Bayesian versus frequentist statistical inference for investi gating a one-off cancer cluster reported to a health department

Background The problem of silent multiple comparisons is one of the most difficult statistical problems faced by scientists. It is a particular problem for investigating a one-off cancer cluster reported to a health department because any one of hundreds, or possibly thousands, of neighbourhoods, schools, or workplaces could have reported a cluster, which could have been for any one of several types of cancer or any one of several time periods. Methods This paper contrasts the frequentist approach with a Bayesian approach for dealing with silent multiple comparisons in the context of a one-off cluster reported to a health department. Two published cluster investigations were re-analysed using the Dunn-Sidak method to adjust frequentist p-values and confidence intervals for silent multiple comparisons. Bayesian methods were based on the Gamma distribution. Results Bayesian analysis with non-informative priors produced results similar to the frequentist analysis, and suggested that both clusters represented a statistical excess. In the frequentist framework, the statistical significance of both clusters was extremely sensitive to the number of silent multiple comparisons, which can only ever be a subjective "guesstimate". The Bayesian approach is also subjective: whether there is an apparent statistical excess depends on the specified prior. Conclusion In cluster investigations, the frequentist approach is just as subjective as the Bayesian approach, but the Bayesian approach is less ambitious in that it treats the analysis as a synthesis of data and personal judgements (possibly poor ones), rather than objective reality. Bayesian analysis is (arguably) a useful tool to support complicated decision-making, because it makes the uncertainty associated with silent multiple comparisons explicit.

Initial steps in optimal planning of a distribution system

This paper reports the initial steps of research on planning of rural networks for MV and LV. In this paper, two different cases are studied. In the first case, 100 loads are distributed uniformly on a 100 km transmission line in a distribution network and in the second case, the load structure become closer to the rural situation. In case 2, 21 loads are located in a distribution system so that their distance is increasing, distance between load 1 and 2 is 3 km, between 2 and 3 is 6 km, etc). These two models to some extent represent the distribution system in urban and rural areas, respectively. The objective function for the design of the optimal system consists of three main parts: cost of transformers, and MV and LV conductors. The bus voltage is expressed as a constraint and should be maintained within a standard level, rising or falling by no more than 5%.

"Well, now I'm upset": Moral and social orders in the playground

There is much still to learn about how young children’s membership with peers shapes their constructions of moral and social obligations within everyday activities in the school playground. This paper investigates how a small group of girls, aged four to six years, account for their everyday social interactions in the playground. They were video-recorded as they participated in a pretend game of school. Several days later, a video-recorded excerpt of the interaction was shown to them and invited to comment on what was happening in the video. This conversation was audio-recorded. Drawing on a conversation analysis approach, this chapter shows that, despite their discontent and complaining about playing the game of school, the girls’ actions showed their continued orientation to the particular codes of the game, of ‘no going away’ and ‘no telling’. By making relevant these codes, jointly constructed by the girls during the interview, they managed each other’s continued participation within two arenas of action: the pretend, as a player in a pretend game of school; and the real, as a classroom member of a peer group. Through inferences to explicit and implicit codes of conduct, moral obligations were invoked as the girls attempted to socially exclude or build alliances with others, and enforce their own social position. As well, a shared history that the girls re-constructed has moral implications for present and future relationships. The girls oriented to the history as an interactional resource for accounting for their actions in the pretend game. This paper uncovers how children both participate in, and shape, their everyday social worlds through talk and interaction and the consequences a taken-for-granted activity such as playing school has for their moral and social positions in the peer group.

