Economic structure and key sectors analysis of greenhouse gas emissions in Uruguay

This paper identifies the key sectors in greenhouse gas emissions of the Uruguayan economy through input-output analysis. This allows to precisely determine the role played by the different productive sectors and their relationship with other sectors in the relation between the Uruguayan productive structure and atmospheric pollution. In order to guide policy design for GHG reduction, we decompose sectors liability between the pollution generated through their own production processes and the pollution indirectly generated in the production processes of other sectors. The results show that all the key polluting sectors for the different contaminants considered are relevant because of their own emissions, except for the sector Motor vehicles and oil retail trade, which is relevant in CO2 emissions because of its pure, both backward and forward, linkages. Finally, the best policy channels for controlling and reducing GHGs emissions are identified, and compared with the National Climate Change Response Plan (NCCRP) lines of action.

Shocking policy coefficients

This paper proposes an empirical framework to study the effects of a policy regime change defined as an unpredictable and permanent change in the policy parameters. In particular I show how to make conditional forecast and perform impulse response functions and counterfactual analysis. As an application, the effects of changes in fiscal policy rules in the US are investigated. I find that discretionary fiscal policy has become more countercyclical over the last decades. In absence of such a change, surplus would have been higher, debt lower and output gap more volatile but only until mid 80s. An increase in the degree of counter-cyclicality of fiscal policy has a positive effect on output gap in periods where the level of debt-to-GDP ratio is low and a zero or negative effect when the ratio is high. This explains why a more countercylical stance of the systematic fiscal policy taking place in 2008:II is predicted to be rather ineffective for recovering from the crisis.

Evaluation of the efficacy and safety of lanreotide in combination with targeted therapies in patients with neuroendocrine tumours in clinical practice: a retrospective cross-sectional analysis.

BACKGROUND Based on the mechanism of action, combining somatostatin analogues (SSAs) with mTOR inhibitors or antiangiogenic agents may provide synergistic effects for the treatment of patients with neuroendocrine tumours (NETs). Herein, we investigate the use of these treatment combinations in clinical practice. METHODS This retrospective cross-sectional analysis of patients with NETs treated with the SSA lanreotide and targeted therapies at 35 Spanish hospitals evaluated the efficacy and safety of lanreotide treatment combinations in clinical practice. The data of 159 treatment combinations with lanreotide in 133 patients was retrospectively collected. RESULTS Of the 133 patients, with a median age of 59.4 (16-83) years, 70 (52.6 %) patients were male, 64 (48.1 %) had pancreatic NET, 23 (17.3 %) had ECOG PS ≥2, 41 (30.8 %) had functioning tumours, 63 (47.7 %) underwent surgery of the primary tumour, 45 (33.8 %) had received prior chemotherapy, and 115 (86.5 %) had received prior SSAs. 115 patients received 1 lanreotide treatment combination and 18 patients received between 2 and 5 combinations. Lanreotide was mainly administered in combination with everolimus (73 combinations) or sunitinib (61 combinations). The probability of being progression-free was 78.5 % (6 months), 68.6 % (12 months) and 57.0 % (18 months) for patients who only received everolimus plus lanreotide (n = 57) and 89.3 % (6 months), 73.0 % (12 months), and 67.4 % (18 months) for patients who only received sunitinib and lanreotide (n = 50). In patients who only received everolimus plus lanreotide the median time-to-progression from the initiation of lanreotide combination treatment was 25.8 months (95 % CI, 11.3, 40.3) and it had not yet been reached among the subgroup of patients only receiving sunitinib plus lanreotide. The safety profile of the combination treatment was comparable to that of the targeted agent alone. CONCLUSIONS The combination of lanreotide and targeted therapies, mainly everolimus and sunitinib, is widely used in clinical practice without unexpected toxicities and suggests efficacy that should be explored in randomized prospective clinical trials.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of the first-line therapies for nicotine dependence.

