892 resultados para Predictive Inference


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PURPOSE: To analyze the usefulness of the weight gain/height gain ratio from birth to two and three years of age as a predictive risk indicator of excess weight at preschool age. METHODS: The weight and height/length of 409 preschool children at daycare centers were measured according to internationally recommended rules. The weight values and body mass indices of the children were transformed into a z-score per the standard method described by the World Health Organization. The Pearson correlation coefficients (rP) and the linear regressions between the anthropometric parameters and the body mass index z-scores of preschool children were statistically analyzed (alpha = 0.05). RESULTS: The mean age of the study population was 3.2 years (± 0.3 years). The prevalence of excess weight was 28.8%, and the prevalence of overweight and obesity was 8.8%. The correlation coefficients between the body mass index z-scores of the preschool children and the birth weights or body mass indices at birth were low (0.09 and 0.10, respectively). There was a high correlation coefficient (rP = 0.79) between the mean monthly gain of weight and the body mass index z-score of preschool children. A higher coefficient (rP = 0.93) was observed between the ratio of the mean weight gain per height gain (g/cm) and the preschool children body mass index z-score. The coefficients and their differences were statistically significant. CONCLUSION: Regardless of weight or length at birth, the mean ratio between the weight gain per g/cm of height growth from birth presented a strong correlation with the body mass index of preschool children. These results suggest that this ratio may be a good indicator of the risk of excess weight and obesity in preschool-aged children.

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Estudou-se o efeito da infiltração de magnésio e cálcio no desenvolvimento de sintomas de bitter pit de maçãs 'Gala'. Examinou-se, também, a eficiência da infiltração de magnésio e da aceleração da maturação de maçãs 'Royal Gala' como métodos de previsão da ocorrência de bitter pit após o armazenamento. No primeiro experimento, maçãs 'Gala' foram infiltradas com MgCl2; CaCl2 ou MgCl2 mais CaCl2. No segundo experimento, maçãs 'Royal Gala' foram infiltradas com MgCl2; ou imersas em solução contendo ethephon por cinco minutos. Como controle, frutos de cada cultivar foram armazenados em atmosfera controlada por seis meses mais 18 dias a 20°C. Frutos infiltrados com MgCl2 apresentaram significativo acréscimo na incidência e severidade de bitter pit, proporcional à concentração de MgCl2 na solução. Frutos infiltrados com CaCl2 não apresentaram sintomas de bitter pit. A aceleração da maturação de maçãs 'Royal Gala' na colheita foi efetiva na previsão de bitter pit após o armazenamento.

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Diagnostic methods have been an important tool in regression analysis to detect anomalies, such as departures from error assumptions and the presence of outliers and influential observations with the fitted models. Assuming censored data, we considered a classical analysis and Bayesian analysis assuming no informative priors for the parameters of the model with a cure fraction. A Bayesian approach was considered by using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods with Metropolis-Hasting algorithms steps to obtain the posterior summaries of interest. Some influence methods, such as the local influence, total local influence of an individual, local influence on predictions and generalized leverage were derived, analyzed and discussed in survival data with a cure fraction and covariates. The relevance of the approach was illustrated with a real data set, where it is shown that, by removing the most influential observations, the decision about which model best fits the data is changed.

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Turmeric (Curcuma longa) is a triploid, vegetatively propagated crop introduced early during the colonization of Brazil. Turmeric rhizomes are ground into a powder used as a natural dye in the food industry, although recent research suggests a greater potential for the development of drugs and cosmetics. In Brazil, little is known about the genetic variability available for crop improvement. We examined the genetic diversity among turmeric accessions from a Brazilian germplasm collection comprising 39 accessions collected from the States of Goias, Mato Grosso do Sul, Minas Gerais, Sao Paulo, and Para. For comparison, 18 additional genotypes were analyzed, including samples from India and Puerto Rico. Total DNA was extracted from lyophilized leaf tissue and genetic analysis was performed using 17 microsatellite markers (single-sequence repeats). Shannon-Weiner indexes ranged from 0.017 (Minas Gerais) to 0.316 (Sao Paulo). Analyses of molecular variance (AMOVA) demonstrated major differences between countries (63.4%) and that most of the genetic diversity in Brazil is found within states (75.3%). Genotypes from Sao Paulo State were the most divergent and potentially useful for crop improvement. Structure analysis indicated two main groups of accessions. These results can help target future collecting efforts for introduction of new materials needed to develop more productive and better adapted cultivars.

