Priority setting in healthcare: from arbitrariness to societal values

This paper develops an account of the normative basis of priority setting in health care as combining the values which a given society holds for the common good of its members, with the universal provided by a principle of common humanity. We discuss national differences in health basket in Europe and argue that health care decision-making in complex social and moral frameworks is best thought of as anchored in such a principle by drawing on the philosophy of need. We show that health care needs are ethically ‘thick’ needs whose psychological and social construction can best be understood in terms of David Wiggins's notion of vital need: a person's need is vital when failure to meet it leads to their harm and suffering. The moral dimension of priority setting which operates across different societies’ health care systems is located in the demands both of and on any society to avoid harm to its members.

Phenotypic and genotypic characterization of avian Escherichia coli O86:K61 isolates possessing a gamma-like intimin

Escherichia coli O86:K61 has long been associated with outbreaks of infantile diarrhea in humans and with diarrheal disease in many animal species. Studies in the late 1990s identified E. coli 086:K61 as the cause of mortality in a variety of wild birds, and in this study, 34 E. coli 086:K61 isolates were examined. All of the isolates were nonmotile, but most elaborated at least two morphologically distinct surface appendages that were confirmed to be type I and curli fimbriae. Thirty-three isolates were positive for the eaeA gene encoding a gamma type of intimin. No phenotypic or genotypic evidence was obtained for elaboration of Shiga-like toxins, but most isolates possessed the gene coding for the cytolethal distending toxin. Five isolates were selected for adherence assays performed with tissue explants and HEp-2 cells, and four of these strains produced attaching and effacing lesions on HEp-2 cells and invaded the cells, as determined by transmission electron microscopy. Two of the five isolates were inoculated orally into 1-day-old specific-pathogen-free chicks, and both of these isolates colonized, invaded, and persisted well in this model. Neither isolate produced attaching and effacing lesions in chicks, although some pathology was evident in the alimentary tract. No deaths were recorded in inoculated chicks. These findings are discussed in light of the possibility that wild birds are potential zoonotic reservoirs of attaching and effacing E. coli.

Using transport diagnostics to understand chemistry climate model ozone simulations

We use observations of N2O and mean age to identify realistic transport in models in order to explain their ozone predictions. The results are applied to 15 chemistry climate models (CCMs) participating in the 2010 World Meteorological Organization ozone assessment. Comparison of the observed and simulated N2O, mean age and their compact correlation identifies models with fast or slow circulations and reveals details of model ascent and tropical isolation. This process‐oriented diagnostic is more useful than mean age alone because it identifies models with compensating transport deficiencies that produce fortuitous agreement with mean age. The diagnosed model transport behavior is related to a model’s ability to produce realistic lower stratosphere (LS) O3 profiles. Models with the greatest tropical transport problems compare poorly with O3 observations. Models with the most realistic LS transport agree more closely with LS observations and each other. We incorporate the results of the chemistry evaluations in the Stratospheric Processes and their Role in Climate (SPARC) CCMVal Report to explain the range of CCM predictions for the return‐to‐1980 dates for global (60°S–60°N) and Antarctic column ozone. Antarctic O3 return dates are generally correlated with vortex Cly levels, and vortex Cly is generally correlated with the model’s circulation, although model Cl chemistry and conservation problems also have a significant effect on return date. In both regions, models with good LS transport and chemistry produce a smaller range of predictions for the return‐to‐1980 ozone values. This study suggests that the current range of predicted return dates is unnecessarily broad due to identifiable model deficiencies.

Evaluation of diagnostic molecular markers for DUS phenotypic assessment in the cereal crop, barley (Hordeum vulgare ssp. vulgare L.)

The deployment of genetic markers is of interest in crop assessment and breeding programmes, due to the potential savings in cost and time afforded. As part of the internationally recognised framework for the awarding of Plant Breeders’ Rights (PBR), new barley variety submissions are evaluated using a suite of morphological traits to ensure they are distinct, uniform and stable (DUS) in comparison to all previous submissions. Increasing knowledge of the genetic control of many of these traits provides the opportunity to assess the potential of deploying diagnostic/perfect genetic markers in place of phenotypic assessment. Here, we identify a suite of 25 genetic markers assaying for 14 DUS traits, and implement them using a single genotyping platform (KASPar). Using a panel of 169 UK barley varieties, we show that phenotypic state at three of these traits can be perfectly predicted by genotype. Predictive values for an additional nine traits ranged from 81 to 99 %. Finally, by comparison of varietal discrimination based on phenotype and genotype resulted in correlation of 0.72, indicating that deployment of molecular markers for varietal discrimination could be feasible in the near future. Due to the flexibility of the genotyping platform used, the genetic markers described here can be used in any number or combination, in-house or by outsourcing, allowing flexible deployment by users. These markers are likely to find application where tracking of specific alleles is required in breeding programmes, or for potential use within national assessment programmes for the awarding of PBRs.