BACKGROUND: Nicotine dependence is the major obstacle for smokers who want to quit. Guidelines have identified five effective first-line therapies, four nicotine replacement therapies (NRTs)--gum, patch, nasal spray and inhaler--and bupropion. Studying the extent to which these various treatments are cost-effective requires additional research. OBJECTIVES: To determine cost-effectiveness (CE) ratios of pharmacotherapies for nicotine dependence provided by general practitioners (GPs) during routine visits as an adjunct to cessation counselling. METHODS: We used a Markov model to generate two cohorts of one-pack-a-day smokers: (1) the reference cohort received only cessation counselling from a GP during routine office visits; (2) the second cohort received the same counselling plus an offer to use a pharmacological treatment to help them quit smoking. The effectiveness of adjunctive therapy was expressed in terms of the resultant differential in mortality rate between the two cohorts. Data on the effectiveness of therapies came from meta-analyses, and we used odds ratio for quitting as the measure of effectiveness. The costs of pharmacotherapies were based on the cost of the additional time spent by GPs offering, prescribing and following-up treatment, and on the retail prices of the therapies. We used the third-party-payer perspective. Results are expressed as the incremental cost per life-year saved. RESULTS: The cost per life-year saved for only counselling ranged from Euro 385 to Euro 622 for men and from Euro 468 to Euro 796 for women. The CE ratios for the five pharmacological treatments varied from Euro 1768 to Euro 6879 for men, and from Euro 2146 to Euro 8799 for women. Significant variations in CE ratios among the five treatments were primarily due to differences in retail prices. The most cost-effective treatments were bupropion and the patch, and, then, in descending order, the spray, the inhaler and, lastly, gum. Differences in CE between men and women across treatments were due to the shape of their respective mortality curve. The lowest CE ratio in men was for the 45- to 49-year-old group and for women in the 50- to 54-year-old group. Sensitivity analysis showed that changes in treatment efficacy produced effects only for less-well proven treatments (spray, inhaler, and bupropion) and revealed a strong influence of the discount rate and natural quit rate on the CE of pharmacological treatments. CONCLUSION: The CE of first-line treatments for nicotine dependence varied widely with age and sex and was sensitive to the assumption for the natural quit rate. Bupropion and the nicotine patch were the two most cost-effective treatments.

A Factor analysis of hidrochemical composition of Llobregat river basin

Hydrogeological research usually includes some statistical studies devised to elucidate mean background state, characterise relationships among different hydrochemical parameters, and show the influence of human activities. These goals are achieved either by means of a statistical approach or by mixing modelsbetween end-members. Compositional data analysis has proved to be effective with the first approach, but there is no commonly accepted solution to the end-member problem in a compositional framework.We present here a possible solution based on factor analysis of compositions illustrated with a case study.We find two factors on the compositional bi-plot fitting two non-centered orthogonal axes to the most representative variables. Each one of these axes defines a subcomposition, grouping those variables thatlay nearest to it. With each subcomposition a log-contrast is computed and rewritten as an equilibrium equation. These two factors can be interpreted as the isometric log-ratio coordinates (ilr) of three hiddencomponents, that can be plotted in a ternary diagram. These hidden components might be interpreted as end-members.We have analysed 14 molarities in 31 sampling stations all along the Llobregat River and its tributaries, with a monthly measure during two years. We have obtained a bi-plot with a 57% of explained totalvariance, from which we have extracted two factors: factor G, reflecting geological background enhanced by potash mining; and factor A, essentially controlled by urban and/or farming wastewater. Graphicalrepresentation of these two factors allows us to identify three extreme samples, corresponding to pristine waters, potash mining influence and urban sewage influence. To confirm this, we have available analysisof diffused and widespread point sources identified in the area: springs, potash mining lixiviates, sewage, and fertilisers. Each one of these sources shows a clear link with one of the extreme samples, exceptfertilisers due to the heterogeneity of their composition.This approach is a useful tool to distinguish end-members, and characterise them, an issue generally difficult to solve. It is worth note that the end-member composition cannot be fully estimated but only characterised through log-ratio relationships among components. Moreover, the influence of each endmember in a given sample must be evaluated in relative terms of the other samples. These limitations areintrinsic to the relative nature of compositional data

Influence of structural heterogeneities and of large scale topography on imbricate gravitational rock slope failures: New insights from 3-D physical modeling and geomorphological analysis

