Parameter estimation of structural commodity price models

Commodity price modeling is normally approached in terms of structural time-series models, in which the different components (states) have a financial interpretation. The parameters of these models can be estimated using maximum likelihood. This approach results in a non-linear parameter estimation problem and thus a key issue is how to obtain reliable initial estimates. In this paper, we focus on the initial parameter estimation problem for the Schwartz-Smith two-factor model commonly used in asset valuation. We propose the use of a two-step method. The first step considers a univariate model based only on the spot price and uses a transfer function model to obtain initial estimates of the fundamental parameters. The second step uses the estimates obtained in the first step to initialize a re-parameterized state-space-innovations based estimator, which includes information related to future prices. The second step refines the estimates obtained in the first step and also gives estimates of the remaining parameters in the model. This paper is part tutorial in nature and gives an introduction to aspects of commodity price modeling and the associated parameter estimation problem.

A new distributed control strategy to coordinate multiple dstatcoms in LV network

Voltage rise is the main issue which limits the capacity of Low Voltage (LV) network to accommodate more Renewable Energy (RE) sources. In addition, voltage drop at peak load period is a significant power quality concern. This paper proposes a new robust voltage support strategy based on distributed coordination of multiple distribution static synchronous compensators (DSTATCOMs). The study focuses on LV networks with PV as the RE source for customers. The proposed approach applied to a typical LV network and its advantages are shown comparing with other voltage control strategies.

Structural identification of hindered amine light stabilisers in coil coatings using electrospray ionisation tandem mass spectrometry

Hindered amine light stabilisers (HALS) are the most effective antioxidants currently available for polymer systems in post-production, in-service applications, yet the mechanism of their action is still not fully understood. Structural characterisation of HALS in polymer matrices, particularly the identification of structural modifications brought about by oxidative conditions, is critical to aid mechanistic understanding of the prophylactic effects of these molecules. In this work, electrospray ionisation tandem mass spectrometry (ESI-MS/MS) was applied to the analysis of a suite of commercially available 2,2,6,6-tetramethylpiperidine-based HALS. Fragmentation mechanisms for the \[M + H](+) ions are proposed, which provide a rationale for the product ions observed in the MS/MS and MS(3) mass spectra of N-H, N-CH(3), N-C(O)CH(3) and N-OR containing HALS (where R is an alkyl substituent). A common product ion at m/z 123 was identified for the group of antioxidants containing N-H, N-CH3 or N-C(0)CH3 functionality, and this product ion was employed in precursor ion scans on a triple quadrupole mass spectrometer to identify the HALS species present in a crude extract from of a polyester-based coil coating. Using MS/MS, two degradation products were unambiguously identified. This technique provides a simple and selective approach to monitoring HALS structures within complex matrices. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Stop and revive? The effectiveness of nap and active rest breaks for reducing drivers sleepiness

The purpose of this study was to compare the effects of two commonly utilised sleepiness countermeasures: a nap break and an active rest break. The effects of the countermeasures were evaluated by physiological (EEG), subjective, and driving performance measures. Participants completed two hours of simulated driving, followed by a 15 minute nap break or a 15 minute active rest break then completed the final hour of simulated driving. The nap break reduced EEG and subjective sleepiness. The active rest break did not reduce EEG sleepiness, with sleepiness levels eventually increasing, and resulted in an immediate reduction of subjective sleepiness. No difference was found between the two breaks for the driving performance measure. The immediate reduction of subjective sleepiness after the active rest break could leave drivers with erroneous perceptions of their sleepiness, particularly with increases of physiological sleepiness after the break.

