Evaluating conservation and fisheries management strategies by linking spatial prioritization software and ecosystem and fisheries modelling tools

Well-designed marine protected area (MPA) networks can deliver a range of ecological, economic and social benefits, and so a great deal of research has focused on developing spatial conservation prioritization tools to help identify important areas. However, whilst these software tools are designed to identify MPA networks that both represent biodiversity and minimize impacts on stakeholders, they do not consider complex ecological processes. Thus, it is difficult to determine the impacts that proposed MPAs could have on marine ecosystem health, fisheries and fisheries sustainability. Using the eastern English Channel as a case study, this paper explores an approach to address these issues by identifying a series of MPA networks using the Marxan and Marxan with Zones conservation planning software and linking them with a spatially explicit ecosystem model developed in Ecopath with Ecosim. We then use these to investigate potential trade-offs associated with adopting different MPA management strategies. Limited-take MPAs, which restrict the use of some fishing gears, could have positive benefits for conservation and fisheries in the eastern English Channel, even though they generally receive far less attention in research on MPA network design. Our findings, however, also clearly indicate that no-take MPAs should form an integral component of proposed MPA networks in the eastern English Channel, as they not only result in substantial increases in ecosystem biomass, fisheries catches and the biomass of commercially valuable target species, but are fundamental to maintaining the sustainability of the fisheries. Synthesis and applications. Using the existing software tools Marxan with Zones and Ecopath with Ecosim in combination provides a powerful policy-screening approach. This could help inform marine spatial planning by identifying potential conflicts and by designing new regulations that better balance conservation objectives and stakeholder interests. In addition, it highlights that appropriate combinations of no-take and limited-take marine protected areas might be the most effective when making trade-offs between long-term ecological benefits and short-term political acceptability.

Performance assessment of a vertical axis turbine in a marine current flume tank and CFD modelling

As advances in numerical modelling techniques support the increased confidence in predictions from computer simulations, the need remains to have experimental verification built into the design process. This paper outlines the experimental investigation carried out on a shielded vertical axis turbine in a marine environment. The experiments consist of performance measurements and the use of particle image velocimetry on a small scale device in a marine current flume. The results demonstrate that the performance of the device can be modelled numerically; in particular, the results show that the numerical model used can correctly predict the increase in performance with Reynolds number.

Technology strategies in the process of student retention and efficiency of academic management

This article discusses the application of Information and Communication Technologies and strategies for best practices in order to capture and maintain faculty students' attention. It is based on a case study of ten years, using a complete information system. This system, in addition to be considered an ERP, to support the activities of academic management, also has a strong component of SRM that provides support to academic and administrative activities. It describes the extent to which the presented system facilitates the interaction and communication between members of the academic community, using the Internet, with services available on the Web complementing them with email, SMS and CTI. Through a perception, backed by empirical analysis and results of investigations, it demonstrates how this type of practice may raise the level of satisfaction of the community. In particular, it is possible to combat failure at school, avoid that students leave their course before its completion and also that they recommend them to potential students. In addition, such a strategy also allows strong economies in the management of the institution, increasing its value. As future work, we present the new phase of the project towards implementation of Business Intelligence to optimize the management process, making it proactive. The technological vision that guides new developments to a construction based on Web services and procedural languages is also presented.

Computational modelling of non-equilibrium condensing steam flows in low-pressure steam turbines

