients had CBT over approximately 30 weeks. These participants and 20 matched controls then repeated the task. Results At baseline, increased activation in response to happy relative to neutral distractors was observed in the orbitofrontal cortex in depressed patients which was normalized after CBT. No significant group differences were found behaviourally or in brain activation in response to sad distractors. Improvements in symptoms (mean: 9.31, 95% CI: 5.35-13.27) were related at trend-level to activation changes in orbitofrontal cortex. Limitations In the follow-up section, a limited number of post-CBT patients were recruited. Conclusions To our knowledge, this is the first fMRI study addressing the effect of CBT in adolescent depression. Although a bias toward negative information is widely accepted as a hallmark of depression, aberrant brain hyperactivity to positive distractors was found and normalised after CBT. Research, assessment and treatment focused on positive stimuli could be a future consideration. Moreover, a pathophysiological mechanism distinct from adult depression may be suggested and awaits further exploration.

The N-terminal SH2 domain of Syk is required for (hem)ITAM, but not integrin, signaling in mouse platelets

We have used a novel knockin mouse to investigate the effect of disruption of phosphotyrosine binding of the N-terminal SH2 domain of Syk on platelet activation by GPVI, CLEC-2, and integrin αIIbβ3. The Syk(R41Afl/fl) mouse was crossed to a PF4-Cre(+) mouse to induce expression of the Syk mutant in the megakaryocyte/platelet lineage. Syk(R41Afl/fl;PF4-Cre) mice are born at approximately 50% of the expected frequency and have a similar phenotype to Syk(fl/fl;PF4-Cre) mice, including blood-lymphatic mixing and chyloascites. Anastomosis of the venous and lymphatic vasculatures can be seen in the mesenteric circulation accounting for rapid and continuous mixing of the 2 vasculatures. Platelet activation by CLEC-2 and GPVI is abolished in Syk(R41Afl/fl;PF4-Cre) platelets. Syk phosphorylation on Tyr519/20 is blocked in CLEC-2-stimulated platelets, suggesting a model in which binding of Syk via its N-terminal SH2 domain regulates autophosphorylation. In contrast, outside-in signaling by integrin αIIbβ3 is not altered, but it is inhibited in the presence of inhibitors of Src and Syk tyrosine kinases. These results demonstrate that αIIbβ3 regulates Syk through an ITAM-independent pathway in mice and provide novel insight into the course of events underlying Syk activation and hemITAM phosphorylation by CLEC-2.

“Very sore nights and days”: the child’s experience of illness in early modern England, c. 1580-1720

Sick children were ubiquitous in early modern England, and yet they have received very little attention from historians. Taking the elusive perspective of the child, this article explores the physical, emotional, and spiritual experience of illness in England between approximately 1580 and 1720. What was it like being ill and suffering pain? How did the young respond emotionally to the anticipation of death? It is argued that children’s experiences were characterised by profound ambivalence: illness could be terrifying and distressing, but also a source of emotional and spiritual fulfilment and joy. This interpretation challenges the common assumption amongst medical historians that the experiences of early modern patients were utterly miserable. It also sheds light on children’s emotional feelings for their parents, a subject often overlooked in the historiography of childhood. The primary sources used in this article include diaries, autobiographies, letters, the biographies of pious children, printed possession cases, doctors’ casebooks, and theological treatises concerning the afterlife.

Drinking water application of Denargard Tiamulin for control of Brachyspira pilosicoli infection of laying poultry

Avian intestinal spirochaetosis (AIS) caused by Brachyspira spp., and notably Brachyspira pilosicoli, is common in layer flocks and reportedly of increasing incidence in broilers and broiler breeders. Disease manifests as diar- rhoea, increased feed consumption, reduced growth rates and occasional mortality in broilers and these signs are shown in layers also associated with a delayed onset of lay, reduced egg weights, faecal staining of eggshells and non-productive ovaries. Treatment with Denagard® Tiamulin has been used to protect against B. pilosicoli colonisation, persistence and clinical presentation of AIS in commercial layers, but to date there has been no de- finitive study validating efficacy. Here, we used a poultry model of B. pilosicoli infection of layers to compare the impact of three doses of Denagard® Tiamulin. Four groups of thirty 17 week old commercial pre-lay birds were all challenged with B. pilosicoli strain B2904 with three oral doses two days apart. All birds were colonised within 2 days after the final oral challenge and mild onset of clinical signs were observed thereafter. A fifth group that was unchallenged and untreated was also included for comparison as healthy birds. Five days after the final oral Brachypira challenge three groups were given Denagard® Tiamulin in drinking water made up following the manufacturer's recommendations with doses verified as 58.7 ppm, 113 ppm and 225 ppm. Weight gain body condition and the level of diarrhoea of birds infected with B. pilosicoli were improved and shedding of the organism reduced significantly (p = 0.001) following treatment with Denagard® Tiamulin irrespective of dose given. The level and duration of colonisation of organs of birds infected with B. pilosicoli was also reduced. Confirming previous findings we showed that the ileum, caeca, colon, and both liver and spleen were colonised and here we demonstrated that treatment with Denagard® Tiamulin resulted in significant reduction in the numbers of Brachyspira found in each of these sites and dramatic reduction in faecal shedding (p b 0.001) to ap- proaching zero as assessed by culture of cloacal swabs. Although the number of eggs produced per bird and the level of eggshell staining appeared unaffected, egg weights of treated birds were greater than those of untreated birds for a period of approximately two weeks following treatment. These data conclusively demonstrate the ef- fectiveness of Denagard® Tiamulin in reducing B. pilosicoli infection in laying hens.

