Model updating using genetic algorithms with sequential niche technique

The authors would like to express their gratitude to organizations and people that supported this research. Piotr Omenzetter’s work within the Lloyd’s Register Foundation Centre for Safety and Reliability Engineering at the University of Aberdeen is supported by Lloyd’s Register Foundation. The Foundation helps to protect life and property by supporting engineering-related education, public engagement and the application of research. Ben Ryder of Aurecon and Graeme Cummings of HEB Construction assisted in obtaining access to the bridge and information for modelling. Luke Williams and Graham Bougen, undergraduate research students, assisted with testing.

State-space modelling of geolocation data reveals sex differences in the use of management areas by breeding northern fulmars

We thank Orkney Islands Council for access to Eynhallow and Talisman Energy (UK) Ltd and Marine Scotland for fieldwork and equipment support. Handling and tagging of fulmars was conducted under licences from the British Trust for Ornithology and the UK Home Office. EE was funded by a Marine Alliance for Science and Technology for Scotland/University of Aberdeen College of Life Sciences and Medicine studentship and LQ was supported by a NERC Studentship. Thanks also to the many colleagues who assisted with fieldwork during the project, and to Helen Bailey and Arliss Winship for advice on implementing the state-space model.

Scientific Discovery in a Space of Structural Models: An Example from the History of Solution Chemistry

Postprint

State-space modelling of geolocation data reveals sex differences in the use of management areas by breeding northern fulmars

We thank Orkney Islands Council for access to Eynhallow and Talisman Energy (UK) Ltd and Marine Scotland for fieldwork and equipment support. Handling and tagging of fulmars was conducted under licences from the British Trust for Ornithology and the UK Home Office. EE was funded by a Marine Alliance for Science and Technology for Scotland/University of Aberdeen College of Life Sciences and Medicine studentship and LQ was supported by a NERC Studentship. Thanks also to the many colleagues who assisted with fieldwork during the project, and to Helen Bailey and Arliss Winship for advice on implementing the state-space model.

Quality of transmission estimation in WDM and elastic optical networks accounting for space-spectrum dependencies

We develop a framework for estimating the quality of transmission (QoT) of a new lightpath before it is established, as well as for calculating the expected degradation it will cause to existing lightpaths. The framework correlates the QoT metrics of established lightpaths, which are readily available from coherent optical receivers that can be extended to serve as optical performance monitors. Past similar studies used only space (routing) information and thus neglected spectrum, while they focused on oldgeneration noncoherent networks. The proposed framework accounts for correlation in both the space and spectrum domains and can be applied to both fixed-grid wavelength division multiplexing (WDM) and elastic optical networks. It is based on a graph transformation that exposes and models the interference between spectrum-neighboring channels. Our results indicate that our QoT estimates are very close to the actual performance data, that is, to having perfect knowledge of the physical layer. The proposed estimation framework is shown to provide up to 4 × 10-2 lower pre-forward error correction bit error ratio (BER) compared to theworst-case interference scenario,which overestimates the BER. The higher accuracy can be harvested when lightpaths are provisioned with low margins; our results showed up to 47% reduction in required regenerators, a substantial savings in equipment cost.

Spaces of Order: An African Poetics of Space

“Spaces of Order” argues that the African novel should be studied as a revolutionary form characterized by aesthetic innovations that are not comprehensible in terms of the novel’s European archive of forms. It does this by mapping an African spatial order that undermines the spatial problematic at the formal and ideological core of the novel—the split between a private, subjective interior, and an abstract, impersonal outside. The project opens with an examination of spatial fragmentation as figured in the “endless forest” of Amos Tutuola’s The Palmwine Drinkard (1952). The second chapter studies Chinua Achebe’s Things Fall Apart (1958) as a fictional world built around a peculiar category of space, the “evil forest,” which constitutes an African principle of order and modality of power. Chapter three returns to Tutuola via Ben Okri’s The Famished Road (1991) and shows how the dispersal of fragmentary spaces of exclusion and terror within the colonial African city helps us conceive of political imaginaries outside the nation and other forms of liberal political communities. The fourth chapter shows Nnedi Okorafor—in her 2014 science-fiction novel Lagoon—rewriting Things Fall Apart as an alien-encounter narrative in which Africa is center-stage of a planetary, multi-species drama. Spaces of Order is a study of the African novel as a new logic of world making altogether.

