Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk–outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990–2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8–58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1–43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5–89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

The first episode of psychosis: The experience of relatives

Objective The aim was to determine the extent of and the correlates of the distress and impact of care families of patients with first episode psychosis were experiencing when they first came for treatment. Method Subjects were 238 individuals who had presented with a first episode of psychosis and their family members. Family members were assessed with the Psychological General Well-Being Scale, and the Experience of Caregiving Inventory. Patient data included assessment of positive and negative symptoms, depression, quality of life, and substance use. Results Family members of these first-episode patients were experiencing distress and difficulties. It was the family's appraisal of the impact of the illness that was associated with their psychological well-being. Conclusion As the majority of these first episode families are keen to be involved early and have engaged in an intervention programme, the next step should be an evaluation of their involvement to determine if it is effective.

Generalised growth models for aquatic species with an application to blacklip abalone (Haliotis rubra)

This paper presents a maximum likelihood method for estimating growth parameters for an aquatic species that incorporates growth covariates, and takes into consideration multiple tag-recapture data. Individual variability in asymptotic length, age-at-tagging, and measurement error are also considered in the model structure. Using distribution theory, the log-likelihood function is derived under a generalised framework for the von Bertalanffy and Gompertz growth models. Due to the generality of the derivation, covariate effects can be included for both models with seasonality and tagging effects investigated. Method robustness is established via comparison with the Fabens, improved Fabens, James and a non-linear mixed-effects growth models, with the maximum likelihood method performing the best. The method is illustrated further with an application to blacklip abalone (Haliotis rubra) for which a strong growth-retarding tagging effect that persisted for several months was detected

Improved estimation of size-transition matrices using tag-recapture data

We derive a new method for determining size-transition matrices (STMs) that eliminates probabilities of negative growth and accounts for individual variability. STMs are an important part of size-structured models, which are used in the stock assessment of aquatic species. The elements of STMs represent the probability of growth from one size class to another, given a time step. The growth increment over this time step can be modelled with a variety of methods, but when a population construct is assumed for the underlying growth model, the resulting STM may contain entries that predict negative growth. To solve this problem, we use a maximum likelihood method that incorporates individual variability in the asymptotic length, relative age at tagging, and measurement error to obtain von Bertalanffy growth model parameter estimates. The statistical moments for the future length given an individual's previous length measurement and time at liberty are then derived. We moment match the true conditional distributions with skewed-normal distributions and use these to accurately estimate the elements of the STMs. The method is investigated with simulated tag-recapture data and tag-recapture data gathered from the Australian eastern king prawn (Melicertus plebejus).

Latitudinal and seasonal effects on growth of the Australian eastern king prawn (Melicertus plebejus)

The growth of the Australian eastern king prawn (Melicertus plebejus) is understood in greater detail by quantifying the latitudinal effect. The latitudinal effect is the change in the species' growth rate during migration. Mark-recapture data (N = 1635, latitude 22.21 degrees S-34.00 degrees S) presents northerly movement of the eastern king prawn, with New South Wales prawns showing substantial average movement of 140 km (standard deviation: 176 km) north. A generalized von Bertalanffy growth model framework is used to incorporate the latitudinal effect together with the canonical seasonal effect. Applying this method to eastern king prawn mark-recapture data guarantees consistent estimates for the latitudinal and seasonal effects. For M. plebejus, it was found that growth rate peaks on 25 and 29 January for males and females, respectively; is at a minimum on 27 and 31 July, respectively; and that the shape parameter, k (per year), changes by -0.0236 and -0.0556 every 1 degree of latitude south increase for males and females, respectively.

Does the size of subsamples taken from multispecies trawl catches affect estimates of catch composition and abundance?

