Projected changes in tropical cyclones over Vietnam and the South China Sea using a 25 km regional climate model perturbed physics ensemble

The regional climate modelling system PRECIS, was run at 25 km horizontal resolution for 150 years (1949-2099) using global driving data from a five member perturbed physics ensemble (based on the coupled global climate model HadCM3). Output from these simulations was used to investigate projected changes in tropical cyclones (TCs) over Vietnam and the South China Sea due to global warming (under SRES scenario A1B). Thirty year climatological mean periods were used to look at projected changes in future (2069-2098) TCs compared to a 1961-1990 baseline. Present day results were compared qualitatively with IBTrACS observations and found to be reasonably realistic. Future projections show a 20-44 % decrease in TC frequency, although the spatial patterns of change differ between the ensemble members, and an increase of 27-53 % in the amount of TC associated precipitation. No statistically significant changes in TC intensity were found, however, the occurrence of more intense TCs (defined as those with a maximum 10 m wind speed > 35 m/s) was found to increase by 3-9 %. Projected increases in TC associated precipitation are likely caused by increased evaporation and availability of atmospheric water vapour, due to increased sea surface and atmospheric temperature. The mechanisms behind the projected changes in TC frequency are difficult to link explicitly; changes are most likely due to the combination of increased static stability, increased vertical wind shear and decreased upward motion, which suggest a decrease in the tropical overturning circulation.

The calculative turn in land value capture: lessons from the English planning system

For over three decades, negotiated planning obligations have been the primary form of land value capture in England. Diffusing and evolving over the last decade, a significant policy innovation has been the use of financial calculations to estimate the extent to which policies on planning obligations for actual, proposed development projects and in plan making affect the financial viability of development. This paper assesses the extent to which the use of financial appraisals has provided a robust, just and practical procedure to support land value capture. It is concluded that development viability appraisals are saturated with intrinsic uncertainty and that land value capture that is based on such calculations is, to some extent, capricious. In addition, clear incentives for developers and land owners to bias viability calculations, the economic dependence of many viability consultants on developers and land owners, a lack of transparency, contested or ambiguous guidance and the opportunities created by input uncertainty for bias are further failings. It is argued that how viability calculations are applied has been, is being and will continue to be shaped by power relations.

Participatory urban planning for climate change adaptation in coastal cities: lessons from a pilot experience in Maputo, Mozambique

This paper proposes a rights-based approach for participatory urban planning for climate change adaptation in urban areas. Participatory urban planning ties climate change adaptation to local development opportunities. Previous discussions suggest that participatory urban planning may help to understand structural inequalities, to gain, even if temporally, institutional support and to deliver a planning process in constant negotiation with local actors. Building upon an action research project which implemented a process of participatory urban planning for climate change in Maputo, Mozambique, this paper reflects upon the practical lessons that emerged from these experiences, in relation to the incorporation of climate change information, the difficulties to secure continued support from local governments and the opportunities for local impacts through the implementation of the proposals emerging from this process.

Post-crisis regulatory reforms and bank performance: lessons from Asia

Based on a large dataset from eight Asian economies, we test the impact of post-crisis regulatory reforms on the performance of depository institutions in countries at different levels of financial development. We allow for technological heterogeneity and estimate a set of country-level stochastic cost frontiers followed by a deterministic bootstrapped meta-frontier to evaluate cost efficiency and cost technology. Our results support the view that liberalization policies have a positive impact on bank performance, while the reverse is true for prudential regulation policies. The removal of activities restrictions, bank privatization and foreign bank entry have a positive and significant impact on technological progress and cost efficiency. In contrast, prudential policies, which aim to protect the banking sector from excessive risk-taking, tend to adversely affect banks cost efficiency but not cost technology.

