Estimation of survival rate and extinction probability for stage-structured populations with overlapping life stages

The development of methods providing reliable estimates of demographic parameters (e. g., survival rates, fecundity) for wild populations is essential to better understand the ecology and conservation requirements of individual species. A number of methods exist for estimating the demographics of stage-structured populations, but inherent mathematical complexity often limits their uptake by conservation practitioners. Estimating survival rates for pond-breeding amphibians is further complicated by their complex migratory and reproductive behaviours, often resulting in nonobservable states and successive cohorts of eggs and tadpoles. Here we used comprehensive data on 11 distinct breeding toad populations (Bufo calamita) to clarify and assess the suitability of a relatively simple method [the Kiritani-Nakasuji-Manly (KNM) method] to estimate the survival rates of stage-structured populations with overlapping life stages. The study shows that the KNM method is robust and provides realistic estimates of amphibian egg and larval survival rates for species in which breeding can occur as a single pulse or over a period of several weeks. The study also provides estimates of fecundity for seven distinct toad populations and indicates that it is essential to use reliable estimates of fecundity to limit the risk of under- or overestimating the survival rates when using the KNM method. Survival and fecundity rates for B. calamita populations were then used to define population matrices and make a limited exploration of their growth and viability. The findings of the study recently led to the implementation of practical conservation measures at the sites where populations were most vulnerable to extinction. © 2010 The Society of Population Ecology and Springer.

Flexible paleoclimate age-depth models using an autoregressive gamma process

Radiocarbon dating is routinely used in paleoecology to build chronolo- gies of lake and peat sediments, aiming at inferring a model that would relate the sediment depth with its age. We present a new approach for chronology building (called “Bacon”) that has received enthusiastic attention by paleoecologists. Our methodology is based on controlling core accumulation rates using a gamma autoregressive semiparametric model with an arbitrary number of subdivisions along the sediment. Using prior knowledge about accumulation rates is crucial and informative priors are routinely used. Since many sediment cores are currently analyzed, using different data sets and prior distributions, a robust (adaptive) MCMC is very useful. We use the t-walk (Christen and Fox, 2010), a self adjusting, robust MCMC sampling algorithm, that works acceptably well in many situations. Outliers are also addressed using a recent approach that considers a Student-t model for radiocarbon data. Two examples are presented here, that of a peat core and a core from a lake, and our results are compared with other approaches.

Ultra-fast spin dynamics in the 2s2p^2 configuration of C^+ studied by time-dependent R-matrix theory

We employ time-dependent R-matrix theory to study ultra-fast dynamics in the doublet 2s2p(2) configuration of C+ for a total magnetic quantum number M = 1. In contrast to the dynamics observed for M = 0, ultra-fast dynamics for M = 1 is governed by spin dynamics in which the 2s electron acts as a flag rather than a spectator electron. Under the assumption that m(S) = 1/2, m(2s) = 1/2 allows spin dynamics involving the two 2p electrons, whereas m(2s) = -1/2 prevents spin dynamics of the two 2p electrons. For a pump-probe pulse scheme with (h) over bar omega(pump) = 10.9 eV and (h) over bar omega(probe) = 16.3 eV and both pulses six cycles long, little sign of spin dynamics is observed in the total ionization probability. Signs of spin dynamics can be observed, however, in the ejected-electron momentum distributions. We demonstrate that the ejected-electron momentum distributions can be used for unaligned targets to separate the contributions of initial M = 0 and M = 1 levels. This would, in principle, allow unaligned target ions to be used to obtain information on the different dynamics in the 2s2p(2) configuration for the M = 0 and M = 1 levels from a single experime

Study of ground-state titanium ion velocity distributions in laser-produced plasma plumes

The velocity distribution of ground-state titanium ions within a low-temperature plasma resulting from the laser ablation of a titanium target has been investigated. A KrF excimer laser was focused onto the target at moderate fluences (

A study of DNA fragmentation patterns in cells irradiated with charged particles: evidence for non-random distributions

Many studies have shown that the effectiveness of radiations of varying LET is similar when yields of dsb have been measured, despite large differences in biological response. Recent evidence has suggested however, that current techniques underestimate the yields of dsb. By monitoring the fragmentation of DNA over a wide range of fragment sizes ( 6 Mbp) by pulsed field electrophoresis, RBE values greater than 1.0 for radiations of around 100 keV/mm have been determined. The data provide evidence for the production of correlated breaks produced within cells as particle tracks traverse the nucleus. The highly ordered structure of DNA within mammalian cells may lead to clustering of breaks over distances related to the repeating unit structures of the chromatin. As well as these regionally damaged sites, a major contributor to radiation effectiveness will be the localised clustering of damage in the 1 - 20 bp region. A major effort is required to elucidate the relative importance of these levels of clustering and their importance in biological response.

