Effect of uncertainty in surface mass balance--elevation feedback on projections of the future sea level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet

We apply a new parameterisation of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) feedback between surface mass balance (SMB: the sum of surface accumulation and surface ablation) and surface elevation in the MAR regional climate model (Edwards et al., 2014) to projections of future climate change using five ice sheet models (ISMs). The MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional: Fettweis, 2007) climate projections are for 2000–2199, forced by the ECHAM5 and HadCM3 global climate models (GCMs) under the SRES A1B emissions scenario. The additional sea level contribution due to the SMB– elevation feedback averaged over five ISM projections for ECHAM5 and three for HadCM3 is 4.3% (best estimate; 95% credibility interval 1.8–6.9 %) at 2100, and 9.6% (best estimate; 95% credibility interval 3.6–16.0 %) at 2200. In all results the elevation feedback is significantly positive, amplifying the GrIS sea level contribution relative to the MAR projections in which the ice sheet topography is fixed: the lower bounds of our 95% credibility intervals (CIs) for sea level contributions are larger than the “no feedback” case for all ISMs and GCMs. Our method is novel in sea level projections because we propagate three types of modelling uncertainty – GCM and ISM structural uncertainties, and elevation feedback parameterisation uncertainty – along the causal chain, from SRES scenario to sea level, within a coherent experimental design and statistical framework. The relative contributions to uncertainty depend on the timescale of interest. At 2100, the GCM uncertainty is largest, but by 2200 both the ISM and parameterisation uncertainties are larger. We also perform a perturbed parameter ensemble with one ISM to estimate the shape of the projected sea level probability distribution; our results indicate that the probability density is slightly skewed towards higher sea level contributions.

Adjustments in the forcing-feedback framework for understanding climate change

The traditional forcing-feedback framework has provided an indispensable basis for discussing global climate changes. However, as analysis of model behavior has become more detailed, shortcomings and ambiguities in the framework have become more evident and physical effects unaccounted for by the traditional framework have become interesting. In particular, the new concept of adjustments, which are responses to forcings that are not mediated by the global mean temperature, has emerged. This concept, related to the older ones of climate efficacy and stratospheric adjustment, is a more physical way of capturing unique responses to specific forcings. We present a pedagogical review of the adjustment concept, why it is important, and how it can be used. The concept is particularly useful for aerosols, where it helps to organize what has become a complex array of forcing mechanisms. It also helps clarify issues around cloud and hydrological response, transient vs. equilibrium climate change, and geoengineering.

Contributions of different cloud types to feedbacks and rapid adjustments in CMIP5

Using five climate model simulations of the response to an abrupt quadrupling of CO2, the authors perform the first simultaneous model intercomparison of cloud feedbacks and rapid radiative adjustments with cloud masking effects removed, partitioned among changes in cloud types and gross cloud properties. Upon CO2 quadrupling, clouds exhibit a rapid reduction in fractional coverage, cloud-top pressure, and optical depth, with each contributing equally to a 1.1 W m−2 net cloud radiative adjustment, primarily from shortwave radiation. Rapid reductions in midlevel clouds and optically thick clouds are important in reducing planetary albedo in every model. As the planet warms, clouds become fewer, higher, and thicker, and global mean net cloud feedback is positive in all but one model and results primarily from increased trapping of longwave radiation. As was true for earlier models, high cloud changes are the largest contributor to intermodel spread in longwave and shortwave cloud feedbacks, but low cloud changes are the largest contributor to the mean and spread in net cloud feedback. The importance of the negative optical depth feedback relative to the amount feedback at high latitudes is even more marked than in earlier models. The authors show that the negative longwave cloud adjustment inferred in previous studies is primarily caused by a 1.3 W m−2 cloud masking of CO2 forcing. Properly accounting for cloud masking increases net cloud feedback by 0.3 W m−2 K−1, whereas accounting for rapid adjustments reduces by 0.14 W m−2 K−1 the ensemble mean net cloud feedback through a combination of smaller positive cloud amount and altitude feedbacks and larger negative optical depth feedbacks.

