Novel investigation methods in Computational Social Dynamics and Complex Systems

In this thesis the evolution of the techno-social systems analysis methods will be reported, through the explanation of the various research experience directly faced. The first case presented is a research based on data mining of a dataset of words association named Human Brain Cloud: validation will be faced and, also through a non-trivial modeling, a better understanding of language properties will be presented. Then, a real complex system experiment will be introduced: the WideNoise experiment in the context of the EveryAware european project. The project and the experiment course will be illustrated and data analysis will be displayed. Then the Experimental Tribe platform for social computation will be introduced . It has been conceived to help researchers in the implementation of web experiments, and aims also to catalyze the cumulative growth of experimental methodologies and the standardization of tools cited above. In the last part, three other research experience which already took place on the Experimental Tribe platform will be discussed in detail, from the design of the experiment to the analysis of the results and, eventually, to the modeling of the systems involved. The experiments are: CityRace, about the measurement of human traffic-facing strategies; laPENSOcosì, aiming to unveil the political opinion structure; AirProbe, implemented again in the EveryAware project framework, which consisted in monitoring air quality opinion shift of a community informed about local air pollution. At the end, the evolution of the technosocial systems investigation methods shall emerge together with the opportunities and the threats offered by this new scientific path.

Entwicklung und Anwendung von mobilen Messstrategien und Analysemethoden zur Untersuchung urbanen Aerosols