Collocating satellite-based radar and radiometer measurements — methodology and usage examples

Collocations between two satellite sensors are occasions where both sensors observe the same place at roughly the same time. We study collocations between the Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS) on-board NOAA-18 and the Cloud Profiling Radar (CPR) on-board CloudSat. First, a simple method is presented to obtain those collocations and this method is compared with a more complicated approach found in literature. We present the statistical properties of the collocations, with particular attention to the effects of the differences in footprint size. For 2007, we find approximately two and a half million MHS measurements with CPR pixels close to their centrepoints. Most of those collocations contain at least ten CloudSat pixels and image relatively homogeneous scenes. In the second part, we present three possible applications for the collocations. Firstly, we use the collocations to validate an operational Ice Water Path (IWP) product from MHS measurements, produced by the National Environment Satellite, Data and Information System (NESDIS) in the Microwave Surface and Precipitation Products System (MSPPS). IWP values from the CloudSat CPR are found to be significantly larger than those from the MSPPS. Secondly, we compare the relation between IWP and MHS channel 5 (190.311 GHz) brightness temperature for two datasets: the collocated dataset, and an artificial dataset. We find a larger variability in the collocated dataset. Finally, we use the collocations to train an Artificial Neural Network and describe how we can use it to develop a new MHS-based IWP product. We also study the effect of adding measurements from the High Resolution Infrared Radiation Sounder (HIRS), channels 8 (11.11 μm) and 11 (8.33 μm). This shows a small improvement in the retrieval quality. The collocations described in the article are available for public use.

Drinking water application of Denagard® Tiamulin for control of Brachyspira pilosicoli infection of laying poultry

Avian intestinal spirochaetosis (AIS) caused by Brachyspira spp., and notably Brachyspira pilosicoli, is common in layer flocks and reportedly of increasing incidence in broilers and broiler breeders. Disease manifests as diarrhoea,increased feed consumption, reduced growth rates and occasional mortality in broilers and these signs are shown in layers also associated with a delayed onset of lay, reduced egg weights, faecal staining of eggshells and non-productive ovaries. Treatment with Denagard® Tiamulin has been used to protect against B. pilosicoli colonisation, persistence and clinical presentation of AIS in commercial layers, but to date there has been no definitive study validating efficacy. Here, we used a poultry model of B. pilosicoli infection of layers to compare the impact of three doses of Denagard® Tiamulin. Four groups of thirty 17 week old commercial pre-lay birds were all challengedwith B. pilosicoli strain B2904with three oral doses two days apart. All birdswere colonised within 2 days after the final oral challenge and mild onset of clinical signs were observed thereafter. A fifth group that was unchallenged and untreated was also included for comparison as healthy birds. Five days after the final oral Brachypira challenge three groups were given Denagard® Tiamulin in drinking water made up following the manufacturer's recommendations with doses verified as 58.7 ppm, 113 ppm and 225 ppm. Weight gain body condition and the level of diarrhoea of birds infected with B. pilosicoli were improved and shedding of the organism reduced significantly (p = 0.001) following treatment with Denagard® Tiamulin irrespective of dose given. The level and duration of colonisation of organs of birds infected with B. pilosicoli was also reduced. Confirming previous findings we showed that the ileum, caeca, colon, and both liver and spleen were colonised and here we demonstrated that treatment with Denagard® Tiamulin resulted in significant reduction in the numbers of Brachyspira found in each of these sites and dramatic reduction in faecal shedding (p b 0.001) to approaching zero as assessed by culture of cloacal swabs. Although the number of eggs produced per bird and the level of eggshell staining appeared unaffected, egg weights of treated birds were greater than those of untreated birds for a period of approximately two weeks following treatment. These data conclusively demonstrate the effectiveness of Denagard® Tiamulin in reducing B. pilosicoli infection in laying hens.