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Natural products have widespread biological activities, including inhibition of mitochondrial enzyme systems. Some of these activities, for example cytotoxicity, may be the result of alteration of cellular bioenergetics. Based on previous computer-aided drug design (CADD) studies and considering reported data on structure-activity relationships (SAR), an assumption regarding the mechanism of action of natural products against parasitic infections involves the NADH-oxidase inhibition. In this study, chemometric tools, such as: Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Consensus PCA (CPCA), and partial least squares regression (PLS), were applied to a set of forty natural compounds, acting as NADH-oxidase inhibitors. The calculations were performed using the VolSurf+ program. The formalisms employed generated good exploratory and predictive results. The independent variables or descriptors having a hydrophobic profile were strongly correlated to the biological data.

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Background: The post-genomic era has brought new challenges regarding the understanding of the organization and function of the human genome. Many of these challenges are centered on the meaning of differential gene regulation under distinct biological conditions and can be performed by analyzing the Multiple Differential Expression (MDE) of genes associated with normal and abnormal biological processes. Currently MDE analyses are limited to usual methods of differential expression initially designed for paired analysis. Results: We proposed a web platform named ProbFAST for MDE analysis which uses Bayesian inference to identify key genes that are intuitively prioritized by means of probabilities. A simulated study revealed that our method gives a better performance when compared to other approaches and when applied to public expression data, we demonstrated its flexibility to obtain relevant genes biologically associated with normal and abnormal biological processes. Conclusions: ProbFAST is a free accessible web-based application that enables MDE analysis on a global scale. It offers an efficient methodological approach for MDE analysis of a set of genes that are turned on and off related to functional information during the evolution of a tumor or tissue differentiation. ProbFAST server can be accessed at http://gdm.fmrp.usp.br/probfast.

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Background: Genome wide association studies (GWAS) are becoming the approach of choice to identify genetic determinants of complex phenotypes and common diseases. The astonishing amount of generated data and the use of distinct genotyping platforms with variable genomic coverage are still analytical challenges. Imputation algorithms combine directly genotyped markers information with haplotypic structure for the population of interest for the inference of a badly genotyped or missing marker and are considered a near zero cost approach to allow the comparison and combination of data generated in different studies. Several reports stated that imputed markers have an overall acceptable accuracy but no published report has performed a pair wise comparison of imputed and empiric association statistics of a complete set of GWAS markers. Results: In this report we identified a total of 73 imputed markers that yielded a nominally statistically significant association at P < 10(-5) for type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and compared them with results obtained based on empirical allelic frequencies. Interestingly, despite their overall high correlation, association statistics based on imputed frequencies were discordant in 35 of the 73 (47%) associated markers, considerably inflating the type I error rate of imputed markers. We comprehensively tested several quality thresholds, the haplotypic structure underlying imputed markers and the use of flanking markers as predictors of inaccurate association statistics derived from imputed markers. Conclusions: Our results suggest that association statistics from imputed markers showing specific MAF (Minor Allele Frequencies) range, located in weak linkage disequilibrium blocks or strongly deviating from local patterns of association are prone to have inflated false positive association signals. The present study highlights the potential of imputation procedures and proposes simple procedures for selecting the best imputed markers for follow-up genotyping studies.

