A nonlinear model for assessing multiple probabilistic risks: A case study in South five-island of Changdao National Nature Reserve in China

Several methods for estimating the potential impacts caused by multiple probabilistic risks have been suggested. These existing methods mostly rely on the weight sum algorithm to address the need for integrated risk assessment. This paper develops a nonlinear model to perform such an assessment. The joint probability algorithm has been applied to the model development. An application of the developed model in South five-island of Changdao National Nature Reserve, China, combining remote sensing data and a GIS technique, provides a reasonable risk assessment. Based on the case study, we discuss the feasibility of the model. We propose that the model has the potential for use in identifying the regional primary stressor, investigating the most vulnerable habitat, and assessing the integrated impact of multiple stressors. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

利用宽频带台阵资料研究华北地区地壳及上地幔间断面结构

Intense tectonic renovation has occurred in the eastern continent of china since Mesozoic, as evidenced by the high heat flow, widespread magma extrusion and volcanic activities, and development of large sedimentary basins. To explain the cause and mechanism for the tectonic process in this period, some researchers have put forward various models, such as mantle plume, subduction of the Pacific slab, Yangtze Block-North China Block collision, etc. Their seismological evidence, however, is still scarce..During the period from 2000 to 2003, large temporary seismic arrays were established in North China by the Institute of the Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences. Total 129 portable seismic stations were linearly emplaced across the western and eastern boundaries of the Bohai Bay Basin, and accumulated a large amount of high-quality data. Moreover, abundant data were also collected at the capital digital seismic network established in the ninth five-year period of national economic and social development. These provide an unprecedented opportunity for us to study the deep structure and associated geodynamic mechanism of lithospheric processes in North China using seismological techniques.Seismology is a kind of observation-based science. The development of seismic observations greatly promotes the improvement of seismologic theory and methodology. At the beginning of this thesis, I review the history of seismic observation progress, and present some routine processing techniques used in the array seismology. I also introduce two popular seismic imaging methods (receiver function method and seismic tomography).Receiver function method has been widely used to study the crustal and upper mantle structures, and many relevant research results have been published. In this thesis I elaborate the theory of this method, including the basic concept of receiver functions and the methodology for data pre-processing, stacking and migration. I also address some problems often encountered in practical applications of receiver function imaging.By using the teleseismic data collected at the temporary seismic arrays in North China, in particular, the traveltime information of P-to-S conversion and multiple reverberations of the Moho discontinuity, I obtain the distributions of the crustal thickness and the poisson ratio at the northwest boundary area of the Bohai Bay Basin and discuss the geological implications of the results.Through detailed intestigations on the crustal structural feature around the middle part of the Tanlu fault, considerable disparity in poisson ratios is found in the western and eastern sides of the Tanlu fault. Moreover, an obvious Moho offset is coincidently observed at the same surface location. A reasonable density model for the Tanlu fault area is also derived by simulating the observed gravity variations. Both receiver function study and gravity anomaly modeling suggest that the crustal difference between the western and eastern sides of the Tanlu fault is mainly resulted from their different compositions.With common conversion point imaging of receiver functions, I estimate the depths of the upper and lower boundaries of the mantle transition zone, i.e., the 410 and 660 km discontinuities, beneath most part of the North China continent The thickness of the transition zone (TTZ) in the study area is calculated by subtracting the depth of .410 km discontinuity from that of the 660km discontinuity. The resultant TTZ is 10-15 km larger in the east than in the west of the study area. Phase transitions at the 410 km and the 660 km discontinuities are known to have different Clapeyron slopes. Therefore, the TTZ is sensitive to the temperature changes in the transition zone. Previous studies have shown that the TTZ would be smaller in the mantle plume areas and become larger when the remnants of subducted slabs are present The hypothesis of mantle plume cannot give a reasonable interpretation to the observed TTZ beneath North China, Instead, the receiver function imaging results favor a dynamic model that correlates the thermal structure of the mantle transition zone and associated upper mantle dynamics of North China to the Pacific plate subduction process.

Evaluation of a national evidence-based health care course via teleconference in a developing country

Rationale, aims and objectives Continuing health education is essential but challenged. in 2006, the Brazilian Cochrane Center, in collaboration with the Ministry of Health, launched a mass teaching initiative in evidence-based health care (EBH) for public-sector professionals via teleconferencing. This 152-hour, interactive EBH course has enrolled over 4500 professionals. This study aimed to assess the acquisition EBH knowledge and skills, as well as the attitudes and perceptions of a sample of students enrolled in the 2009 course via teleconferencing.Methods This prospective cohort study analyzed three aspects of this 152-hour EBH course that recruited 1040 volunteer participants, all public health sector employees working in 131 different hospitals or health agencies. Pre- and post-course tests using a modified version of the Berlin questionnaire with 20 multiple-choice questions were used to examine knowledge acquisition in a sample of 297 students. Tests were completed upon registration and at course completion. the research projects submitted by 872 participants were evaluated to assess skill acquisition. Answers to an anonymous survey assessed the attitudes and perceptions of 914 participants.Results There was a significant increase in knowledge from baseline to course completion (mean scores 8.2 +/- 3.3 versus 13.7 +/- 3.0, P < 0.001). Over 90% of the research projects were judged to be of adequate quality (appropriate rationale for the study, well-formulated research question and feasible execution); over 95% of the participants were satisfied with the course.Conclusion the Brazilian EBH course via teleconference improved the knowledge and skills of public-sector health professionals and was approved by the vast majority of students.

