961 resultados para Probabilistic choice models


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his study presents an improved method of dealing with embedded tax liabilities in portfolio choice. We argue that using a risk-free discount rate is appropriate for calculating the present value of future tax liabilities. Supportive of recent research, our results found a taxation-induced preference of holding equities over bonds, and a location preference of holding equities in the taxable account and bonds in retirement accounts. These important findings contrast with traditional investment advice which suggests a greater capacity for risk in retirement accounts.

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Process mining encompasses the research area which is concerned with knowledge discovery from information system event logs. Within the process mining research area, two prominent tasks can be discerned. First of all, process discovery deals with the automatic construction of a process model out of an event log. Secondly, conformance checking focuses on the assessment of the quality of a discovered or designed process model in respect to the actual behavior as captured in event logs. Hereto, multiple techniques and metrics have been developed and described in the literature. However, the process mining domain still lacks a comprehensive framework for assessing the goodness of a process model from a quantitative perspective. In this study, we describe the architecture of an extensible framework within ProM, allowing for the consistent, comparative and repeatable calculation of conformance metrics. For the development and assessment of both process discovery as well as conformance techniques, such a framework is considered greatly valuable.

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For the evaluation, design, and planning of traffic facilities and measures, traffic simulation packages are the de facto tools for consultants, policy makers, and researchers. However, the available commercial simulation packages do not always offer the desired work flow and flexibility for academic research. In many cases, researchers resort to designing and building their own dedicated models, without an intrinsic incentive (or the practical means) to make the results available in the public domain. To make matters worse, a substantial part of these efforts pertains to rebuilding basic functionality and, in many respects, reinventing the wheel. This problem not only affects the research community but adversely affects the entire traffic simulation community and frustrates the development of traffic simulation in general. For this problem to be addressed, this paper describes an open source approach, OpenTraffic, which is being developed as a collaborative effort between the Queensland University of Technology, Australia; the National Institute of Informatics, Tokyo; and the Technical University of Delft, the Netherlands. The OpenTraffic simulation framework enables academies from geographic areas and disciplines within the traffic domain to work together and contribute to a specific topic of interest, ranging from travel choice behavior to car following, and from response to intelligent transportation systems to activity planning. The modular approach enables users of the software to focus on their area of interest, whereas other functional modules can be regarded as black boxes. Specific attention is paid to a standardization of data inputs and outputs for traffic simulations. Such standardization will allow the sharing of data with many existing commercial simulation packages.

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A pressing cost issue facing construction is the procurement of off-site pre-manufactured assemblies. In order to encourage Australian adoption of off-site manufacture (OSM), a new approach to underlying processes is required. The advent of object oriented digital models for construction design assumes intelligent use of data. However, the construction production system relies on traditional methods and data sources and is expected to benefit from the application of well-established business process management techniques. The integration of the old and new data sources allows for the development of business process models which, by capturing typical construction processes involving OSM, provides insights into such processes. This integrative approach is the foundation of research into the use of OSM to increase construction productivity in Australia. The purpose of this study is to develop business process models capturing the procurement, resources and information flow of construction projects. For each stage of the construction value chain, a number of sub-processes are identified. Business Process Modelling Notation (BPMN), a mainstream business process modelling standard, is used to create base-line generic construction process models. These models identify OSM decision-making points that could provide cost reductions in procurement workflow and management systems. This paper reports on phase one of an on-going research aiming to develop a proto-type workflow application that can provide semi-automated support to construction processes involving OSM and assist in decision-making in the adoption of OSM thus contributing to a sustainable built environment.

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Assessing and prioritising cost-effective strategies to mitigate the impacts of traffic incidents and accidents on non-recurrent congestion on major roads represents a significant challenge for road network managers. This research examines the influence of numerous factors associated with incidents of various types on their duration. It presents a comprehensive traffic incident data mining and analysis by developing an incident duration model based on twelve months of incident data obtained from the Australian freeway network. Parametric accelerated failure time (AFT) survival models of incident duration were developed, including log-logistic, lognormal, and Weibul-considering both fixed and random parameters, as well as a Weibull model with gamma heterogeneity. The Weibull AFT models with random parameters were appropriate for modelling incident duration arising from crashes and hazards. A Weibull model with gamma heterogeneity was most suitable for modelling incident duration of stationary vehicles. Significant variables affecting incident duration include characteristics of the incidents (severity, type, towing requirements, etc.), and location, time of day, and traffic characteristics of the incident. Moreover, the findings reveal no significant effects of infrastructure and weather on incident duration. A significant and unique contribution of this paper is that the durations of each type of incident are uniquely different and respond to different factors. The results of this study are useful for traffic incident management agencies to implement strategies to reduce incident duration, leading to reduced congestion, secondary incidents, and the associated human and economic losses.