Scleral matrix metalloproteinases, serine proteinase activity and hydrational capacity are increased in myopia induced by retinal image degradation

In the avian model of myopia, retinal image degradation quickly leads to ocular enlargement. We now give evidence that regionally specific changes in ocular size are correlated with both biomechanical indices of scleral remodeling, e.g. hydration capacity and with biochemical changes in proteinase activities. The latter include a 72 kDa matrix metalloproteinase (putatively MMP-2), other gelatin-binding MMPs, an acid pH MMP and a serine protease. Specifically, we have found that increases in scleral hydrational capacity parallel increases in collagen degrading activities. Gelatin zymography reveals that eyes with 7 days of retinal image degradation have elevated levels (1.4-fold) of gelatinolytic activities at 72 and 67 kDa M(r) in equatorial and posterior pole regions of the sclera while, after 14 days of treatment, increases are no longer apparent. Lower M(r) zymographic activities at 50, 46 and 37 kDa M(r) are collectively increased in eyes treated for both 7 and 14 days (1.4- and 2.4-fold respectively) in the equator and posterior pole areas of enlarging eyes. Western blot analyses of scleral extracts with an antibody to human MMP-2 reveals immunoreactive bands at 65, 30 and 25 kDa. Zymograms incubated under slightly acidic conditions reveal that, in enlarging eyes, MMP activities at 25 and 28 kDa M(r) are increased in scleral equator and posterior pole (1.6- and 4.5-fold respectively). A TIMP-like protein is also identified in sclera and cornea by Western blot analysis. Finally, retinal-image degradation also increases (~2.6-fold) the activity of a 23.5 kDa serine proteinase in limbus, equator and posterior pole sclera that is inhibited by aprotinin and soybean trypsin inhibitor. Taken together, these results indicate that eye growth induced by retinal-image degradation involves increases in the activities of multiple scleral proteinases that could modify the biomechanical properties of scleral structural components and contribute to tissue remodeling and growth.

Enabling safe autonomous driving in real-world city traffic using multiple criteria decision making

This paper addresses the topic of real-time decision making for autonomous city vehicles, i.e., the autonomous vehicles' ability to make appropriate driving decisions in city road traffic situations. The paper explains the overall controls system architecture, the decision making task decomposition, and focuses on how Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) is used in the process of selecting the most appropriate driving maneuver from the set of feasible ones. Experimental tests show that MCDM is suitable for this new application area.

Predicting emotional exhaustion among haemodialysis nurses : a structural equation model using Kanter’s structural empowerment theory

Aim To test an explanatory model of the relationships between the nursing work environment, job satisfaction, job stress and emotional exhaustion for haemodialysis nurses, drawing on Kanter's theory of organizational empowerment. Background Understanding the organizational predictors of burnout (emotional exhaustion) in haemodialysis nurses is critical for staff retention and improving nurse and patient outcomes. Previous research has demonstrated high levels of emotional exhaustion among haemodialysis nurses, yet the relationships between nurses' work environment, job satisfaction, stress and emotional exhaustion in this population are poorly understood. Design A cross-sectional online survey. Methods 417 nurses working in haemodialysis units completed an online survey between October 2011–April 2012 using validated measures of the work environment, job satisfaction, job stress and emotional exhaustion. Results Overall, the structural equation model demonstrated adequate fit and we found partial support for the hypothesized relationships. Nurses' work environment had a direct positive effect on job satisfaction, explaining 88% of the variance. Greater job satisfaction, in turn, predicted lower job stress, explaining 82% of the variance. Job satisfaction also had an indirect effect on emotional exhaustion by mitigating job stress. However, job satisfaction did not have a direct effect on emotional exhaustion. Conclusion The work environment of haemodialysis nurses is pivotal to the development of job satisfaction. Nurses' job satisfaction also predicts their level of job stress and emotional exhaustion. Our findings suggest staff retention can be improved by creating empowering work environments that promote job satisfaction among haemodialysis nurses.