Initial topography and inherited structural discontinuities are known to play a dominant role in rock slope stability. Previous 2-D physical modeling results demonstrated that even if few preexisting fractures are activated/propagated during gravitational failure all of those heterogeneities had a great influence on mobilized volume and its kinematics. The question we address in the present study is to determine if such a result is also observed in 3-D. As in 2-D previous models we examine geologically stable model configuration, based upon the well documented landslide at Randa, Switzerland. The 3-D models consisted of a homogeneous material in which several fracture zones were introduced in order to study simplified but realistic configurations of discontinuities (e.g. based on natural example rather than a parametric study). Results showed that the type of gravitational failure (deep-seated landslide or sequential failure) and resulting slope morphology evolution are the result of the interplay of initial topography and inherited preexisting fractures (orientation and density). The three main results are i) the initial topography exerts a strong control on gravitational slope failure. Indeed in each tested configuration (even in the isotropic one without fractures) the model is affected by a rock slide, ii) the number of simulated fracture sets greatly influences the volume mobilized and its kinematics, and iii) the failure zone involved in the 1991 event is smaller than the results produced by the analog modeling. This failure may indicate that the zone mobilized in 1991 is potentially only a part of a larger deep-seated landslide and/or wider deep seated gravitational slope deformation.

Multi-modal Change Detection, Application to the Detection of Flooded Areas: Outcome of the 2009-2010 data fusion contest

The 2009-2010 Data Fusion Contest organized by the Data Fusion Technical Committee of the IEEE Geoscience and Remote Sensing Society was focused on the detection of flooded areas using multi-temporal and multi-modal images. Both high spatial resolution optical and synthetic aperture radar data were provided. The goal was not only to identify the best algorithms (in terms of accuracy), but also to investigate the further improvement derived from decision fusion. This paper presents the four awarded algorithms and the conclusions of the contest, investigating both supervised and unsupervised methods and the use of multi-modal data for flood detection. Interestingly, a simple unsupervised change detection method provided similar accuracy as supervised approaches, and a digital elevation model-based predictive method yielded a comparable projected change detection map without using post-event data.

The cervico-thoracic outlet compression syndrome. Analysis of surgical treatment.

Surgical treatment of the thoracic outlet compression syndrome is being presently reconsidered. Until these last few years, there was the choice between two interventions only: scalenotomy, a simple operation entailing no complication, but with a 60% recurrence rate--or the resection of the first rib through an axillary approach, an efficacious intervention which caused, however, serious nervous complications in 14% of treated cases. The follow-up of 75 cases operated for a TOCS reveals to the authors that--all techniques taken into account--results are unsatisfactory in 33% of cases. These failures are due either to technical deficiencies, or to a complication arising in the course of the operation, or to an erroneous diagnosis. The authors resort to surgery only to treat serious vascular syndromes (absolute indication) or invalidating neurological compression syndromes, after failure of physical therapy (relative indication). They propose a cervical approach--the only one enabling a safe dissection of the brachial plexus--a partial scalenectomy, resection of all fibrous bands pressing on nervous trunks, or the resection of a cervical rib. Should the costo-clavicular space appear anatomically too narrow, the first rib, already partially freed by the cervical approach, will be resected through the axillary route.

Analysis and Design of a secure WLAN solution for Cobre Las Cruces

Cobre Las Cruces is a renowned copper mining company located in Sevilla, with unexpected problems in wireless communications that have a direct affectation in production. Therefore, the main goals are to improve the WiFi infrastructure, to secure it and to detect and prevent from attacks and from the installation of rogue (and non-authorized) APs. All of that integrated with the current ICT infrastructure.This project has been divided into four phases, although only two of them have been included into the TFC; they are the analysis of the current situation and the design of a WLAN solution.Once the analysis part was finished, some weaknesses were detected. Subjects such as lack of connectivity and control, ignorance about installed WiFi devices and their localization and state and, by and large, the use of weak security mechanisms were some of the problems found. Additionally, due to the fact that the working area became larger and new WiFi infrastructures were added, the first phase took more time than expected.As a result of the detailed analysis, some goals were defined to solve and it was designed a centralized approach able to cope with them. A solution based on 802.11i and 802.1x protocols, digital certificates, a probe system running as IDS/IPS and ligthweight APs in conjunction with a Wireless LAN Controller are the main features.