Negative online consumer reviews: effects of different responses

Purpose When consumers buy online, they are often confronted with consumer reviews. A negative consumer review on an online shopping website may keep consumers from buying the product. Therefore, negative online consumer reviews are a serious problem for brands. This paper aims to investigate the effects of different response options to a negative consumer review. Design/methodology/approach In an online experiment of 446 participants different response options towards a negative consumer review on an online shopping website are examined. The experimental data is analysed with simple linear regression models using product purchase intentions as the outcome variable. Findings The results indicate that a positive customer review counteracts a negative consumer review more effectively than a positive brand response, whereas brand strength moderates this relationship. Including a reference to an independent, trusted source in a brand or a customer response is only a limited strategy for increasing the effectiveness of a response. Research limitations/implications Additional research in other product categories and with other subjects than students is suggested to validate the findings. In future research, multiple degrees of the phrasing’s strength of the reference could be used. Practical implications Assuming high quality products, brands should encourage their customers to write reviews. Strong brands can also reassure consumers by responding whereas weak brands cannot. Originality/value This research contributes to the online consumer reviews literature with new insights about the role of brand strength and referencing to an independent, trusted source.

Investigating music tempo as a feedback mechanism for closed-loop BCI control

The feedback mechanism used in a brain-computer interface (BCI) forms an integral part of the closed-loop learning process required for successful operation of a BCI. However, ultimate success of the BCI may be dependent upon the modality of the feedback used. This study explores the use of music tempo as a feedback mechanism in BCI and compares it to the more commonly used visual feedback mechanism. Three different feedback modalities are compared for a kinaesthetic motor imagery BCI: visual, auditory via music tempo, and a combined visual and auditory feedback modality. Visual feedback is provided via the position, on the y-axis, of a moving ball. In the music feedback condition, the tempo of a piece of continuously generated music is dynamically adjusted via a novel music-generation method. All the feedback mechanisms allowed users to learn to control the BCI. However, users were not able to maintain as stable control with the music tempo feedback condition as they could in the visual feedback and combined conditions. Additionally, the combined condition exhibited significantly less inter-user variability, suggesting that multi-modal feedback may lead to more robust results. Finally, common spatial patterns are used to identify participant-specific spatial filters for each of the feedback modalities. The mean optimal spatial filter obtained for the music feedback condition is observed to be more diffuse and weaker than the mean spatial filters obtained for the visual and combined feedback conditions.

Design of delay-tolerant space–time codes with limited feedback

In cooperative communication networks, owing to the nodes' arbitrary geographical locations and individual oscillators, the system is fundamentally asynchronous. Such a timing mismatch may cause rank deficiency of the conventional space-time codes and, thus, performance degradation. One efficient way to overcome such an issue is the delay-tolerant space-time codes (DT-STCs). The existing DT-STCs are designed assuming that the transmitter has no knowledge about the channels. In this paper, we show how the performance of DT-STCs can be improved by utilizing some feedback information. A general framework for designing DT-STC with limited feedback is first proposed, allowing for flexible system parameters such as the number of transmit/receive antennas, modulated symbols, and the length of codewords. Then, a new design method is proposed by combining Lloyd's algorithm and the stochastic gradient-descent algorithm to obtain optimal codebook of STCs, particularly for systems with linear minimum-mean-square-error receiver. Finally, simulation results confirm the performance of the newly designed DT-STCs with limited feedback.

Long-latency reductions in gamma power predict hemodynamic changes that underlie the negative BOLD signal

Studiesthat use prolonged periods of sensory stimulation report associations between regional reductions in neural activity and negative blood oxygenation level-dependent (BOLD) signaling. However, the neural generators of the negative BOLD response remain to be characterized. Here, we use single-impulse electrical stimulation of the whisker pad in the anesthetized rat to identify components of the neural response that are related to “negative” hemodynamic changes in the brain. Laminar multiunit activity and local field potential recordings of neural activity were performed concurrently withtwo-dimensional optical imaging spectroscopy measuring hemodynamic changes. Repeated measurements over multiple stimulation trials revealed significant variations in neural responses across session and animal datasets. Within this variation, we found robust long-latency decreases (300 and 2000 ms after stimulus presentation) in gammaband power (30 – 80 Hz) in the middle-superficial cortical layers in regions surrounding the activated whisker barrel cortex. This reduction in gamma frequency activity was associated with corresponding decreases in the hemodynamic responses that drive the negative BOLD signal. These findings suggest a close relationship between BOLD responses and neural events that operate over time scales that outlast the initiating sensory stimulus, and provide important insights into the neurophysiological basis of negative neuroimaging signals.