Seit Anbeginn der Menschheitsgeschichte beeinflussen die Menschen ihre Umwelt. Durch anthropogene Emissionen ändert sich die Zusammensetzung der Atmosphäre, was einen zunehmenden Einfluss unter anderem auf die Atmosphärenchemie, die Gesundheit von Mensch, Flora und Fauna und das Klima hat. Die steigende Anzahl riesiger, wachsender Metropolen geht einher mit einer räumlichen Konzentration der Emission von Luftschadstoffen, was vor allem einen Einfluss auf die Luftqualität der windabwärts gelegenen ruralen Regionen hat. In dieser Doktorarbeit wurde im Rahmen des MEGAPOLI-Projektes die Abluftfahne der Megastadt Paris unter Anwendung des mobilen Aerosolforschungslabors MoLa untersucht. Dieses ist mit modernen, zeitlich hochauflösenden Instrumenten zur Messung der chemischen Zusammensetzung und Größenverteilung der Aerosolpartikel sowie einiger Spurengase ausgestattet. Es wurden mobile Messstrategien entwickelt und angewendet, die besonders geeignet zur Charakterisierung urbaner Emissionen sind. Querschnittsmessfahrten durch die Abluftfahne und atmosphärische Hintergrundluftmassen erlaubten sowohl die Bestimmung der Struktur und Homogenität der Abluftfahne als auch die Berechnung des Beitrags der urbanen Emissionen zur Gesamtbelastung der Atmosphäre. Quasi-Lagrange’sche Radialmessfahrten dienten der Erkundung der räumlichen Erstreckung der Abluftfahne sowie auftretender Transformationsprozesse der advehierten Luftschadstoffe. In Kombination mit Modellierungen konnte die Struktur der Abluftfahne vertieft untersucht werden. Flexible stationäre Messungen ergänzten den Datensatz und ließen zudem Vergleichsmessungen mit anderen Messstationen zu. Die Daten einer ortsfesten Messstation wurden zusätzlich verwendet, um die Alterung des organischen Partikelanteils zu beschreiben. Die Analyse der mobilen Messdaten erforderte die Entwicklung einer neuen Methode zur Bereinigung des Datensatzes von lokalen Störeinflüssen. Des Weiteren wurden die Möglichkeiten, Grenzen und Fehler bei der Anwendung komplexer Analyseprogramme zur Berechnung des O/C-Verhältnisses der Partikel sowie der Klassifizierung der Aerosolorganik untersucht. Eine Validierung verschiedener Methoden zur Bestimmung der Luftmassenherkunft war für die Auswertung ebenfalls notwendig. Die detaillierte Untersuchung der Abluftfahne von Paris ergab, dass diese sich anhand der Erhöhung der Konzentrationen von Indikatoren für unprozessierte Luftverschmutzung im Vergleich zu Hintergrundwerten identifizieren lässt. Ihre eher homogene Struktur kann zumeist durch eine Gauß-Form im Querschnitt mit einem exponentiellen Abfall der unprozessierten Schadstoffkonzentrationen mit zunehmender Distanz zur Stadt beschrieben werden. Hierfür ist hauptsächlich die turbulente Vermischung mit Umgebungsluftmassen verantwortlich. Es konnte nachgewiesen werden, dass in der advehierten Abluftfahne eine deutliche Oxidation der Aerosolorganik im Sommer stattfindet; im Winter hingegen ließ sich dieser Prozess während der durchgeführten Messungen nicht beobachten. In beiden Jahreszeiten setzt sich die Abluftfahne hauptsächlich aus Ruß und organischen Partikelkomponenten im PM1-Größenbereich zusammen, wobei die Quellen Verkehr und Kochen sowie zusätzlich Heizen in der kalten Jahreszeit dominieren. Die PM1-Partikelmasse erhöhte sich durch die urbanen Emissionen im Vergleich zum Hintergrundwert im Sommer in der Abluftfahne im Mittel um 30% und im Winter um 10%. Besonders starke Erhöhungen ließen sich für Polyaromaten beobachten, wo im Sommer eine mittlere Zunahme von 194% und im Winter von 131% vorlag. Jahreszeitliche Unterschiede waren ebenso in der Größenverteilung der Partikel der Abluftfahne zu finden, wo im Winter im Gegensatz zum Sommer keine zusätzlichen nukleierten kleinen Partikel, sondern nur durch Kondensation und Koagulation angewachsene Partikel zwischen etwa 10nm und 200nm auftraten. Die Spurengaskonzentrationen unterschieden sich ebenfalls, da chemische Reaktionen temperatur- und mitunter strahlungsabhängig sind. Weitere Anwendungsmöglichkeiten des MoLa wurden bei einer Überführungsfahrt von Deutschland an die spanische Atlantikküste demonstriert, woraus eine Kartierung der Luftqualität entlang der Fahrtroute resultierte. Es zeigte sich, dass hauptsächlich urbane Ballungszentren von unprozessierten Luftschadstoffen betroffen sind, advehierte gealterte Substanzen jedoch jede Region beeinflussen können. Die Untersuchung der Luftqualität an Standorten mit unterschiedlicher Exposition bezüglich anthropogener Quellen erweiterte diese Aussage um einen Einblick in die Variation der Luftqualität, abhängig unter anderem von der Wetterlage und der Nähe zu Emissionsquellen. Damit konnte gezeigt werden, dass sich die entwickelten Messstrategien und Analysemethoden nicht nur zur Untersuchung der Abluftfahne einer Großstadt, sondern auch auf verschiedene andere wissenschaftliche und umweltmesstechnische Fragestellungen anwenden lassen.

Global modeling of pollutant transport and deposition from anthropogenic emission hot spots on global scale