Quantitative sequence analysis of FBN1 premature termination codons provides evidence for incomplete NMD in leukocytes.

We improved, evaluated, and used Sanger sequencing for quantification of single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) variants in transcripts and gDNA samples. This improved assay resulted in highly reproducible relative allele frequencies (e.g., for a heterozygous gDNA 50.0+/-1.4%, and for a missense mutation-bearing transcript 46.9+/-3.7%) with a lower detection limit of 3-9%. It provided excellent accuracy and linear correlation between expected and observed relative allele frequencies. This sequencing assay, which can also be used for the quantification of copy number variations (CNVs), methylations, mosaicisms, and DNA pools, enabled us to analyze transcripts of the FBN1 gene in fibroblasts and blood samples of patients with suspected Marfan syndrome not only qualitatively but also quantitatively. We report a total of 18 novel and 19 known FBN1 sequence variants leading to a premature termination codon (PTC), 26 of which we analyzed by quantitative sequencing both at gDNA and cDNA levels. The relative amounts of PTC-containing FBN1 transcripts in fresh and PAXgene-stabilized blood samples were significantly higher (33.0+/-3.9% to 80.0+/-7.2%) than those detected in affected fibroblasts with inhibition of nonsense-mediated mRNA decay (NMD) (11.0+/-2.1% to 25.0+/-1.8%), whereas in fibroblasts without NMD inhibition no mutant alleles could be detected. These results provide evidence for incomplete NMD in leukocytes and have particular importance for RNA-based analyses not only in FBN1 but also in other genes.

Comparative analysis of the roles of HtrA-like surface proteases in two virulent Staphylococcus aureus strains.

The HtrA surface protease is involved in the virulence of many pathogens, mainly by its role in stress resistance and bacterial survival. Staphylococcus aureus encodes two putative HtrA-like proteases, referred to as HtrA(1) and HtrA(2). To investigate the roles of HtrA proteins in S. aureus, we constructed htrA(1), htrA(2), and htrA(1) htrA(2) insertion mutants in two genetically different virulent strains, RN6390 and COL. In the RN6390 context, htrA(1) inactivation resulted in sensitivity to puromycin-induced stress. The RN6390 htrA(1) htrA(2) mutant was affected in the expression of several secreted virulence factors comprising the agr regulon. This observation was correlated with the disappearance of the agr RNA III transcript in the RN6390 htrA(1) htrA(2) mutant. The virulence of this mutant was diminished in a rat model of endocarditis. In the COL context, both HtrA(1) and HtrA(2) were essential for thermal stress survival. However, only HtrA(1) had a slight effect on exoprotein expression. The htrA mutations did not diminish the virulence of the COL strain in the rat model of endocarditis. Our results indicate that HtrA proteins have different roles in S. aureus according to the strain, probably depending on specific differences in the regulation of virulence factor and stress protein expression. We propose that HtrA(1) and HtrA(2) contribute to pathogenicity by controlling the production of certain extracellular factors that are crucial for bacterial dissemination, as revealed in the RN6390 background. We speculate that HtrA proteins act in the agr-dependent regulation pathway by assuring folding and/or maturation of some surface components of the agr system.

Functional analysis of Ectodysplasin-A mutations causing selective tooth agenesis.

Mutations of the Ectodysplasin-A (EDA) gene are generally associated with the syndrome hypohidrotic ectodermal dysplasia (MIM 305100), but they can also manifest as selective, non-syndromic tooth agenesis (MIM300606). We have performed an in vitro functional analysis of six selective tooth agenesis-causing EDA mutations (one novel and five known) that are located in the C-terminal tumor necrosis factor homology domain of the protein. Our study reveals that expression, receptor binding or signaling capability of the mutant EDA1 proteins is only impaired in contrast to syndrome-causing mutations, which we have previously shown to abolish EDA1 expression, receptor binding or signaling. Our results support a model in which the development of the human dentition, especially of anterior teeth, requires the highest level of EDA-receptor signaling, whereas other ectodermal appendages, including posterior teeth, have less stringent requirements and form normally in response to EDA mutations with reduced activity.