Prospects for biodiversity conservation in the Atlantic Forest: Lessons from aging human-modified landscapes

Recent global assessments have shown the limited coverage of protected areas across tropical biotas, fuelling a growing interest in the potential conservation services provided by anthropogenic landscapes. Here we examine the geographic distribution of biological diversity in the Atlantic Forest of South America, synthesize the most conspicuous forest biodiversity responses to human disturbances, propose further conservation initiatives for this biota, and offer a range of general insights into the prospects of forest species persistence in human-modified tropical forest landscapes worldwide. At the biome scale, the most extensive pre-Columbian habitats across the Atlantic Forest ranged across elevations below 800 masl, which still concentrate most areas within the major centers of species endemism. Unfortunately, up to 88% of the original forest habitat has been lost, mainly across these low to intermediate elevations, whereas protected areas are clearly skewed towards high elevations above 1200 masl. At the landscape scale, most remaining Atlantic Forest cover is embedded within dynamic agro-mosaics including elements such as small forest fragments, early-to-late secondary forest patches and exotic tree mono-cultures. In this sort of aging or long-term modified landscapes, habitat fragmentation appears to effectively drive edge-dominated portions of forest fragments towards an early-successional system, greatly limiting the long-term persistence of forest-obligate and forest-dependent species. However, the extent to which forest habitats approach early-successional systems, thereby threatening the bulk of the Atlantic Forest biodiversity, depends on both past and present landscape configuration. Many elements of human-modified landscapes (e.g. patches of early-secondary forests and tree mono-cultures) may offer excellent conservation opportunities, but they cannot replace the conservation value of protected areas and hitherto unprotected large patches of old-growth forests. Finally, the biodiversity conservation services provided by anthropogenic landscapes across Atlantic Forest and other tropical forest regions can be significantly augmented by coupling biodiversity corridor initiatives with biota-scale attempts to plug existing gaps in the representativeness of protected areas. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Epidemiology and control of frontier malaria in Brazil: lessons from community-based studies in rural Amazonia

We describe the epidemiology of malaria in a frontier agricultural settlement in Brazilian Amazonia. We analysed the incidence of slide-confirmed symptomatic infections diagnosed between 2001 and 2006 in a cohort of 531 individuals (2281.53 person-years of follow-up) and parasite prevalence data derived from four cross-sectional surveys. Overall, the incidence rates of Plasmodium vivax and P. falciparaum were 20.6/100 and 6.8/100 person-years at risk, respectively, with a marked decline in the incidence of both species (81.4 and 56.8%, respectively) observed between 2001 and 2006. PCR revealed 5.4-fold more infections than conventional microscopy in population-wide cross-sectional surveys carried out between 2004 and 2006 (average prevalence, 11.3 vs. 2.0%). Only 27.2% of PCR-positive (but 73.3% of slide-positive) individuals had symptoms when enrolled, indicating that asymptomatic carriage of low-grade parasitaemias is a common phenomenon in frontier settlements. A circular cluster comprising 22.3% of the households, all situated in the area of most recent occupation, comprised 69.1% of all malaria infections diagnosed during the follow-up, with malaria incidence decreasing exponentially with distance from the cluster centre. By targeting one-quarter of the households, with selective indoor spraying or other house-protection measures, malaria incidence could be reduced by more than two-thirds in this community. (C) 2010 Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fractal structures in nonlinear plasma physics

Fractal structures appear in many situations related to the dynamics of conservative as well as dissipative dynamical systems, being a manifestation of chaotic behaviour. In open area-preserving discrete dynamical systems we can find fractal structures in the form of fractal boundaries, associated to escape basins, and even possessing the more general property of Wada. Such systems appear in certain applications in plasma physics, like the magnetic field line behaviour in tokamaks with ergodic limiters. The main purpose of this paper is to show how such fractal structures have observable consequences in terms of the transport properties in the plasma edge of tokamaks, some of which have been experimentally verified. We emphasize the role of the fractal structures in the understanding of mesoscale phenomena in plasmas, such as electromagnetic turbulence.

Density profiles in the raise and peel model with and without a wall; physics and combinatorics

We consider the raise and peel model of a one-dimensional fluctuating interface in the presence of an attractive wall. The model can also describe a pair annihilation process in disordered unquenched media with a source at one end of the system. For the stationary states, several density profiles are studied using Monte Carlo simulations. We point out a deep connection between some profiles seen in the presence of the wall and in its absence. Our results are discussed in the context of conformal invariance ( c = 0 theory). We discover some unexpected values for the critical exponents, which are obtained using combinatorial methods. We have solved known ( Pascal`s hexagon) and new (split-hexagon) bilinear recurrence relations. The solutions of these equations are interesting in their own right since they give information on certain classes of alternating sign matrices.

