936 resultados para Natural Catastrophe, Property Insurance, Loss Distribution, Truncated Data, Ruin Probability


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Salmonella are Gram-negative, intracellular food-borne pathogens that cause pregnancy complications. In pregnant mice, Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium (S.Tm) infection results in placental bacterial replication, inflammation, necrosis, and fetal loss by unknown mechanisms. Necroptosis, or programmed necrosis mediated by RIPK3 (receptor-interacting protein kinase 3), an inflammatory cell death pathway, is implicated in the pathogenesis of S.Tm in non-pregnant mice. This goal of this thesis was to investigate the role of necroptosis in the pathogenesis of S.Tm infection during mouse pregnancy. I hypothesized that elimination of the key necroptotic cell death protein RIPK3 would decrease placental inflammation and trophoblast cell death, and increase conceptus survival compared to controls. Mice expressing a functional Slc11a1 (encodes the natural resistance-associated macrophage protein 1, NRAMP1) gene with or without RIPK3 function (Ripk3-/-Slc11a1+/+ compared to Slc11a1+/+) were infected with 103 S.Tm by tail vein injection on gestational day (GD) 12. Mice were euthanized on GD 14 (48h post-infection) or GD 15 (72h post-infection) and implantation sites (IS) and maternal serum were harvested for analyses. In nearly all challenged mice (except one outlier), S.Tm were detected in most IS within a litter but there was limited immune cell infiltration, placental damage or cell death in Slc11a1 competent mice regardless of Ripk3 gene deletion. Maternal serum cytokine analyses confirmed lack of maternal immune responses to S.Tm infection. IS amongst the litter of a single dam (Ripk3-/-Slc11a1+/+ at 72h postinfection) displayed heavy but not universal placental S.Tm infection of decidual tissues and spongiotrophoblast, associated with elevated maternal serum pro-inflammatory cytokines. S.Tm infection of the fetal yolk sac (YS) was observed in 54.5% of IS from this dam. YS infection was confirmed in archival samples in mice expressing Ripk3 with intact Slc11a1 and in mice lacking functional Slc11a1. In Slc11a1 incompetent mice, S.Tm were detected in placental labyrinthine trophoblast. Based on the available data, this thesis suggests that Ripk3 and necroptosis have no significant roles in either promotion or prevention of progressive Salmonella infection during mouse pregnancy. It also provides pilot data that NRAMP1 controls placental localization and lethality due to YS infection.