Elucidating the Space-Time Structure of Low Level Warm Season Precipitation Processes in the Southern Appalachian Mountains Using Models and Observations

Light rainfall is the baseline input to the annual water budget in mountainous landscapes through the tropics and at mid-latitudes. In the Southern Appalachians, the contribution from light rainfall ranges from 50-60% during wet years to 80-90% during dry years, with convective activity and tropical cyclone input providing most of the interannual variability. The Southern Appalachians is a region characterized by rich biodiversity that is vulnerable to land use/land cover changes due to its proximity to a rapidly growing population. Persistent near surface moisture and associated microclimates observed in this region has been well documented since the colonization of the area in terms of species health, fire frequency, and overall biodiversity. The overarching objective of this research is to elucidate the microphysics of light rainfall and the dynamics of low level moisture in the inner region of the Southern Appalachians during the warm season, with a focus on orographically mediated processes. The overarching research hypothesis is that physical processes leading to and governing the life cycle of orographic fog, low level clouds, and precipitation, and their interactions, are strongly tied to landform, land cover, and the diurnal cycles of flow patterns, radiative forcing, and surface fluxes at the ridge-valley scale. The following science questions will be addressed specifically: 1) How do orographic clouds and fog affect the hydrometeorological regime from event to annual scale and as a function of terrain characteristics and land cover?; 2) What are the source areas, governing processes, and relevant time-scales of near surface moisture convergence patterns in the region?; and 3) What are the four dimensional microphysical and dynamical characteristics, including variability and controlling factors and processes, of fog and light rainfall? The research was conducted with two major components: 1) ground-based high-quality observations using multi-sensor platforms and 2) interpretive numerical modeling guided by the analysis of the in situ data collection. Findings illuminate a high level of spatial – down to the ridge scale - and temporal – from event to annual scale - heterogeneity in observations, and a significant impact on the hydrological regime as a result of seeder-feeder interactions among fog, low level clouds, and stratiform rainfall that enhance coalescence efficiency and lead to significantly higher rainfall rates at the land surface. Specifically, results show that enhancement of an event up to one order of magnitude in short-term accumulation can occur as a result of concurrent fog presence. Results also show that events are modulated strongly by terrain characteristics including elevation, slope, geometry, and land cover. These factors produce interactions between highly localized flows and gradients of temperature and moisture with larger scale circulations. Resulting observations of DSD and rainfall patterns are stratified by region and altitude and exhibit clear diurnal and seasonal cycles.

Latent Space and Social Psychological Models of Diffusion

The problem of social diffusion has animated sociological thinking on topics ranging from the spread of an idea, an innovation or a disease, to the foundations of collective behavior and political polarization. While network diffusion has been a productive metaphor, the reality of diffusion processes is often muddier. Ideas and innovations diffuse differently from diseases, but, with a few exceptions, the diffusion of ideas and innovations has been modeled under the same assumptions as the diffusion of disease. In this dissertation, I develop two new diffusion models for "socially meaningful" contagions that address two of the most significant problems with current diffusion models: (1) that contagions can only spread along observed ties, and (2) that contagions do not change as they spread between people. I augment insights from these statistical and simulation models with an analysis of an empirical case of diffusion - the use of enterprise collaboration software in a large technology company. I focus the empirical study on when people abandon innovations, a crucial, and understudied aspect of the diffusion of innovations. Using timestamped posts, I analyze when people abandon software to a high degree of detail.

To address the first problem, I suggest a latent space diffusion model. Rather than treating ties as stable conduits for information, the latent space diffusion model treats ties as random draws from an underlying social space, and simulates diffusion over the social space. Theoretically, the social space model integrates both actor ties and attributes simultaneously in a single social plane, while incorporating schemas into diffusion processes gives an explicit form to the reciprocal influences that cognition and social environment have on each other. Practically, the latent space diffusion model produces statistically consistent diffusion estimates where using the network alone does not, and the diffusion with schemas model shows that introducing some cognitive processing into diffusion processes changes the rate and ultimate distribution of the spreading information. To address the second problem, I suggest a diffusion model with schemas. Rather than treating information as though it is spread without changes, the schema diffusion model allows people to modify information they receive to fit an underlying mental model of the information before they pass the information to others. Combining the latent space models with a schema notion for actors improves our models for social diffusion both theoretically and practically.

The empirical case study focuses on how the changing value of an innovation, introduced by the innovations' network externalities, influences when people abandon the innovation. In it, I find that people are least likely to abandon an innovation when other people in their neighborhood currently use the software as well. The effect is particularly pronounced for supervisors' current use and number of supervisory team members who currently use the software. This case study not only points to an important process in the diffusion of innovation, but also suggests a new approach -- computerized collaboration systems -- to collecting and analyzing data on organizational processes.