Potential role of vegetation feedback in the climate sensitivity of high-latitude regions: a case study at 6000 years B.P.

Previous climate model simulations have shown that the configuration of the Earth's orbit during the early to mid-Holocene (approximately 10–5 kyr) can account for the generally warmer-than-present conditions experienced by the high latitudes of the northern hemisphere. New simulations for 6 kyr with two atmospheric/mixed-layer ocean models (Community Climate Model, version 1, CCMl, and Global ENvironmental and Ecological Simulation of Interactive Systems, version 2, GENESIS 2) are presented here and compared with results from two previous simulations with GENESIS 1 that were obtained with and without the albedo feedback due to climate-induced poleward expansion of the boreal forest. The climate model results are summarized in the form of potential vegetation maps obtained with the global BIOME model, which facilitates visual comparisons both among models and with pollen and plant macrofossil data recording shifts of the forest-tundra boundary. A preliminary synthesis shows that the forest limit was shifted 100–200 km north in most sectors. Both CCMl and GENESIS 2 produced a shift of this magnitude. GENESIS 1 however produced too small a shift, except when the boreal forest albedo feedback was included. The feedback in this case was estimated to have amplified forest expansion by approximately 50%. The forest limit changes also show meridional patterns (greatest expansion in central Siberia and little or none in Alaska and Labrador) which have yet to be reproduced by models. Further progress in understanding of the processes involved in the response of climate and vegetation to orbital forcing will require both the deployment of coupled atmosphere-biosphere-ocean models and the development of more comprehensive observational data sets

Evidence for interplay between genes and maternal stress in utero: monoamine oxidase A polymorphism moderates effects of life events during pregnancy on infant negative emotionality at 5 weeks

The low activity variant of the monoamine oxidase A (MAOA) functional promoter polymorphism, MAOA-LPR, in interaction with adverse environments (G × E) is associated with child and adult antisocial behaviour disorders. MAOA is expressed during foetal development so in utero G × E may influence early neurodevelopment. We tested the hypothesis that MAOA G × E during pregnancy predicts infant negative emotionality soon after birth. In an epidemiological longitudinal study starting in pregnancy, using a two stage stratified design, we ascertained MAOA-LPR status (low vs. high activity variants) from the saliva of 209 infants (104 boys and 105 girls), and examined predictions to observed infant negative emotionality at 5 weeks post-partum from life events during pregnancy. In analyses weighted to provide estimates for the general population, and including possible confounders for life events, there was an MAOA status by life events interaction (P = 0.017). There was also an interaction between MAOA status and neighbourhood deprivation (P = 0.028). Both interactions arose from a greater effect of increasing life events on negative emotionality in the MAOA-LPR low activity, compared with MAOA-LPR high activity infants. The study provides the first evidence of moderation by MAOA-LPR of the effect of the social environment in pregnancy on negative emotionality in infancy, an early risk for the development of child and adult antisocial behaviour disorders.

Soil conditioning and plant-soil feedbacks in a modified forest ecosystem are soil-context dependent

Aims There is potential for altered plant-soil feedback (PSF) to develop in human-modified ecosystems but empirical data to test this idea are limited. Here, we compared the PSF operating in jarrah forest soil restored after bauxite mining in Western Australia with that operating in unmined soil. Methods Native seedlings of jarrah (Eucalyptus marginata), acacia (Acacia pulchella), and bossiaea (Bossiaea ornata) were grown in unmined and restored soils to measure conditioning of chemical and biological properties as compared with unplanted control soils. Subsequently, acacia and bossiaea were grown in soils conditioned by their own or by jarrah seedlings to determine the net PSF. Results In unmined soil, the three plant species conditioned the chemical properties but had little effect on the biological properties. In comparison, jarrah and bossiaea conditioned different properties of restored soil while acacia did not condition this soil. In unmined soil, neutral PSF was observed, whereas in restored soil, negative PSF was associated with acacia and bossiaea. Conclusions Soil conditioning was influenced by soil context and plant species. The net PSF was influenced by soil context, not by plant species and it was different in restored and unmined soils. The results have practical implications for ecosystem restoration after human activities.