Although subsampling is a common method for describing the composition of large and diverse trawl catches, the accuracy of these techniques is often unknown. We determined the sampling errors generated from estimating the percentage of the total number of species recorded in catches, as well as the abundance of each species, at each increase in the proportion of the sorted catch. We completely partitioned twenty prawn trawl catches from tropical northern Australia into subsamples of about 10 kg each. All subsamples were then sorted, and species numbers recorded. Catch weights ranged from 71 to 445 kg, and the number of fish species in trawls ranged from 60 to 138, and invertebrate species from 18 to 63. Almost 70% of the species recorded in catches were "rare" in subsamples (less than one individual per 10 kg subsample or less than one in every 389 individuals). A matrix was used to show the increase in the total number of species that were recorded in each catch as the percentage of the sorted catch increased. Simulation modelling showed that sorting small subsamples (about 10% of catch weights) identified about 50% of the total number of species caught in a trawl. Larger subsamples (50% of catch weight on average) identified about 80% of the total species caught in a trawl. The accuracy of estimating the abundance of each species also increased with increasing subsample size. For the "rare" species, sampling error was around 80% after sorting 10% of catch weight and was just less than 50% after 40% of catch weight had been sorted. For the "abundant" species (five or more individuals per 10 kg subsample or five or more in every 389 individuals), sampling error was around 25% after sorting 10% of catch weight, but was reduced to around 10% after 40% of catch weight had been sorted.

The sputtering temperature of a cooling cylindrical rod with an insulated core

By a standard application of Jones's method associated with the Wiener-Hopf technique an explicit solution is obtained for the temperature distribution inside a cylindrical rod with an insulated inner core when the rod is allowed to enter into a fluid of large extent with a uniform speed, and a simple integral expression is derived for the value of the sputtering temperature of the rod at the points of entry. Numerical results under certain special circumstances are also obtained and presented in the form of a table.

Functionally associated molecular genetic marker map construction in perennial ryegrass (Lolium perenne L.)

A molecular marker-based map of perennial ryegrass (Lolium perenne L.) has been constructed through the use of polymorphisms associated with expressed sequence tags (ESTs). A pair-cross between genotypes from a North African ecotype and the cultivar Aurora was used to generate a two-way pseudo-testcross population. A selection of 157 cDNAs assigned to eight different functional categories associated with agronomically important biological processes was used to detect polymorphic EST–RFLP loci in the F1(NA6 × AU6) population. A comprehensive set of EST–SSR markers was developed from the analysis of 14,767 unigenes, with 310 primer pairs showing efficient amplification and detecting 113 polymorphic loci. Two parental genetic maps were produced: the NA6 genetic map contains 88 EST–RFLP and 71 EST–SSR loci with a total map length of 963 cM, while the AU6 genetic map contains 67 EST–RFLP and 58 EST–SSR loci with a total map length of 757 cM. Bridging loci permitted the alignment of homologous chromosomes between the parental maps, and a sub-set of genomic DNA-derived SSRs was used to relate linkage groups to the perennial ryegrass reference map. Regions of segregation distortion were identified, in some instances in common with other perennial ryegrass maps. The EST-derived marker-based map provides the basis for in silico comparative genetic mapping, as well as the evaluation of co-location between QTLs and functionally associated genetic loci.

Children’s perspectives of play and learning for educational practice

Play as a learning practice increasingly is under challenge as a valued component of early childhood education. Views held in parallel include confirmation of the place of play in early childhood education and, at the same time, a denigration of the role of play in favor for more teacher-structured and formal activities. As a consequence, pedagogical approaches towards play, the curriculum activities that constitute play, and the appropriateness of play in educational settings, have come under scrutiny in recent years. In this context, this study investigates children’s perspectives of play and how they understand the role of play and learning in their everyday activities. This article reports on an Australian study where teacher-researchers investigated child-led insights into what counts as play in their everyday classroom activities. Children (aged 3–4 years) described play as an activity that involved their active participation in “doing” something, being with peers, and having agency and ownership of ideas. Children did not always characterize their activities as “play”, and not all activities in the preschool program were described as play. The article highlights that play and learning are complex concepts that may be easily dismissed as separate, when rather they are deeply intertwined. The findings of this study generate opportunities for educators and academics to consider what counts as “play” for children, and to prompt further consideration of the role of play as an antidote to adult centric views of play.

