The existence and source of stock return predictability : Evidence from dividend, output and consumption ratios

Date of Acceptance: 13/03/2015

The existence and source of stock return predictability : Evidence from dividend, output and consumption ratios

Date of Acceptance: 13/03/2015

Comparison of output-only methods for modal identification of a twelve-span viaduct

Peer reviewed

Limits to sustained energy intake XXV : milk energy output and thermogenesis in Swiss mice lactating at thermoneutrality

Acknowledgements We are grateful to Ke-Xin Chen, Song Tan and Jing Cao (Wenzhou University) for care of the animals. We thank Dr. Teresa G. Valencak (Research Institute of Wildlife Ecology, University of Veterinary Medicine Vienna, Austria) for her assistance with the body temperature measurements using the thermo-sensitive passive transponders. We thank Peter Thomson (University of Aberdeen) for his technical assistance with the isotope analysis for the DLW measurements. This work was supported by grant (no. 31270458) from the National Natural Science Foundation of China, grant (pd2013374) from Zhejiang province, and grants (no. 14SK51A, 14SK52A) from Wenzhou University.

Single polarisation output of erbium-doped fibre ring laser utilising a small tilted fibre grating structure

Single polarisation operation of a fibre ring laser was realised by employing an intra-cavity 9.3°-tilted fibre Bragg grating as an in-fibre polariser. The laser showed a polarisationextinction-ratio of ~ 31dB with a good stability. © 2010 Optical Society of America.

A prospective comparison of a noninvasive cardiac output monitor versus esophageal doppler monitor for goal-directed fluid therapy in colorectal surgery patients

Copyright © 2014 International Anesthesia Research Society.BACKGROUND: Goal-directed fluid therapy (GDFT) is associated with improved outcomes after surgery. The esophageal Doppler monitor (EDM) is widely used, but has several limitations. The NICOM, a completely noninvasive cardiac output monitor (Cheetah Medical), may be appropriate for guiding GDFT. No prospective studies have compared the NICOM and the EDM. We hypothesized that the NICOM is not significantly different from the EDM for monitoring during GDFT. METHODS: One hundred adult patients undergoing elective colorectal surgery participated in this study. Patients in phase I (n = 50) had intraoperative GDFT guided by the EDM while the NICOM was connected, and patients in phase II (n = 50) had intraoperative GDFT guided by the NICOM while the EDM was connected. Each patient's stroke volume was optimized using 250- mL colloid boluses. Agreement between the monitors was assessed, and patient outcomes (postoperative pain, nausea, and return of bowel function), complications (renal, pulmonary, infectious, and wound complications), and length of hospital stay (LOS) were compared. RESULTS: Using a 10% increase in stroke volume after fluid challenge, agreement between monitors was 60% at 5 minutes, 61% at 10 minutes, and 66% at 15 minutes, with no significant systematic disagreement (McNemar P > 0.05) at any time point. The EDM had significantly more missing data than the NICOM. No clinically significant differences were found in total LOS or other outcomes. The mean LOS was 6.56 ± 4.32 days in phase I and 6.07 ± 2.85 days in phase II, and 95% confidence limits for the difference were -0.96 to +1.95 days (P = 0.5016). CONCLUSIONS: The NICOM performs similarly to the EDM in guiding GDFT, with no clinically significant differences in outcomes, and offers increased ease of use as well as fewer missing data points. The NICOM may be a viable alternative monitor to guide GDFT.

A Delay Vector Variance based marker for an output-only assessment of structural changes in tension leg platforms

Although aspects of power generation of many offshore renewable devices are well understood, their dynamic responses under high wind and wave conditions are still to be investigated to a great detail. Output only statistical markers are important for these offshore devices, since access to the device is limited and information about the exposure conditions and the true behaviour of the devices are generally partial, limited, and vague or even absent. The markers can summarise and characterise the behaviour of these devices from their dynamic response available as time series data. The behaviour may be linear or nonlinear and consequently a marker that can track the changes in structural situations can be quite important. These markers can then be helpful in assessing the current condition of the structure and can indicate possible intervention, monitoring or assessment. This paper considers a Delay Vector Variance based marker for changes in a tension leg platform tested in an ocean wave basin for structural changes brought about by single column dampers. The approach is based on dynamic outputs of the device alone and is based on the estimation of the nonlinearity of the output signal. The advantages of the selected marker and its response with changing structural properties are discussed. The marker is observed to be important for monitoring the as- deployed structural condition and is sensitive to changes in such conditions. Influence of exposure conditions of wave loading is also discussed in this study based only on experimental data.