Public values and community energy: lessons from the US and UK

This paper examines some of the normative aspects of community energy programmes — defined here as decentralized forms of energy production and distributed energy technologies where production decisions are made as close as possible to sources of consumption. Such projects might also display a degree of separation from the formal political process. The development of a community energy system often generates a great deal of debate about both the degree of public support for such programmes and the values around which programmes ought to be organized. Community energy programmes also raise important issues regarding the energy choice problem, including questions of process, that is, by whom a project is developed and the influence of both community and exogenous actors, as well as certain outcome issues regarding the spatial and social distribution of energy. The case studies, drawn from community energy programmes in both the United States and the United Kingdom, allow for a careful examination of all of these factors, considering in particular the complex interplay and juxtaposition between the ideas of 'public value' and 'public values'.

Balitskiǐ-Fadin-Kuraev-Lipatov equation versus data from DESY HERA

The BFKL equation and the kT-factorization theorem are used to obtain predictions for F2 in the small Bjo/rken-x region over a wide range of Q2. The dependence on the parameters, especially on those concerning the infrared region, is discussed. After a background fit to recent experimental data obtained at DESY HERA and at Fermilab (E665 experiment) we find that the predicted, almost Q2 independent BFKL slope λ≳0.5 appears to be too steep at lower Q2 values. Thus there seems to be a chance that future HERA data can distinguish between pure BFKL and conventional field theoretic renormalization group approaches. © 1995 The American Physical Society.

Climate change scenarios applied to viticultural zoning in Europe

Climate is one of the main factors controlling winegrape production. Bioclimatic indices describing the suitability of a particular region for wine production are a widely used zoning tool. Seven suitable bioclimatic indices characterize regions in Europe with different viticultural suitability, and their possible geographical shifts under future climate conditions are addressed using regional climate model simulations. The indices are calculated from climatic variables (daily values of temperature and precipitation) obtained from transient ensemble simulations with the regional model COSMO-CLM. Index maps for recent decades (1960–2000) and for the 21st century (following the IPCC-SRES B1 and A1B scenarios) are compared. Results show that climate change is projected to have a significant effect on European viticultural geography. Detrimental impacts on winegrowing are predicted in southern Europe, mainly due to increased dryness and cumulative thermal effects during the growing season. These changes represent an important constraint to grapevine growth and development, making adaptation strategies crucial, such as changing varieties or introducing water supply by irrigation. Conversely, in western and central Europe, projected future changes will benefit not only wine quality, but might also demarcate new potential areas for viticulture, despite some likely threats associated with diseases. Regardless of the inherent uncertainties, this approach provides valuable information for implementing proper and diverse adaptation measures in different European regions.

An insight into the public acceptance of nutrigenomic-based personalised nutrition.

It is predicted that non-communicable diseases will account for over 73 % of global mortality in 2020. Given that the majority of these deaths occur in developed countries such as the UK, and that up to 80 % of chronic disease could be prevented through improvements in diet and lifestyle, it is imperative that dietary guidelines and disease prevention strategies are reviewed in order to improve their efficacy. Since the completion of the human genome project our understanding of complex interactions between environmental factors such as diet and genes has progressed considerably, as has the potential to individualise diets using dietary, phenotypic and genotypic data. Thus, there is an ambition for dietary interventions to move away from population-based guidance towards 'personalised nutrition'. The present paper reviews current evidence for the public acceptance of genetic testing and personalised nutrition in disease prevention. Health and clear consumer benefits have been identified as key motivators in the uptake of genetic testing, with individuals reporting personal experience of disease, such as those with specific symptoms, being more willing to undergo genetic testing for the purpose of personalised nutrition. This greater perceived susceptibility to disease may also improve motivation to change behaviour which is a key barrier in the success of any nutrition intervention. Several consumer concerns have been identified in the literature which should be addressed before the introduction of a nutrigenomic-based personalised nutrition service. Future research should focus on the efficacy and implementation of nutrigenomic-based personalised nutrition.

