Open Sea

Combined media on paper. 42" x 87"

Frames and games

Decision-makers are sometimes influenced by the way in which choice situations are presented to them or "framed" This can be seen as an important challenge to the social sciences, since strong and pervasive framing effects would make it difficult to study human behavior in a synthetic or theoretic manner. We present results from experiments with dilemma games designed to shed light on the effects of several frame variations. We study, among others, the particular public bad frame used by Andreoni (1995) and two more naturalistic frames involving stories. Our results show that none of the frame manipulations have a significant effect on average behavior, but we do find some effects on extreme behavior. We also find that incentives do matter where frames do not matter.

Learning from Shocks and the Decision to Open

Two claims pervade the literature on the political economy of market reforms: that economic crises cause reforms; and that crises matter because they bring into question the validity of the economic model held to be responsible for them. Economic crises are said to spur a process of learning that is conducive to the abandonment of failing models and to the adoption of successful models. But although these claims have become the conventional wisdom, they have been hardly tested empirically due to the lack of agreement on what constitutes a crisis and to difficulties in measuring learning from them. I propose a model of rational learning from experience and apply it to the decision to open the economy. Using data from 1964 through 1990, I show that learning from the 1982 debt crisis was relevant to the first wave of adoption of an export promotion strategy, but learning was conditional on the high variability of economic outcomes in countries that opened up to trade. Learning was also symbolic in that the sheer number of other countries that liberalized was a more important driver of others’ decisions to follow suit.

Applying RADIC in Open MPI: the methodology used to implement RADIC over a Message Passing Library

Fault tolerance has become a major issue for computer and software engineers because the occurrence of faults increases the cost of using a parallel computer. RADIC is the fault tolerance architecture for message passing systems which is transparent, decentralized, flexible and scalable. This master thesis presents the methodology used to implement the RADIC architecture over Open MPI, a well-know large-used message passing library. This implementation kept the RADIC architecture characteristics. In order to validate the implementation we have executed a synthetic ping program, besides, to evaluate the implementation performance we have used the NAS Parallel Benchmarks. The results prove that the RADIC architecture performance depends on the communication pattern of the parallel application which is running. Furthermore, our implementation proves that the RADIC architecture could be implemented over an existent message passing library.

Radiologists' vs. surgeons' reading performance in non traumatic acute abdomen CTs : P32

Purpose: Emergency room reading performances have been a point of interest in recent studies comparing radiologists to other physician groups. Our objective was to evaluate and compare the reading performances of radiologists and surgeons in an emergency room setting of non-traumatic abdominal CTs. Methods and materials: A total of ten readers representing four groups participated in this study: three senior radiologists and visceral surgeons, respectively, and two junior radiologists and surgeons, respectively. Each observer blindedly evaluated a total of 150 multi-slice acute abdominal CTs. CTs were chosen representing established proportions of acute abdomen pathologies in a Level I trauma centre from 2003 to 2005. Each answer was interpretated as right or wrong regarding pathology location, diagnosis and need for operation. Gold standard was the intraoperative result, and the clinical patient follow-up for non-operated patients. Significance was assumed at a p <.05 level. Results: Senior radiologists had a mean score of 2.38 ± 1.14, junior radiologists a score of 2.34 ± 1.14, whereas senior surgeons scored 2.07 ± 1.30 and junior surgeons 1.62 ± 1.42. No significant difference was found between the two radiologist groups, but results were significantly better for senior surgeons as compared to junior surgeons and better for the two radiologist groups as compared to each of the surgeon groups (all p <.05). Conclusion: Abdominal CT reading in an acute abdomen setting should continue to rely on an evaluation by a radiologist, whether senior or junior. Satisfying reading results can be achieved by senior visceral surgeons, but junior surgeons need more experience for a good reading performance.

Modelling of bird distribution under complex mediterranean landscape dynamics: open habitat birds and fire (MEDFIRE)

Report for the scientific sojourn at the Simon Fraser University, Canada, from July to September 2007. General context: landscape change during the last years is having significant impacts on biodiversity in many Mediterranean areas. Land abandonment, urbanisation and specially fire are profoundly transforming large areas in the Western Mediterranean basin and we know little on how these changes influence species distribution and in particular how these species will respond to further change in a context of global change including climate. General objectives: integrate landscape and population dynamics models in a platform allowing capturing species distribution responses to landscape changes and assessing impact on species distribution of different scenarios of further change. Specific objective 1: develop a landscape dynamic model capturing fire and forest succession dynamics in Catalonia and linked to a stochastic landscape occupancy (SLOM) (or spatially explicit population, SEPM) model for the Ortolan bunting, a species strongly linked to fire related habitat in the region. Predictions from the occupancy or spatially explicit population Ortolan bunting model (SEPM) should be evaluated using data from the DINDIS database. This database tracks bird colonisation of recently burnt big areas (&50 ha). Through a number of different SEPM scenarios with different values for a number of parameter, we should be able to assess different hypothesis in factors driving bird colonisation in new burnt patches. These factors to be mainly, landscape context (i.e. difficulty to reach the patch, and potential presence of coloniser sources), dispersal constraints, type of regenerating vegetation after fire, and species characteristics (niche breadth, etc).

Productivity, Preferences and UIP deviations in an Open Economy Business Cycle Model

We show that a flex-price two-sector open economy DSGE model can explain the poor degree of international risk sharing and exchange rate disconnect. We use a suite of model evaluation measures and examine the role of (i) traded and non-traded sectors; (ii) financial market incompleteness; (iii) preference shocks; (iv) deviations from UIP condition for the exchange rates; and (v) creditor status in net foreign assets. We find that there is a good case for both traded and non-traded productivity shocks as well as UIP deviations in explaining the puzzles.

The Timing of Asset Trade and Optimal Policy in Dynamic Open Economies

Using a standard open economy DSGE model, it is shown that the timing of asset trade relative to policy decisions has a potentially important impact on the welfare evaluation of monetary policy at the individual country level. If asset trade in the initial period takes place before the announcement of policy, a national policymaker can choose a policy rule which reduces the work effort of households in the policymaker’s country in the knowledge that consumption is fully insured by optimally chosen international portfolio positions. But if asset trade takes place after the policy announcement, this insurance is absent and households in the policymaker’s country bear the full consumption consequences of the chosen policy rule. The welfare incentives faced by national policymakers are very different between the two cases. Numerical examples confirm that asset market timing has a significant impact on the optimal policy rule.