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In this thesis the mostly unknown herpetofauna in Hin Nam No National Protected Area Laos in the northern Truong Son Range was for the first time intensively investigated, and its diversity was compared to the bordering, and well-investigated Phong Nha - Ke Bang National Park in Vietnam. Twelve new vertebrate species were described comprising 11 geckonids (Cyrtodactylus bansocensis, C. calamei, C. hinnamnoensis, C. jaegeri, C. rufford, C. sommerladi, C. soudthichaki, Gekko boehmei, G. bonkowskii, G. sengchanthavongi, G. thakhekensis, Lycodon banksi and one colubrid snake (Lycodon banksi). Seven species were discovered for the first time in Laos including three frogs (Gracixalus quyeti, G. supercornutus, Rhacophorus maximus), two geckos (Cyrtodactylus cryptus, C. pseudoquadrivirgatus) and two snakes (Lycodon futsingensis, L. ruhstrati abditus). The main hypothesis that the Truong Son Range acted as a biogeographic barrier for the distribution of amphibians and reptiles could be confirmed at least for karst adapted gekkonids. Compared to other herpetofaunal groups the number of gekkonids in karst formations was particularly high (seven bent-toed geckos, four true geckos). By comparing the relative amounts of shared species in Hin Nam No and Phong Nha - Ke Bang, it is interesting to note that fewer reptile species (38%) than amphibian species (66%) were shared between both regions. This might indicate that the Truong Son Range acts as a stronger biogeographical barrier for reptiles than for amphibians. Two pairs of karst-adapted cryptic gecko species (i.e. species with distinct genetic differences, but a similar phenotype) occurred on both sides of the Truong Son Range. Only in one case these were sibling species (Crytodactylus sommerladi in Laos versus C. roesleri in Vietnam), but not in the other (C. hinnamnoensis in Laos versus C. phongnhakebangensis in Vietnam). On the Laotian side, nine gecko species (Cyrtodactylus bansocensis, C. calamei, C. darevskii, C. hinnamnoensis, C. khammouanensis, C. multiporus, C. sommerladi, G. boehmei, G. sengchanthavongi) currently have to be regarded as endemic to the Hin Nam No region. On the Vietnamese side, seven species including two bent-toed geckos (Cyrtodactylus phongnhakebangensis and C. roesleri), three skinks (Lygosoma boehmei, Sphenomorphus tetradactylus and Tropidophorus noggei), and two snakes (Hebius andreae and Boiga bourreti) are currently only known from Phong Nha - Ke Bang and adjacent regions. These high numbers of potential endemic species together with the cryptic species complex in Cyrtodactylus provide strong evidence that the karst formations in the northern Truong Son Range represent a hot spot of reptile diversity and of speciation in Crytodactylus in particular. Correct species identification is a fundamental requirement for conservation measures. The discovery of cryptic species complexes poses a challenge for alpha taxonomy and species conservation, because the true distribution ranges of the species are in fact much smaller than previously assumed. Species conservation in this area of Laos is facing a number of further problems. New and potentially endemic species were discovered in highly populated and disturbed areas. Conversion of the Ho Chi Minh Trail into a highway provided easy access for farmers and still continues to accelerate the destruction of remote forest areas. Southern Hin Nam No with its high diversity of endemic species was identified as the first priority area for conservation. Also Ban Soc, an area isolated from Hin Nam No, should be among the conservation priorities because this region houses a so far overlooked population of the critically endangered Siamese crocodile. Efforts to establish a legal conservation status for this habitat are in progress.

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Effective management of invasive fishes depends on the availability of updated information about their distribution and spatial dispersion. Forensic analysis was performed using online and published data on the European catfish, Silurus glanis L., a recent invader in the Tagus catchment (Iberian Peninsula). Eighty records were obtained mainly from anglers’ fora and blogs, and more recently from www.youtube.com. Since the first record in 1998, S. glanis expanded its geographic range by 700 km of river network, occurring mainly in reservoirs and in high-order reaches. Human-mediated and natural dispersal events were identified, with the former occurring during the first years of invasion and involving movements of >50 km. Downstream dispersal directionality was predominant. The analysis of online data from anglers was found to provide useful information on the distribution and dispersal patterns of this non-native fish, and is potentially applicable as a preliminary, exploratory assessment tool for other non-native fishes.

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The Atlantic Forest is one of the most diverse areas in the world and considered a hotspot. Several actions are needed for its preservation, among them the implementation of the Biodiversity Corridors. The Atlantic Forest has three biodiversity corridors and the Rio de Janeiro State, which harbors huge species diversity, is in the Serra do Mar Corridor. We developed socioeconomic, political and environmental indicators to present conservation strategies supported by a wide database. These indicators complemented the previous surveys of priority areas which emphasized biotic elements, and their integration allowed the elaboration of strategies for the conservation and management, regionally directed, to support actions to be implemented by the Government. The analysis was done considering three subjects: Anthropic Pressure, Physical and Biotic State, and Present Ability of Response. Data analysis followed a synthesis-aggregation schedule and the resulting database was taken to a workshop, where specialists proposed strategies and actions for the conservation. These strategies were discussed considering vegetation remnant distribution, biological relevance, environmental vulnerability, kind of anthropic pressure in the region and potential for success of the actions proposed, based on the ability of response. Rio de Janeiro State is very diverse in biotic, physical, political, socioeconomic and cultural aspects which demand specific actions for each region. So, depending on the present situation of the natural and anthropic environments and on the present and future sources of degradation, regionally directed actions are applicable. This specificity in conservation actions will enable that the State remnants will be more successfully protected.