Urban centers significantly contribute to anthropogenic air pollution, although they cover only a minor fraction of the Earth's land surface. Since the worldwide degree of urbanization is steadily increasing, the anthropogenic contribution to air pollution from urban centers is expected to become more substantial in future air quality assessments. The main objective of this thesis was to obtain a more profound insight in the dispersion and the deposition of aerosol particles from 46 individual major population centers (MPCs) as well as the regional and global influence on the atmospheric distribution of several aerosol types. For the first time, this was assessed in one model framework, for which the global model EMAC was applied with different representations of aerosol particles. First, in an approach with passive tracers and a setup in which the results depend only on the source location and the size and the solubility of the tracers, several metrics and a regional climate classification were used to quantify the major outflow pathways, both vertically and horizontally, and to compare the balance between pollution export away from and pollution build-up around the source points. Then in a more comprehensive approach, the anthropogenic emissions of key trace species were changed at the MPC locations to determine the cumulative impact of the MPC emissions on the atmospheric aerosol burdens of black carbon, particulate organic matter, sulfate, and nitrate. Ten different mono-modal passive aerosol tracers were continuously released at the same constant rate at each emission point. The results clearly showed that on average about five times more mass is advected quasi-horizontally at low levels than exported into the upper troposphere. The strength of the low-level export is mainly determined by the location of the source, while the vertical transport is mainly governed by the lifting potential and the solubility of the tracers. Similar to insoluble gas phase tracers, the low-level export of aerosol tracers is strongest at middle and high latitudes, while the regions of strongest vertical export differ between aerosol (temperate winter dry) and gas phase (tropics) tracers. The emitted mass fraction that is kept around MPCs is largest in regions where aerosol tracers have short lifetimes; this mass is also critical for assessing the impact on humans. However, the number of people who live in a strongly polluted region around urban centers depends more on the population density than on the size of the area which is affected by strong air pollution. Another major result was that fine aerosol particles (diameters smaller than 2.5 micrometer) from MPCs undergo substantial long-range transport, with about half of the emitted mass being deposited beyond 1000 km away from the source. In contrast to this diluted remote deposition, there are areas around the MPCs which experience high deposition rates, especially in regions which are frequently affected by heavy precipitation or are situated in poorly ventilated locations. Moreover, most MPC aerosol emissions are removed over land surfaces. In particular, forests experience more deposition from MPC pollutants than other land ecosystems. In addition, it was found that the generic treatment of aerosols has no substantial influence on the major conclusions drawn in this thesis. Moreover, in the more comprehensive approach, it was found that emissions of black carbon, particulate organic matter, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen oxides from MPCs influence the atmospheric burden of various aerosol types very differently, with impacts generally being larger for secondary species, sulfate and nitrate, than for primary species, black carbon and particulate organic matter. While the changes in the burdens of sulfate, black carbon, and particulate organic matter show an almost linear response for changes in the emission strength, the formation of nitrate was found to be contingent upon many more factors, e.g., the abundance of sulfuric acid, than only upon the strength of the nitrogen oxide emissions. The generic tracer experiments were further extended to conduct the first risk assessment to obtain the cumulative risk of contamination from multiple nuclear reactor accidents on the global scale. For this, many factors had to be taken into account: the probability of major accidents, the cumulative deposition field of the radionuclide cesium-137, and a threshold value that defines contamination. By collecting the necessary data and after accounting for uncertainties, it was found that the risk is highest in western Europe, the eastern US, and in Japan, where on average contamination by major accidents is expected about every 50 years.

Validation of a modified AVHRR aerosol optical depth retrieval algorithm over Central Europe

The Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) carried on board the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Meteorological Operational Satellite (MetOp) polar orbiting satellites is the only instrument offering more than 25 years of satellite data to analyse aerosols on a daily basis. The present study assessed a modified AVHRR aerosol optical depth τa retrieval over land for Europe. The algorithm might also be applied to other parts of the world with similar surface characteristics like Europe, only the aerosol properties would have to be adapted to a new region. The initial approach used a relationship between Sun photometer measurements from the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) and the satellite data to post-process the retrieved τa. Herein a quasi-stand-alone procedure, which is more suitable for the pre-AERONET era, is presented. In addition, the estimation of surface reflectance, the aerosol model, and other processing steps have been adapted. The method's cross-platform applicability was tested by validating τa from NOAA-17 and NOAA-18 AVHRR at 15 AERONET sites in Central Europe (40.5° N–50° N, 0° E–17° E) from August 2005 to December 2007. Furthermore, the accuracy of the AVHRR retrieval was related to products from two newer instruments, the Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS) on board the Environmental Satellite (ENVISAT) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on board Aqua/Terra. Considering the linear correlation coefficient R, the AVHRR results were similar to those of MERIS with even lower root mean square error RMSE. Not surprisingly, MODIS, with its high spectral coverage, gave the highest R and lowest RMSE. Regarding monthly averaged τa, the results were ambiguous. Focusing on small-scale structures, R was reduced for all sensors, whereas the RMSE solely for MERIS substantially increased. Regarding larger areas like Central Europe, the error statistics were similar to the individual match-ups. This was mainly explained with sampling issues. With the successful validation of AVHRR we are now able to concentrate on our large data archive dating back to 1985. This is a unique opportunity for both climate and air pollution studies over land surfaces.