Moduli Space of (0,2) Conformal Field Theories

In this thesis we study aspects of (0,2) superconformal field theories (SCFTs), which are suitable for compactification of the heterotic string. In the first part, we study a class of (2,2) SCFTs obtained by fibering a Landau-Ginzburg (LG) orbifold CFT over a compact K\"ahler base manifold. While such models are naturally obtained as phases in a gauged linear sigma model (GLSM), our construction is independent of such an embedding. We discuss the general properties of such theories and present a technique to study the massless spectrum of the associated heterotic compactification. We test the validity of our method by applying it to hybrid phases of GLSMs and comparing spectra among the phases. In the second part, we turn to the study of the role of accidental symmetries in two-dimensional (0,2) SCFTs obtained by RG flow from (0,2) LG theories. These accidental symmetries are ubiquitous, and, unlike in the case of (2,2) theories, their identification is key to correctly identifying the IR fixed point and its properties. We develop a number of tools that help to identify such accidental symmetries in the context of (0,2) LG models and provide a conjecture for a toric structure of the SCFT moduli space in a large class of models. In the final part, we study the stability of heterotic compactifications described by (0,2) GLSMs with respect to worldsheet instanton corrections to the space-time superpotential following the work of Beasley and Witten. We show that generic models elude the vanishing theorem proved there, and may not determine supersymmetric heterotic vacua. We then construct a subclass of GLSMs for which a vanishing theorem holds.

Distributed Feature Selection in Large n and Large p Regression Problems

Fitting statistical models is computationally challenging when the sample size or the dimension of the dataset is huge. An attractive approach for down-scaling the problem size is to first partition the dataset into subsets and then fit using distributed algorithms. The dataset can be partitioned either horizontally (in the sample space) or vertically (in the feature space), and the challenge arise in defining an algorithm with low communication, theoretical guarantees and excellent practical performance in general settings. For sample space partitioning, I propose a MEdian Selection Subset AGgregation Estimator ({\em message}) algorithm for solving these issues. The algorithm applies feature selection in parallel for each subset using regularized regression or Bayesian variable selection method, calculates the `median' feature inclusion index, estimates coefficients for the selected features in parallel for each subset, and then averages these estimates. The algorithm is simple, involves very minimal communication, scales efficiently in sample size, and has theoretical guarantees. I provide extensive experiments to show excellent performance in feature selection, estimation, prediction, and computation time relative to usual competitors.

While sample space partitioning is useful in handling datasets with large sample size, feature space partitioning is more effective when the data dimension is high. Existing methods for partitioning features, however, are either vulnerable to high correlations or inefficient in reducing the model dimension. In the thesis, I propose a new embarrassingly parallel framework named {\em DECO} for distributed variable selection and parameter estimation. In {\em DECO}, variables are first partitioned and allocated to m distributed workers. The decorrelated subset data within each worker are then fitted via any algorithm designed for high-dimensional problems. We show that by incorporating the decorrelation step, DECO can achieve consistent variable selection and parameter estimation on each subset with (almost) no assumptions. In addition, the convergence rate is nearly minimax optimal for both sparse and weakly sparse models and does NOT depend on the partition number m. Extensive numerical experiments are provided to illustrate the performance of the new framework.

For datasets with both large sample sizes and high dimensionality, I propose a new "divided-and-conquer" framework {\em DEME} (DECO-message) by leveraging both the {\em DECO} and the {\em message} algorithm. The new framework first partitions the dataset in the sample space into row cubes using {\em message} and then partition the feature space of the cubes using {\em DECO}. This procedure is equivalent to partitioning the original data matrix into multiple small blocks, each with a feasible size that can be stored and fitted in a computer in parallel. The results are then synthezied via the {\em DECO} and {\em message} algorithm in a reverse order to produce the final output. The whole framework is extremely scalable.

Path Optimization in Free Energy Calculations

Free energy calculations are a computational method for determining thermodynamic quantities, such as free energies of binding, via simulation.

Currently, due to computational and algorithmic limitations, free energy calculations are limited in scope.

In this work, we propose two methods for improving the efficiency of free energy calculations.

First, we expand the state space of alchemical intermediates, and show that this expansion enables us to calculate free energies along lower variance paths.

We use Q-learning, a reinforcement learning technique, to discover and optimize paths at low computational cost.

