Discrete Conditional Phase-type models utilising classification trees: Application to modelling health service capacities

Discrete Conditional Phase-type (DC-Ph) models consist of a process component (survival distribution) preceded by a set of related conditional discrete variables. This paper introduces a DC-Ph model where the conditional component is a classification tree. The approach is utilised for modelling health service capacities by better predicting service times, as captured by Coxian Phase-type distributions, interfaced with results from a classification tree algorithm. To illustrate the approach, a case-study within the healthcare delivery domain is given, namely that of maternity services. The classification analysis is shown to give good predictors for complications during childbirth. Based on the classification tree predictions, the duration of childbirth on the labour ward is then modelled as either a two or three-phase Coxian distribution. The resulting DC-Ph model is used to calculate the number of patients and associated bed occupancies, patient turnover, and to model the consequences of changes to risk status.

SOCS2 regulates T helper type 2 differentiation and the generation of type 2 allergic responses

The incidence of allergy and asthma in developed countries is on the increase and this trend looks likely to continue. CD4(+) T helper 2 (Th2) cells are major drivers of these diseases and their commitment is controlled by cytokines such as interleukin 4, which are in turn regulated by the suppressor of cytokine signaling (SOCS) proteins. We report that SOCS2(-/-) CD4(+) T cells show markedly enhanced Th2 differentiation. SOCS2(-/-) mice, as well as RAG1(-/-) mice transferred with SOCS2(-/-) CD4(+) T cells, exhibit elevated type 2 responses after helminth antigen challenge. Moreover, in in vivo models of atopic dermatitis and allergen-induced airway inflammation, SOCS2(-/-) mice show significantly elevated IgE, eosinophilia, type 2 responses, and inflammatory pathology relative to wild-type mice. Finally, after T cell activation, markedly enhanced STAT6 and STAT5 phosphorylation is observed in SOCS2(-/-) T cells, whereas STAT3 phosphorylation is blunted. Thus, we provide the first evidence that SOCS2 plays an important role in regulating Th2 cell expansion and development of the type 2 allergic responses.

Flow-mediated dilatation of the brachial artery is a poorly reproducible indicator of microvascular function in Type I diabetes mellitus

Aim: Two Type I diabetes and control group comparator studies were conducted to assess the reproducibility of FMD and to analyse blood flow data normally discarded during FMD measurement.

Design: The studies were sequential and differed only with regard to operator and ultrasound machine. Seventy-two subjects with diabetes and 71 controls were studied in total.

Methods: Subjects had FMD measured conventionally. Blood velocity waveforms were averaged over 10 pulses post forearm ischaemia and their component frequencies analysed using the wavelet transform, a mathematical tool for waveform analysis. The component frequencies were grouped into 11 bands to facilitate analysis.

Results: Subjects were well-matched between studies. In Study 1, FMD was significantly impaired in subjects with Type I diabetes vs. controls (median 4.35%, interquartile range 3.10-4.80 vs. 6.50, 4.79-9.42, P < 0.001). No differences were detected between groups in Study 2, however. However, analysis of blood velocity waveforms yielded significant differences between groups in two frequency bands in each study.

Conclusions: This report highlights concerns over the reproducibility of FMD measures. Further work is required to fully elucidate the role of analysing velocity waveforms after forearm ischaemia.

A Novel Multilocus Sequence Typing Scheme for the Opportunistic Pathogen Propionibacterium acnes and Characterisation of Type I Cell Surface-Associated Antigens.

