Determinação de vazões extremas para diversos períodos de retorno para o Rio Paraguai utilizando métodos estatísticos

No presente trabalho foram analisadas as distribuições de probabilidade teórica Normal, Log-Normal, Exponencial, Gama e Weibull, para estimar as vazões máximas e mínimas anuais para o rio Paraguai, utilizando dados de uma estação fluviométrica localizado na cidade de Cáceres-MT. Os testes de Kolmogorov-Smirnov e Qui-Quadrado foram utilizados para verificar a aderência das probabilidades estimadas às freqüências observadas. A série utilizada compreende vazões máximas e mínimas anuais dos anos de 1966 a 2003, excluindo- se dados com falhas. Verificou-se que o melhor ajuste dos valores anuais de vazão máximas e mínimas são referentes a distribuição Gama e Weibull, respectivamente, conforme demonstrado pelo teste de Kolmogorov-Smirnov. Palavras-chave: Previsão de Vazão, teste de aderência.

Avaliação clinimétrica do desfecho em uma série de casos de Lúpus Eritomatoso Sistêmico Juvenil (LESJ)

Pós-graduação em Saúde Coletiva - FMB

Uso de aparelho de amplificação sonora individual por idosos: estudo SABE - saúde, bem- estar e envelhecimento

PURPOSE: Describe hearing aid use by the elderly population in the city of São Paulo and identify associated factors. METHODS: A cross-sectional, descriptive, quantitative study integrated with the SABE (health, well-being and aging) project developed in 2006. A total of 1.115 individuals aged 65 or over were interviewed. Sample selection occurred in two stages, with replacement and probabilities proportional to the population to complement those aged 75 or over. Structured questionnaires and validated instruments were used. The data were weighted, the Rao-Scott test was used for univariate analysis and backward stepwise logistic regression was used for multivariate analysis, performed on Stata 10® software. RESULTS: Three hundred and seventy-seven subjects (30.4%) were classified as hearing impaired and 10.1% of these reported using hearing aids. To acquire the devices, 78.8% used their own resources and 16.9% acquired them through the Brazilian public health system (SUS). Among non-users of hearing aids, 16.6% reported prior indication; however, 8.6% were unable to adapt to the device and 8.0% could not afford to acquire one. Hearing aid use was associated with lower prevalence of probable dementia. CONCLUSION: The low number of hearing aid users indicates the difficulties elderly people face in acquiring them and/or that the health services face in effectively helping them to adapt. These findings may influence the quality of life of elderly with hearing impairment, given the association with probable dementia revealed by this study.

Modelo epidemiológico discreto para a transmissão de Acinetobacter baumannii em UTIs brasileiras

Pós-graduação em Biometria - IBB

Some Comments Regarding the Synthetic (X)over-bar Chart

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

A new probabilistic canopy dynamics model (SLCD) that is suitable for evergreen and deciduous forest ecosystems

There are strong uncertainties regarding LAI dynamics in forest ecosystems in response to climate change. While empirical growth & yield models (G&YMs) provide good estimations of tree growth at the stand level on a yearly to decennial scale, process-based models (PBMs) use LAI dynamics as a key variable for enabling the accurate prediction of tree growth over short time scales. Bridging the gap between PBMs and G&YMs could improve the prediction of forest growth and, therefore, carbon, water and nutrient fluxes by combining modeling approaches at the stand level.Our study aimed to estimate monthly changes of leaf area in response to climate variations from sparse measurements of foliage area and biomass. A leaf population probabilistic model (SLCD) was designed to simulate foliage renewal. The leaf population was distributed in monthly cohorts, and the total population size was limited depending on forest age and productivity. Foliage dynamics were driven by a foliation function and the probabilities ruling leaf aging or fall. Their formulation depends on the forest environment.The model was applied to three tree species growing under contrasting climates and soil types. In tropical Brazilian evergreen broadleaf eucalypt plantations, the phenology was described using 8 parameters. A multi-objective evolutionary algorithm method (MOEA) was used to fit the model parameters on litterfall and LAI data over an entire stand rotation. Field measurements from a second eucalypt stand were used to validate the model. Seasonal LAI changes were accurately rendered for both sites (R-2 = 0.898 adjustment, R-2 = 0.698 validation). Litterfall production was correctly simulated (R-2 = 0.562, R-2 = 0.4018 validation) and may be improved by using additional validation data in future work. In two French temperate deciduous forests (beech and oak), we adapted phenological sub-modules of the CASTANEA model to simulate canopy dynamics, and SLCD was validated using LAI measurements. The phenological patterns were simulated with good accuracy in the two cases studied. However, IA/max was not accurately simulated in the beech forest, and further improvement is required.Our probabilistic approach is expected to contribute to improving predictions of LAI dynamics. The model formalism is general and suitable to broadleaf forests for a large range of ecological conditions. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Pruning methods to MLP neural networks considering proportional apparent error rate for classification problems with unbalanced data