Seasonal variation and sources of low molecular weight organic acids in precipitation in the rural area of Anshun

Low mol. wt. (LMW) org. acids are important and ubiquitous chem. constituents in the atm. A comprehensive study of the chem. compn. of pptn. was carried out from June 2007 to June 2008 at a rural site in Anshun, in the west of Guizhou Province, China. During this period, 118 rainwater samples were collected and the main LMW carboxylic acids were detd. using ion chromatog. The av. pH of rainwater was 4.89 which is a typical acidic value. The most abundant carboxylic acids were formic acid (vol. wt. mean concn.: 8.77 μmol L-1) and acetic acid (6.90 μmol L-1), followed by oxalic acid (2.05 μmol L-1). The seasonal variation of concns. and wet deposition fluxes of org. acids indicated that direct vegetation emissions were the main sources of the org. acids. Highest concns. were obsd. in winter and were ascribed to the low winter rainfall and the contribution of other air pollution sources northeast of the study area. The ratio of formic and acetic acids in the pptn. ([F/A]T) was proposed as an indicator of pollution source. This suggested that the pollution resulted from direct emissions from natural or anthropogenic sources. Comparison with acid pptn. in other urban and rural areas in Guizhou showed that there was a decreasing contribution of LMW org. acids to free acidity and all anions in rainwater from urban to remote rural areas. Consequently, it is necessary to control emissions of org. acids to reduce the frequency of acid rain, esp. in rural and remote areas. [on SciFinder(R)]

Progenitor cell recruitment during individualized high-flow, very-large-volume apheresis for autologous transplantation improves collection efficiency

BACKGROUND: Individual adaptation of processed patient's blood volume (PBV) should reduce number and/or duration of autologous peripheral blood progenitor cell (PBPC) collections. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: The durations of leukapheresis procedures were adapted by means of an interim analysis of harvested CD34+ cells to obtain the intended yield of CD34+ within as few and/or short as possible leukapheresis procedures. Absolute efficiency (AE; CD34+/kg body weight) and relative efficiency (RE; total CD34+ yield of single apheresis/total number of preapheresis CD34+) were calculated, assuming an intraapheresis recruitment if RE was greater than 1, and a yield prediction models for adults was generated. RESULTS: A total of 196 adults required a total of 266 PBPC collections. The median AE was 7.99 x 10(6), and the median RE was 1.76. The prediction model for AE showed a satisfactory predictive value for preapheresis CD34+ only. The prediction model for RE also showed a low predictive value (R2 = 0.36). Twenty-eight children underwent 44 PBPC collections. The median AE was 12.13 x 10(6), and the median RE was 1.62. Major complications comprised bleeding episodes related to central venous catheters (n = 4) and severe thrombocytopenia of less than 10 x 10(9) per L (n = 16). CONCLUSION: A CD34+ interim analysis is a suitable tool for individual adaptation of the duration of leukapheresis. During leukapheresis, a substantial recruitment of CD34+ was observed, resulting in a RE of greater than 1 in more than 75 percent of patients. The upper limit of processed PBV showing an intraapheresis CD34+ recruitment is higher than in a standard large-volume leukapheresis. Therefore, a reduction of individually needed PBPC collections by means of a further escalation of the processed PBV seems possible.