Sequential variations of phytoplankton growth and mortality in an NPZ model: a remote-sensing-based assessment

Radiometric data in the visible domain acquired by satellite remote sensing have proven to be powerful for monitoring the states of the ocean, both physical and biological. With the help of these data it is possible to understand certain variations in biological responses of marine phytoplankton on ecological time scales. Here, we implement a sequential data-assimilation technique to estimate from a conventional nutrient–phytoplankton–zooplankton (NPZ) model the time variations of observed and unobserved variables. In addition, we estimate the time evolution of two biological parameters, namely, the specific growth rate and specific mortality of phytoplankton. Our study demonstrates that: (i) the series of time-varying estimates of specific growth rate obtained by sequential data assimilation improves the fitting of the NPZ model to the satellite-derived time series: the model trajectories are closer to the observations than those obtained by implementing static values of the parameter; (ii) the estimates of unobserved variables, i.e., nutrient and zooplankton, obtained from an NPZ model by implementation of a pre-defined parameter evolution can be different from those obtained on applying the sequences of parameters estimated by assimilation; and (iii) the maximum estimated specific growth rate of phytoplankton in the study area is more sensitive to the sea-surface temperature than would be predicted by temperature-dependent functions reported previously. The overall results of the study are potentially useful for enhancing our understanding of the biological response of phytoplankton in a changing environment.

Tracking the momentum flux of a CME and quantifying its influence on geomagnetically induced currents at Earth

We investigate a coronal mass ejection (CME) propagating toward Earth on 29 March 2011. This event is specifically chosen for its predominately northward directed magnetic field, so that the influence from the momentum flux onto Earth can be isolated. We focus our study on understanding how a small Earth-directed segment propagates. Mass images are created from the white-light cameras onboard STEREO which are also converted into mass height-time maps (mass J-maps). The mass tracks on these J-maps correspond to the sheath region between the CME and its associated shock front as detected by in situ measurements at L1. A time series of mass measurements from the STEREO COR-2A instrument is made along the Earth propagation direction. Qualitatively, this mass time series shows a remarkable resemblance to the L1 in situ density series. The in situ measurements are used as inputs into a three-dimensional (3-D) magnetospheric space weather simulation from the Community Coordinated Modeling Center. These simulations display a sudden compression of the magnetosphere from the large momentum flux at the leading edge of the CME, and predictions are made for the time derivative of the magnetic field (dB/dt) on the ground. The predicted dB/dt values were then compared with the observations from specific equatorially located ground stations and showed notable similarity. This study of the momentum of a CME from the Sun down to its influence on magnetic ground stations on Earth is presented as a preliminary proof of concept, such that future attempts may try to use remote sensing to create density and velocity time series as inputs to magnetospheric simulations.

On the difficulties of present theoretical models to predict the oxidation state of atomic Au adsorbed on regular sites of CeO2(111)

The electronic structure and oxidation state of atomic Au adsorbed on a perfect CeO2(111) surface have been investigated in detail by means of periodic density functional theory-based calculations, using the LDA+U and GGA+U potentials for a broad range of U values, complemented with calculations employing the HSE06 hybrid functional. In addition, the effects of the lattice parameter a0 and of the starting point for the geometry optimization have also been analyzed. From the present results we suggest that the oxidation state of single Au atoms on CeO2(111) predicted by LDA+U, GGA+U, and HSE06 density functional calculations is not conclusive and that the final picture strongly depends on the method chosen and on the construction of the surface model. In some cases we have been able to locate two well-defined states which are close in energy but with very different electronic structure and local geometries, one with Au fully oxidized and one with neutral Au. The energy difference between the two states is typically within the limits of the accuracy of the present exchange-correlation potentials, and therefore, a clear lowest-energy state cannot be identified. These results suggest the possibility of a dynamic distribution of Au0 and Au+ atomic species at the regular sites of the CeO2(111) surface.