Trip to Sunshine Coast Queensland, September 2004 visit to bridge and foreshore

A trip was undertaken to look at concerns of Public Works and Main Roads Departments of Queensland. David Paterson and Wayne Ganther from CSIRO travelled to the Sunshine Coast with Alan Carse of Queensland Department of Main Roads and Michael Ball of Queensland Department of Public Works. We were also joined for part of the visits by Ed Bowers of QBuild which is a commercial unit of Public Works responsible for maintenance of Public Works. During the trip we visited a bridge on the David Low Way at Sunrise Beach near Noosa. This bridge was in a serve marine environment with high salt content in the concrete and corrosion of the galvanised guardrails and barriers. Also the foreshore at Coolum was visited and the use of stainless steel was examined. This is discussed in this report. Most problems stemmed from incorrect specification due to lack of awareness of the severity of the environment. The companion report Visit to Schools Report 2002-059-B No 7. covers the visit to four schools north of Caloundra.

Psychiatric disorder in HIV infection

Objective: This study aimed to investigate rates of psychiatric disorder in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, in an Australian sample of homosexual and bisexual men. Method: A cross-sectional study of a total of 65 HIV sero-negative (HIV-) and 164 HIV sero-positive men (HIVt) (79 CDC stage 1 1/1 11 and 85 CDC stage IV) was conducted in three centres. Lifetime and current prevalence rates of psychiatric disorder were evaluated using the Diagnostic Interview Schedule Version lllR (DIS-IIIR). Results: Elevated current and lifetime rates of major depression were detected in both HIV negative and HIV positive homosexual/bisexual men. Lifetime rates of alcohol abuseldependence were significantly elevated in HIV positive men (CDC group IV) when compared with HIV negative men. Among the HIV positive group the majority of psychiatric disorders detected were preceded by a pre-HIV diagnosis of psychiatric disorder. Major depression represented the disorder most likely to have first onset after HIV infection diagnosis. Conclusions: Lifetime rates of major depression were elevated in this sample of HIV-negative and HIV-positive men, In the HIV-positive men, psychiatric disorder was significantly associated with the presence of lifetime psychiatric disorder prior to HIV infection diagnosis, The findings indicate the importance of evaluation of psychiatric history prior to HIV infection and the clinical significance of depressive syndromes in this population.

Suicidal ideation, suicide attempts, and HIV infection

A cross-sectional study was performed to investigate the prevalence and predictors of suicidal ideation and past suicide attempt in an Australian sample of human imumunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive and HIV-negative homosexual and bisexual men. Sixty-five HIV-negative and 164 HIV-positive men participated. A suicidal ideation score was derived from using five items selected from the Beck Depression Inventory and the General Health Questionnaire (28-item version). Lifetime and current prevalence rates of psychiatric disorder were evaluated with the Diagnostic Interview Schedule Version-III-R. The HIV-positive (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention [CDC] Stage IV) men (n=85) had significantly higher total suicidal ideation scores than the asymptomatic HIV-positive men (CDC Stage II/III) (n=79) and the HIV-negative men. High rates of past suicide attempt were detected in the HIV-negative (29%) and HIV-positive men (21%). Factors associated with suicidal ideation included being HIV-positive, the presence of current psychiatric disorder, higher neuroticism scores, external locus of control, and current unemployment. In the HIV-positive group analyzed separately, higher suicidal ideation was discriminated by the adjustment to HIV diagnosis (greater hopelessness and lower fighting spirit), disease factors (greater number of current acquired immunodeficiency syndrome [AIDS]-related conditions), and background variables (neuroticism). Significant predictors of a past attempted suicide were a positive lifetime history of psychiatric disorder (particularly depression diagnoses), a lifetime history of injection drug use, and a family history of suicide attempts. The findings indicate increased levels of suicidal ideation in symptomatic HIV-positive men and highlight the role that multiple psychosocial factors associated with suicidal ideation and attempted suicide play in this population.