Predicting the risk of hospital admission in older persons--validation of a brief self-administered questionnaire in three European countries

OBJECTIVES: To validate the Probability of Repeated Admission (Pra) questionnaire, a widely used self-administered tool for predicting future healthcare use in older persons, in three European healthcare systems. DESIGN: Prospective study with 1-year follow-up. SETTING: Hamburg, Germany; London, United Kingdom; Canton of Solothurn, Switzerland. PARTICIPANTS: Nine thousand seven hundred thirteen independently living community-dwelling people aged 65 and older. MEASUREMENTS: Self-administered eight-item Pra questionnaire at baseline. Self-reported number of hospital admissions and physician visits during 1 year of follow-up. RESULTS: In the combined sample, areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) were 0.64 (95% confidence interval (CI)=0.62-0.66) for the prediction of one or more hospital admissions and 0.68 (95% CI=0.66-0.69) for the prediction of more than six physician visits during the following year. AUCs were similar between sites. In comparison, prediction models based on a person's age and sex alone exhibited poor predictive validity (AUC or= 0.5) were 2.3 times as likely (95% CI=2.1-2.6) as low-risk individuals to have a hospital admission, and 2.1 times as likely (95% CI=2.0-2.2) to have more than six physician visits. CONCLUSION: The Pra instrument exhibits good validity for predicting future health service use on a population level in different healthcare settings. Administrative data have shown similar predictive validity, but in practice, such data are often not available. The Pra is likely of high interest to governments and health insurance companies worldwide as a basis for programs aimed at health risk management in older persons.

MULTIPLE DISEASES IN CARRIER PROBABILITY ESTIMATION: ACCOUNTING FOR SURVIVING ALL CANCERS OTHER THAN BREAST AND OVARY IN BRCAPRO

Mendelian models can predict who carries an inherited deleterious mutation of known disease genes based on family history. For example, the BRCAPRO model is commonly used to identify families who carry mutations of BRCA1 and BRCA2, based on familial breast and ovarian cancers. These models incorporate the age of diagnosis of diseases in relatives and current age or age of death. We develop a rigorous foundation for handling multiple diseases with censoring. We prove that any disease unrelated to mutations can be excluded from the model, unless it is sufficiently common and dependent on a mutation-related disease time. Furthermore, if a family member has a disease with higher probability density among mutation carriers, but the model does not account for it, then the carrier probability is deflated. However, even if a family only has diseases the model accounts for, if the model excludes a mutation-related disease, then the carrier probability will be inflated. In light of these results, we extend BRCAPRO to account for surviving all non-breast/ovary cancers as a single outcome. The extension also enables BRCAPRO to extract more useful information from male relatives. Using 1500 familes from the Cancer Genetics Network, accounting for surviving other cancers improves BRCAPRO’s concordance index from 0.758 to 0.762 (p = 0.046), improves its positive predictive value from 35% to 39% (p < 10−6) without impacting its negative predictive value, and improves its overall calibration, although calibration slightly worsens for those with carrier probability < 10%. Copyright c 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Translocation and potential neurological effects of fine and ultrafine particles a critical update