Estimating the potential yield of small wind turbines in urban areas: a case study for Greater London, UK

To optimise the placement of small wind turbines in urban areas a detailed understanding of the spatial variability of the wind resource is required. At present, due to a lack of observations, the NOABL wind speed database is frequently used to estimate the wind resource at a potential site. However, recent work has shown that this tends to overestimate the wind speed in urban areas. This paper suggests a method for adjusting the predictions of the NOABL in urban areas by considering the impact of the underlying surface on a neighbourhood scale. In which, the nature of the surface is characterised on a 1 km2 resolution using an urban morphology database. The model was then used to estimate the variability of the annual mean wind speed across Greater London at a height typical of current small wind turbine installations. Initial validation of the results suggests that the predicted wind speeds are considerably more accurate than the NOABL values. The derived wind map therefore currently provides the best opportunity to identify the neighbourhoods in Greater London at which small wind turbines yield their highest energy production. The model does not consider street scale processes, however previously derived scaling factors can be applied to relate the neighbourhood wind speed to a value at a specific rooftop site. The results showed that the wind speed predicted across London is relatively low, exceeding 4 ms-1 at only 27% of the neighbourhoods in the city. Of these sites less than 10% are within 10 km of the city centre, with the majority over 20 km from the city centre. Consequently, it is predicted that small wind turbines tend to perform better towards the outskirts of the city, therefore for cities which fit the Burgess concentric ring model, such as Greater London, ‘distance from city centre’ is a useful parameter for siting small wind turbines. However, there are a number of neighbourhoods close to the city centre at which the wind speed is relatively high and these sites can only been identified with a detailed representation of the urban surface, such as that developed in this study.

Estimates of global multicomponent aerosol optical depth and direct radiative perturbation in the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique general circulation model

The global cycle of multicomponent aerosols including sulfate, black carbon (BC),organic matter (OM), mineral dust, and sea salt is simulated in the Laboratoire de Me´te´orologie Dynamique general circulation model (LMDZT GCM). The seasonal open biomass burning emissions for simulation years 2000–2001 are scaled from climatological emissions in proportion to satellite detected fire counts. The emissions of dust and sea salt are parameterized online in the model. The comparison of model-predicted monthly mean aerosol optical depth (AOD) at 500 nm with Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) shows good agreement with a correlation coefficient of 0.57(N = 1324) and 76% of data points falling within a factor of 2 deviation. The correlation coefficient for daily mean values drops to 0.49 (N = 23,680). The absorption AOD (ta at 670 nm) estimated in the model is poorly correlated with measurements (r = 0.27, N = 349). It is biased low by 24% as compared to AERONET. The model reproduces the prominent features in the monthly mean AOD retrievals from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The agreement between the model and MODIS is better over source and outflow regions (i.e., within a factor of 2).There is an underestimation of the model by up to a factor of 3 to 5 over some remote oceans. The largest contribution to global annual average AOD (0.12 at 550 nm) is from sulfate (0.043 or 35%), followed by sea salt (0.027 or 23%), dust (0.026 or 22%),OM (0.021 or 17%), and BC (0.004 or 3%). The atmospheric aerosol absorption is predominantly contributed by BC and is about 3% of the total AOD. The globally and annually averaged shortwave (SW) direct aerosol radiative perturbation (DARP) in clear-sky conditions is �2.17 Wm�2 and is about a factor of 2 larger than in all-sky conditions (�1.04 Wm�2). The net DARP (SW + LW) by all aerosols is �1.46 and �0.59 Wm�2 in clear- and all-sky conditions, respectively. Use of realistic, less absorbing in SW, optical properties for dust results in negative forcing over the dust-dominated regions.

Monte Carlo field-theoretic simulations for melts of symmetric diblock copolymer

Monte Carlo field-theoretic simulations (MCFTS) are performed on melts of symmetric diblock copolymer for invariant polymerization indexes extending down to experimentally relevant values of N̅ ∼ 10^4. The simulations are performed with a fluctuating composition field, W_−(r), and a pressure field, W_+(r), that follows the saddle-point approximation. Our study focuses on the disordered-state structure function, S(k), and the order−disorder transition (ODT). Although shortwavelength fluctuations cause an ultraviolet (UV) divergence in three dimensions, this is readily compensated for with the use of an effective Flory−Huggins interaction parameter, χ_e. The resulting S(k) matches the predictions of renormalized one-loop (ROL) calculations over the full range of χ_eN and N̅ examined in our study, and agrees well with Fredrickson−Helfand (F−H) theory near the ODT. Consistent with the F−H theory, the ODT is discontinuous for finite N̅ and the shift in (χ_eN)_ODT follows the predicted N̅^−1/3 scaling over our range of N̅.