Towards a system analysis of the early steps of infectious endocarditis pathogenesis

L'endocardite infectieuse (EI) est une maladie potentiellement mortelle qui doit être prévenue dans toute la mesure du possible. Au cours de ces dernières 50 années, les recommandations Américaines et Européennes pour la prophylaxie de PEI proposaient aux patients à risques de prendre un antibiotique, préventif avant de subir une intervention médico-chirurgicale susceptible d'induire une bactériémie transitoire. Cependant, des études épidémiologiques récentes ont montré que la plupart des EI survenaient en dehors de tous actes médico-chirurgicaux, et indépendamment de la prise ou non de prophylaxie antibiotique . L'EI pourrait donc survenir suite à la cumulation de bactériémies spontanées de faibles intensités, associées à des activités de la vie courante telle que le brossage dentaire pour le streptocoques, ou à partir de tissus colonisés ou de cathéters infectés pour les staphylocoques. En conséquence, les recommandations internationales pour la prophylaxie de PEI ont été revues et proposent une diminution drastique de l'utilisation d'antibiotiques. Cependant, le risque d'EI représenté par le cumul de bactériémies de faibles intensités n'a pas été démontré expérimentalement. Nous avons développé un nouveau modèle d'EI expérimentale induite par une inoculation en continu d'une faible quantité de bactéries, simulant le cumul de bactériémies de faibles intensités chez l'homme, et comparé l'infection de Streptococcus gordonii et de Staphylococcus aureus dans ce modèle avec celle du modèle d'IE induite par une bactériémie brève, mais de forte intensité. Nous avons démontré, après injection d'une quantité égale de bactéries, que le nombre de végétations infectées était similaire dans les deux types d'inoculations. Ces résultats expérimentaux ont confirmé l'hypothèse qu'une exposition cumulée à des bactériémies de faibles intensités, en dehors d'une procédure médico-chirurgicale, représentait un risque pour le développement d'une El, comme le suggéraient les études épidémiologiques. En plus, ces résultats ont validé les nouvelles recommandations pour la prophylaxie de l'El, limitant drastiquement l'utilisation d'antibiotiques. Cependant, ces nouvelles recommandations laissent une grande partie (> 90%) de cas potentiels d'EI sans alternatives de préventions, et des nouvelles stratégies prophylactiques doivent être investiguées. Le nouveau modèle d'EI expérimentale représente un modèle réaliste pour étudier des nouvelles mesures prophylactiques potentielles appliquées à des expositions cumulées de bactériémies de faible nombre. Dans un contexte de bactériémies spontanées répétitives, les antibiotiques ne peuvent pas résoudre le problème de la prévention de l'EI. Nous avons donc étudié la une alternative de prévention par l'utilisation d'agents antiplaquettaires. La logique derrière cette approche était basée sur le fait que les plaquettes sont des composants clés dans la formation des végétations cardiaques, et le fait que les bactéries capables d'interagir avec les plaquettes sont plus enclines à induire une El. Les agents antiplaquettaires utilisés ont été l'aspirine (inhibiteur du COX1), la ticlopidine (inhibiteur du P2Y12, le récepteur de l'ADP), et l'eptifibatide et Pabciximab, deux inhibiteurs du GPIIb/IIIa, le récepteur plaquettaire pour le fibrinogène. Les anticoagulants étaient le dabigatran etexilate, inhibant lathrombine et l'acenocumarol, un antagoniste de la vitamine K. L'aspirine, la ticlopidine ou l'eptifibatide seuls n'ont pas permis de prévenir l'infection valvulaire (> 75% animaux infectés). En revanche, la combinaison d'aspirine et de ticlopidine, aussi bien que l'abciximab, ont protégé 45% - 88% des animaux de l'EI par S. gordonii et par S. aureus. L'antithrombotique dabigatran etexilate à protégé 75% des rats contre l'EI par S. aureus, mais pas (< 30% de protection) par S. gordonii. L'acenocoumarol n'a pas eu d'effet sur aucun des deux organismes. En général, ces résultats suggèrent un possible rôle pour les antiplaquettaires et du dabigatran etexilate dans la prophylaxie de l'EI dans un contexte de bactériémies récurrentes de faibles intensités. Cependant, l'effet bénéfique des antiplaquettaires doit être soupesé avec le risque d'hémorragie inhérent à ces molécules, et le fait que les plaquettes jouent un important rôle dans les défenses de l'hôte contre les infections endovasculaires. En plus, le double effet bénéfique du dabigatran etexilate devrait être revu chez les patients porteurs de valves prothétiques, qui ont besoin d'une anticoagulation à vie, et chez lesquels l'EI à S. aureus est associée avec une mortalité de près de 50%. Comme l'approche avec des antiplaquettaires et des antithrombotiques pourrait avoir des limites, une autre stratégie prophylactique pourrait être la vaccination contre des adhésines de surfaces des pathogènes. Chez S. aureus, la protéine de liaison au fibrinogène, ou dumping factor A (ClfA), et la protéine de liaison à la fibronectine (FnbpA) sont des facteurs de virulence nécessaires à