ABSTRACT: Particulate air pollution has been associated with respiratory and cardiovascular disease. Evidence for cardiovascular and neurodegenerative effects of ambient particles was reviewed as part of a workshop. The purpose of this critical update is to summarize the evidence presented for the mechanisms involved in the translocation of particles from the lung to other organs and to highlight the potential of particles to cause neurodegenerative effects.Fine and ultrafine particles, after deposition on the surfactant film at the air-liquid interface, are displaced by surface forces exerted on them by surfactant film and may then interact with primary target cells upon this displacement. Ultrafine and fine particles can then penetrate through the different tissue compartments of the lungs and eventually reach the capillaries and circulating cells or constituents, e.g. erythrocytes. These particles are then translocated by the circulation to other organs including the liver, the spleen, the kidneys, the heart and the brain, where they may be deposited. It remains to be shown by which mechanisms ultrafine particles penetrate through pulmonary tissue and enter capillaries. In addition to translocation of ultrafine particles through the tissue, fine and coarse particles may be phagocytized by macrophages and dendritic cells which may carry the particles to lymph nodes in the lung or to those closely associated with the lungs. There is the potential for neurodegenerative consequence of particle entry to the brain. Histological evidence of neurodegeneration has been reported in both canine and human brains exposed to high ambient PM levels, suggesting the potential for neurotoxic consequences of PM-CNS entry. PM mediated damage may be caused by the oxidative stress pathway. Thus, oxidative stress due to nutrition, age, genetics among others may increase the susceptibility for neurodegenerative diseases. The relationship between PM exposure and CNS degeneration can also be detected under controlled experimental conditions. Transgenic mice (Apo E -/-), known to have high base line levels of oxidative stress, were exposed by inhalation to well characterized, concentrated ambient air pollution. Morphometric analysis of the CNS indicated unequivocally that the brain is a critical target for PM exposure and implicated oxidative stress as a predisposing factor that links PM exposure and susceptibility to neurodegeneration.Together, these data present evidence for potential translocation of ambient particles on organs distant from the lung and the neurodegenerative consequences of exposure to air pollutants.

How can we measure the impact of pollutants on respiratory function in very young children? Methodological aspects

There is increasing evidence that air pollution particularly affects infants and small preschool children. However, detecting air pollution effects on lung function in small children is technically difficult and requires non-invasive methods that can assess lung function and inflammatory markers in larger cohorts. This review discusses the principles, usefulness and shortcomings of various lung function techniques used to detect pollution effects in small children. The majority of these techniques have been used to detect effects of the dominant indoor pollutant, tobacco exposure. However there is increasing evidence that non-invasive lung function techniques can also detect the effects of outdoor air pollution.

DISTRIBUTED REPRODUCIBLE RESEARCH USING CACHED COMPUTATIONS

The ability to make scientific findings reproducible is increasingly important in areas where substantive results are the product of complex statistical computations. Reproducibility can allow others to verify the published findings and conduct alternate analyses of the same data. A question that arises naturally is how can one conduct and distribute reproducible research? This question is relevant from the point of view of both the authors who want to make their research reproducible and readers who want to reproduce relevant findings reported in the scientific literature. We present a framework in which reproducible research can be conducted and distributed via cached computations and describe specific tools for both authors and readers. As a prototype implementation we introduce three software packages written in the R language. The cacheSweave and stashR packages together provide tools for caching computational results in a key-value style database which can be published to a public repository for readers to download. The SRPM package provides tools for generating and interacting with "shared reproducibility packages" (SRPs) which can facilitate the distribution of the data and code. As a case study we demonstrate the use of the toolkit on a national study of air pollution exposure and mortality.

Considering sustainability factors in the development project life-cycle : a framework for increasing successful adoption of improved stoves

Indoor air pollution from combustion of solid fuels is the fifth leading contributor to disease burden in low-income countries. This, and potential to reduce environmental impacts, has resulted in emphasis on use of improved stoves. However, many efforts have failed to meet expectations and effective coverage remains limited. A disconnect exists between technologies, delivery methods, and long-term adoption. The purpose of this research is to develop a framework to increase long-term success of improved stove projects. The framework integrates sustainability factors into the project life-cycle. It is represented as a matrix and checklist which encourages consideration of social, economic, and environmental issues in projects. A case study was conducted in which an improved stove project in Honduras was evaluated using the framework. Results indicated areas of strength and weakness in project execution and highlighted potential improvements for future projects. The framework is also useful as a guide during project planning.