We have developed a novel Multilocus Sequence Typing Scheme (MLST) and database (http://pubmlst.org/pacnes/) for Propionibacterium acnes based on the analysis of seven core housekeeping genes. The scheme, which was validated against previously described antibody, single locus and Random Amplification of Polymorphic DNA (RAPD) typing methods, displayed excellent resolution and differentiated 123 isolates into 37 sequence types (ST). An overall clonal population structure was detected with six eBURST groups representing the major clades I, II and III, along with two singletons. Two highly successful and global clonal lineages, ST6 (type IA) and ST10 (type IB1), representing 65% of this current MLST isolate collection were identified. The ST6 clone and closely related single locus variants (SLV), which comprise a large clonal complex CC6, dominated isolates from patients with acne, and were also significantly associated with ophthalmic infections. Our data therefore supports an association between acne and P. acnes strains from the type IA cluster and highlights the role of a widely disseminated clonal genotype in this condition. Characterisation of type I cell surface-associated antigens that are not detected in ST10 or strains of type II and III identified two dermatan-sulphate-binding proteins with putative phase/antigenic variation signatures. We propose that the expression of these proteins by type IA organisms contributes to their role in the pathophysiology of acne and helps explain the recurrent nature of the disease. The MLST scheme and database described in this study should provide a valuable platform for future epidemiological and evolutionary studies of P. acnes.

Influence of pharmaceutical care on health outcomes in patients with Type 2 diabetes mellitus

WHAT IS ALREADY KNOWN ABOUT THIS SUBJECT

Birth order and childhood type 1 diabetes risk: A pooled analysis of 31 observational studies

Background: The incidence rates of childhood onset type 1 diabetes are almost universally increasing across the globe but the aetiology of the disease remains largely unknown. We investigated whether birth order is associated with the risk of childhood diabetes by performing a pooled analysis of previous studies. Methods: Relevant studies published before January 2010 were identified from MEDLINE, Web of Science and EMBASE. Authors of studies provided individual patient data or conducted pre-specified analyses. Meta-analysis techniques were used to derive combined odds ratios (ORs), before and after adjustment for confounders, and investigate heterogeneity. Results: Data were available for 6 cohort and 25 case-control studies, including 11 955 cases of type 1 diabetes. Overall, there was no evidence of an association prior to adjustment for confounders. After adjustment for maternal age at birth and other confounders, a reduction in the risk of diabetes in second-or later born children became apparent [fully adjusted OR=0.90 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.83-0.98; P=0.02] but this association varied markedly between studies (I 2=67%). An a priori subgroup analysis showed that the association was stronger and more consistent in children <5years of age (n=25 studies, maternal age adjusted OR=0.84 95% CI 0.75, 0.93; I 2=23%). Conclusion: Although the association varied between studies, there was some evidence of a lower risk of childhood onset type 1 diabetes with increasing birth order, particularly in children aged <5 years. This finding could reflect increased exposure to infections in early life in later born children. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association © The Author 2010; all rights reserved.

Optimal glycaemic control, pre-eclampsia and gestational hypertension in women with type 1 diabetes in the Diabetes and Pre-Eclampsia Intervention Trial

OBJECTIVE
To assess the relationship between glycemic control, pre-eclampsia, and gestational hypertension in women with type 1 diabetes.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS
Pregnancy outcome (pre-eclampsia or gestational hypertension) was assessed prospectively in 749 women from the randomized controlled Diabetes and Pre-eclampsia Intervention Trial (DAPIT). HbA1c (A1C) values were available up to 6 months before pregnancy (n = 542), at the first antenatal visit (median 9 weeks) (n = 721), at 26 weeks’ gestation (n = 592), and at 34 weeks’ gestation (n = 519) and were categorized as optimal (<6.1%: referent), good (6.1–6.9%), moderate (7.0–7.9%), and poor (=8.0%) glycemic control, respectively.

RESULTS
Pre-eclampsia and gestational hypertension developed in 17 and 11% of pregnancies, respectively. Women who developed pre-eclampsia had significantly higher A1C values before and during pregnancy compared with women who did not develop pre-eclampsia (P < 0.05, respectively). In early pregnancy, A1C =8.0% was associated with a significantly increased risk of pre-eclampsia (odds ratio 3.68 [95% CI 1.17–11.6]) compared with optimal control. At 26 weeks’ gestation, A1C values =6.1% (good: 2.09 [1.03–4.21]; moderate: 3.20 [1.47–7.00]; and poor: 3.81 [1.30–11.1]) and at 34 weeks’ gestation A1C values =7.0% (moderate: 3.27 [1.31–8.20] and poor: 8.01 [2.04–31.5]) significantly increased the risk of pre-eclampsia compared with optimal control. The adjusted odds ratios for pre-eclampsia for each 1% decrement in A1C before pregnancy, at the first antenatal visit, at 26 weeks’ gestation, and at 34 weeks’ gestation were 0.88 (0.75–1.03), 0.75 (0.64–0.88), 0.57 (0.42–0.78), and 0.47 (0.31–0.70), respectively. Glycemic control was not significantly associated with gestational hypertension.

