Prognostic clinical prediction rules to identify a low-risk pulmonary embolism: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Prognostic assessment is important for the management of patients with a pulmonary embolism (PE). A number of clinical prediction rules (CPRs) have been proposed for stratifying PE mortality risk. The aim of this systematic review was to assess the performance of prognostic CPRs in identifying a low-risk PE.

Prognostic occupational factors for persistent low back pain in primary care

To reduce the socio-economic burden of persistent low back pain (LBP), factors influencing the progression of acute/subacute LBP to the persistent state must be identified at an early stage.

The Strauss and Carpenter Prognostic Scale in subjects clinically at high risk of psychosis

Objective:  To investigate the predictive value of the Strauss and Carpenter Prognostic Scale (SCPS) for transition to a first psychotic episode in subjects clinically at high risk (CHR) of psychosis. Method:  Two hundred and forty-four CHR subjects participating in the European Prediction of Psychosis Study were assessed with the SCPS, an instrument that has been shown to predict outcome in patients with schizophrenia reliably. Results:  At 18-month follow-up, 37 participants had made the transition to psychosis. The SCPS total score was predictive of a first psychotic episode (P < 0.0001). SCPS items that remained as independent predictors in the Cox proportional hazard model were as follows: most usual quality of useful work in the past year (P = 0.006), quality of social relations (P = 0.006), presence of thought disorder, delusions or hallucinations in the past year (P = 0.001) and reported severity of subjective distress in past month (P = 0.003). Conclusion:  The SCPS could make a valuable contribution to a more accurate prediction of psychosis in CHR subjects as a second-step tool. SCPS items assessing quality of useful work and social relations, positive symptoms and subjective distress have predictive value for transition. Further research should focus on investigating whether targeted early interventions directed at the predictive domains may improve outcomes.

[Psychiatric assessment of alcoholic patients on a waiting list for liver transplantation : Which prognostic criteria are empirically proven?]

Liver disorders are the most frequent somatic complications of alcoholism. As 10‑20% of alcoholic patients will develop liver cirrhosis, this is the most frequent reason for premature death in alcoholic patients. Liver transplantation is now an accepted therapy for alcoholic liver cirrhosis but psychiatric assessment is usually required for patients entering a waiting list for transplantation. Prognostic criteria are controversially discussed, especially the so-called 6-month rule. Numerous studies and recent meta-analyses have indicated that duration of alcoholism, family history, age, sex, comorbid substance use and psychiatric disorders, noncompliance and social instability are outcome predictors. The 6-month criterion is not well proven but some studies are indicative. Possible therapeutic interventions for alcoholic patients on a waiting list are discussed.

Prognostic impact of lymph node ratio outperforms positive lymph nodes and lymph nodes harvested: a time-dependent analysis in mismatch repair-proficient and –deficient colrectal cancers

Objective: We compare the prognostic strength of the lymph node ratio (LNR), positive lymph nodes (+LNs) and collected lymph nodes (LNcoll) using a time-dependent analysis in colorectal cancer patients stratified by mismatch repair (MMR) status. Method: 580 stage III-IV patients were included. Multivariable Cox regression analysis and time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (tROC) curve analysis were performed. The Area under the Curve (AUC) over time was compared for the three features. Results were validated on a second cohort of 105 stage III-IV patients. Results: The AUC for the LNR was 0.71 and outperformed + LNs and LNcoll by 10–15 % in both MMR-proficient and deficient cancers. LNR and + LNs were both significant (p<0.0001) in multivariable analysis but the effect was considerably stronger for the LNR [LNR: HR=5.18 (95 % CI: 3.5–7.6); +LNs=1.06 (95 % CI: 1.04–1.08)]. Similar results were obtained for patients with >12 LNcoll. An optimal cut off score for LNR=0.231 was validated on the second cohort (p<0.001). Conclusion: The LNR outperforms the + LNs and LNcoll even in patients with >12 LNcoll. Its clinical value is not confounded by MMR status. A cut-of score of 0.231 may best stratify patients into prognostic subgroups and could be a basis for the future prospective analysis of the LNR.