Translocation and cellular entering mechanisms of nanoparticles in the respiratory tract

Anthropogenic nano-sized particles (NSP), ie, particles with a diameter of less than 100 nm, are generated with or without purpose as chemically and physically well-defined materials or as a consequence of combustion processes respectively. Inhalation of NSP occurs on a regular basis due to air pollution and is associated with an increase in respiratory and cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Manufactured NSP may intentionally be inhaled as pharmaceuticals or unintentionally during production at the workplace. Hence the interactions of NSP with the respiratory tract are currently under intensive investigation. Due to special physicochemical features of NSP, its biological behaviour may differ from that of larger sized particles. Here we review two important themes of current research into the effects of NSP on the lungs: 1) The potential of NSP to cross the blood-air barrier of the lungs, thus gaining access to the circulation and extrapulmonary organs. It is currently accepted that a small fraction of inhaled NSP may translocate to the circulation. The significance of this translocation requires further research. 2) The entering mechanisms of NSP into different cell types. There is evidence that NSP are taken up by cells via well-known pathways of endocytosis but also via different mechanisms not well understood so far. Knowledge of the quantitative relationship between the different entering mechanisms and cellular responses is not yet available but is urgently needed in order to understand the effects of intentionally or unintentionally inhaled NSP on the respiratory tract.

Admission blood glucose is an independent predictive factor for hospital mortality in polytraumatised patients

PURPOSE: The goal of this study was to analyse a possible association of admission blood glucose with hospital mortality of polytraumatised patients and to develop an outcome prediction model for this patient group. METHODS: The outcome of adult polytraumatised patients admitted to the University Hospital of Berne, Switzerland, between 2002 and 2004 with an ISS > or = 17, and more than one severely injured organ system was retrospectively analysed. RESULTS: The inclusion criteria were met by 555 patients, of which 108 (19.5%) died. Hyperglycaemia proved to be an independent predictor for hospital mortality (P < 0.0001), following multiple regression analysis. After inclusion of admission blood glucose, the calculated mortality prediction model performed better than currently described models (P < 0.0001, AUC 0.924). CONCLUSION: In this retrospective, single-centre study in polytraumatised patients, admission blood glucose proved to be an independent predictor of hospital mortality following regression analysis controlling for age, gender, injury severity and other laboratory parameters. A reliable admission blood glucose-based mortality prediction model for polytraumatised patients could be established. This observation may be helpful in improving the precision of future outcome prediction models for polytraumatised patients. These observations warrant further prospective evaluation.

Lifestyle and stroke risk: a review

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: In recent years, many epidemiological studies have given new insights into old and new lifestyle factors that influence the risk of cerebrovascular events. In this review, we refer to the most important articles to highlight recent advances, especially those important for stroke prevention. RECENT FINDINGS: This review focuses on the most recent studies that show the association of environmental factors, nutrition, alcohol, tobacco, education, lifestyle and behavior with the risk of vascular disease, including ischemic stroke and cerebral hemorrhage. The link between air pollution and stroke risk has become evident. Low education levels and depression are established as risk factors. This is also true for heavy alcohol consumption, although moderate drinking may be protective. Active and passive smoking are independent risk factors, and a smoking ban in public places has already reduced cardiovascular events in the short term. Physical activity reduces stroke risk; overweight increases it. However, clinical trials to assess the effect of weight reduction on stroke risk are still lacking. Fruits, vegetables, fish, fibers, low-fat dairy products, potassium and low sodium consumption are known and recommended to reduce cardiovascular risk. Data on omega 3 fatty acid, folic acid and B vitamins are inconsistent, and antioxidants are not recommended. SUMMARY: Stroke can be substantially reduced by an active lifestyle, cessation of smoking and a healthy diet. Both public and professional education should promote the awareness that a healthy lifestyle and nutrition have the potential to reduce the burden of stroke.