CONCLUSIONS
Women who developed pre-eclampsia had significantly higher A1C values before and during pregnancy. These data suggest that optimal glycemic control both early and throughout pregnancy may reduce the risk of pre-eclampsia in women with type 1 diabetes.

Disordered eating attitudes among female adolescents with Type 1 Diabetes: Role of mothers.

Previous research has demonstrated that disordered eating among adolescent females with type 1 diabetes (T1D) is related to the weight loss and eating attitudes of their mothers. The present research sought to examine the extent to which female adolescents’ perceptions of their mother’s weight loss and eating attitudes and behaviours explained the adolescents’ disordered eating attitudes and behaviours. Female adolescents with T1D and their mothers completed self-report questionnaires during outpatient clinic visits. Adolescents’ perceptions of their mother’s frequency of dieting behaviour and the importance of thinness to their mother were significant covariates of the adolescents’ body dissatisfaction and drive for thinness. Attitudes about disordered eating were also explained by different elements of family cohesion and mothers’ attitudes to weight loss. Routinely assessing perceptions of family and maternal attitudes and adopting a systemic approach to the care of adolescent females with T1D may help with the identification and management of these at-risk individuals.

Characterization of Nickel Germanide Schottky Contacts for the Fabrication of Germanium p-channel MOSFETs

Nickel germanide Schottky contacts, formed by rapid thermal annealing of thin nickel films, have been characterized on n-type germanium wafers for a range of RTA temperatures. The highest Schottky barrier heights for electrons (= 0.6-0.7 eV) were obtained for RTA temperatures of approximately 300°C. For this RTA schedule, the corresponding barrier height for holes is close to zero, ideal for Schottky contacted p-channel germanium MOSFETs. When the RTA temperature was increased to 400oC, a dramatic reduction in electron barrier height (< 0.1 eV) was observed. This RTA schedule, therefore, appears ideal for ohmic source/drain contacts to n channel germanium MOSFETs. From sheet resistance measurements and XRD characterization, nickel germanide formation was found to occur at 300oC and above. The NiGe phase was dominant for RTA temperatures up to at least 435oC.

Identification of a major GpVI-binding locus in human type III collagen

We have analyzed the adhesion of human and murine platelets, and of recombinant human and murine GpVI ectodomains, to synthetic triple-helical collagen-like peptides. These included 57 peptides derived from the sequence of human type III collagen and 9 peptides derived from the cyanogen bromide fragment of bovine type III collagen, alpha 1(III)CB4. We have identified several peptides that interact with GpVI, in particular a peptide designated III-30 with the sequence GAOGLRGGAGPOG-PEGGKGAAGPOGPO. Both human and murine platelets bound to peptide III-30 in a GpVI-dependent manner. III-30 also supported binding of recombinant GpVI ectodomains. Cross-linked III-30 induced aggregation of human and murine platelets, although with a lower potency than collagen-related peptide. Modifications of the peptide sequence indicated that the hydroxyproline residues play a significant role in supporting its GpVI reactivity. However, many peptides containing OGP/ GPO motifs did not support adhesion to GpVI. These data indicate that the ability of a triple-helical peptide to bind GpVI is not solely determined by the presence or spatial arrangement of these OGP/GPO motifs within the peptides.

Rotating massive main-sequence stars II. Simulating a population of LMC early B-type stars as a test of rotational mixing

Context. Rotational mixing in massive stars is a widely applied concept, with far-reaching consequences for stellar evolution, nucleosynthesis, and stellar explosions.