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Entry inhibitor is a new class of drugs that target the viral envelope protein. This region is variable; hence resistance to these drugs may be present before treatment. The aim of this study was to analyze the frequency of patients failing treatment with transcriptase reverse and protease inhibitors that would respond to the entry inhibitors Enfuvirtide, Maraviroc, and BMS-806. The study included 100 HIV-1 positive patients from one outpatient clinic in the city of Sao Paulo, for whom a genotype test was requested due to treatment failure. Proviral DNA was amplified and sequenced for regions of gp120 and gp41. A total of 80 could be sequenced and from those, 73 (91.3%), 5 (6.3%) and 2 (2.5%) were classified as subtype B, F, and recombinants (B/F and B/C), respectively. CXCR4 co-receptor use was predicted in 30% of the strains. Primary resistance to Enfuvirtide was found in 1.3%, following the AIDS Society consensus list, and 10% would be considered resistant if a broader criterion was used. Resistance to BMS-806 was higher; 6 (7.5%), and was associated to non-B strains. Strikingly, 27.5% of samples harbored one or more mutation among A316T, I323V, and S405A, which have been related to decreased susceptibility of Maraviroc; 15% of them among viruses predictive to be R5. A more common mutation was A316T, which was associated to the Brazilian B strain harboring the GWGR motif at the tip of V3 loop and their derivative sequences. These results may be impact guidelines for genotype testing and treatment in Brazil.

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Background: Community and clinical data have suggested there is an association between trauma exposure and suicidal behavior (i.e., suicide ideation, plans and attempts). However, few studies have assessed which traumas are uniquely predictive of: the first onset of suicidal behavior, the progression from suicide ideation to plans and attempts, or the persistence of each form of suicidal behavior over time. Moreover, few data are available on such associations in developing countries. The current study addresses each of these issues. Methodology/Principal Findings: Data on trauma exposure and subsequent first onset of suicidal behavior were collected via structured interviews conducted in the households of 102,245 (age 18+) respondents from 21 countries participating in the WHO World Mental Health Surveys. Bivariate and multivariate survival models tested the relationship between the type and number of traumatic events and subsequent suicidal behavior. A range of traumatic events are associated with suicidal behavior, with sexual and interpersonal violence consistently showing the strongest effects. There is a dose-response relationship between the number of traumatic events and suicide ideation/attempt; however, there is decay in the strength of the association with more events. Although a range of traumatic events are associated with the onset of suicide ideation, fewer events predict which people with suicide ideation progress to suicide plan and attempt, or the persistence of suicidal behavior over time. Associations generally are consistent across high-, middle-, and low-income countries. Conclusions/Significance: This study provides more detailed information than previously available on the relationship between traumatic events and suicidal behavior and indicates that this association is fairly consistent across developed and developing countries. These data reinforce the importance of psychological trauma as a major public health problem, and highlight the significance of screening for the presence and accumulation of traumatic exposures as a risk factor for suicide ideation and attempt.

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Background: Suicide is a leading cause of death worldwide. Mental disorders are among the strongest predictors of suicide; however, little is known about which disorders are uniquely predictive of suicidal behavior, the extent to which disorders predict suicide attempts beyond their association with suicidal thoughts, and whether these associations are similar across developed and developing countries. This study was designed to test each of these questions with a focus on nonfatal suicide attempts. Methods and Findings: Data on the lifetime presence and age-of-onset of Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th Edition (DSM-IV) mental disorders and nonfatal suicidal behaviors were collected via structured face-to-face interviews with 108,664 respondents from 21 countries participating in the WHO World Mental Health Surveys. The results show that each lifetime disorder examined significantly predicts the subsequent first onset of suicide attempt (odds ratios [ORs] = 2.9-8.9). After controlling for comorbidity, these associations decreased substantially (ORs = 1.5-5.6) but remained significant in most cases. Overall, mental disorders were equally predictive in developed and developing countries, with a key difference being that the strongest predictors of suicide attempts in developed countries were mood disorders, whereas in developing countries impulse-control, substance use, and post-traumatic stress disorders were most predictive. Disaggregation of the associations between mental disorders and nonfatal suicide attempts showed that these associations are largely due to disorders predicting the onset of suicidal thoughts rather than predicting progression from thoughts to attempts. In the few instances where mental disorders predicted the transition from suicidal thoughts to attempts, the significant disorders are characterized by anxiety and poor impulse-control. The limitations of this study include the use of retrospective self-reports of lifetime occurrence and age-of-onset of mental disorders and suicidal behaviors, as well as the narrow focus on mental disorders as predictors of nonfatal suicidal behaviors, each of which must be addressed in future studies. Conclusions: This study found that a wide range of mental disorders increased the odds of experiencing suicide ideation. However, after controlling for psychiatric comorbidity, only disorders characterized by anxiety and poor impulse-control predict which people with suicide ideation act on such thoughts. These findings provide a more fine-grained understanding of the associations between mental disorders and subsequent suicidal behavior than previously available and indicate that mental disorders predict suicidal behaviors similarly in both developed and developing countries. Future research is needed to delineate the mechanisms through which people come to think about suicide and subsequently progress from ideation to attempts.