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Knowledge of the geographical distribution of timber tree species in the Amazon is still scarce. This is especially true at the local level, thereby limiting natural resource management actions. Forest inventories are key sources of information on the occurrence of such species. However, areas with approved forest management plans are mostly located near access roads and the main industrial centers. The present study aimed to assess the spatial scale effects of forest inventories used as sources of occurrence data in the interpolation of potential species distribution models. The occurrence data of a group of six forest tree species were divided into four geographical areas during the modeling process. Several sampling schemes were then tested applying the maximum entropy algorithm, using the following predictor variables: elevation, slope, exposure, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and height above the nearest drainage (HAND). The results revealed that using occurrence data from only one geographical area with unique environmental characteristics increased both model overfitting to input data and omission error rates. The use of a diagonal systematic sampling scheme and lower threshold values led to improved model performance. Forest inventories may be used to predict areas with a high probability of species occurrence, provided they are located in forest management plan regions representative of the environmental range of the model projection area.

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This thesis investigates a broad range of topics related to insurance, market power, and inequality, both from an empirical and a theoretical perspective. In the first chapter, I exploit the significant heterogeneity of the shocks hitting Ethiopian households and their heterogeneous response, using relatively recent data (World Bank's LSMS-ISA for households and satellite data for weather shocks). On the one hand, households seem able to insure against most idiosyncratic and mild adverse weather shocks. On the other hand, vulnerability to stronger weather shocks (especially droughts) remains elevated. In the second chapter, starting from firms' individual data, aggregate trends about industry concentration and other proxies of competition are built. This chapter is part of a larger project conducted at the OECD in the Productivity Innovation and Entrepreneurship Division of the STI Directorate The project innovates on the existing literature in its measurement of concentration, aimed at reflecting markets more accurately. On average, aggregate concentration is found to be increasing. In the third chapter, which only lays out some preliminary steps of a more extensive inquiry, I model the heterogeneous effects of aggregate technological progress on individual economic agents and show how this can affect aggregate inequality and other aggregate indicators studied in the macroeconomics literature, such as the entrepreneurship rate and the overall firm distribution. It should be noted, however, that this note is a simple exposition of a possible modelling device rather than a full explanation of these phenomena.

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Although various abutment connections and materials have recently been introduced, insufficient data exist regarding the effect of stress distribution on their mechanical performance. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of different abutment materials and platform connections on stress distribution in single anterior implant-supported restorations with the finite element method. Nine experimental groups were modeled from the combination of 3 platform connections (external hexagon, internal hexagon, and Morse tapered) and 3 abutment materials (titanium, zirconia, and hybrid) as follows: external hexagon-titanium, external hexagon-zirconia, external hexagon-hybrid, internal hexagon-titanium, internal hexagon-zirconia, internal hexagon-hybrid, Morse tapered-titanium, Morse tapered-zirconia, and Morse tapered-hybrid. Finite element models consisted of a 4×13-mm implant, anatomic abutment, and lithium disilicate central incisor crown cemented over the abutment. The 49 N occlusal loading was applied in 6 steps to simulate the incisal guidance. Equivalent von Mises stress (σvM) was used for both the qualitative and quantitative evaluation of the implant and abutment in all the groups and the maximum (σmax) and minimum (σmin) principal stresses for the numerical comparison of the zirconia parts. The highest abutment σvM occurred in the Morse-tapered groups and the lowest in the external hexagon-hybrid, internal hexagon-titanium, and internal hexagon-hybrid groups. The σmax and σmin values were lower in the hybrid groups than in the zirconia groups. The stress distribution concentrated in the abutment-implant interface in all the groups, regardless of the platform connection or abutment material. The platform connection influenced the stress on abutments more than the abutment material. The stress values for implants were similar among different platform connections, but greater stress concentrations were observed in internal connections.