The steam turbines play a significant role in global power generation. Especially, research on low pressure (LP) steam turbine stages is of special importance for steam turbine man- ufactures, vendors, power plant owners and the scientific community due to their lower efficiency than the high pressure steam turbine stages. Because of condensation, the last stages of LP turbine experience irreversible thermodynamic losses, aerodynamic losses and erosion in turbine blades. Additionally, an LP steam turbine requires maintenance due to moisture generation, and therefore, it is also affecting on the turbine reliability. Therefore, the design of energy efficient LP steam turbines requires a comprehensive analysis of condensation phenomena and corresponding losses occurring in the steam tur- bine either by experiments or with numerical simulations. The aim of the present work is to apply computational fluid dynamics (CFD) to enhance the existing knowledge and understanding of condensing steam flows and loss mechanisms that occur due to the irre- versible heat and mass transfer during the condensation process in an LP steam turbine. Throughout this work, two commercial CFD codes were used to model non-equilibrium condensing steam flows. The Eulerian-Eulerian approach was utilised in which the mix- ture of vapour and liquid phases was solved by Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equa- tions. The nucleation process was modelled with the classical nucleation theory, and two different droplet growth models were used to predict the droplet growth rate. The flow turbulence was solved by employing the standard k-ε and the shear stress transport k-ω turbulence models. Further, both models were modified and implemented in the CFD codes. The thermodynamic properties of vapour and liquid phases were evaluated with real gas models. In this thesis, various topics, namely the influence of real gas properties, turbulence mod- elling, unsteadiness and the blade trailing edge shape on wet-steam flows, are studied with different convergent-divergent nozzles, turbine stator cascade and 3D turbine stator-rotor stage. The simulated results of this study were evaluated and discussed together with the available experimental data in the literature. The grid independence study revealed that an adequate grid size is required to capture correct trends of condensation phenomena in LP turbine flows. The study shows that accurate real gas properties are important for the precise modelling of non-equilibrium condensing steam flows. The turbulence modelling revealed that the flow expansion and subsequently the rate of formation of liquid droplet nuclei and its growth process were affected by the turbulence modelling. The losses were rather sensitive to turbulence modelling as well. Based on the presented results, it could be observed that the correct computational prediction of wet-steam flows in the LP turbine requires the turbulence to be modelled accurately. The trailing edge shape of the LP turbine blades influenced the liquid droplet formulation, distribution and sizes, and loss generation. The study shows that the semicircular trailing edge shape predicted the smallest droplet sizes. The square trailing edge shape estimated greater losses. The analysis of steady and unsteady calculations of wet-steam flow exhibited that in unsteady simulations, the interaction of wakes in the rotor blade row affected the flow field. The flow unsteadiness influenced the nucleation and droplet growth processes due to the fluctuation in the Wilson point.

Supporting self-management: development and evaluation of a digital resource for adults with asthma

The problem: Around 300 million people worldwide have asthma and prevalence is increasing. Support for optimal self-management can be effective in improving a range of outcomes and is cost effective, but is underutilised as a treatment strategy. Supporting optimum self-management using digital technology shows promise, but how best to do this is not clear. Aim: The purpose of this project was to explore the potential role of a digital intervention in promoting optimum self-management in adults with asthma. Methods: Following the MRC Guidance on the Development and Evaluation of Complex Interventions which advocates using theory, evidence, user testing and appropriate modelling and piloting, this project had 3 phases. Phase 1: Examination of the literature to inform phases 2 and 3, using systematic review methods and focussed literature searching. Phase 2: Developing the Living Well with Asthma website. A prototype (paper-based) version of the website was developed iteratively with input from a multidisciplinary expert panel, empirical evidence from the literature (from phase 1), and potential end users via focus groups (adults with asthma and practice nurses). Implementation and behaviour change theories informed this process. The paper-based designs were converted to the website through an iterative user centred process (think aloud studies with adults with asthma). Participants considered contents, layout, and navigation. Development was agile using feedback from the think aloud sessions immediately to inform design and subsequent think aloud sessions. Phase 3: A pilot randomised controlled trial over 12 weeks to evaluate the feasibility of a Phase 3 trial of Living Well with Asthma to support self-management. Primary outcomes were 1) recruitment & retention; 2) website use; 3) Asthma Control Questionnaire (ACQ) score change from baseline; 4) Mini Asthma Quality of Life (AQLQ) score change from baseline. Secondary outcomes were patient activation, adherence, lung function, fractional exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO), generic quality of life measure (EQ-5D), medication use, prescribing and health services contacts. Results: Phase1: Demonstrated that while digital interventions show promise, with some evidence of effectiveness in certain outcomes, participants were poorly characterised, telling us little about the reach of these interventions. The interventions themselves were poorly described making drawing definitive conclusions about what worked and what did not impossible. Phase 2: The literature indicated that important aspects to cover in any self-management intervention (digital or not) included: asthma action plans, regular health professional review, trigger avoidance, psychological functioning, self-monitoring, inhaler technique, and goal setting. The website asked users to aim to be symptom free. Key behaviours targeted to achieve this include: optimising medication use (including inhaler technique); attending primary care asthma reviews; using asthma action plans; increasing physical activity levels; and stopping smoking. The website had 11 sections, plus email reminders, which promoted these behaviours. Feedback during think aloud studies was mainly positive with most changes focussing on clarification of language, order of pages and usability issues mainly relating to navigation difficulties. Phase 3: To achieve our recruitment target 5383 potential participants were invited, leading to 51 participants randomised (25 to intervention group). Age range 16-78 years; 75% female; 28% from most deprived quintile. Nineteen (76%) of the intervention group used the website for an average of 23 minutes. Non-significant improvements in favour of the intervention group observed in the ACQ score (-0.36; 95% confidence interval: -0.96, 0.23; p=0.225), and mini-AQLQ scores (0.38; -0.13, 0.89; p=0.136). A significant improvement was observed in the activity limitation domain of the mini-AQLQ (0.60; 0.05 to 1.15; p = 0.034). Secondary outcomes showed increased patient activation and reduced reliance on reliever medication. There was no significant difference in the remaining secondary outcomes. There were no adverse events. Conclusion: Living Well with Asthma has been shown to be acceptable to potential end users, and has potential for effectiveness. This intervention merits further development, and subsequent evaluation in a Phase III full scale RCT.