The construction of social identity in newly recruited nuclear engineering staff : a longitudinal study

This study examines the process by which newly recruited nuclear engineering and technical staff came to understand, define, think, feel and behave within a distinct group that has a direct contribution to the organization's overall emphasis on a culture of reliability and system safety. In the field of organizational behavior the interactive model of social identity formation has been recently proposed to explain the process by which the internalization of shared norms and values occurs, an element critical in identity formation. Using this rich model of organizational behavior we analyzed multiple sources of data from nine new hires over a period of three years. This was done from the time they were employed to investigate the construction of social identity by new entrants entering into a complex organizational setting reflected in the context of a nuclear facility. Informed by our data analyses, we found support for the interactive model of social identity development and report the unexpected finding that a newly appointed member's age and level of experience appears to influence the manner in which they adapt, and assimilate into their surroundings. This study represents an important contribution to the safety and reliability literature as it provides a rich insight into the way newly recruited employees enact the process by which their identities are formed and hence act, particularly under conditions of duress or significant organizational disruption in complex organizational settings.

Multiple map hypotheses for planning and navigating in non-stationary environments

This paper presents a method to enable a mobile robot working in non-stationary environments to plan its path and localize within multiple map hypotheses simultaneously. The maps are generated using a long-term and short-term memory mechanism that ensures only persistent configurations in the environment are selected to create the maps. In order to evaluate the proposed method, experimentation is conducted in an office environment. Compared to navigation systems that use only one map, our system produces superior path planning and navigation in a non-stationary environment where paths can be blocked periodically, a common scenario which poses significant challenges for typical planners.

Self assembly of plasmonic core-satellite nano-assemblies mediated by hyperbranched polymer linkers

The morphology of plasmonic nano-assemblies has a direct influence on optical properties, such as localised surface plasmon resonance (LSPR) and surface enhanced Raman scattering (SERS) intensity. Assemblies with core-satellite morphologies are of particular interest, because this morphology has a high density of hot-spots, while constraining the overall size. Herein, a simple method is reported for the self-assembly of gold NPs nano-assemblies with a core-satellite morphology, which was mediated by hyperbranched polymer (HBP) linkers. The HBP linkers have repeat units that do not interact strongly with gold NPs, but have multiple end-groups that specifically interact with the gold NPs and act as anchoring points resulting in nano-assemblies with a large (~48 nm) core surrounded by smaller (~15 nm) satellites. It was possible to control the number of satellites in an assembly which allowed optical parameters such as SPR maxima and the SERS intensity to be tuned. These results were found to be consistent with finite-difference time domain (FDTD) simulations. Furthermore, the multiplexing of the nano-assemblies with a series of Raman tag molecules was demonstrated, without an observable signal arising from the HBP linker after tagging. Such plasmonic nano-assemblies could potentially serve as efficient SERS based diagnostics or biomedical imaging agents in nanomedicine.

Vibrational spectroscopy of the sulphate mineral sturmanite from Kuruman manganese deposits, South Africa

The mineral sturmanite is a hydrated calcium iron aluminium manganese sulphate tetrahydroxoborate hydroxide of formula Ca6(Fe, Al, Mn)2(SO4)2(B(OH)4)(OH)12•26H2O. We have studied the mineral sturmanite using a number of techniques, including SEM with EPMA and vibrational spectroscopy. Chemical analysis shows a homogeneous phase, composed by Ca, Fe, Mn, S, Al and Si. B is not determined in this EPMA technique. An intense Raman band at 990 cm−1 is assigned to the SO42− symmetric stretching mode. Raman spectroscopy identifies multiple sulphate symmetric stretching modes in line with the three sulphate crystallographically different sites. Raman spectroscopy also identifies a band at 1069 cm−1 which may be attributed to a carbonate symmetric stretching mode, indicating the presence of thaumasite. Infrared spectra display two bands at 1080 and 1107 cm−1 assigned to the SO42− antisymmetric stretching modes. The observation of multiple bands in this ν4 spectral region offers evidence for the reduction in symmetry of the sulphate anion from Td to C2v or even lower symmetry. The Raman band at 3622 cm−1 is assigned to the OH unit stretching vibration and the broad feature at around 3479 cm−1 to water stretching bands. Infrared spectroscopy shows a set of broad overlapping bands in the OH stretching region. Vibrational spectroscopy enables an assessment of the molecular structure of sturmanite to be made.