Expression of protein kinase C isoforms during cardiac ventricular development.

The expression of protein kinase C (PKC) isoforms (PKC-alpha, PKC-beta 1, PKC-delta, PKC-epsilon, and PKC-zeta) was studied by immunoblotting in whole ventricles of rat hearts during postnatal development (1-26 days) and in the adult. PKC-alpha, PKC-beta 1, PKC-delta, PKC-epsilon, and PKC-zeta were detected in ventricles of 1-day-old rats, although PKC-alpha and PKC-beta 1 were only barely detectable. All isoforms were rapidly downregulated during development, with abundances relative to total protein declining in the adult to < 25% of 1-day-old values. PKC-beta 1 was not detectable in adult ventricles. The specific activity of PKC was also downregulated. The rat ventricular myocyte becomes amitotic soon after birth but continues to grow, increasing its protein content 40- to 50-fold between the neonate and the 300-g adult. An important question is thus whether the amount of PKC per myocyte is downregulated. With the use of isolated cells, immunoblotting showed that the contents per myocyte of PKC-alpha and PKC-epsilon increased approximately 10-fold between the neonatal and adult stages. In rat ventricles, the rank of association with the particulate fraction was PKC-delta > PKC-epsilon > PKC-zeta. Association of these isoforms with the particulate fraction was less in the adult than in the neonate. In primary cultures of ventricular myocytes prepared from neonatal rat hearts, 1 microM 12-O-tetradecanoylphorbol-13-acetate (TPA) elicited translocation of PKC-alpha, PKC-delta, and PKC-epsilon from the soluble to the particulate fraction in < 1 min, after which time no further translocation was observed. Prolonged exposure (16 h) of myocytes to 1 microM TPA caused essentially complete downregulation of these isoforms, although downregulation of PKC-epsilon was slower than for PKC-delta. In contrast, PKC-zeta was neither translocated nor downregulated by 1 microM TPA. Immunoblotting of human ventricular samples also revealed downregulation of PKC relative to total protein during fetal/postnatal development.

Stimulation of phosphatidylinositol hydrolysis, protein kinase C translocation, and mitogen-activated protein kinase activity by bradykinin in rat ventricular myocytes: dissociation from the hypertrophic response.

In ventricular myocytes cultured from neonatal rat hearts, bradykinin (BK), kallidin or BK(1-8) [(Des-Arg9)BK] stimulated PtdinsP2 hydrolysis by 3-4-fold. EC50 values were 6 nM (BK), 2 nM (kallidin), and 14 microM [BK(1-8)]. BK or kallidin stimulated the rapid (less than 30 s) translocation of more than 80% of the novel protein kinase C (PKC) isoforms nPKC-delta and nPKC-epsilon from the soluble to the particulate fraction. EC50 values for nPKC-delta translocation by BK or kallidin were 10 and 2 nM respectively. EC50 values for nPKC-epsilon translocation by BK or kallidin were 2 and 0.6 nM respectively. EC50 values for the translocation of nPKC-delta and nPKC-epsilon by BK(1-8) were more than 5 microM. The classical PKC, cPKC-alpha, and the atypical PKC, nPKC-zeta, did not translocate. BK caused activation and phosphorylation of p42-mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) (maximal at 3-5 min, 30-35% of p42-MAPK phosphorylated). p44-MAPK was similarly activated. EC50 values for p42/p44-MAPK activation by BK were less than 1 nM whereas values for BK(1-8) were more than 10 microM. The order of potency [BK approximately equal to kallidin > BK (1-8)] for the stimulation of PtdInsP2 hydrolysis, nPKC-delta and nPKC-epsilon translocation, and p42/p44-MAPK activities suggests involvement of the B2 BK receptor subtype. In addition, stimulation of all three processes by BK was inhibited by the B2BK receptor-selective antagonist HOE140 but not by the B1-selective antagonist Leu8BK(1-8). Exposure of cells to phorbol 12-myristate 13-acetate for 24 h inhibited subsequent activation of p42/p44-MAPK by BK suggesting participation of nPKC (and possibly cPKC) isoforms in the activation process. Thus, like hypertrophic agents such as endothelin-1 (ET-1) and phenylephrine (PE), BK activates PtdInsP2 hydrolysis, translocates nPKC-delta, and nPKC-epsilon, and activates p42/p44-MAPK. However, in comparison with ET-1 and PE, BK was only weakly hypertrophic as assessed by cell morphology and patterns of gene expression. This difference could not be attributed to dissimilarities between the duration of activation of p42/p44-MAPK by BK or ET-1. Thus activation of these signalling pathways alone may be insufficient to induce a powerful hypertrophic response.