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AIM: To determine cytomegalovirus (CMV) frequency in neonatal intrahepatic cholestasis by serology, histological revision (searching for cytomegalic cells), immunohistochemistry, and polymerase chain reaction (PCR), and to verify the relationships among these methods. METHODS: The study comprised 101 non-consecutive infants submitted for hepatic biopsy between March 1982 and December 2005. Serological results were obtained from the patient's files and the other methods were performed on paraffin-embedded liver samples from hepatic biopsies. The following statistical measures were calculated: frequency, sensibility, specific positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and accuracy. RESULTS: The frequencies of positive results were as follows: serology, 7/64 (11%); histological revision, 0/84; immunohistochemistry, 1/44 (2%), and PCR, 6/77 (8%). Only one patient had positive immunohistochemical findings and a positive PCR. The following statistical measures were calculated between PCR and serology: sensitivity, 33.3%; specificity, 88.89%; positive predictive value, 28.57%; negative predictive value, 90.91%; and accuracy, 82.35%. CONCLUSION: The frequency of positive CMV varied among the tests. Serology presented the highest positive frequency. When compared to PCR, the sensitivity and positive predictive value of serology were low. (C) 2009 The WJG Press and Baishicleng. All rights reserved.

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Background: Analyses of population structure and breed diversity have provided insight into the origin and evolution of cattle. Previously, these studies have used a low density of microsatellite markers, however, with the large number of single nucleotide polymorphism markers that are now available, it is possible to perform genome wide population genetic analyses in cattle. In this study, we used a high-density panel of SNP markers to examine population structure and diversity among eight cattle breeds sampled from Bos indicus and Bos taurus. Results: Two thousand six hundred and forty one single nucleotide polymorphisms ( SNPs) spanning all of the bovine autosomal genome were genotyped in Angus, Brahman, Charolais, Dutch Black and White Dairy, Holstein, Japanese Black, Limousin and Nelore cattle. Population structure was examined using the linkage model in the program STRUCTURE and Fst estimates were used to construct a neighbor-joining tree to represent the phylogenetic relationship among these breeds. Conclusion: The whole-genome SNP panel identified several levels of population substructure in the set of examined cattle breeds. The greatest level of genetic differentiation was detected between the Bos taurus and Bos indicus breeds. When the Bos indicus breeds were excluded from the analysis, genetic differences among beef versus dairy and European versus Asian breeds were detected among the Bos taurus breeds. Exploration of the number of SNP loci required to differentiate between breeds showed that for 100 SNP loci, individuals could only be correctly clustered into breeds 50% of the time, thus a large number of SNP markers are required to replace the 30 microsatellite markers that are currently commonly used in genetic diversity studies.

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PURPOSE most people with mental disorders receive treatment in primary care. The charts developed by the Dartmouth Primary Care Cooperative Research Network (COOP) and the World Organization of National Colleges, Academies, and Academic Associations of General Practitioners/Family Physicians (WONCA) have not yet been evaluated as a screen for these disorders, using a structured psychiatric interview by an expert or considering diagnoses other than depression. We evaluated the validity and feasibility of the COOP/WONCA Charts as a mental disorders screen by comparing them both with other questionnaires previously validated and with the assessment of a mental health specialist using a structured diagnostic interview. METHODS We trained community health workers and nurse assistants working in a collaborative mental health care model to administer the COOP/WONCA Charts, the 20-item Self-Reporting Questionnaire (SRQ-20), and the World Health Organization Five Well-Being Index (WHO-5) to 120 primary care patients. A psychiatrist blinded to the patients' results on these questionnaires administered the SCID, or Structured Clinical Interview for the DSM-IV (Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition). RESULTS The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was at least 0.80 for single items, a 3-item combination, and the total score of the COOP/WONCA Charts, as well as for the SRQ-20 and the WHO-5, for screening both for all mental disorders and for depressive disorders. The accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of these measures ranged between 0.77 and 0.92. Community health workers and nurse assistants rated the understandability, ease of use, and clinical relevance of all 3 questionnaires as satisfactory. CONCLUSIONS One-time assessment of patients with the COOP/WONCA Charts is a valid and feasible option for screening for mental disorders by primary care teams.