Post-traumatic stress disorder in response to HIV infection

This study investigated the psychological impact of HIV infection through assessment of posttraumatic stress disorder in response to HIV infection. Sixty-one HIV-positive homosexual/bisexual men were assessed for posttraumatic stress disorder in response to HIV infection (PTSD-HIV) using a modified PTSD module of the DIS-III-R. Thirty percent met criteria for a syndrome of posttraumatic stress disorder in response to HIV diagnosis (PTSD-HIV). In over one-third of the PTSD cases, the disorder had an onset greater than 6 months after initial HIV infection diagnosis. PTSD-HIV was associated with other psychiatric diagnoses, particularly the development of first episodes of major depression after HIV infection diagnosis. PTSD-HIV was significantly associated with a pre-HIV history of PTSD from other causes, and other pre-HIV psychiatric disorders and neuroticism scores, indicating a similarity with findings in studies of PTSD from other causes. The findings from this preliminary study suggest that a PTSD response to HIV diagnosis has clinical validity and requires further investigation in this population and other medically ill groups. The results support the inclusion of the diagnosis of life-threatening illness as a traumatic incident that may lead to a posttraumatic stress disorder, which is consistent with the DSM-IV criteria.

Operation and control of a microgrid containing inertial and non-inertial micro sources

In this paper, a new power sharing control method for a microgrid with several distributed generation units is proposed. The presence of both inertial and noninertial sources with different power ratings, maximum power point tracking, and various types of loads pose a great challenge for the power sharing and system stability. The conventional droop control method is modified to achieve the desired power sharing ensuring system stability in a highly resistive network. A transformation matrix is formed to derive equivalent real and reactive power output of the converter and equivalent feedback gain matrix for the modified droop equation. The proposed control strategy, aimed for the prototype microgrid planned at Queensland University of Technology, is validated through extensive simulation results using PSCAD/EMTDC software.

The economic rationale for infection control in Australian hospitals

The objective of the present study was to predict the economic consequences of healthcare-acquired infections arising among admissions to Australian acute care hospitals. A quantitative algorithm informed by epidemiological and economic data was developed. All acute care hospitals in Australia were included in the study and the participants included all admissions to general medical and general surgical specialties. The main outcome measures were the numbers of cases of healthcare-acquired infection and bed days lost annually. It was estimated that there are 175 153 (95% credible interval 155 911 : 195 168) cases of healthcare-acquired infection among admissions to Australian hospitals annually, and the extra stay in hospital to treat symptoms accounts for 854 289 bed days (95% credible interval 645 091 : 1 096 244). If rates were reduced by 1%, then 150 158 bed days would be released for alternative uses. This would allow ~38 500 new admissions. Healthcare-acquired infections in patients cause bed blocks in Australian hospitals. The cost-effectiveness of hospital services might be improved by allocating more resources to infection control, releasing beds and allowing new admissions. There exists an opportunity to improve the efficiency of the Australian health care system.

Sustainable construction for the future - the role of government in energy efficiency and sustainability in buildings

This paper will summarise the findings from a study that explored the link between dwelling design, or type, and energy efficiencies in sub-tropical climates. An increasing number of government and private sector development companies are initiating projects that aim to deliver enhanced environmental outcomes at both sub-divisional and dwelling levels. The study used AccuRate, a new thermal modelling tool developed by CSIRO that responds to the need to improve ventilation modelling. The study found that dwellings developed in conjunction with the Departments of Housing and Public Works have set the benchmark. It provides a snapshot of the energy efficiency of a range of dwelling types found in recent subdivisions. However, the trend toward increasing urban densities may reduce the likelihood that cooling breezes will be available to cool dwellings. The findings are relevant to regulators, designers and industry in all states interested in reducing the energy used to cool dwellings in summer.

Sustainable suburbs : the developer’s challenge

As our cities expand, developers are transforming more and more land to create our suburbs of the future. Developers and government bodies have a golden opportunity to design suburbs that are not only great places to live, but also are environmentally sensitive and sustainable. This is a unique opportunity, as significant changes after development are constrained by the configuration of the subdivision, and then by the construction of the dwellings. This paper explores some of these issues by presenting initial findings from the CRCCI, Sustainable Subdivisions Project. The Project examines the drivers and barriers that land developers face when trying to achieve sustainable subdivisions. This paper will review the results from a series of industry interviews and workshops and explore possible ways forward. In addition, the possible effect on the way future land subdivision is managed and planned as a result of recent changes in the energy efficiency provisions of the Building Code of Australia will be explored. This paper highlights problems that both builders and land developers may face through poor subdivision design. Finally an innovative program being driven by a major land developer will be introduced. The program aims to deliver over 400 energy and water efficient homes through a series of compulsory and voluntary schemes that the developer is designing, funding and implementing. This program is the first large-scale development in Australia that demonstrates how developers can help achieve environmentally sensitive and sustainable suburbs of the future.