Genetic variability of Tomato spotted wilt virus in Australia and validation of real time RT-PCR for its detection in single and bulked leaf samples

The potential for large-scale use of a sensitive real time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) assay was evaluated for the detection of Tomato spotted wilt virus (TSWV) in single and bulked leaf samples by comparing its sensitivity with that of DAS-ELISA. Using total RNA extracted with RNeasy® or leaf soak methods, real time RT-PCR detected TSWV in all infected samples collected from 16 horticultural crop species (including flowers, herbs and vegetables), two arable crop species, and four weed species by both assays. In samples in which DAS-ELISA had previously detected TSWV, real time RT-PCR was effective at detecting it in leaf tissues of all 22 plant species tested at a wide range of concentrations. Bulk samples required more robust and extensive extraction methods with real time RT-PCR, but it generally detected one infected sample in 1000 uninfected ones. By contrast, ELISA was less sensitive when used to test bulked samples, once detecting up to 1 infected in 800 samples with pepper but never detecting more than 1 infected in 200 samples in tomato and lettuce. It was also less reliable than real time RT-PCR when used to test samples from parts of the leaf where the virus concentration was low. The genetic variability among Australian isolates of TSWV was small. Direct sequencing of a 587 bp region of the nucleoprotein gene (S RNA) of 29 isolates from diverse crops and geographical locations yielded a maximum of only 4.3% nucleotide sequence difference. Phylogenetic analysis revealed no obvious groupings of isolates according to geographic origin or host species. TSWV isolates, that break TSWV resistance genes in tomato or pepper did not differ significantly in the N gene region studied, indicating that a different region of the virus genome is responsible for this trait.

Asymptotic behaviour of point processes with Markov-dependent intervals

This splitting techniques for MARKOV chains developed by NUMMELIN (1978a) and ATHREYA and NEY (1978b) are used to derive an imbedded renewal process in WOLD's point process with MARKOV-correlated intervals. This leads to a simple proof of renewal theorems for such processes. In particular, a key renewal theorem is proved, from which analogues to both BLACKWELL's and BREIMAN's forms of the renewal theorem can be deduced.

The sputtering temperature of a cooling cylindrical rod with an insulated core

By a standard application of Jones's method associated with the Wiener-Hopf technique an explicit solution is obtained for the temperature distribution inside a cylindrical rod with an insulated inner core when the rod is allowed to enter into a fluid of large extent with a uniform speed, and a simple integral expression is derived for the value of the sputtering temperature of the rod at the points of entry. Numerical results under certain special circumstances are also obtained and presented in the form of a table.

"Philly Joe" Jonesin Jazz-rumpukomppaus : Improvisoitu säestys ja vuorovaikutus kappaleessa 'Blues for Philly Joe'

Tutkielma käsittelee jazz-rumpali Joseph Rudolph Philly Joe Jonesin (1923 1985) improvisoitua säestystä, komppausta, ja soittajien välisen vuorovaikutuksen osuutta jazz-esityksen muotoutumisessa. Jazz-rumpalin soitolle on tyypillistä, että kaikki toiminta on improvisoitua, kappaleen ja lajin viitekehyksen sekä häneen kohdistuvien odotusten raameissa tapahtuvaa luomisprosessia. Jazz-analyysi on painottunut kontekstista irrotetun improvisoinnin tutkimiseen, mutta tässä työssä painopiste on ryhmädynamiikassa. Analyysikohde on Sonny Rollinsin säveltämä 12-tahtinen blues Blues for Philly Joe (1957) Rollinsin levyltä Newk s Time (Blue Note 7243 5 76752 2 2). Rumpukomppausta tarkastellaan kolmesta näkökulmasta. Aluksi rumpuosuudesta pelkistetään erityisen karsimismenetelmän avulla komppauksen rytminen hahmo, rytmilinja. Rytmilinja-analyysin avulla vastataan tutkimuskysymykseen minkälaisilla rytmeillä Jones komppaa, ja miten sen rytmi suhteutuu pulssiin, metriin ja muotoon nähden. Seuraavaksi motiivianalyysista kehitetyllä aiheiden erittely- ja variaatiomenetelmällä määritellään Jonesin komppausfraasien piirteet, rakenteet ja variaatiot. Lopuksi Jonesin ja solistin välistä vuorovaikutusta tutkitaan kartoittamalla aihelainaukset, sekä rytmisektion sisäistä koordinointia rytmilinjojen avulla. Rytmilinja paljastaa Jonesin korostavan usein tiettyjä tahdinosia tietyissä rakennepaikoissa eri kertauksissa. Komppaus tuo rakenteelliset taitepaikat esiin, ja samalla sen polyrytmit horjuttavat vallitsevaa 4/4-metriä. Fraasianalyysi paljastaa Jonesin komppiaiheiden käytön olevan johdonmukaista, ja joillakin fraaseilla on oma täsmällinen funktionsa. Pitkätkin komppifraasit perustuvat vain muutamaan hahmoon, joista tärkeimmät ovat kolmijakoiset polymetrit ja synkoopit. Vuorovaikutus solistin kanssa ilmenee kahdensuuntaisina aihelainauksina tai vaihtoehtoisesti kontrasteina. Rytmisektion sisäisen vuorovaikutuksen muodoista merkittäviin on yhteisten toistuvien rytmiaiheiden, riffien, koordinoitu käyttö. Rytmisektion jäsenet myös hakeutuvat tietoisesti toisen soittajan rytmilinjan sisään päätyäkseen samoille tahdinosille. Työssä konkretisoituu säestämisen ja vuorovaikutuksen merkitys jazz-improvisoinnin synnyttäjänä. Tutkimuskohde ei olisi voinut tulla lopulliseen muotoonsa ilman soittajien vuorovaikutusta. Tämän työn myötä nousee tarve tutkia rytmisektion toimintaa ja vuorovaikutuksen evoluutiota eri tyylikausina.