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Shoulder joint is a complex integration of soft and hard tissues. It plays an important role in performing daily activities and can be considered as a perfect compromise between mobility and stability. However, shoulder is vulnerable to complications such as dislocations and osteoarthritis. Finite element (FE) models have been developed to understand shoulder injury mechanisms, implications of disease on shoulder complex and in assessing the quality of shoulder implants. Further, although few, Finite element shoulder models have also been utilized to answer important clinical questions such as the difference between a normal and osteoarthritic shoulder joint. However, due to the absence of experimental validation, it is questionable whether the constitutive models applied in these FE models are adequate to represent mechanical behaviors of shoulder elements (Cartilages, Ligaments, Muscles etc), therefore the confidence of using current models in answering clinically relevant question. The main objective of this review is to critically evaluate the existing FE shoulder models that have been used to investigate clinical problems. Due concern is given to check the adequacy of representative constitutive models of shoulder elements in drawing clinically relevant conclusion. Suggestions have been given to improve the existing shoulder models by inclusion of adequate constitutive models for shoulder elements to confidently answer clinically relevant questions.

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In the field of face recognition, Sparse Representation (SR) has received considerable attention during the past few years. Most of the relevant literature focuses on holistic descriptors in closed-set identification applications. The underlying assumption in SR-based methods is that each class in the gallery has sufficient samples and the query lies on the subspace spanned by the gallery of the same class. Unfortunately, such assumption is easily violated in the more challenging face verification scenario, where an algorithm is required to determine if two faces (where one or both have not been seen before) belong to the same person. In this paper, we first discuss why previous attempts with SR might not be applicable to verification problems. We then propose an alternative approach to face verification via SR. Specifically, we propose to use explicit SR encoding on local image patches rather than the entire face. The obtained sparse signals are pooled via averaging to form multiple region descriptors, which are then concatenated to form an overall face descriptor. Due to the deliberate loss spatial relations within each region (caused by averaging), the resulting descriptor is robust to misalignment & various image deformations. Within the proposed framework, we evaluate several SR encoding techniques: l1-minimisation, Sparse Autoencoder Neural Network (SANN), and an implicit probabilistic technique based on Gaussian Mixture Models. Thorough experiments on AR, FERET, exYaleB, BANCA and ChokePoint datasets show that the proposed local SR approach obtains considerably better and more robust performance than several previous state-of-the-art holistic SR methods, in both verification and closed-set identification problems. The experiments also show that l1-minimisation based encoding has a considerably higher computational than the other techniques, but leads to higher recognition rates.

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This article focuses on the relationship between private insurance status and dental service utilisation in Australia using data between 1995 and 2001. This article employs joint maximum likelihood to estimate models of time since last dental visit treating private ancillary health insurance (PAHI) as endogenous. The sensitivity of results to the choice between two different but related types of instrumental variables is examined. We find robust evidence in both 1995 and 2001 that individuals with a PAHI policy make significantly more frequent dental consultations relative to those without such coverage. A comparison of the 1995 and 2001 results, however, suggests that there has been an increasing role of PAHI in terms of the frequency of dental consultations over time. This seems intuitive given the trends in the price of unsubsidised private dental consultations. In terms of policy, our results suggest that while government measures to increase private health insurance coverage in Australia has been successful to a significant degree, it may have come at some cost in terms of socio-economic inequality as the privately insured are provided much better access to care and financial protection.