Robust Uncertainty Quantification and Scalable Computation for Computer Models with Massive Output

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is both an old and new concept. The current novelty lies in the interactions and synthesis of mathematical models, computer experiments, statistics, field/real experiments, and probability theory, with a particular emphasize on the large-scale simulations by computer models. The challenges not only come from the complication of scientific questions, but also from the size of the information. It is the focus in this thesis to provide statistical models that are scalable to massive data produced in computer experiments and real experiments, through fast and robust statistical inference.

Chapter 2 provides a practical approach for simultaneously emulating/approximating massive number of functions, with the application on hazard quantification of Soufri\`{e}re Hills volcano in Montserrate island. Chapter 3 discusses another problem with massive data, in which the number of observations of a function is large. An exact algorithm that is linear in time is developed for the problem of interpolation of Methylation levels. Chapter 4 and Chapter 5 are both about the robust inference of the models. Chapter 4 provides a new criteria robustness parameter estimation criteria and several ways of inference have been shown to satisfy such criteria. Chapter 5 develops a new prior that satisfies some more criteria and is thus proposed to use in practice.

Three Essays on the Economics of Defense Contracting, Output and Income Inequality

This dissertation analyzes both the economics of the defense contracting process and the impact of total dollar obligations on the economies of U.S. states. Using various econometric techniques, I will estimate relationships across individual contracts, state level output, and income inequality. I will achieve this primarily through the use of a dataset on individual contract obligations. The first essay will catalog the distribution of contracts and isolate aspects of the process that contribute to contract dollar obligations. Accordingly, this study describes several characteristics about individual defense contracts, from 1966-2006: (i) the distribution of contract dollar obligations is extremely rightward skewed, (ii) contracts are unevenly distributed in a geographic sense across the United States, (iii) increased duration of a contract by 10 percent is associated with an increase in costs by 4 percent, (iv) competition does not seem to affect dollar obligations in a substantial way, (v) contract pre-payment financing increases the obligation of contracts from anywhere from 62 to 380 percent over non-financed contracts. The second essay will turn to an aggregate focus, and look the impact of defense spending on state economic output. The analysis in chapter two attempts to estimate the state level fiscal multiplier, deploying Difference-in-Differences estimation as an attempt to filter out potential endogeneity bias. Interstate variation in procurement spending facilitates utilization of a natural experiment scenario, focusing on the spike in relative spending in 1982. The state level relative multiplier estimate here is 1.19, and captures the short run, impact effect of the 1982 spending spike. Finally I will look at the relationship between defense contracting and income inequality. Military spending has typically been observed to have a negative relationship with income inequality. The third chapter examines the existence of this relationship, combining data on defense procurement with data on income inequality at the state level, in a longitudinal analysis across the United States. While the estimates do not suggest a significant relationship exists for the income share of the top ten percent of households, there is a significant positive relationship for the income share of top one percent households for an increase in defense procurement.