Loss of heterozygosity 1p36 and 19q13 is a prognostic factor for overall survival in patients with diffuse WHO grade 2 gliomas treated without chemotherapy

PURPOSE: This study was conducted to elucidate the impact of loss of heterozygosity (LOH) for chromosomes 1p36 and 19q13 on the overall survival of patients with diffusely infiltrating WHO grade 2 gliomas treated without chemotherapy. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We assessed the LOH status of tumors from patients harboring WHO grade 2 gliomas diagnosed between 1991 and 2000. Patients were either followed after initial biopsy or treated by surgery and/or radiation therapy (RT). Overall survival, time to malignant transformation, and progression-free survival were last updated as of March 2005. RESULTS: Of a total of 79 patients, LOH 1p36 and LOH 19q13 could be assessed in 67 and 66 patients, respectively. The median follow-up after diagnosis was 6 years. Loss of either 1p or 19q, in particular codeletion(s) at both loci, was found to positively impact on both overall survival (log-rank P < .01), progression-free survival, and survival without malignant transformation (P < .05). Tumor volume (P < .0001), neurologic deficits at diagnosis (P < .01), involvement of more than one lobe (P < .01), and absence of an oligodendroglial component (P < .05) were also predictors of shorter overall survival. The extent of surgery was similar in patients with or without LOH 1p and/or 19q; RT was more frequently resorted to for patients without than for patients with LOH 1p/19q (30% v 60%). CONCLUSION: The presence of LOH on either 1p36 or 19q13, and in particular codeletion of both loci is a strong, nontreatment-related, prognostic factor for overall survival in patients with diffusely infiltrating WHO grade 2 gliomas.

Vitrectomy for juvenile uveitis: prognostic factors for the long-term functional outcome

PURPOSE: This study evaluated the long-term effect of pars plana vitrectomy (PPV) in children and adolescents with chronic uveitis on visual function, anatomical outcome, and the requirement of systemic treatment. Further, predictive preoperative factors associated with a beneficial visual outcome were assessed. METHODS: Retrospective review of 29 eyes of 23 consecutive paediatric and juvenile patients below 20 years of age with chronic uveitis who underwent a PPV for visually significant opacities in 25 eyes, vitreous haemorrhage in three eyes, and retinal detachment in one eye. The clinical diagnosis was chronic intermediate uveitis in 22 eyes and retinal vasculitis of different origin in seven eyes. RESULTS: LogMAR visual acuity improved from an average of 0.91 to 0.33 (P<0.001). Cystoid macular oedema (CME) was significantly reduced in eight of 10 eyes postoperatively (P=0.021). In the multiple regression analysis, a low preoperative logMAR visual acuity and the presence of a CME had a negative influence on the final logMAR visual acuity. Furthermore, the appearance of chronic uveitis relapses was significantly reduced from 15 eyes before to seven eyes after surgery (P=0.042). CONCLUSIONS: PPV has a beneficial effect on the course and the complications of chronic uveitis in paediatric and juvenile patients with respect to the anatomical and visual outcome. Preoperative logMAR visual acuity and clinically significant CME were the most accurate predictors for the functional outcome.

Limitations of the Odds Ratio in Gauging the Performance of a Diagnostic or Prognostic Marker

A marker that is strongly associated with outcome (or disease) is often assumed to be effective for classifying individuals according to their current or future outcome. However, for this to be true, the associated odds ratio must be of a magnitude rarely seen in epidemiological studies. An illustration of the relationship between odds ratios and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves shows, for example, that a marker with an odds ratio as high as 3 is in fact a very poor classification tool. If a marker identifies 10 percent of controls as positive (false positives) and has an odds ratio of 3, then it will only correctly identify 25 percent of cases as positive (true positives). Moreover, the authors illustrate that a single measure of association such as an odds ratio does not meaningfully describe a marker’s ability to classify subjects. Appropriate statistical methods for assessing and reporting the classification power of a marker are described. The serious pitfalls of using more traditional methods based on parameters in logistic regression models are illustrated.