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Determining the properties and integrity of subchondral bone in the developmental stages of osteoarthritis, especially in a form that can facilitate real-time characterization for diagnostic and decision-making purposes, is still a matter for research and development. This paper presents relationships between near infrared absorption spectra and properties of subchondral bone obtained from 3 models of osteoarthritic degeneration induced in laboratory rats via: (i) menisectomy (MSX); (ii) anterior cruciate ligament transaction (ACL); and (iii) intra-articular injection of mono-ido-acetate (1 mg) (MIA), in the right knee joint, with 12 rats per model group (N = 36). After 8 weeks, the animals were sacrificed and knee joints were collected. A custom-made diffuse reflectance NIR probe of diameter 5 mm was placed on the tibial surface and spectral data were acquired from each specimen in the wavenumber range 4000–12 500 cm− 1. After spectral acquisition, micro computed tomography (micro-CT) was performed on the samples and subchondral bone parameters namely: bone volume (BV) and bone mineral density (BMD) were extracted from the micro-CT data. Statistical correlation was then conducted between these parameters and regions of the near infrared spectra using multivariate techniques including principal component analysis (PCA), discriminant analysis (DA), and partial least squares (PLS) regression. Statistically significant linear correlations were found between the near infrared absorption spectra and subchondral bone BMD (R2 = 98.84%) and BV (R2 = 97.87%). In conclusion, near infrared spectroscopic probing can be used to detect, qualify and quantify changes in the composition of the subchondral bone, and could potentially assist in distinguishing healthy from OA bone as demonstrated with our laboratory rat models.

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Three dimensional cellular models that mimic disease are being increasingly investigated and have opened an exciting new research area into understanding pathomechanisms. The advantage of 3D in vitro disease models is that they allow systematic and in-depth studies of physiological and pathophysiological processes with less costs and ethical concerns that have arisen with animal models. The purpose of the 3D approach is to allow crosstalk between cells and microenvironment, and with cues from the microenvironment, cells can assemble their niche similar to in vivo conditions. The use of 3D models for mimicking disease processes such as cancer, osteoarthritis etc., is only emerging and allows multidisciplinary teams consisting of tissue engineers, biologist biomaterial scientists and clinicians to work closely together. While in vitro systems require rigorous testing before they can be considered as replicates of the in vivo model, major steps have been made, suggesting that they will become powerful tools for studying physiological and pathophysiological processes. This paper aims to summarize some of the existing 3D models and proposes a novel 3D model of the eye structures that are involved in the most common cause of blindness in the Western World, namely age-related macular degeneration (AMD).

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Identifying the design features that impact construction is essential to developing cost effective and constructible designs. The similarity of building components is a critical design feature that affects method selection, productivity, and ultimately construction cost and schedule performance. However, there is limited understanding of what constitutes similarity in the design of building components and limited computer-based support to identify this feature in a building product model. This paper contributes a feature-based framework for representing and reasoning about component similarity that builds on ontological modelling, model-based reasoning and cluster analysis techniques. It describes the ontology we developed to characterize component similarity in terms of the component attributes, the direction, and the degree of variation. It also describes the generic reasoning process we formalized to identify component similarity in a standard product model based on practitioners' varied preferences. The generic reasoning process evaluates the geometric, topological, and symbolic similarities between components, creates groupings of similar components, and quantifies the degree of similarity. We implemented this reasoning process in a prototype cost estimating application, which creates and maintains cost estimates based on a building product model. Validation studies of the prototype system provide evidence that the framework is general and enables a more accurate and efficient cost estimating process.

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Confusion exists as to the age of the Abor Volcanics of NE India. Some consider the unit to have been emplaced in the Early Permian, others the Early Eocene, a difference of ∼230 million years. The divergence in opinion is significant because fundamentally different models explaining the geotectonic evolution of India depend on the age designation of the unit. Paleomagnetic data reported here from several exposures in the type locality of the formation in the lower Siang Valley indicate that steep dipping primary magnetizations (mean = 72.7 ± 6.2°, equating to a paleo-latitude of 58.1°) are recorded in the formation. These are only consistent with the unit being of Permian age, possibly Artinskian based on a magnetostratigraphic argument. Plate tectonic models for this time consistently show the NE corner of the sub-continent >50°S; in the Early Eocene it was just north of the equator, which would have resulted in the unit recording shallow directions. The mean declination is counter-clockwise rotated by ∼94°, around half of which can be related to the motion of the Indian block; the remainder is likely due local Himalayan-age thrusting in the Eastern Syntaxis. Several workers have correlated the Abor Volcanics with broadly coeval mafic volcanic suites in Oman, NE Pakistan–NW India and southern Tibet–Nepal, which developed in response to the Cimmerian block peeling-off eastern Gondwana in the Early-Middle Permian, but we believe there are problems with this model. Instead, we suggest that the Abor basalts relate to India–Antarctica/India–Australia extension that was happening at about the same time. Such an explanation best accommodates the relevant stratigraphical and structural data (present-day position within the Himalayan thrust stack), as well as the plate tectonic model for Permian eastern Gondwana.