l'initiation et l'évolution de PEI. Elles représentent donc des cibles potentielles pour le développement de vaccins contre cette infection. Récemment, des nombreuses publications ont décrit que la bactérie Lactococcus lactis pouvait être utilisée comme vecteur pour la diffusion d'antigènes bactériens in vivo, et que cette approche pourrait être une stratégie de vaccination contre les infections bactériennes. Nous avons exploré l'effet de l'immunisation par des recombinant de L. lactis exprimant le ClfA, la FnbpA, ou le ClfA ensemble avec et une forme tronquée de la FnbpA (Fnbp, comprenant seulement le domaine de liaison à la fibronectine mais sans le domaine A de liaison au fibrinogène [L. lactis ClfA/Fnbp]), dans la prophylaxie de PIE expérimentale à S. aureus. L. lactis ClfA a été utilisés comme agent d'immunisation contre la souche S. aureus Newman (qui a particularité de n'exprimer que le ClfA, mais pas la FnbpA). L. lactis ClfA, L. lactis FnbpA, et L. lactis ClfA/Fnbp, ont été utilisé comme agents d'immunisation contre une souche isolée d'une IE, S. aureus P8 (exprimant ClfA et FnbpA). L'immunisation avec L. lactis ClfA a généré des anticorps anti-ClfA fonctionnels, capables de bloquer la liaison de S. aureus Newman au fibrinogène in vitro et protéger 13/19 (69%) animaux d'une El due à S. aureus Newman (P < 0.05 comparée aux contrôles). L'immunisation avec L. lactis ClfA, L. lactis FnbpA, ou L. lactis ClfA/Fnbp, a généré des anticorps contre chacun de ces antigènes. Cependant, ils n'ont pas permis de bloquer l'adhésion de S. aureus P8 au fibrinogène et à la fibronectine in vitro. De plus, l'immunisation avec L. lactis ClfA ou L. lactis FnbpA s'est avérée inefficace in vivo (< 10% d'animaux protégés d'une El) et l'immunisation avec L. lactis ClfA/Fnbp a fourni une protection limitée de l'EI (8/23 animaux protégés; P < 0.05 comparée aux contrôles) après inoculation avec S. aureus P8. Dans l'ensemble, ces résultats indiquent que L. lactis est un système efficace pour la présentation d'antigènes in vivo et potentiellement utile pour la prévention de PEI à S. aureus. Cependant, le répertoire de protéines de surface de S. aureus capable d'évoquer une panoplie d'anticorps efficace reste à déterminer.. En résumé, notre étude a démontré expérimentalement, pour la première fois, qu'une bactériémie répétée de faible intensité, simulant la bactériémie ayant lieu, par exemple, lors des activités de la vie quotidienne, est induire un taux d'EI expérimentale similaire à celle induite par une bactériémie de haute intensité suite à une intervention médicale. Dans ce contexte, où l'utilisation d'antibiotiques est pas raisonnable, nous avons aussi montré que d'autres mesures prophylactiques, comme l'utilisation d'agents antiplaquettaires ou antithrombotiques, ou la vaccination utilisant L. lactis comme vecteur d'antigènes bactériens, sont des alternatives prometteuses qui méritent d'être étudiées plus avant. Thesis Summary Infective endocarditis (IE) is a life-threatening disease that should be prevented whenever possible. Over the last 50 years, guidelines for IE prophylaxis proposed the use of antibiotics in patients undergoing dental or medico-surgical procedures that might induce high, but transient bacteremia. However, recent epidemiological studies indicate that IE occurs independently of medico-surgical procedures and the fact that patients had taken antibiotic prophylaxis or not, i.e., by cumulative exposure to random low-grade bacteremia, associated with daily activities (e.g. tooth brushing) in the case of oral streptococci, or with a colonized site or infected device in the case of staphylococci. Accordingly, the most recent American and European guidelines for IE prophylaxis were revisited and updated to drastically restrain antibiotic use. Nevertheless, the relative risk of IE represented by such cumulative low-grade bacteremia had never been demonstrated experimentally. We developed a new model of experimental IE due to continuous inoculation of low-grade bacteremia, mimicking repeated low-grade bacteremia in humans, and compared the infectivity of Streptococcus gordonii and Staphylococcus aureus in this model to that in the model producing brief, high-level bacteremia. We demonstrated that, after injection of identical bacterial numbers, the rate of infected vegetations was similar in both types of challenge. These experimental results support the hypothesis that cumulative exposure to low-grade bacteremia, outside the context of procedure-related bacteremia, represents a genuine risk of IE, as suggested by human epidemiological studies. In addition, they validate the newer guidelines for IE prophylaxis, which drastic limit the procedures in which antibiotic prophylaxis is indicated. Nevertheless, these refreshed guidelines leave the vast majority (> 90%) of potential IE cases without alternative propositions of prevention, and novel strategies must be considered to propose effective alternative and "global" measures to prevent IE initiation. The more realistic experimental model of IE induced by low-grade bacteremia provides