Model simulation output data (CCSM3) related to uplift of Africa and Himalaya/Tibet Plateau and the influence on tropical African vegetation

Hominid evolution in the late Miocene has long been hypothesized to be linked to the retreat of the tropical rainforest in Africa. One cause for the climatic and vegetation change often considered was uplift of Africa, but also uplift of the Himalaya and the Tibetan Plateau was suggested to have impacted rainfall distribution over Africa. Recent proxy data suggest that in East Africa open grassland habitats were available to the common ancestors of hominins and apes long before their divergence and do not find evidence for a closed rainforest in the late Miocene. We used the coupled global general circulation model CCSM3 including an interactively coupled dynamic vegetation module to investigate the impact of topography on African hydro-climate and vegetation. We performed sensitivity experiments altering elevations of the Himalaya and the Tibetan Plateau as well as of East and Southern Africa. The simulations confirm the dominant impact of African topography for climate and vegetation development of the African tropics. Only a weak influence of prescribed Asian uplift on African climate could be detected. The model simulations show that rainforest coverage of Central Africa is strongly determined by the presence of elevated African topography. In East Africa, despite wetter conditions with lowered African topography, the conditions were not favorable enough to maintain a closed rainforest. A discussion of the results with respect to other model studies indicates a minor importance of vegetation-atmosphere or ocean-atmosphere feedbacks and a large dependence of the simulated vegetation response on the land surface/vegetation model.

A Decade-Bandwidth Low-Noise Mixer RFIC with a Distortion-Canceling Output Amplifier

This paper presents a 1-10 GHz low-noise downconvert mixer RFIC suitable for wideband receivers. A switched transconductor mixing core is adopted to reduce noise at high frequencies. By adding a series inductor to the RF transconductor, a flat 4-5 dB noise figure (NF) and a high gain of 26.5 dB can be achieved over a broad bandwidth out to 10 GHz. A CMOS output amplifier is also integrated on-chip, employing derivative superposition (DS) for high linearity and an OIP3 of 16.5 dBm. The circuit consumes less than 20 mW of dc power and occupies an active chip area of less than 0.2 mm2.

Binary Mixtures of 1-Butyl-1-Methylpyrrolidinium Bis{(trifluoromethyl)Sulfonyl}Imide and Aliphatic Nitrile Solvents As Electrolyte for Electrochemical Double Layer Capacitors (Invited).

Electrochemical double layer capacitors (EDLCs), also known as supercapacitors, are promising energy storage devices, especially when considering high power applications [1]. EDLCs can be charged and discharged within seconds [1], feature high power (10 kW·kg-1) and an excellent cycle life (>500,000 cycles). All these properties are a result of the energy storage process of EDLCs, which relies on storing energy by charge separation instead of chemical redox reactions, as utilized in battery systems. Upon charging, double layers are forming at the electrode/electrolyte interface consisting of the electrolyte’s ions and electric charges at the electrode surface.In state-of-the-art EDLC systems activated carbons (AC) are used as active materials and tetraethylammonium tetrafluoroborate ([Et4N][BF4]) dissolved in organic solvents like propylene carbonate (PC) or acetonitrile (ACN) are commonly used as the electrolyte [2]. These combinations of materials allow operative voltages up to 2.7 V - 2.8 V and an energy in the order of 5 Wh·kg-1[3]. The energy of EDLCs is dependent on the square of the operative voltage, thus increasing the usable operative voltage has a strong effect on the delivered energy of the device [1]. Due to their high electrochemical stability, ionic liquids (ILs) were thoroughly investigated as electrolytes for EDLCs, as well as, batteries, enabling high operating voltages as high as 3.2 V - 3.5 V for the former [2]. While their unique ionic structure allows the usage of neat ILs as electrolyte in EDLCs, ILs suffer from low conductivity and high viscosity increasing the intrinsic resistance and, as a result, a lower power output of the device. In order to overcome this issue, the usage of blends of ionic liquids and organic solvents has been considered a feasible strategy as they combine high usable voltages, while still retaining good transport properties at the same time.In our recent work the ionic liquid 1-butyl-1-methylpyrrolidinium bis{(trifluoromethyl)sulfonyl}imide ([Pyrr14][TFSI]) was combined with two nitrile-based organic solvents, namely butyronitrile (BTN) and adiponitrile (ADN), and the resulting blends were investing regarding their usage in electrochemical double layer capacitors [4,5]. Firstly, the physicochemical properties were investigated, showing good transport properties for both blends, which are similar to the state-of-the-art combination of [Et4N][BF4] in PC. Secondly, the electrochemical properties for EDLC application were studied in depth revealing a high electrochemical stability with a maximum operative voltage as high as 3.7 V. In full cells these high voltage organic solvent based electrolytes have a good performance in terms of capacitance and an acceptable equivalent series resistance at cut-off voltages of 3.2 and 3.5 V. However, long term stability tests by float testing revealed stability issues when using a maximum voltage of 3.5 V for prolonged time, whereas at 3.2 V no such issues are observed (Fig. 1).Considering the obtained results, the usage of ADN and BTN blends with [Pyrr14][TFSI] in EDLCs appears to be an interesting alternative to state-of-the-art organic solvent based electrolytes, allowing the usage of higher maximum operative voltages while having similar transport properties to 1 mol∙dm-3 [Et4N][BF4] in PC at the same time.