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Background: To test if the expression of Smad1-8 mRNAs were predictive of survival in patients with oral squamous cell carcinoma (SCC). Patients and Methods: We analyzed, prospectively, the expression of Smad1-8, by means of Ribonuclease Protection Assay in 48 primary, operable, oral SCC. In addition, 21 larynx, 10 oropharynx and 4 hypopharynx SCC and 65 matched adjacent mucosa, available for study, were also included. For survival analysis, patients were categorized as positive or negative for each Smad, according to median mRNA expression. We also performed real-time quantitative PCR (QRTPCR) to asses the pattern of TGF beta 1, TGF beta 2, TGF beta 3 in oral SCC. Results: Our results showed that Smad2 and Smad6 mRNA expression were both associated with survival in Oral SCC patients. Cox Multivariate analysis revealed that Smad6 positivity and Smad2 negativity were both predictive of good prognosis for oral SCC patients, independent of lymph nodal status (P = 0.003 and P = 0.029, respectively). In addition, simultaneously Smad2(-) and Smad6(+) oral SCC group of patients did not reach median overall survival (mOS) whereas the mOS of Smad2(+)/Smad6(-) subgroup was 11.6 months (P = 0.004, univariate analysis). Regarding to TGF beta isoforms, we found that Smad2 mRNA and TGF beta 1 mRNA were inversely correlated (p = 0.05, R = -0.33), and that seven of the eight TGF beta 1(+) patients were Smad2(-). In larynx SCC, Smad7(-) patients did not reach mOS whereas mOS of Smad7(+) patients were only 7.0 months (P = 0.04). No other correlations were found among Smad expression, clinico-pathological characteristics and survival in oral, larynx, hypopharynx, oropharynx or the entire head and neck SCC population. Conclusion: Smad6 together with Smad2 may be prognostic factors, independent of nodal status in oral SCC after curative resection. The underlying mechanism which involves aberrant TGF beta signaling should be better clarified in the future.

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This study proposes a simplified mathematical model to describe the processes occurring in an anaerobic sequencing batch biofilm reactor (ASBBR) treating lipid-rich wastewater. The reactor, subjected to rising organic loading rates, contained biomass immobilized cubic polyurethane foam matrices, and was operated at 32 degrees C +/- 2 degrees C, using 24-h batch cycles. In the adaptation period, the reactor was fed with synthetic substrate for 46 days and was operated without agitation. Whereas agitation was raised to 500 rpm, the organic loading rate (OLR) rose from 0.3 g chemical oxygen demand (COD) . L(-1) . day(-1) to 1.2 g COD . L(-1) . day(-1). The ASBBR was fed fat-rich wastewater (dairy wastewater), in an operation period lasting for 116 days, during which four operational conditions (OCs) were tested: 1.1 +/- 0.2 g COD . L(-1) . day(-1) (OC1), 4.5 +/- 0.4 g COD . L(-1) . day(-1) (OC2), 8.0 +/- 0.8 g COD . L(-1) . day(-1) (OC3), and 12.1 +/- 2.4 g COD . L(-1) . day(-1) (OC4). The bicarbonate alkalinity (BA)/COD supplementation ratio was 1:1 at OC1, 1:2 at OC2, and 1:3 at OC3 and OC4. Total COD removal efficiencies were higher than 90%, with a constant production of bicarbonate alkalinity, in all OCs tested. After the process reached stability, temporal profiles of substrate consumption were obtained. Based on these experimental data a simplified first-order model was fit, making possible the inference of kinetic parameters. A simplified mathematical model correlating soluble COD with volatile fatty acids (VFA) was also proposed, and through it the consumption rates of intermediate products as propionic and acetic acid were inferred. Results showed that the microbial consortium worked properly and high efficiencies were obtained, even with high initial substrate concentrations, which led to the accumulation of intermediate metabolites and caused low specific consumption rates.