Predicting the onset of psychosis in patients at clinical high risk: practical guide to probabilistic prognostic reasoning

Prediction of psychosis in patients at clinical high risk (CHR) has become a mainstream focus of clinical and research interest worldwide. When using CHR instruments for clinical purposes, the predicted outcome is but only a probability; and, consequently, any therapeutic action following the assessment is based on probabilistic prognostic reasoning. Yet, probabilistic reasoning makes considerable demands on the clinicians. We provide here a scholarly practical guide summarising the key concepts to support clinicians with probabilistic prognostic reasoning in the CHR state. We review risk or cumulative incidence of psychosis in, person-time rate of psychosis, Kaplan-Meier estimates of psychosis risk, measures of prognostic accuracy, sensitivity and specificity in receiver operator characteristic curves, positive and negative predictive values, Bayes’ theorem, likelihood ratios, potentials and limits of real-life applications of prognostic probabilistic reasoning in the CHR state. Understanding basic measures used for prognostic probabilistic reasoning is a prerequisite for successfully implementing the early detection and prevention of psychosis in clinical practice. Future refinement of these measures for CHR patients may actually influence risk management, especially as regards initiating or withholding treatment.

Cessation of facial growth in subjects with short, average, and long facial types - Implications for the timing of implant placement

Placement of a single-tooth implant should be performed when a patient's facial growth has ceased. In this retrospective observational study, we evaluated if there was a difference in the timing of cessation of craniofacial growth in short, average, and long facial types. Based on the value of the angle between cranial base and mandibular plane (SN/MP angle), three groups comprising 48 subjects with short facial type (SF; SN/MP ≤28°), 77 with average facial type (AF; SN/MP ≥31.5° and ≤34.5°), and 44 with long facial type (LF; SN/MP ≥38°) were selected. Facial growth was assessed on lateral cephalograms taken at 15.4 years of age, and 2, 5, and 10 years later. Variables were considered to be stable when the difference between two successive measurements was less than 1 mm or 1°. We found no difference between facial types in the timing of cessation of facial growth. Depending on the variable, the mean age when variables became stable ranged from 18.0 years (Is-Pal in LF group) to 22.0 years (SN/MP in LF group). However, facial growth continued at the last follow-up in approximately 20% subjects. This study demonstrates that facial type is not associated with the timing of cessation of facial growth.

The timing of extraction of non-restorable first permanent molars: a systematic review.

AIM To identify the ideal timing of first permanent molar extraction to reduce the future need for orthodontic treatment. MATERIALS AND METHODS A computerised database and subsequent manual search was performed using Medline database, Embase and Ovid, covering the period from January 1946 to February 2013. Two reviewers (JE and ME) extracted the data independently and evaluated if the studies matched the inclusion criteria. Inclusion criteria were specification of the follow-up with clinical examination or analysis of models, specification of the chronological age or dental developmental stage at the time of extraction, no treatment in between, classification of the treatment result into perfect, good, average and poor. The search was limited to human studies and no language limitations were set. RESULTS The search strategy resulted in 18 full-text articles, of which 6 met the inclusion criteria. By pooling the data from maxillary sites, good to perfect clinical outcome was estimated in 72% (95% confidence interval 63%-82%). Extractions at the age of 8-10.5 years tended to show better spontaneous clinical outcomes compared to the other age groups. By pooling the data from mandibular sites, extractions performed at the age of 8-10.5 and 10.5-11.5 years showed significantly superior spontaneous clinical outcome with a probability of 50% and 59% likelihood, respectively, to achieve good to perfect clinical result (p<0.05) compared to the other age groups (<8 years of age: 34%, >11.5 years of age: 44%). CONCLUSION Prevention of complications after first permanent molars extractions is an important issue. The overall success rate of spontaneous clinical outcome for maxillary extraction of first permanent molars was superior to mandibular extraction. Extractions of mandibular first permanent molars should be performed between 8 and 11.5 years of age in order to achieve a good spontaneous clinical outcome. For the extraction in the maxilla, no firm conclusions concerning the ideal extraction timing could be drawn.

Incremental value of heart-type fatty acid-binding protein in suspected acute myocardial infarction early after symptom onset.