Selecting candidate predictor variables for the modelling of post-discharge mortality from sepsis: a protocol development project.

Background: Post-discharge mortality is a frequent but poorly recognized contributor to child mortality in resource limited countries. The identification of children at high risk for post-discharge mortality is a critically important first step in addressing this problem. Objectives: The objective of this project was to determine the variables most likely to be associated with post-discharge mortality which are to be included in a prediction modelling study. Methods: A two-round modified Delphi process was completed for the review of a priori selected variables and selection of new variables. Variables were evaluated on relevance according to (1) prediction (2) availability (3) cost and (4) time required for measurement. Participants included experts in a variety of relevant fields. Results: During the first round of the modified Delphi process, 23 experts evaluated 17 variables. Forty further variables were suggested and were reviewed during the second round by 12 experts. During the second round 16 additional variables were evaluated. Thirty unique variables were compiled for use in the prediction modelling study. Conclusion: A systematic approach was utilized to generate an optimal list of candidate predictor variables for the incorporation into a study on prediction of pediatric post-discharge mortality in a resource poor setting.

Wild Roman chamomile extracts and phenolic compounds: enzymatic assays and molecular modelling studies with VEGFR-2 tyrosine kinase

Angiogenesis is a process by which new blood vessels are formed from the pre-existing vasculature, and it is a key process that leads to tumour development. Some studies have recognized phenolic compounds as chemopreventive agents; flavonoids, in particular, seem to suppress the growth of tumor cells modifying the cell cycle. Herein, the antiangiogenic activity of Roman chamomile (Chamaemelum nobile L.) extracts (methanolic extract and infusion) and the main phenolic compounds present (apigenin, apigenin-7-O-glucoside, caffeic acid, chlorogenic acid, luteolin, and luteolin-7-O-glucoside) was evaluated through enzymatic assays using the tyrosine kinase intracellular domain of the Vascular Endothelium Growth Factor Receptor-2 (VEGFR-2), which is a transmembrane receptor expressed fundamentally in endothelial cells involved in angiogenesis, and molecular modelling studies. The methanolic extract showed a lower IC50 value (concentration that provided 50% of VEGFR-2 inhibition) than the infusion, 269 and 301 μg mL(-1), respectively. Regarding phenolic compounds, luteolin and apigenin showed the highest capacity to inhibit the phosphorylation of VEGFR-2, leading us to believe that these compounds are involved in the activity revealed by the methanolic extract.

Constraints to the efficacy of risk management process in entrepreneurial companies

This paper highlights potential factors that affect the degree of efficacy of a formal risk management framework in entrepreneurial organisations. The understanding of entrepreneur’s self-schemas, entrepreneurial organisational culture and working environment is crucial to evaluate the efficacy of a risk management process. This research pointed out two main issues: i) the entrepreneurial decision making process with presence of biases and heuristics in judgement under uncertainty; and ii) the entrepreneurial organisational context that might create constraints to the implementation of a risk management framework.