Prognostic factors affecting long-term outcomes in patients with resected stage IIIA pN2 non-small-cell lung cancer: 5-year follow-up of a phase II study

The aim was to investigate the efficacy of neoadjuvant docetaxel-cisplatin and identify prognostic factors for outcome in locally advanced stage IIIA (pN2 by mediastinoscopy) non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients. In all, 75 patients (from 90 enrolled) underwent tumour resection after three 3-week cycles of docetaxel 85 mg m-2 (day 1) plus cisplatin 40 or 50 mg m-2 (days 1 and 2). Therapy was well tolerated (overall grade 3 toxicity occurred in 48% patients; no grade 4 nonhaematological toxicity was reported), with no observed late toxicities. Median overall survival (OS) and event-free survival (EFS) times were 35 and 15 months, respectively, in the 75 patients who underwent surgery; corresponding figures for all 90 patients enrolled were 28 and 12 months. At 3 years after initiating trial therapy, 27 out of 75 patients (36%) were alive and tumour free. At 5-year follow-up, 60 and 65% of patients had local relapse and distant metastases, respectively. The most common sites of distant metastases were the lung (24%) and brain (17%). Factors associated with OS, EFS and risk of local relapse and distant metastases were complete tumour resection and chemotherapy activity (clinical response, pathologic response, mediastinal downstaging). Neoadjuvant docetaxel-cisplatin was effective and tolerable in stage IIIA pN2 NSCLC, with chemotherapy contributing significantly to outcomes.

Origin and prognostic value of circulating KRAS mutations in lung cancer patients

Because of the current controversy on the origin and clinical value of circulating KRAS codon 12 mutations in lung cancer, we screened 180 patients using a combined restriction fragment-length polymorphism and polymerase chain reaction (RFLP-PCR) assay. We detected KRAS mutations in 9% plasma samples and 0% matched lymphocytes. Plasma KRAS mutations correlated significantly with poor prognosis. We validated the positive results in a second laboratory by DNA sequencing and found matching codon 12 sequences in blood and tumor in 78% evaluable cases. These results support the notion that circulating KRAS mutations originate from tumors and are prognostically relevant in lung cancer.

Validation of candidate smear microscopy quality indicators, extracted from tuberculosis laboratory registers

SETTING: Kinshasa Province, Democratic Republic of Congo. OBJECTIVE: To identify and validate register-based indicators of acid-fast bacilli (AFB) microscopy quality. DESIGN: Selection of laboratories based on reliability and variation in routine smear rechecking results. Calculation of relative sensitivity (RS) compared to recheckers and its correlation coefficient (R) with candidate indicators based on a fully probabilistic analysis incorporating vague prior information using WinBUGS. RESULTS: The proportion of positive follow-up smears correlated well (median R 0.81, 95% credibility interval [CI] 0.58-0.93), and the proportion of first smear-positive cases fairly (median R 0.70, 95% CI 0.38-0.89) with RS. The proportions of both positive suspect and low positive case smears showed poor correlations (median R 0.27 and -0.22, respectively, with ranges including zero). CONCLUSIONS: The proportion of positives in follow-up smears is the most promising indicator of AFB smear sensitivity, while the proportion of positive suspects may be more indicative of accessibility and suspect selection. Both can be obtained from simple reports, and should be used for internal and external monitoring and as guidance for supervision. As proportion of low positive suspect smears and consistency within case series are more difficult to interpret, they should be used only on-site by laboratory professionals. All indicators require more research to define their optimal range in various settings.

The prognostic significance of cytogenetic aberrations in childhood acute myeloid leukaemia. A study of the Swiss Paediatric Oncology Group (SPOG)

In childhood-onset acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) the clinical value of karyotypic aberrations is now acknowledged, although there is still debate concerning the prognostic significance of some events. To add to this knowledge, cytogenetic analysis was performed on a consecutive series of 84 childhood AML patients diagnosed in Switzerland. A result was obtained for all patients, with 69 (82%) showing a clonal karyotypic aberration. In the remaining 15 (18%), no karyotypic aberration was seen by either conventional or fluorescence in situ hybridisation analyses. The most frequent aberrations observed were t(11q23) (19% of all patients), t(8;21) (12%) and +8 (11%). Except for cytogenetics, no clinical parameter was shown to be significantly associated with outcome. The analysis of individual cytogenetic subgroups demonstrated that aberrations involving chromosome 16q were the strongest predictor of a good prognosis, while +8 and complex karyotypes represented the strongest predictors of a poor prognosis. It was also noteworthy that patients with the rare aberrations of del(11q) (n = 4) and t(16;21)(p11;q22) (n = 3) had a poor outcome. The results support the importance of cytogenetic analysis in childhood AML, but show that further work is required in the classification of the poor prognosis aberrations.