Vertical displacement measurement using fibre Bragg grating (FBG) sensors for structural health monitoring of bridges

This thesis developed a practical, cost effective, easy-to-use method for measuring the vertical displacements of bridges using fiber Bragg grating (FBG) sensors, which includes the curvature and inclination approaches. These approaches were validated by the numerical simulation tests on a full scale bridge and the laboratory-based tests. In doing so, a novel frictionless FBG inclination sensor with extremely high sensitivity and resolution has also been developed and validated.

A vibrational spectroscopic study of the silicate mineral analcime – Na2(Al4SiO4O12)·2H2O : a natural zeolite

We have studied the mineral analcime using a combination of scanning electron microscopy with energy dispersive spectroscopy and vibrational spectroscopy. The mineral analcime Na2(Al4SiO4O12)·2H2O is a crystalline sodium silicate. Chemical analysis shows the mineral contains a range of elements including Na, Al, Fe2+ and Si. The mineral is characterized by intense Raman bands observed at 1052, 1096 and 1125 cm−1. The infrared bands are broad; nevertheless bands may be resolved at 1006 and 1119 cm−1. These bands are assigned to SiO stretching vibrational modes. Intense Raman band at 484 cm−1 is attributed to OSiO bending modes. Raman bands observed at 2501, 3542, 3558 and 3600 cm−1 are assigned to the stretching vibrations of water. Low intensity infrared bands are noted at 3373, 3529 and 3608 cm−1. The observation of multiple water bands indicate that water is involved in the structure of analcime with differing hydrogen bond strengths. This concept is supported by the number of bands in the water bending region. Vibrational spectroscopy assists with the characterization of the mineral analcime.

Mapping eQTLs in the Norfolk Island genetic isolate identifies candidate genes for CVD risk traits

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) affects millions of people worldwide and is influenced by numerous factors, including lifestyle and genetics. Expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs) influence gene expression and are good candidates for CVD risk. Founder-effect pedigrees can provide additional power to map genes associated with disease risk. Therefore, we identified eQTLs in the genetic isolate of Norfolk Island (NI) and tested for associations between these and CVD risk factors. We measured genome-wide transcript levels of blood lymphocytes in 330 individuals and used pedigree-based heritability analysis to identify heritable transcripts. eQTLs were identified by genome-wide association testing of these transcripts. Testing for association between CVD risk factors (i.e., blood lipids, blood pressure, and body fat indices) and eQTLs revealed 1,712 heritable transcripts (p < 0.05) with heritability values ranging from 0.18 to 0.84. From these, we identified 200 cis-acting and 70 trans-acting eQTLs (p < 1.84 × 10(-7)) An eQTL-centric analysis of CVD risk traits revealed multiple associations, including 12 previously associated with CVD-related traits. Trait versus eQTL regression modeling identified four CVD risk candidates (NAAA, PAPSS1, NME1, and PRDX1), all of which have known biological roles in disease. In addition, we implicated several genes previously associated with CVD risk traits, including MTHFR and FN3KRP. We have successfully identified a panel of eQTLs in the NI pedigree and used this to implicate several genes in CVD risk. Future studies are required for further assessing the functional importance of these eQTLs and whether the findings here also relate to outbred populations.

Enhancement of RAD51 recombinase activity by the tumor suppressor PALB2

Homologous recombination mediated by RAD51 recombinase helps eliminate chromosomal lesions, such as DNA double-strand breaks induced by radiation or arising from injured DNA replication forks. The tumor suppressors BRCA2 and PALB2 act together to deliver RAD51 to chromosomal lesions to initiate repair. Here we document a new function of PALB2: to enhance RAD51's ability to form the D loop. We show that PALB2 binds DNA and physically interacts with RAD51. Notably, although PALB2 alone stimulates D-loop formation, it has a cooperative effect with RAD51AP1, an enhancer of RAD51. This stimulation stems from the ability of PALB2 to function with RAD51 and RAD51AP1 to assemble the synaptic complex. Our results demonstrate the multifaceted role of PALB2 in chromosome damage repair. Because PALB2 mutations can cause cancer or Fanconi anemia, our findings shed light on the mechanism of tumor suppression in humans.