an accurate experimental setting to study new preventive measures applying to cumulative exposure to low bacterial numbers. Since in a context of spontaneous low-grade bacteremia antibiotics are unlikely to solve the problem of IE prevention, we addressed the role of antiplatelet and anticoagulant agents for the prophylaxis of experimental IE induced by S. gordonii and S. aureus. The logic of this approach was based on the fact that platelets are key players in vegetation formation and vegetation enlargement, and on the fact that bacteria capable of interacting with platelets are more prone to induce IE. Antiplatelet agents included the COX1 inhibitor aspirin, the inhibitor of the ADP receptor P2Y12 ticlopidine, and two inhibitors of the platelet fibrinogen receptor GPIIb/IIIa, eptifibatide and abciximab. Anticoagulants included the thrombin inhibitor dabigatran etexilate and the vitamin K antagonist acenocoumarol. Aspirin, ticlopidine or eptifibatide alone failed to prevent aortic infection (> 75% infected animals). In contrast, the combination of aspirin with ticlopidine, as well as abciximab, protected 45% to 88% of animals against IE due to S. gordonii and S. aureus. The antithrombin dabigatran etexilate protected 75% of rats against IE due to S. aureus, but failed (< 30% protection) against S. gordonii. Acenocoumarol had no effect against any bacteria. Overall, these results suggest a possible role for antiplatelet agents and dabigatran etexilate in the prophylaxis of IE in humans in a context of recurrent low- grade bacteremia. However, the potential beneficial effect of antiplatelet agents should be balanced against the risk of bleeding and the fact that platelets play an important role in the host defenses against intravascular infections. In addition, the potential dual benefit of dabigatran etexilate might be revisited in patients with prosthetic valves, who require life-long anticoagulation and in whom S. aureus IE is associated with high mortality rate. Because the antiplatelet and anticoagulant approach might be limited in the context of S. aureus bacteremia, other prophylactic strategies for the prevention of S. aureus IE, like vaccination with anti-adhesion proteins was tested. The S. aureus surface proteins fibrinogen-binding protein clumping-factor A (ClfA) and the fibronectin-binding protein A (FnbpA) are critical virulence factors for the initiation and development of IE. Thus, they represent key targets for vaccine development against this disease. Recently, numerous reports have described that the harmless bacteria Lactococcus lactis can be used as a bacterial vector for the efficient delivery of antigens in vivo, and that this approach is a promising vaccination strategy against bacterial infections. We therefore explored the immunization capacity of non- living recombinant L. lactis ClfA, L. lactis FnbpA, or L. lactis expressing ClfA together with Fnbp (a truncated form of FnbpA with only the fibronectin-binding domain but lacking the fibrinogen-binding domain A [L. lactis ClfA/Fnbp]), to protect against S. aureus experimental IE. L. lactis ClfA was used as immunization agent against the laboratory strain S. aureus Newman (expressing ClfA, but lacking FnbpA). L. lactis ClfA, L. lactis FnbpA, as well as L. lactis ClfA/Fnbp, were used as immunization agents against the endocarditis isolate S. aureus P8 (expressing both ClfA and FnbpA). Immunization with L. lactis ClfA produced anti-ClfA functional antibodies, which were able to block the binding of S. aureus Newman to fibrinogen in vitro and protect 13/19 (69%) animals from IE due to S. aureus Newman (P < 0.05 compared to controls). Immunization with L. lactis ClfA, L. lactis FnbpA or L. lactis ClfA/Fnbp, produced antibodies against each antigen. However, they were not sufficient to block S. aureus P8 binding to fibrinogen and fibronectin in vitro. Moreover, immunization with L. lactis ClfA or L. lactis FnbpA was ineffective (< 10% protected animals) and immunization with L. lactis ClfA/Fnbp conferred limited protection from IE (8/23 protected animals; P < 0.05 compared to controls) after challenge with S. aureus P8. Together, these results indicate that L. lactis is an efficient delivering antigen system potentially useful for preventing S. aureus IE. They also demonstrate that expressing multiple antigens in L. lactis, yet to be elucidated, will be necessary to prevent IE due to clinical S. aureus strains fully equipped with virulence determinants. In summary, our study has demonstrated experimentally, for the first time, the hypothesis that low-grade bacteremia, mimicking bacteremia occurring outside of a clinical intervention, is equally prone to induce experimental IE as high-grade bacteremia following medico-surgical procedures. In this context, where the use of antibiotics for the prophylaxis of IE is limited, we showed that other prophylactic measures, like the use of antiplatelets, anticoagulants, or vaccination employing L. lactis as delivery vector of bacterial antigens, are reasonable alternatives that warrant to be further investigated.