BACKGROUND The early diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) very soon after symptom onset remains a major clinical challenge, even when using high-sensitivity cardiac troponin (hs-cTnT). METHODS AND RESULTS We investigated the incremental value of heart-type fatty acid-binding protein (hFABP) in a pre-specified subgroup analysis of patients presenting with suspected AMI within 1 h of symptom onset to the emergency department (ED) in a multicentre study. HFABP was measured in a blinded fashion. Two independent cardiologists using all available clinical information, including hs-cTnT, adjudicated the final diagnosis. Overall, 1411 patients were enrolled, of whom 105 patients presented within 1 h of symptom onset. Of these, 34 patients (32.4%) had AMI. The diagnostic accuracy as quantified by the area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve (AUC) of hFABP was high (0.84 (95% CI 0.74-0.94)). However, the additional use of hFABP only marginally increased the diagnostic accuracy of hs-cTnT (AUC 0.88 (95% CI 0.81-0.94) for hs-cTnT alone to 0.90 (95% CI 0.83-0.98) for the combination; p=ns). After the exclusion of 18 AMI patients with ST-segment elevation, similar results were obtained. Among the 16 AMI patients without ST-segment elevation, six had normal hs-cTnT at presentation. Of these, hFABP was elevated in two (33.3%) patients. CONCLUSIONS hFABP does not seem to significantly improve the early diagnostic accuracy of hs-cTnT in the important subgroup of patients with suspected AMI presenting to the ED very early after symptom onset.

Timing of extreme drought modifies reproductive output in semi-natural grassland

Questions Do extreme dry spells in late summer or in spring affect abundance and species composition of the reproductive shoots and the seed rain in the next annual crop? Are drought effects on reproductive shoots related to the rooting depths of species? Location Species-rich semi-natural grassland at Negrentino, Switzerland. Methods In plots under automated rain-out shelters, rainwater was added to simulate normal conditions and compare them with two experimentally effected long dry spells, in late summer (2004) and in the following spring (2005). For 28 plots, numbers of reproductive shoots per species were counted in 1-m2 areas and seed rain was estimated using nine sticky traps of 102 cm2 after dry spells. Results The two extreme dry spells in late summer and spring were similar in length and their probability of recurrence. They independently reduced the subsequent reproductive output of the community, while their seasonal timing modified its species composition. Compared to drought in spring, drought in late summer reduced soil moisture more and reduced the number of reproductive shoots of more species. The negative effects of summer drought decreased with species’ rooting depth. The shallow-rooted graminoids showed a consistent susceptibility to summer drought, while legumes and other forbs showed more varied responses to both droughts. Spring drought strongly reduced density (–53%) and species richness (–43%) of the community seed rain, while summer drought had only a marginally significant impact on seed density of graminoids (–44%). Reductions in seed number per shoot vs reproductive shoot density distinguished the impacts of drought with respect to its seasonal timing. Conclusion The essentially negative impact of drought in different seasons on reproductive output suggests that more frequent dry spells could contribute to local plant diversity loss by aggravating seed deficiency in species-rich grassland.

Variation in Current Management of Term and Late-Preterm Neonates at Risk for Early-Onset Sepsis "An International Survey and Review of Guidelines"

BACKGROUND Uncertainty about the presence of infection results in unnecessary and prolonged empiric antibiotic treatment of newborns at risk for early-onset sepsis (EOS). This study evaluates the impact of this uncertainty on the diversity in management. METHODS A web-based survey with questions addressing management of infection risk-adjusted scenarios was performed in Europe, North America, and Australia. Published national guidelines (n=5) were reviewed and compared to the results of the survey. RESULTS 439 Clinicians (68% were neonatologists) from 16 countries completed the survey. In the low-risk scenario, 29% would start antibiotic therapy and 26% would not, both groups without laboratory investigations; 45% would start if laboratory markers were abnormal. In the high-risk scenario, 99% would start antibiotic therapy. In the low-risk scenario, 89% would discontinue antibiotic therapy before 72 hours. In the high-risk scenario, 35% would discontinue therapy before 72 hours, 56% would continue therapy for five to seven days, and 9% for more than 7 days. Laboratory investigations were used in 31% of scenarios for the decision to start, and in 72% for the decision to discontinue antibiotic treatment. National guidelines differ considerably regarding the decision to start in low-risk and regarding the decision to continue therapy in higher risk situations. CONCLUSIONS There is a broad diversity of clinical practice in management of EOS and a lack of agreement between current guidelines. The results of the survey reflect the diversity of national guidelines. Prospective studies regarding management of neonates at risk of EOS with safety endpoints are needed.