How smokers may react to cigarette taxes and price increases in Brazil: data from a national survey

Background: Despite being the third largest tobacco producer in the world, Brazil has developed a comprehensive tobacco control policy that includes a broad restriction on both advertising and smoking in indoor public places, compulsory pictorial warning labels, and a menthol cigarette ban. However, tax and pricing policies have been developed slowly and only very recently were stronger measures implemented. This study investigated the expected responses of smokers to hypothetical price increases in Brazil.Methods: We analyzed smokers' responses to hypothetical future price increases according to sociodemographic characteristics and smoking conditions in a multistage sample of Brazilian current cigarette smokers aged >= 14 years (n = 500). Logistic regression analysis was used to examine the relationship between possible responses and different predictors.Results: in most subgroups investigated, smokers most frequently said they would react to a hypothetical price increase by taking up alternatives that might have a positive impact on health, i.e., they would try to stop smoking (52.3%) or smoke fewer cigarettes (46.8%). However, a considerable percentage responded that they would use alternatives that would reduce the effect of price increases, such as the same brand with lower cost (48.1%). After controlling for sex age group (14-19, 20-39, 40-59, and >= 60 years), schooling level (>= 9 versus <= 9 years), number of cigarettes per day (>20 versus <= 20), and stage of change for smoking cessation (precontemplation, contemplation, and preparation), lower levels of dependence were positively associated with the response I would try to stop smoking (odds ratio [OR], 2.19). Young age was associated with I would decrease the number of cigarettes (OR, 3.44). A low schooling level was strongly associated with all responses.Conclusions: Taxes and prices increases have great potential to stimulate cessation or reduction of cigarette consumption further among two important vulnerable populations of smokers in Brazil: young smokers and those of low educational level. the results from the present study also suggest that seeking illegal products may reduce the impact of increased taxes, but does not eliminate it.

Evaluation of the Specialist Libraries/Communities of Practice. Report for National Library for Health

Cooper, J., Spink, S., Thomas, R. & Urquhart, C. (2005). Evaluation of the Specialist Libraries/Communities of Practice. Report for National Library for Health. Aberystwyth: Department of Information Studies, University of Wales Aberystwyth. Sponsorship: National Library for Health (NLH)

Assessing training and professional development needs of library staff. Report for National Library of Health

Urquhart, C., Spink, S. & Thomas, R., Assessing training and professional development needs of library staff. Report for National Library of Health. (2005). Aberystwyth: Department of Information Studies, University of Wales Aberystwyth Sponsorship: National Library for Health (NHS Information Authority)

Moving Communities of Practice forward: the challenge for the National electronic Library for Health and its Virtual Branch Libraries

Yeoman, A., Urquhart, C. & Sharp, S. (2003). Moving Communities of Practice forward: the challenge for the National electronic Library for Health and its Virtual Branch Libraries. Health Informatics Journal, 9(4), 241-252. Previously appeared as a conference paper for the iSHIMR2003 conference (Proceedings of the Eighth International Symposium on Health Information Management Research, June 1-3, 2003, Boras, Sweden) Sponsorship: NHS Information Authority/National electronic Library for Health

Developing communities of practice in the NeLH (National electronic Library for Health)

Urquhart, C., Yeoman, A., Sharp, S. (2003). Developing communities of practice in the NeLH (National electronic Library for Health). In Proceedings of the UKAIS (UK Academy for Information Systems) annual conference, University of Warwick, April 2003. Sponsorship: NHS Information Authority/National electronic Library for Health

Procurement of electronic content across the UK National Health Service and Higher Education sectors. Report to JISC executive and LKDN executive.

Spink, S., Urquhart, C., Cox, A. & Higher Education Academy - Information and Computer Sciences Subject Centre. (2007). Procurement of electronic content across the UK National Health Service and Higher Education sectors. Report to JISC executive and LKDN executive. Sponsorship: JISC/LKDN

Collaboration on procurement of e-content between the National Health Service and higher education in the UK

Urquhart, C. J., Cox, A. M.& Spink, S. (2007). Collaboration on procurement of e-content between the National Health Service and higher education in the UK. Interlending & Document Supply, 35(3), 164-170. Sponsorship: JISC, LKDN

Ignorance is no Defence but is Inaccessibility? On the Accessibility of National Laws to Foreign Online Publishers

Kohl, U. (2005). Ignorance is no Defence but is Inaccessibility? On the Accessibility of National Laws to Foreign Online Publishers. Information & Communities Technology Law, 14 (1), 25-41. RAE2008 Information & Communications Technology Law Volume 14, Issue 1, 2005 Special Issue: GATED COMMUNITIES

HIV/AIDS and national security

McInnes, C., 'HIV/AIDS and national security', in: AIDS and Governance, N. Poku, A. Whiteside and B. Sandkjaer (eds.),(Aldershot: Ashgate, 2007), pp.93-111 RAE2008

Most Haunted and the Convergence of Traditional Belief and Popular Television

Koven, M. (2007). Most Haunted and the Convergence of Traditional Belief and Popular Television. Folklore. 118(2), pp.183-202. RAE2008

Folklore Studies and Popular Film and Television: A Necessary Critical Survey

Koven, M. (2003). Folklore Studies and Popular Film and Television: A Necessary Critical Survey. Journal of American Folklore. 116(460), pp.176-195. RAE2008

Towards national identities: Welsh theatres

Williams, Ioan. 'Towards national identities: Welsh theatres', In: The Cambridge History of British Theatre, (Eds) Kershaw, Baz., Cambridge University Press, 2004, pp.242-272 RAE2008