Evolutionary relationships between bat coronaviruses and their hosts

Recent studies have suggested that bats are the natural reservoir of a range of coronaviruses (CoVs), and that rhinolophid bats harbor viruses closely related to the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) CoV, which caused an outbreak of respiratory illness in humans during 2002-2003. We examined the evolutionary relationships between bat CoVs and their hosts by using sequence data of the virus RNA-dependent RNA polymerase gene and the bat cytochrome b gene. Phylogenetic analyses showed multiple incongruent associations between the phylogenies of rhinolophid bats and their CoVs, which suggested that host shifts have occurred in the recent evolutionary history of this group. These shifts may be due to either virus biologic traits or host behavioral traits. This finding has implications for the emergence of SARS and for the potential future emergence of SARS-CoVs or related viruses.

Effect of an interactive therapeutic robotic animal on engagement, mood states, agitation and psychotropic drug use in people with dementia: A cluster-randomised controlled trial protocol

Introduction: Apathy, agitated behaviours, loneliness and depression are common consequences of dementia. This trial aims to evaluate the effect of a robotic animal on behavioural and psychological symptoms of dementia in people with dementia living in long-term aged care. Methods and analysis: A cluster-randomised controlled trial with three treatment groups: PARO (robotic animal), Plush-Toy (non-robotic PARO) or Usual Care (Control). The nursing home sites are Australian Government approved and accredited facilities of 60 or more beds. The sites are located in South-East Queensland, Australia. A sample of 380 adults with a diagnosis of dementia, aged 60 years or older living in one of the participating facilities will be recruited. The intervention consists of three individual 15 min non-facilitated sessions with PARO or Plush- Toy per week, for a period of 10 weeks. The primary outcomes of interest are improvement in agitation, mood states and engagement. Secondary outcomes include sleep duration, step count, change in psychotropic medication use, change in treatment costs, and staff and family perceptions of PARO or Plush-Toy. Video data will be analysed using Noldus XT Pocket Observer; descriptive statistics will be used for participants’ demographics and outcome measures; cluster and individual level analyses to test all hypotheses and Generalised Linear Models for cluster level and Generalised Estimation Equations and/or Multi-level Modeling for individual level data. Ethics and dissemination: The study participants or their proxy will provide written informed consent. The Griffith University Human Research Ethics Committee has approved the study (NRS/03/14/HREC). The results of the study will provide evidence of the efficacy of a robotic animal as a psychosocial treatment for the behavioural and psychological symptoms of dementia. Findings will be presented at local and international conference meetings and published in peer-reviewed journals.