Can't Get No Satisfaction: Lessons Learned while Developing an Assessment of Faculty Awareness and Attitudes towards Library Services

The presentation was offered as part of the CUNY Library Assessment Conference, Reinventing Libraries: Reinventing Assessment, held at the City University of New York in June 2014.

Lessons learned from stakeholders in a facilitation intervention targeting neonatal health in Quang Ninh province, Vietnam

BACKGROUND: In northern Vietnam the Neonatal health - Knowledge Into Practice (NeoKIP, Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN44599712) trial has evaluated facilitation as a knowledge translation intervention to improve neonatal survival. The results demonstrated that intervention sites, each having an assigned group including local stakeholders supported by a facilitator, lowered the neonatal mortality rate by 50% during the last intervention year compared with control sites. This process evaluation was conducted to identify and describe mechanisms of the NeoKIP intervention based on experiences of facilitators and intervention group members. METHODS: Four focus group discussions (FGDs) were conducted with all facilitators at different occasions and 12 FGDs with 6 intervention groups at 2 occasions. Fifteen FGDs were audio recorded, transcribed verbatim, translated into English, and analysed using thematic analysis. RESULTS: Four themes and 17 sub-themes emerged from the 3 FGDs with facilitators, and 5 themes and 18 sub-themes were identified from the 12 FGDs with the intervention groups mirroring the process of, and the barriers to, the intervention. Facilitators and intervention group members concurred that having groups representing various organisations was beneficial. Facilitators were considered important in assembling the groups. The facilitators functioned best if coming from the same geographical area as the groups and if they were able to come to terms with the chair of the groups. However, the facilitators' lack of health knowledge was regarded as a deficit for assisting the groups' assignments. FGD participants experienced the NeoKIP intervention to have impact on the knowledge and behaviour of both intervention group members and the general public, however, they found that the intervention was a slow and time-consuming process. Perceived facilitation barriers were lack of money, inadequate support, and the function of the intervention groups. CONCLUSIONS: This qualitative process evaluation contributes to explain the improved neonatal survival and why this occurred after a latent period in the NeoKIP project. The used knowledge translation intervention, where facilitators supported multi-stakeholder coalitions with the mandate to impact upon attitudes and behaviour in the communes, has low costs and potential for being scaled-up within existing healthcare systems.

Analysis of a large-scale IT outsourcing "failure": what lessons can we learn?

Much of the research that has been carried out into outsourcing is based on relatively successful case studies. Yet drawing inferences from case studies when those with largely negative outcomes rarely see the light of day represents a significant problem. When negative cases are systematically unrepresented, there is less opportunity to subject theory to scrutiny. This chapter goes some way towards redressing this trend, by reporting on a large scale “selective” outsourcing arrangement that has been publicly described as a failure — the Australian Federal Government’s “whole of government” IT infrastructure outsourcing initiative. This initiative, originally promoted as likely to lead to a billion dollar saving, was abandoned early in 2001, after a damning public report by the Australian Auditor General. However, a detailed study of the initiative suggests that the “failure” occurred despite the project adhering to many of the recommended guidelines for successful outsourcing that had been derived from earlier case analysis. The findings have important implications for decision makers confronted with outsourcing choices. The study suggests that the risks of outsourcing are often downplayed, or ignored in the rush to reap the expected benefits. The study also suggests that expectations of savings from outsourcing IT are often substantially higher than those that have been empirically confirmed in the field. Decision makers are advised that key assumptions about costs, savings, managerial effort, and the effects of outsourcing on operational performance might be incorrect, and to plan for their outsourcing activity accordingly. They should pay particular attention to coordination and transaction costs, as these tend to be overlooked in the business case. These costs will be magnified if “best in breed” multiple-vendor outsourcing is chosen, and if contracts are kept short. Decision-makers are also warned of the difficulties they are likely to have at the end of an outsourcing contract if there is not a large and robust pool of alternative vendors willing to bid against the incumbent.