907 resultados para Minimum bias
Resumo:
We present a reconstruction of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability spanning the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, A.D. 800-1300) and the Little Ice Age (LIA, A.D. 1500-1850). Changes in ENSO are estimated by comparing the spread and symmetry of d18O values of individual specimens of the thermocline-dwelling planktonic foraminifer Pulleniatina obliquiloculata extracted from discrete time horizons of a sediment core collected in the Sulawesi Sea, at the edge of the western tropical Pacific warm pool. The spread of individual d18O values is interpreted to be a measure of the strength of both phases of ENSO while the symmetry of the d18O distributions is used to evaluate the relative strength/frequency of El Niño and La Niña events. In contrast to previous studies, we use robust and resistant statistics to quantify the spread and symmetry of the d18O distributions; an approach motivated by the relatively small sample size and the presence of outliers. Furthermore, we use a pseudo-proxy approach to investigate the effects of the different paleo-environmental factors on the statistics of the d18O distributions, which could bias the paleo-ENSO reconstruction. We find no systematic difference in the magnitude/strength of ENSO during the Northern Hemisphere MCA or LIA. However, our results suggest that ENSO during the MCA was skewed toward stronger/more frequent La Niña than El Niño, an observation consistent with the medieval megadroughts documented from sites in western North America.
Resumo:
Bivalve shells can provide excellent archives of past environmental change but have not been used to interpret ocean acidification events. We investigated carbon, oxygen and trace element records from different shell layers in the mussels Mytilus galloprovincialis combined with detailed investigations of the shell ultrastructure. Mussels from the harbour of Ischia (Mediterranean, Italy) were transplanted and grown in water with mean pHT 7.3 and mean pHT 8.1 near CO2 vents on the east coast of the island. Most prominently, the shells recorded the shock of transplantation, both in their shell ultrastructure, textural and geochemical record. Shell calcite, precipitated subsequently under acidified seawater responded to the pH gradient by an in part disturbed ultrastructure. Geochemical data from all test sites show a strong metabolic effect that exceeds the influence of the low-pH environment. These field experiments showed that care is needed when interpreting potential ocean acidification signals because various parameters affect shell chemistry and ultrastructure. Besides metabolic processes, seawater pH, factors such as salinity, water temperature, food availability and population density all affect the biogenic carbonate shell archive.
Resumo:
The operator effect is a well-known methodological bias already quantified in some taphonomic studies. However, the replicability effect, i.e., the use of taphonomic attributes as a replicable scientific method, has not been taken into account to the present. Here, we quantified for the first time this replicability bias using different multivariate statistical techniques, testing if the operator effect is related to the replicability effect. We analyzed the results reported by 15 operators working on the same dataset. Each operator analyzed 30 biological remains (bivalve shells) from five different sites, considering the attributes fragmentation, edge rounding, corrasion, bioerosion and secondary color. The operator effect followed the same pattern reported in previous studies, characterized by a worse correspondence for those attributes having more than two levels of damage categories. However, the effect did not appear to have relation with the replicability effect, because nearly all operators found differences among sites. Despite the binary attribute bioerosion exhibited 83% of correspondence among operators it was the taphonomic attributes that showed the highest dispersion among operators (28%). Therefore, we conclude that binary attributes (despite showing a reduction of the operator effect) diminish replicability, resulting in different interpretations of concordant data. We found that a variance value of nearly 8% among operators, was enough to generate a different taphonomic interpretation, in a Q-mode cluster analysis. The results reported here showed that the statistical method employed influences the level of replicability and comparability of a study and that the availability of results may be a valid alternative to reduce bias.
Resumo:
The algorithms designed to estimate snow water equivalent (SWE) using passive microwave measurements falter in lake-rich high-latitude environments due to the emission properties of ice covered lakes on low frequency measurements. Microwave emission models have been used to simulate brightness temperatures (Tbs) for snowpack characteristics in terrestrial environments but cannot be applied to snow on lakes because of the differing subsurface emissivities and scattering matrices present in ice. This paper examines the performance of a modified version of the Helsinki University of Technology (HUT) snow emission model that incorporates microwave emission from lake ice and sub-ice water. Inputs to the HUT model include measurements collected over brackish and freshwater lakes north of Inuvik, Northwest Territories, Canada in April 2008, consisting of snowpack (depth, density, and snow water equivalent) and lake ice (thickness and ice type). Coincident airborne radiometer measurements at a resolution of 80x100 m were used as ground-truth to evaluate the simulations. The results indicate that subsurface media are simulated best when utilizing a modeled effective grain size and a 1 mm RMS surface roughness at the ice/water interface compared to using measured grain size and a flat Fresnel reflective surface as input. Simulations at 37 GHz (vertical polarization) produce the best results compared to airborne Tbs, with a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 6.2 K and 7.9 K, as well as Mean Bias Errors (MBEs) of -8.4 K and -8.8 K for brackish and freshwater sites respectively. Freshwater simulations at 6.9 and 19 GHz H exhibited low RMSE (10.53 and 6.15 K respectively) and MBE (-5.37 and 8.36 K respectively) but did not accurately simulate Tb variability (R= -0.15 and 0.01 respectively). Over brackish water, 6.9 GHz simulations had poor agreement with airborne Tbs, while 19 GHz V exhibited a low RMSE (6.15 K), MBE (-4.52 K) and improved relative agreement to airborne measurements (R = 0.47). Salinity considerations reduced 6.9 GHz errors substantially, with a drop in RMSE from 51.48 K and 57.18 K for H and V polarizations respectively, to 26.2 K and 31.6 K, although Tb variability was not well simulated. With best results at 37 GHz, HUT simulations exhibit the potential to track Tb evolution, and therefore SWE through the winter season.