Negative priming in free recall reconsidered

Recent investigations of the phenomenon of forgetting have been driven mostly by the development of a novel theoretical framework which places great emphasis on inhibitory control (Anderson, 2003; Anderson & Spellman, 1995; Bjork, 1989). Whereas traditional, interference-based theories consider forgetting to be a by-product of storing new information, the inhibitory framework postulates a specialized mechanism, or a group of mechanisms, that serves the function of ‘deactivating’ information which is currently irrelevant. This process of inhibiting currently irrelevant information is thought to have lasting consequences, affecting memory for the irrelevant information on subsequent tests. The active and functional perspective on forgetting embedded in the inhibitory framework opens new fields for examining the role of forgetting in cognitive functioning. Differences in the ability to inhibit irrelevant information have been postulated to play important roles in a range of clinical conditions (e.g., Soriano, Jiménez, Román, & Bajo, 2009; Storm & White, 2010) and the trajectory of cognitive development (e.g., Aslan & Bäuml, 2010) as well as contributing to individual differences in many other cognitive and social domains (Redick, Heitz, & Engle, 2007).

Is cognitive bias modification training truly beneficial for adolescents?

Background Cognitive Bias Modification (CBM) has been shown to change interpretation biases commonly associated with anxiety and depression and may help ameliorate symptoms of these disorders. However, its evidence base for adolescents is scarce. Previous results have been hard to interpret because of methodological issues. In particular, many studies have used negative bias training as the control condition. This would tend to inflate any apparent benefits of CBM compared to a neutral control. Most studies also only examined the effects of a single training session and lacked follow-up assessment or ecologically valid outcome measures. Method Seventy-four adolescents, aged 16–18 years, were randomised to two sessions of CBM training or neutral control. Interpretation bias and mood were assessed three times: at baseline, immediately post-training and 1 week post-training. A controlled experimental stressor was also used, and responses to everyday stressors were recorded for 1 week after training to assess responses to psychological challenges. Feedback for the training programme was collected. Results The CBM group reported a greater reduction in negative affect than control participants. However, other hypothesised advantages of CBM were not demonstrated. Regardless of training group, participants reported increased positive interpretations, decreased negative interpretations, reduced depressive symptoms and no change in trait anxiety. The two groups did not differ in their stress reactivity. After controlling for group differences in training performance, all the mood effects disappeared. Conclusions When tested under stringent experimental conditions the effects of CBM in healthy adolescents appear to be minimal. Future studies should concentrate on participants with elevated cognitive biases and/or mood symptoms who may be more sensitive to CBM.

‘It Was All My Fault’: negative interpretation bias in depressed adolescents

The extent to which cognitive models of development and maintenance of depression apply to adolescents is largely untested, despite the widespread application of Cognitive Behavior Therapy (CBT) for depressed adolescents. Cognitive models suggest that negative cognitions, including interpretation bias, play a role in etiology and maintenance of depression. Given that cognitive development is incomplete by the teenage years and that CBT is not superior to non-cognitive treatments in the treatment of adolescent depression, it is important to test the underlying model. The primary aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that interpretation biases are exhibited by depressed adolescents. Four groups of adolescents were recruited: clinically-referred depressed (n = 27), clinically-referred non-depressed (n = 24), community with elevated depression symptoms (n = 42) and healthy community (n = 150). Participants completed a 20 item ambiguous scenarios questionnaire. Clinically-referred depressed adolescents made significantly more negative interpretations and rated scenarios as less pleasant than all other groups. The results suggest that this element of the cognitive model of depression is applicable to adolescents. Other aspects of the model should be tested so that cognitive treatment can be modified or adapted if necessary.

Snow-albedo feedback and Swiss spring temperature trends

We quantify the effect of the snow-albedo feedback on Swiss spring temperature trends using daily temperature and snow depth measurements from six station pairs for the period 1961–2011. We show that the daily mean 2-m temperature of a spring day without snow cover is on average 0.4 °C warmer than one with snow cover at the same location. This estimate is comparable with estimates from climate modelling studies. Caused by the decreases in snow pack, the snow-albedo feedback amplifies observed temperature trends in spring. The influence is small and confined to areas around the upward-moving snow line in spring and early summer. For the 1961–2011 period, the related temperature trend increases are in the order of 3–7 % of the total observed trend.