Energy distributions of copper ions and atoms sputtered by atomic and molecular ions

Non-resonant multiphoton ionization combined with quadrupole and time-of-flight analysis has been used to study sputtering by both atomic and molecular ion beams. The mass spectra and energy distributions of both sputtered atoms and secondary ions produced by 3.6 keV Ar+, N+, N-2(+), CF2+ and CF3+ ion bombardment at 45 degrees to a polycrystalline copper target have been measured. The energy distributions of the copper ions and atoms are found to be different and quite complex. The ion distributions can generally be described by a linear collision cascade model, with possible evidence for a knock-on contribution. The sputtered atom distributions are partially described by a combination of linear collision cascade and dense cascade (thermal spike) models. This is interpreted as support for a time-evolving sputtering mechanism.

Computational learning of the conditional phase-type (C-Ph) distribution: Learning C-Ph distributions

This paper presents a new algorithm for learning the structure of a special type of Bayesian network. The conditional phase-type (C-Ph) distribution is a Bayesian network that models the probabilistic causal relationships between a skewed continuous variable, modelled by the Coxian phase-type distribution, a special type of Markov model, and a set of interacting discrete variables. The algorithm takes a dataset as input and produces the structure, parameters and graphical representations of the fit of the C-Ph distribution as output.The algorithm, which uses a greedy-search technique and has been implemented in MATLAB, is evaluated using a simulated data set consisting of 20,000 cases. The results show that the original C-Ph distribution is recaptured and the fit of the network to the data is discussed.

Non-competitive phenotypic differences can have a strong effect on ideal free distributions

1. We present a model of the ideal free distribution (IFD) where differences between phenotypes other than those involved in direct competition for resources are considered. We show that these post-acquisitional differences can have a dramatic impact on the predicted distributions of individuals.

2. Specifically, we predict that, when the relative abilities of phenotypes are independent of location, there will be a continuum of mixed evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) distributions (where all phenotypes are present in all patches).

3, When the relative strengths of the post-acquisitional trait in the two phenotypes differ between patches, however, we predict only a single ESS at equilibrium. Further, this distribution may be fully or partially segregated (with the distribution of at least one phenotype being spatially restricted) but it will never be mixed.

4, Our results for post-acquisitional traits mirror those of Parker (1982) for direct competitive traits. This comparison illustrates that it does not matter whether individual differences are expressed before or after competition for resources, they will still exert considerable influence on the distribution of the individuals concerned.

Investigating the efficiency of fitting Coxian phase-type distributions to health care data

Coxian phase-type distributions are becoming a popular means of representing survival times within a health care environment. They are favoured as they show a distribution as a system of phases and can allow for an easy visual representation of the rate of flow of patients through a system. Difficulties arise, however, in determining the parameter estimates of the Coxian phase-type distribution. This paper examines ways of making the fitting of the Coxian phase-type distribution less cumbersome by outlining different software packages and algorithms available to perform the fit and assessing their capabilities through a number of performance measures. The performance measures rate each of the methods and help in identifying the more efficient. Conclusions drawn from these performance measures suggest SAS to be the most robust package. It has a high rate of convergence in each of the four example model fits considered, short computational times, detailed output, convergence criteria options, along with a succinct ability to switch between different algorithms.

Dynamics of the Indonesian seas circulation. Part I – The influence of bottom topography on temperature and salinity distributions

The influence of bottom topography on the distribution of temperature and salinity in the Indonesian seas region has been studied with a high-resolution model based on the Princeton Ocean Model. One of the distinctive properties of the model is an adequate reproduction of all major topographic features in the region by the model bottom relief. The three major routes of flow of Pacific water through the region have been identified. The western route follows the flow of North Pacific Water through the Sulawesi Sea, Makassar Strait, Flores Sea, and Banda Sea. This is the main branch of the Indonesian Throughflow. The eastern routes follow the flow of South Pacific water through the eastern Indonesian seas. This water enters the region either through the Halmahera Sea or by flowing to the north around Halmahera Island into the Morotai Basin and then into the Maluku Sea. A deep southward flow of South Pacific Water fills the Seram Sea below 1200 m through the Lifamatola Passage. As it enters the Seram Sea, this overflow turns eastward at depths greater than 2000 m, then upwells in the eastern part of the Seram Sea before returning westward at ~1500-2000 m. The flow continues westward across the Seram Sea, spreading to greater depths before entering the Banda Sea at the Buru-Mangole passage. It is this water that shapes the temperature and salinity of the deep Banda Sea. Topographic elevations break the Indonesian seas region down into separate basins. The difference in the distributions of potential temperature, ?, and salinity, S, in adjacent basins is primarily due to specific properties of advection of ? and S across a topographic rise. By and large, the topographic rise blocks deep flow between basins whereas water shallower than the depth of the rise is free to flow between basins. To understand this process, the structure of simulated fields of temperature and salinity has been analyzed. To identify a range of advected ? or S, special sections over the sills with isotherms or isohalines and isotachs of normal velocity have been considered. Following this approach the impact of various topographic rises on the distribution of ? and S has been identified. There are no substantial structural changes of potential temperature and salinity distributions between seasons, though values of some parameters of temperature and salinity distributions, e.g., magnitudes of maxima and minima, can change. It is shown that the main structure of the observed distributions of temperature and salinity is satisfactorily reproduced by the model throughout the entire domain.