Resumo:
Respiration rates of 16 calanoid copepod species from the northern Benguela upwelling system were measured on board RRS Discovery in September/October 2010 to determine their energy requirements and assess their significance in the carbon cycle. Copepod species were sampled by different net types. Immediately after the hauls, samples were sorted to species and stages (16 species; females, males and C5 copepodids) according to Bradford-Grieve et al. (1999). Specimens were kept in temperature-controlled refrigerators for at least 12 h before they were used in experiments. Respiration rates of different copepod species were measured onboard by optode respirometry (for details see Köster et al., 2008) with a 10-channel optode respirometer (PreSens Precision Sensing Oxy-10 Mini, Regensburg, Germany) under simulated in situ conditions in temperature-controlled refrigerators. Experiments were run in gas-tight glass bottles (12-13 ml). For each set of experiments, two controls without animals were measured under exactly the same conditions to compensate for potential bias. The number of animals per bottle depended on the copepods size, stage and metabolic activity. Animals were not fed during the experiments but they showed natural species-specific movements. Immediately after the experiments, all specimens were deep-frozen at - 80 °C for later dry mass determination (after lyophilisation for 48 h) in the home lab. The carbon content (% of dry mass) of each species was measured by mass-spectrometry in association with stable isotope analysis and body dry mass was converted to units of carbon. For species without available carbon data, the mean value of all copepod species (44% dry mass) was applied. For the estimation of carbon requirements of copepod species, individual oxygen consumption rates were converted to carbon units, assuming that the expiration of 1 ml oxygen mobilises 0.44 mg of organic carbon by using a respiratory quotient (RQ) of 0.82 for a mixed diet consisting of proteins (RQ = 0.8-1.0), lipids (RQ = 0.7) and carbohydrates (RQ = 1.0) (Auel and Werner, 2003). The carbon ingestion rates were calculated using the energy budget and the potential maximum ingestion rate approach. To allow for physiological comparisons of respiration rates of deep- and shallow-living copepod species without the effects of ambient temperature and different individual body mass, individual respiration rates were temperature- (15°C, Q10=2) and size-adjusted. The scaling coefficient of 0.76 (R2=0.556) is used for the standardisation of body dry mass to 0.3 mg (mean dry mass of all analysed copepods), applying the allometric equation R= (R15°C/M0.76)×0.30.76, where R is respiration and M is individual dry mass in mg.
Resumo:
The northern Arabian Sea is one of the few regions in the open ocean where thermocline water is severely depleted in oxygen. The intensity of this oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) has been reconstructed over the past 225,000 years using proxies for surface water productivity, water column denitrification, winter mixing, and the aragonite compensation depth (ACD). Changes in OMZ intensity occurred on orbital and suborbital timescales. Lowest O2 levels correlate with productivity maxima and shallow winter mixing. Precession-related productivity maxima lag early summer insolation maxima by ~6 kyr, which we attribute to a prolonged summer monsoon season related to higher insolation at the end of the summer. Periods with a weakened or even non-existent OMZ are characterized by low productivity conditions and deep winter mixing attributed to strong and cold winter monsoonal winds. The timing of deep winter mixing events corresponds with that of periods of climatic cooling in the North Atlantic region.
Resumo:
To understand the adaptation of euphausiid (krill) species to oxygen minimum zones (OMZ), respiratory response and stress experiments combining hypoxia/reoxygenation exposure with warming were conducted. Experimental krill species were obtained from the Antarctic (South Georgia area), the Humboldt Current system (HCS, Chilean coast), and the Northern California Current system (NCCS, Oregon). Euphausia mucronata from the HCS shows oxyconforming or oxygen partial pressure (pO2)-dependent respiration below 80% air saturation (18 kPa). Normoxic subsurface oxygenation in winter posed a "high oxygen stress" for this species. The NCCS krill, Euphausia pacifica, and the Antarctic krill, Euphausia superba maintain respiration rates constant down to low critical pO2 values of 6 kPa (30% air saturation) and 11 kPa (55% air saturation), respectively. Antarctic krill had the lowest antioxidant enzyme activities, but the highest concentrations of the molecular antioxidant glutathione (GSH) and was not affected by 6 h exposure to moderate hypoxia. Temperate krill species had higher SOD (superoxide dismutase) values in winter than in summer, which relate to higher winter metabolic rate (E. pacifica). In all species, antioxidant enzyme activities remained constant during hypoxic exposure at habitat temperature. Warming by 7°C above habitat temperature in summer increased SOD activities and GSH levels in E. mucronata (HCS), but no oxidative damage occurred. In winter, when the NCCS is well mixed and the OMZ is deeper, +4°C of warming combined with hypoxia represents a lethal condition for E. pacifica. In summer, when the OMZ expands upwards (100 m subsurface), antioxidant defences counteracted hypoxia and reoxygenation effects in E. pacifica, but only at mildly elevated temperature (+2°C). In this season, experimental warming by +4°C reduced antioxidant activities and the hypoxia combination again caused mortality of exposed specimens. We conclude that a climate change scenario combining warming and hypoxia represents a serious threat to E. pacifica and, as a consequence, NCCS food webs.