Beyond Panel Unit Root Tests: Using Multiple Testing to Determine the Non Stationarity Properties of Individual Series in a Panel

Most panel unit root tests are designed to test the joint null hypothesis of a unit root for each individual series in a panel. After a rejection, it will often be of interest to identify which series can be deemed to be stationary and which series can be deemed nonstationary. Researchers will sometimes carry out this classification on the basis of n individual (univariate) unit root tests based on some ad hoc significance level. In this paper, we demonstrate how to use the false discovery rate (FDR) in evaluating I(1)=I(0) classifications based on individual unit root tests when the size of the cross section (n) and time series (T) dimensions are large. We report results from a simulation experiment and illustrate the methods on two data sets.

Non-Invasive Prenatal Testing: Review of Ethical, Legal and Social Implications

Article

Active-control trials with binary data: a comparison of methods for testing superiority or non-inferiority using the odds ratio

This paper considers methods for testing for superiority or non-inferiority in active-control trials with binary data, when the relative treatment effect is expressed as an odds ratio. Three asymptotic tests for the log-odds ratio based on the unconditional binary likelihood are presented, namely the likelihood ratio, Wald and score tests. All three tests can be implemented straightforwardly in standard statistical software packages, as can the corresponding confidence intervals. Simulations indicate that the three alternatives are similar in terms of the Type I error, with values close to the nominal level. However, when the non-inferiority margin becomes large, the score test slightly exceeds the nominal level. In general, the highest power is obtained from the score test, although all three tests are similar and the observed differences in power are not of practical importance. Copyright (C) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Testing for non-stationarity and cointegration allowing for the possibility of a structural break: an application to EuroSterling interest rates

In this paper we examine the order of integration of EuroSterling interest rates by employing techniques that can allow for a structural break under the null and/or alternative hypothesis of the unit-root tests. In light of these results, we investigate the cointegrating relationship implied by the single, linear expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates employing two techniques, one of which allows for the possibility of a break in the mean of the cointegrating relationship. The aim of the paper is to investigate whether or not the interest rate series can be viewed as I(1) processes and furthermore, to consider whether there has been a structural break in the series. We also determine whether, if we allow for a break in the cointegration analysis, the results are consistent with those obtained when a break is not allowed for. The main results reported in this paper support the conjecture that the ‘short’ Euro-currency rates are characterised as I(1) series that exhibit a structural break on or near Black Wednesday, 16 September 1992, whereas the ‘long’ rates are I(1) series that do not support the presence of a structural break. The evidence from the cointegration analysis suggests that tests of the expectations hypothesis based on data sets that include the ERM crisis period, or a period that includes a structural break, might be problematic if the structural break is not explicitly taken into account in the testing framework.

Improving aircraft maintenance, repair, and overhaul: A novel text mining approach

Aircraft Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul (MRO) feedback commonly includes an engineer’s complex text-based inspection report. Capturing and normalizing the content of these textual descriptions is vital to cost and quality benchmarking, and provides information to facilitate continuous improvement of MRO process and analytics. As data analysis and mining tools requires highly normalized data, raw textual data is inadequate. This paper offers a textual-mining solution to efficiently analyse bulk textual feedback data. Despite replacement of the same parts and/or sub-parts, the actual service cost for the same repair is often distinctly different from similar previously jobs. Regular expression algorithms were incorporated with an aircraft MRO glossary dictionary in order to help provide additional information concerning the reason for cost variation. Professional terms and conventions were included within the dictionary to avoid ambiguity and improve the outcome of the result. Testing results show that most descriptive inspection reports can be appropriately interpreted, allowing extraction of highly normalized data. This additional normalized data strongly supports data analysis and data mining, whilst also increasing the accuracy of future quotation costing. This solution has been effectively used by a large aircraft MRO agency with positive results.

Non-concordance between genetic profiles of olive oil and fruit: a cautionary note to the use of DNA markers for provenance testing.

To investigate the contribution of paternal alleles to the DNA content of olive oil, genetic analyses of olive DNA samples from fruits, leaves, and oil derived from the same tree (cv. Leccino) were carried out. DNA extracted from maternal tissues--leaves and flesh--from different fruits showed identical genetic profiles using a set of DNA markers. Additional simple sequence repeat (SSR) alleles, not found in the maternal samples, were amplified in the embryos (stone), and they were also detected in DNA extracted from the paste obtained by crushing whole fruits and from the oil pressed from this material. These results demonstrate that the DNA profile obtained from olive oil is likely to represent a composite profile of the maternal alleles juxtaposed with alleles contributed by various pollen donors. Therefore, care needs to be taken in the interpretation of DNA profiles obtained from DNA extracted from oil for resolving provenance and authenticity issues.

Testing for non-linearity in daily sterling exchange rates

A number of tests for non-linear dependence in time series are presented and implemented on a set of 10 daily sterling exchange rates covering the entire post Bretton-Woods era until the present day. Irrefutable evidence of non-linearity is shown in many of the series, but most of this dependence can apparently be explained by reference to the GARCH family of models. It is suggested that the literature in this area has reached an impasse, with the presence of ARCH effects clearly demonstrated in a large number of papers, but with the tests for non-linearity which are currently available being unable to classify any additional non-linear structure.

Molecular analysis of the Von Hippel-Lindau (VHL) gene in a family with non-syndromic pheochromocytoma: the importance of genetic testing

Dois pacientes índices da família analisada neste estudo foram submetidos a adrenalectomia bilateral devido a feocromocitoma. Foi, então, realizado o estudo genético dos pacientes e de sete parentes de primeiro grau. Os dois pacientes com feocromocitoma e dois outros membros assintomáticos da família apresentaram a mutação c496G>T no exon 3 do gene VHL. A família perdeu seguimento médico. Três anos após a realização da avaliação genética, a irmã dos pacientes, portadora da mutação, foi encaminhada para o nosso serviço após uma gestação complicada por pré-eclampsia. Ela referia paroxismos sugestivos de feocromocitoma, mas as metanefrinas urinárias eram negativas. Entretanto, a tomografia computadorizada de abdômen evidenciou uma massa adrenal que também se contrastou na cintilografia com metaiodobenzilguanidina (MIBG). Esse estudo mostra que a análise molecular do paciente índice pode levar à identificação de parentes assintomáticos portadores da mutação. Além disso, mesmo com as metanefrinas urinárias negativas, a identificação de uma mutação específica levou a um aumento da suspeita e detecção de feocromocitoma na irmã dos afetados pela doença.

On a control of a non-ideal mono-rail system with periodics coefficients

In this work, the problem in the loads transport (in platforms or suspended by cables) it is considered. The system in subject is composed for mono-rail system and was modeled through the system: inverted pendulum, car and motor and the movement equations were obtained through the Lagrange equations. In the model, was considered the interaction among of the motor and system dynamics for several potencies motor, that is, the case studied is denominated a non-ideal periodic problem. The non-ideal periodic problem dynamics was analyzed, qualitatively, through the comparison of the stability diagrams, numerically obtained, for several motor torque constants. Furthermore, one was made it analyzes quantitative of the problem through the analysis of the Floquet multipliers. Finally, the non-ideal problem was controlled. The method that was used for analysis and control of non-ideal periodic systems is based on the Chebyshev polynomial expansion, in the Picard iterative method and in the Lyapunov-Floquet transformation (L-F trans formation). This method was presented recently in [3-9].

Rail, urban transport and road maintenance: current trends and prospects

This edition of the FAL Bulletin provides an account of recent developments and trends in rail and urban transport and road maintenance in Latin America and the Caribbean.