Modelling and analysing cargo screening processes: a project outline

The efficiency of current cargo screening processes at sea and air ports is unknown as no benchmarks exists against which they could be measured. Some manufacturer benchmarks exist for individual sensors but we have not found any benchmarks that take a holistic view of the screening procedures assessing a combination of sensors and also taking operator variability into account. Just adding up resources and manpower used is not an effective way for assessing systems where human decision-making and operator compliance to rules play a vital role. For such systems more advanced assessment methods need to be used, taking into account that the cargo screening process is of a dynamic and stochastic nature. Our project aim is to develop a decision support tool (cargo-screening system simulator) that will map the right technology and manpower to the right commodity-threat combination in order to maximize detection rates. In this paper we present a project outline and highlight the research challenges we have identified so far. In addition we introduce our first case study, where we investigate the cargo screening process at the ferry port in Calais.

System dynamics modelling of the processes involving the maintenance of the naive T cell repertoire

The study of immune system aging, i.e. immunosenescence, is a relatively new research topic. It deals with understanding the processes of immuno-degradation that indicate signs of functionality loss possibly leading to death. Even though it is not possible to prevent immunosenescence, there is great benefit in comprehending its causes, which may help to reverse some of the damage done and thus improve life expectancy. One of the main factors influencing the process of immunosenescence is the number and phenotypical variety of naive T cells in an individual. This work presents a review of immunosenescence, proposes system dynamics modelling of the processes involving the maintenance of the naive T cell repertoire and presents some preliminary results.

Mobile marketing process of an international event – Case: Falun2015 FIS Nordic World Ski Championships

Any other technology has never affected daily life at this level and witnessed as speedy adaptation as the mobile phone. At the same time, mobile media has developed to be a serious marketing tool for all kinds of businesses, and the industry has grown explosively in recent years. The objective of this thesis is to inspect the mobile marketing process of an international event. This thesis is a qualitative case study. The chosen case for this thesis is the mobile marketing process of Falun2015 FIS Nordic World Ski Championships due to researcher’s interest on the topic and contacts to the people around the event. The empirical findings were acquired by conducting two interviews with three experts from the case organisation and its partner organisation. The interviews were performed as semi-structured interviews utilising the themes arising from the chosen theoretical framework. The framework distinguished six phases in the process: (i) campaign initiation, (ii) campaign design, (iii) campaign creation, (iv) permission management, (v) delivery, and (vi) evaluation and analysis. Phases one and five were not examined in this thesis because campaign initiation was not purely seen as part of the campaign implementation, and investigating phase five would have required a very technical viewpoint to the study. In addition to the interviews, some pre-established documents were exploited as a supporting data. The empirical findings of this thesis mainly follow the theoretical framework utilised. However, some modifications to the model could be made mainly related to the order of different phases. In the revised model, the actions are categorised depending on the time they should be conducted, i.e. before, during or after the event. Regardless of the categorisation, the phases can be in different order and overlapping. In addition, the business network was highly emphasised by the empirical findings and is thus added to the modified model. Five managerial recommendations can be concluded from the empirical findings of this thesis: (i) the importance of a business network should be highly valued in a mobile marketing process; (ii) clear goals should be defined for mobile marketing actions in order to make sure that everyone involved is aware them; (iii) interactivity should be perceived as part of a mobile marketing communication; (iv) enough time should be allowed for the development of a mobile marketing process in order to exploit all the potential it can offer; and (v) attention should be paid to measuring and analysing matters that are of relevance

Experimentally and coupled CFD/CSD assisted structural and aeroelastic modelling of the Javelin UAV outboard wing section

This study presents the procedure followed to make a prediction of the critical flutter speed for a composite UAV wing. At the beginning of the study, there was no information available on the materials used for the construction of the wing, and the wing internal structure was unknown. Ground vibration tests were performed in order to detect the structure’s natural frequencies and mode shapes. From tests, it was found that the wing possesses a high stiffness, presenting well separated first bending and torsional natural frequencies. Two finite element models were developed and matched to experimental results. It has been necessary to introduce some assumptions, due to the uncertainties regarding the structure. The matching process was based on natural frequencies’ sensitivity with respect to a change in the mechanical properties of the materials. Once experimental results were met, average material properties were also found. Aerodynamic coefficients for the wing were obtained by means of a CFD software. The same analysis was also conducted when the wing is deformed in its first four mode shapes. A first approximation for flutter critical speed was made with the classical V - g technique. Finally, wing’s aeroelastic behavior was simulated using a coupled CFD/CSD method, obtaining a more accurate flutter prediction. The CSD solver is based on the time integration of modal dynamic equations, requiring the extraction of mode shapes from the previously performed finite-element analysis. Results show that flutter onset is not a risk for the UAV, occurring at velocities well beyond its operative range.