The impact of ABCC11 polymorphisms on the risk of early-onset fluoropyrimidine toxicity

A missense variant (c.1637C>T, T546M) in ABCC11 encoding the MRP8 (multidrug resistance protein 8), a transporter of 5-fluorodeoxyuridine monophosphate, has been associated with an increased risk of 5-fluorouracil-related severe leukopenia. To validate this association, we investigated the impact of the ABCC11 variants c.1637C>T, c.538G>A and c.395+1087C>T on the risk of early-onset fluoropyrimidine-related toxicity in 514 cancer patients. The ABCC11 variant c.1637C>T was strongly associated with severe leukopenia in patients carrying risk variants in DPYD, encoding the key fluoropyrimidine-metabolizing enzyme dihydropyrimidine dehydrogenase (odds ratio (OR): 71.0; 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.5-2004.8; Pc.1637C>T*DPYD=0.013). In contrast, in patients without DPYD risk variants, no association with leukopenia (OR: 0.95; 95% CI: 0.34-2.6) or overall fluoropyrimidine-related toxicity (OR: 1.02; 95% CI: 0.5-2.1) was observed. Our study thus suggests that c.1637C>T affects fluoropyrimidine toxicity to leukocytes particularly in patients with high drug exposure, for example, because of reduced fluoropyrimidine catabolism.

Learning in the cerebellar nucleus is necessary for acquisition of Pavlovian eyelid conditioning

The cumulative work presented here supports the hypothesis that plasticity in the cerebellar cortex and cerebellar nuclei mediates a simple associative form of motor teaming-Pavlovian eyelid conditioning. It was previously demonstrated that focal ablative lesions of cerebellar anterior lobe or pharmacological block of the cerebellar cortex output disrupted the timing of the conditioned eyeblink response, unmasking a response with a relatively fixed and very short latency to onset. The results of this thesis demonstrate that the short-latency responses are due to associative learning. Unpaired training does not support the acquisition of short-latency responses while the rate of acquisition of short-latency responses during paired training is approximately the same as that of timed conditioned responses. The acquisition of short-latency responses is dependent on an intact cerebellar cortex. Both ablative lesions of the cerebellar cortex and inactivation of cerebellar cortex output with picrotoxin block the acquisition of short-latency responses. However, once the short-latency responses are acquired neither disconnection of cerebellar cortex nor inactivation of the cerebellar nucleus block reacquisition. The results are consistent with the proposal that plasticity in the cerebellar cortex is necessary for learning the timing of conditioned responses, plasticity in the interpositus nucleus mediates the short latency responses, and cerebellar cortical output and mossy fiber input are necessary for the acquisition of short latency responses. ^

Predator-Induced Plasticity in Spotted Salamanders (Ambystoma maculatum)

The ability to respond plastically to the environment has allowed amphibians to evolve adaptive responses to spatial and temporal variation in predation threat. However, animals exposed to predators may also show costs of plasticity or tradeoffs. This study examines predator-induced plasticity in larval development, behavior, and metamorphosis in the spotted salamander, Ambystoma maculatum. Salamanders were raised in two treatments: with predator cues (a fish predator, genus Lepomis, on the other side of a divided tank), or without predator cues. During the larval stage the predator treatment group experienced higher mortality rates than the no-predator treatment group. Behavioral trials revealed that predator treatment animals ate less than those not exposed, and that this feeding response was immediately inducible and had lasting effects. Animals in the predator treatment group had smaller tail areas during the mid-larval period. Feeding and body size effects may have contributed to increased mortality in the predator-treatment animals. The timing of metamorphic onset was not affected by the presence of predators, but predator-treatment salamanders had shorter snout/vent lengths at metamorphosis. The duration of metamorphosis showed a potentially adaptive plastic response to the presence of predator cues: metamorphosis was longest in the no-predator treatment group, reduced in the predator treatment group, and even further reduced for animals exposed to predator cues only during metamorphosis. Overall, we found a mix of potentially adaptive and costly plastic responses in spotted salamanders.

A sex difference in seasonal timing of birth in a livebearing fish

Sex differences in seasonal timing include differences in hatch- or birth-date distribution and differences in the timing of migration or maturation such as protandrous arrival timing (PAT), which is early male arrival at breeding sites. I describe a novel form of protandrous arrival timing, as a sex difference in birth-date distribution in a live-bearing fish (Dwarf Perch, Micrometrus minimus). In this species, birth coincides with arrival at breeding sites because newborn males are sexually active. A series of samples of pregnant females and young of year was collected in Tomales Bay, CA. I analyzed the daily age record in otoliths to estimate the conception date of broods and the age that young-of-year individuals were born. Males were born at a younger age than females, as indicated by the daily age record and also by the predominance of females in broods from which some young had already been born, which was a common occurrence in pregnant females with older embryos. Sex ratio of broods varied with conception date such that early-season broods were predominantly male, possibly as a result of temperature-dependent sex determination. The combined effects of the sex difference in age at birth and seasonal shift in sex ratio were to shift the mean birth date of males relative to females by five days. The most likely ultimate explanation for PAT in the Dwarf Perch is that it arises from exploitation (scramble) competition for mating opportunities among recently-born young-of-year males.