Second, we reduce the cost of sampling along a given path by using sequential Monte Carlo samplers.

We develop a new free energy estimator, pCrooks (pairwise Crooks), a variant on the Crooks fluctuation theorem (CFT), which enables decomposition of the variance of the free energy estimate for discrete paths, while retaining beneficial characteristics of CFT.

Combining these two advancements, we show that for some test models, optimal expanded-space paths have a nearly 80% reduction in variance relative to the standard path.

Additionally, our free energy estimator converges at a more consistent rate and on average 1.8 times faster when we enable path searching, even when the cost of path discovery and refinement is considered.

A Space of One's Own: Women's Magazine Consumption Within Family Life

This is a study of women's magazine consumption in the home. It explores issues of time and space, and addresses the importance the women who took part in the study place on magazine consumption in their lives, given the 'juggling' lifestyles experiences by most of them. The study reveals family life to be a landscape within which these women carve out what they perceive as valuable and rare time and space for themselves. The authors argue that in contemporary life women's magazines play a key part in the quest for me-time and time away from others, in both a tangible and experiential sense.

The design studio as liminal space

The context of this research focuses on the efficacy of design studio as a form of teaching and learning. The established model of project-based teaching makes simple parallels between studio and professional practice. However, through comparison of the discourses it is clear that they are of different character. The protocols of the tutorial tradition can act to position the tutor as a defender of the knowledge community rather than a discourse guide for the student. The question arises as to what constitutes the core knowledge that would enable better self-directed study. Rather than focus on key knowledge, there has been an attempt in other fields to agree and share ‘threshold concepts’ within disciplinary knowledge. Meyer and Land describe threshold concepts as representing “a transformed way of understanding, or interpreting or viewing something without which the learner cannot progress [1]. The tutor’s role should be to assist in transforming student’s understanding through the mastery of the ‘troublesome knowledge’ that threshold concepts may embody. Teaching and learning environments under such approaches have been described as ‘liminal’: holding the learner in an ‘in-between’ state new understanding may be difficult and involve identity shifts. Research on the consequence of pressures on facilities and studio space concur, and indicate that studio spaces can be much better used in assisting the path of learning [2]. Through an overview map of threshold concepts, the opportunities for blended learning in supporting student learning in the liminal space of the design studio become much clearer [3] Design studio needs to be recontextualised within the discourse of higher education scholarship, based on a clarified curriculum built from an understanding of what constitutes its threshold concepts. The studio needs to be reconsidered as a space quite unlike that of the practitioner, a liminal space. 1. Meyer, J.H.F. and R. Land, Threshold concepts and troublesome knowledge. Overcoming Barriers to Student Learning: Threshold concepts and troublesome knowledge., 2006: p. 19. 2. Cai, H. and S. Khan, The Common First Year Studio in a Hot-desking Age: An Explorative Study on the Studio Environment and Learning. Journal for Education in the Built Environment 2010. 5(2): p. 39-64. 3. Pektas, S.T., The Blended Design Studio: An Appraisal of New Delivery Modes in Design Education. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 2012. 51(0): p. 692-697.

Integrated Monitoring of Mola mola Behaviour in Space and Time

Over the last decade, ocean sunfish movements have been monitored worldwide using various satellite tracking methods. This study reports the near-real time monitoring of fine-scale (< 10 m) behaviour of sunfish. The study was conducted in southern Portugal in May 2014 and involved satellite tags and underwater and surface robotic vehicles to measure both the movements and the contextual environment of the fish. A total of four individuals were tracked using custom-made GPS satellite tags providing geolocation estimates of fine-scale resolution. These accurate positions further informed sunfish areas of restricted search (ARS), which were directly correlated to steep thermal frontal zones. Simultaneously, and for two different occasions, an Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUV) video-recorded the path of the tracked fish and detected buoyant particles in the water column. Importantly, the densities of these particles were also directly correlated to steep thermal gradients. Thus, both sunfish foraging behaviour (ARS) and possibly prey densities, were found to be influenced by analogous environmental conditions. In addition, the dynamic structure of the water transited by the tracked individuals was described by a Lagrangian modelling approach. The model informed the distribution of zooplankton in the region, both horizontally and in the water column, and the resultant simulated densities positively correlated with sunfish ARS behaviour estimator (rs = 0.184, p<0.001). The model also revealed that tracked fish opportunistically displace with respect to subsurface current flow. Thus, we show how physical forcing and current structure provide a rationale for a predator’s fine-scale behaviour observed over a two weeks in May 2014.