This article deals with classification problems involving unequal probabilities in each class and discusses metrics to systems that use multilayer perceptrons neural networks (MLP) for the task of classifying new patterns. In addition we propose three new pruning methods that were compared to other seven existing methods in the literature for MLP networks. All pruning algorithms presented in this paper have been modified by the authors to do pruning of neurons, in order to produce fully connected MLP networks but being small in its intermediary layer. Experiments were carried out involving the E. coli unbalanced classification problem and ten pruning methods. The proposed methods had obtained good results, actually, better results than another pruning methods previously defined at the MLP neural network area. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Determinação de genes mórbidos e drogáveis a partir da construção e análise da rede integrada de interações moleculares entre genes humanos

The discovering process of new morbid genes and new target proteins for drugs have been shown to be very costly and laborious. Having in view cutting costs and speeding up this process, we propose, in this work, a new method to determine the gene druggability score and morbidity score, the probabilities of the protein encoded by the gene have the characteristics that make it a new target for drugs and in case of an alteration in that gene, we observed a phenotype that characterizes a genetic based illness. To determine these characteristics, we built, analyzed and determined the characteristics of the topology of the integrated molecular interactions network among human genes containing physical interactions between proteins, metabolic interactions and interactions of transcriptional regulation, and included other data such as level of gene transcription and cellular localization of the protein encoded by the gene. We tested our model in training sets and achieved results equal or better than the ones achieved by similar methods in the literature. Finally, with the purpose of investigating whether the assigned scores resembles the potential druggabilities and morbities of the previously unclassi ed genes, we looked for evidences in biomedical literature supporting the potential druggability and morbidity status of genes with the 10 highest scores. We found clear evidences for 73% and 90% of potential druggable and morbid genes respectively

Estudo do método Monte Carlo e sua aplicação no modelo SIR

In this work we present a discussion and the results of the simulation of disease spread using the Monte Carlo method. The dissemination model is the SIR model and presents as main characteristic the disease evolution among individuals of the population subdivided into three groups: susceptible (S), infected (I) and recovered (R). The technique used is based on the introduction of transition probabilities S-> I and I->R to do the spread of the disease, they are governed by a Poisson distribution. The simulation of the spread of disease was based on the randomness introduced, taking into account two basic parameters of the model, the power of infection and average time of the disease. Considering appropriate values of these parameters, the results are presented graphically and analysis of these results gives information on a group of individuals react to the changes of these parameters and what are the chances of a disease becoming a pandemic

Estudo da sinistralidade no mercado securitário de veículos: uma abordagem multivariada

Pós-graduação em Engenharia de Produção - FEB

Jogo Mega-Duque: uma proposta para o ensino de probabilidade

Pós-graduação em Matemática em Rede Nacional - IBILCE

Projeto mecânico de um modelo para túnel de vento e validação de seus componentes à partir de simulações em software de elementos finitos

The objective of this study was to develop a model that allows testing in the wind tunnel at high angles of attack and validates its most critical components by analyzing the results of simulations in finite element software. During the project this structure suffered major loads identified during the flight conditions and, from these, we calculated the stresses in critical regions defined as the parts of the model that have higher failure probabilities. All aspects associated with Load methods, mesh refining and stress analysis were taken into account in this approach. The selection of the analysis software was based on project needs, seeking greater ease of modeling and simulation. We opted for the software ANSYS® since the entire project is being developed in CAD platforms enabling a friendly integration between software's modeling and analysis

Máquinas de somar estocásticas e conjuntos de Julia

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Resonance capture at arbitrary inclination

Resonance capture is studied numerically in the three-body problem for arbitrary inclinations. Massless particles are set to drift from outside the 1: 5 resonance with a Jupiter-mass planet thereby encountering the web of the planet's diverse mean motion resonances. Randomly constructed samples explore parameter space for inclinations from 0 to 180 degrees with 5 degrees increments totalling nearly 6 x 10(5) numerical simulations. 30 resonances internal and external to the planet's location are monitored. We find that retrograde resonances are unexpectedly more efficient at capture than prograde resonances and that resonance order is not necessarily a good indicator of capture efficiency at arbitrary inclination. Capture probability drops significantly at moderate sample eccentricity for initial inclinations in the range [10 degrees,110 degrees]. Orbit inversion is possible for initially circular orbits with inclinations in the range [60 degrees,130 degrees]. Capture in the 1:1 co-orbital resonance occurs with great likelihood at large retrograde inclinations. The planet's orbital eccentricity, if larger than 0.1, reduces the capture probabilities through the action of the eccentric Kozai-Lidov mechanism. A capture asymmetry appears between inner and outer resonances as prograde orbits are preferentially trapped in inner resonances. The relative capture efficiency of retrograde resonance suggests that the dynamical lifetimes of Damocloids and Centaurs on retrograde orbits must be significantly larger than those on prograde orbits implying that the recently identified asteroids in retrograde resonance, 2006 BZ8, 2008 SO218, 2009 QY6 and 1999 LE31 may be among the oldest small bodies that wander between the outer giant planets.

Estimation of a preference map of new consumers for spatial load forecasting simulation methods using a spatial analysis of points

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)