A III-V channel field effect transistor for non-classical CMOS: process optimisation for improved gate stack function

This thesis describes a collection of studies into the electrical response of a III-V MOS stack comprising metal/GaGdO/GaAs layers as a function of fabrication process variables and the findings of those studies. As a result of this work, areas of improvement in the gate process module of a III-V heterostructure MOSFET were identified. Compared to traditional bulk silicon MOSFET design, one featuring a III-V channel heterostructure with a high-dielectric-constant oxide as the gate insulator provides numerous benefits, for example: the insulator can be made thicker for the same capacitance, the operating voltage can be made lower for the same current output, and improved output characteristics can be achieved without reducing the channel length further. It is known that transistors composed of III-V materials are most susceptible to damage induced by radiation and plasma processing. These devices utilise sub-10 nm gate dielectric films, which are prone to contamination, degradation and damage. Therefore, throughout the course of this work, process damage and contamination issues, as well as various techniques to mitigate or prevent those have been investigated through comparative studies of III-V MOS capacitors and transistors comprising various forms of metal gates, various thicknesses of GaGdO dielectric, and a number of GaAs-based semiconductor layer structures. Transistors which were fabricated before this work commenced, showed problems with threshold voltage control. Specifically, MOSFETs designed for normally-off (VTH > 0) operation exhibited below-zero threshold voltages. With the results obtained during this work, it was possible to gain an understanding of why the transistor threshold voltage shifts as the gate length decreases and of what pulls the threshold voltage downwards preventing normally-off device operation. Two main culprits for the negative VTH shift were found. The first was radiation damage induced by the gate metal deposition process, which can be prevented by slowing down the deposition rate. The second was the layer of gold added on top of platinum in the gate metal stack which reduces the effective work function of the whole gate due to its electronegativity properties. Since the device was designed for a platinum-only gate, this could explain the below zero VTH. This could be prevented either by using a platinum-only gate, or by matching the layer structure design and the actual gate metal used for the future devices. Post-metallisation thermal anneal was shown to mitigate both these effects. However, if post-metallisation annealing is used, care should be taken to ensure it is performed before the ohmic contacts are formed as the thermal treatment was shown to degrade the source/drain contacts. In addition, the programme of studies this thesis describes, also found that if the gate contact is deposited before the source/drain contacts, it causes a shift in threshold voltage towards negative values as the gate length decreases, because the ohmic contact anneal process affects the properties of the underlying material differently depending on whether it is covered with the gate metal or not. In terms of surface contamination; this work found that it causes device-to-device parameter variation, and a plasma clean is therefore essential. This work also demonstrated that the parasitic capacitances in the system, namely the contact periphery dependent gate-ohmic capacitance, plays a significant role in the total gate capacitance. This is true to such an extent that reducing the distance between the gate and the source/drain ohmic contacts in the device would help with shifting the threshold voltages closely towards the designed values. The findings made available by the collection of experiments performed for this work have two major applications. Firstly, these findings provide useful data in the study of the possible phenomena taking place inside the metal/GaGdO/GaAs layers and interfaces as the result of chemical processes applied to it. In addition, these findings allow recommendations as to how to best approach fabrication of devices utilising these layers.