Identification of potential rockfall source areas at a regional scale using a DEM-based geomorphometric analysis

The availability of high resolution Digital Elevation Models (DEM) at a regional scale enables the analysis of topography with high levels of detail. Hence, a DEM-based geomorphometric approach becomes more accurate for detecting potential rockfall sources. Potential rockfall source areas are identified according to the slope angle distribution deduced from high resolution DEM crossed with other information extracted from geological and topographic maps in GIS format. The slope angle distribution can be decomposed in several Gaussian distributions that can be considered as characteristic of morphological units: rock cliffs, steep slopes, footslopes and plains. A terrain is considered as potential rockfall sources when their slope angles lie over an angle threshold, which is defined where the Gaussian distribution of the morphological unit "Rock cliffs" become dominant over the one of "Steep slopes". In addition to this analysis, the cliff outcrops indicated by the topographic maps were added. They contain however "flat areas", so that only the slope angles values above the mode of the Gaussian distribution of the morphological unit "Steep slopes" were considered. An application of this method is presented over the entire Canton of Vaud (3200 km2), Switzerland. The results were compared with rockfall sources observed on the field and orthophotos analysis in order to validate the method. Finally, the influence of the cell size of the DEM is inspected by applying the methodology over six different DEM resolutions.

Robust fault detection using consistency techniques for uncertainty handling

Often practical performance of analytical redundancy for fault detection and diagnosis is decreased by uncertainties prevailing not only in the system model, but also in the measurements. In this paper, the problem of fault detection is stated as a constraint satisfaction problem over continuous domains with a big number of variables and constraints. This problem can be solved using modal interval analysis and consistency techniques. Consistency techniques are then shown to be particularly efficient to check the consistency of the analytical redundancy relations (ARRs), dealing with uncertain measurements and parameters. Through the work presented in this paper, it can be observed that consistency techniques can be used to increase the performance of a robust fault detection tool, which is based on interval arithmetic. The proposed method is illustrated using a nonlinear dynamic model of a hydraulic system