The Geographic Distribution of the Size and Timing of Monetary Policy Actions

This paper examines the magnitude and timing of the effects of changes in the monetary base on the aggregate and regional changes in bank loans within the United States. We consider both Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) regions, and individual states and the District of Columbia for our regional analysis. The empirical analysis provides some insight on the bank-lending channel of monetary policy. We find strong evidence of a 4-quarter lag in the effect of changes in the monetary base on bank loans. That finding proves robust across all regions and nearly all states.

Fall Fertilization Timing Effects on Nitrate Leaching and Turfgrass Color and Growth

Fall season fertilization is a widely recommended practice for turfgrass. Fertilizer applied in the fall, however, may be subject to substantial leaching losses. A field study was conducted in Connecticut to determine the timing effects of fall fertilization on nitrate N (NO3-N) leaching, turf color, shoot density, and root mass of a 90% Kentucky bluegrass (Poa pratensis L.), 10% creeping red fescue (Festuca rubra L.) lawn. Treatments consisted of the date of fall fertilization: 15 September, 15 October, 15 November, 15 December, or control which received no fall fertilizer. Percolate water was collected weekly with soil monolith lysimeters. Mean log10 NO3-N concentrations in percolate were higher for fall fertilized treatments than for the control. Mean NO3-N mass collected in percolate water was linearly related to the date of fertilizer application, with higher NO3-N loss for later application dates. Applying fall fertilizer improved turf color and density but there were no differences in color or density among applications made between 15 October and 15 December. These findings suggest that the current recommendation of applying N in mid- to late November in southern New England may not be compatible with water quality goals.

Analysis of the LIFO inventory valuation method during the onset of IFRS

I propose that the Last in, First out (LIFO) inventory valuation method needs to be reevaluated. I will evaluate the impact of the LIFO method on earnings of publically traded companies with a LIFO reserve over the past 10 years. I will begin my proposal with the history of how the LIFO method became an acceptable valuation method and discuss the significance of LIFO within the accounting profession Next I will provide a description of LIFO, the First in, First out (FIFO), and the weighted average inventory valuation methods and explore the differences among each. More specifically, I will explore the arguments for and against the use of the LIFO method and the potential shift towards financial standards that do not allow LIFO (a standard adopted and influenced by the International Financial Accounting Standards Board). Data will be collected from Compustat for publicly traded companies (with a LIFO Reserve) for the past 10 years. I will document which firms use LIFO, analyze trends relating to LIFO usage and LIFO reserves (the difference in the cost of inventory between using LIFO and FIFO), and evaluate the effect on earnings. The purpose of this research is to evaluate the accuracy of LIFO in portraying earnings and to see how much tax has gone uncollected over the years because of the use of LIFO. Moreover, I will provide an opinion as to whether U.S. GAAP should adopt a standard similar to IFRS and ban the LIFO method.

Risk of adult-onset asthma in Mexican-American women employed in food preparation or food service

Existing literature examining the association between occupation and asthma has not been adequately powered to address this question in the food preparation or food service industries. Few studies have addressed the possible link between occupational exposure to cooking fumes and asthma. This secondary analysis of cohort study data aimed to investigate the association between adult-onset asthma and exposure to: (a) cooking fumes at work or (b) longest-held employment in food preparation or food service (e.g. waiters and waitresses, food preparation workers, non-restaurant food servers, etc.). Participants arose from a cohort of Mexican-American women residing in Houston, TX, recruited between July 2001 and June 2007. This analysis used Cox proportional-hazards regression to estimate the hazard ratio of adult-onset asthma given the exposures of interest, adjusting for age, BMI, smoking status, acculturation, and birthplace. We found a strong association between adult-onset asthma and occupational exposure to cooking fumes (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.77; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.15, 2.72), especially in participants whose longest-held occupation was not in the food-related industry (HR = 2.12; 95% CI, 1.21, 3.60). In conclusion, adult-onset asthma is a serious public health concern for food industry workers. ^