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The SLC8A1 gene, which encodes the Na(+)/Ca(2+) exchanger, plays a key role in calcium homeostasis. Our previous gene expression oligoarray data revealed SLC8A1 underexpression in penile carcinoma (PeCa). The aim of this study was to investigate whether the dysregulation of SLC8A1 expression is associated with apoptosis and cell proliferation in PeCa, via modulation of calcium concentration. The underlying mechanisms of SLC8A1 underexpression were also explored, focusing on copy number alteration and microRNA. Transcript levels of SLC8A1 gene and miR-223 were evaluated by quantitative PCR, comparing PeCa samples with normal glans tissues. SLC8A1 copy number was evaluated by microarray-based comparative genomic hybridization (array-CGH). Caspase-3 and Ki-67 immunostaining, as well as calcium distribution by Laser Ablation Imaging Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry [LA(i)-ICP-MS], were investigated in both normal and tumor samples. Confirming our previous data, SLC8A1 underexpression was detected in PeCa samples (P=0.001) and was not associated with gene copy number loss. In contrast, overexpression of miR-223 (P=0.002) was inversely correlated with SLC8A1 (P=0.015, r=-0.426), its putative repressor. In addition, SLC8A1 underexpression was associated with decreased calcium distribution, high Ki-67 and low caspase-3 immunoexpression in PeCa when compared with normal tissues. Down-regulation of the SLC8A1 gene, most likely mediated by its regulator miR-223, can lead to reduced calcium levels in PeCa and, consequently, to suppression of apoptosis and increased tumor cell proliferation. These data suggest that the miR-223-NCX1-calcium-signaling axis may represent a potential therapeutic approach in PeCa.

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El Niño South Oscillation (ENSO) is one climatic phenomenon related to the inter-annual variability of global meteorological patterns influencing sea surface temperature and rainfall variability. It influences human health indirectly through extreme temperature and moisture conditions that may accelerate the spread of some vector-borne viral diseases, like dengue fever (DF). This work examines the spatial distribution of association between ENSO and DF in the countries of the Americas during 1995-2004, which includes the 1997-1998 El Niño, one of the most important climatic events of 20(th) century. Data regarding the South Oscillation index (SOI), indicating El Niño-La Niña activity, were obtained from Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The annual DF incidence (AIy) by country was computed using Pan-American Health Association data. SOI and AIy values were standardised as deviations from the mean and plotted in bars-line graphics. The regression coefficient values between SOI and AIy (rSOI,AI) were calculated and spatially interpolated by an inverse distance weighted algorithm. The results indicate that among the five years registering high number of cases (1998, 2002, 2001, 2003 and 1997), four had El Niño activity. In the southern hemisphere, the annual spatial weighted mean centre of epidemics moved southward, from 6° 31' S in 1995 to 21° 12' S in 1999 and the rSOI,AI values were negative in Cuba, Belize, Guyana and Costa Rica, indicating a synchrony between higher DF incidence rates and a higher El Niño activity. The rSOI,AI map allows visualisation of a graded surface with higher values of ENSO-DF associations for Mexico, Central America, northern Caribbean islands and the extreme north-northwest of South America.

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Jute fiber is the second most common natural cellulose fiber worldwide, especially in recent years, due to its excellent physical, chemical and structural properties. The objective of this paper was to investigate: the thermal degradation of in natura jute fiber, and the production and characterization of the generated activated carbon. The production consisted of carbonization of the jute fiber and activation with steam. During the activation step the amorphous carbon produced in the initial carbonization step reacted with oxidizing gas, forming new pores and opening closed pores, which enhanced the adsorptive capacity of the activated carbon. N2 gas adsorption at 77K was used in order to evaluate the effect of the carbonization and activation steps. The results of the adsorption indicate the possibility of producing a porous material with a combination of microporous and mesoporous structure, depending on the parameters used in the processes, with resulting specific surface area around 470 m2.g-1. The thermal analysis indicates that above 600°C there is no significant mass loss.

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Patients with obstructive sleep apnea syndrome usually present with changes in upper airway morphology and/or body fat distribution, which may occur throughout life and increase the severity of obstructive sleep apnea syndrome with age. To correlate cephalometric and anthropometric measures with obstructive sleep apnea syndrome severity in different age groups. A retrospective study of cephalometric and anthropometric measures of 102 patients with obstructive sleep apnea syndrome was analyzed. Patients were divided into three age groups (≥20 and <40 years, ≥40 and <60 years, and ≥60 years). Pearson's correlation was performed for these measures with the apnea-hypopnea index in the full sample, and subsequently by age group. The cephalometric measures MP-H (distance between the mandibular plane and the hyoid bone) and PNS-P (distance between the posterior nasal spine and the tip of the soft palate) and the neck and waist circumferences showed a statistically significant correlation with apnea-hypopnea index in both the full sample and in the ≥40 and <60 years age group. These variables did not show any significant correlation with the other two age groups (<40 and ≥60 years). Cephalometric measurements MP-H and PNS-P and cervical and waist circumferences correlated with obstructive sleep apnea syndrome severity in patients in the ≥40 and <60 age group.

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Conventional reflectance spectroscopy (NIRS) and hyperspectral imaging (HI) in the near-infrared region (1000-2500 nm) are evaluated and compared, using, as the case study, the determination of relevant properties related to the quality of natural rubber. Mooney viscosity (MV) and plasticity indices (PI) (PI0 - original plasticity, PI30 - plasticity after accelerated aging, and PRI - the plasticity retention index after accelerated aging) of rubber were determined using multivariate regression models. Two hundred and eighty six samples of rubber were measured using conventional and hyperspectral near-infrared imaging reflectance instruments in the range of 1000-2500 nm. The sample set was split into regression (n = 191) and external validation (n = 95) sub-sets. Three instruments were employed for data acquisition: a line scanning hyperspectral camera and two conventional FT-NIR spectrometers. Sample heterogeneity was evaluated using hyperspectral images obtained with a resolution of 150 × 150 μm and principal component analysis. The probed sample area (5 cm(2); 24,000 pixels) to achieve representativeness was found to be equivalent to the average of 6 spectra for a 1 cm diameter probing circular window of one FT-NIR instrument. The other spectrophotometer can probe the whole sample in only one measurement. The results show that the rubber properties can be determined with very similar accuracy and precision by Partial Least Square (PLS) regression models regardless of whether HI-NIR or conventional FT-NIR produce the spectral datasets. The best Root Mean Square Errors of Prediction (RMSEPs) of external validation for MV, PI0, PI30, and PRI were 4.3, 1.8, 3.4, and 5.3%, respectively. Though the quantitative results provided by the three instruments can be considered equivalent, the hyperspectral imaging instrument presents a number of advantages, being about 6 times faster than conventional bulk spectrometers, producing robust spectral data by ensuring sample representativeness, and minimizing the effect of the presence of contaminants.

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Inductively Coupled Plasma Optical Emission Spectrometry was used to determine Ca, Mg, Mn, Fe, Zn and Cu in samples of processed and natural coconut water. The sample preparation consisted in a filtration step followed by a dilution. The analysis was made employing optimized instrumental parameters and the results were evaluated using methods of Pattern Recognition. The data showed common concentration values for the analytes present in processed and natural samples. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Hierarchical Cluster Analysis (HCA) indicated that the samples of different kinds were statistically different when the concentrations of all the analytes were considered simultaneously.

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A 33-year-old woman complained of unilateral eyelid edema and blurred vision. Initial ophthalmic examination disclosed anterior chamber reaction with keratic precipitates on the cornea, without posterior abnormalities. Anterior uveitis was treated. Despite that, patient showed rapidly progressive unilateral vision loss with optic nerve swelling. Systemic workup was inconclusive, as well as cranial magnetic resonance imaging and cerebrospinal fluid examination. Based on the hypothesis of optic neuritis, intravenous methylprednisolone pulse was performed with no success. During the following days, the patient presented pericardial effusion and cardiac tamponade, progressing to death. Necropsy was performed and diagnosis of extranodal natural killers/T-cell lymphoma, nasal type with ocular involvement was confirmed by immunohistochemistry.

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Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física