Energy efficient multi storey residential developments

Worldwide, the current pattern of urban development is unsustainable and metropolitan planning and development strategies deliver poor environmental outcomes in relation to energy production. As a result, an increasing number of governments and private sector development companies are initiating projects that aim to deliver enhanced environmental outcomes rather than a ‘business as usual’ approach. This paper will summarise the findings from a study that explored the link between building orientation and energy efficiencies in sub-tropical and tropical climates. The study used a new thermal modelling software tool developed by CSIRO that responds more accurately to residential heating and cooling energy performance in those climate zones. This software tool responds to industry criticisms regarding cold climate modelling systems that do not make sufficient allowance for natural ventilation. The study examined a range of low, medium and high-density dwelling types and investigated the impact of orientation, insulation, ventilation and shading devices on energy efficiencies. This paper will examine the findings from the medium and high-density case study developments as these are relevant to residential developments in many South East Asian countries, such as Singapore, Hong Kong and Malaysia. Finally, the paper will explore the potential benefits that medium and high-density residential developments have in the development of ‘solar cities’ and ‘solar suburbs’.

How to achieve sustainability : regulatory challenges

The importance of designing sustainable buildings is gaining greater acceptance worldwide. Evidence of this is how regulators are incorporating sustainable design principles into building regulations and requirements. The aim being to increase the number of sustainable buildings and move from a traditional voluntary compliance to one that is mandatory. However, developing regulations that actually achieve these aims can be a difficult exercise. Several countries in South East Asia, such as Singapore and Malaysia, have performance based building regulations that are supplemented by prescriptive measures for achieving the desired performance. Australia too has similar building regulations and has had energy efficiency regulations within the Building Code of Australia for over a decade. This paper explores some of the difficulties and problems that Australian regulators have experienced with the performance-based method and the prescriptive or “deemed-to-comply” method and measures that have been taken to try and overcome these problems. These experiences act as a useful guide to all regulators considering the incorporation of sustainable design measures into their countries building regulations. The paper also speculates on future environmental requirements being incorporated into regulations, including the possibility of non-residential buildings being required to meet minimum energy efficiency requirements, and the possible systems that would need to be in place before such requirements were included. Finally, the paper looks at a possible way forward using direct assessment from electronic designs and introduces several software tools that are currently being developed that move towards achieving this goal. Keywords: Sustainable buildings, Performance-based, Regulations, Energy efficiency, Assessment tools.

Sustainable subdivisions : energy-efficient design report to industry

This report summarises the findings from the Sustainable Subdivisions: Energy-Efficient Design project. As new energy-efficiency regulations are developed, there will be a significant demand for information on available assessment tools for rating energy-efficient dwellings, and subdivisional issues such as orientation and solar access will become increasingly important. There will also be increased pressure for products that deliver energy efficiency, such as solar technology, glazing systems, insulation and low-energy building products and materials. The objectives of the Sustainable Subdivisions: Energy-Efficient Design project were to:

Uptake of an OHS code of practice by Australian construction firms

The Australian construction industry is moving towards the implementation of a voluntary code of practice (VCP) for occupational health and safety (OHS). The evidence suggests that highly-visible clients and project management firms, in addition to their subcontractors, will embrace such a code, while smaller firms not operating in high-profile contracting regimes may prove reticent. This paper incorporates qualitative data from a research project commissioned by Engineers Australia and supported by the Australian Contractors’ Association, Property Council of Australia, Royal Australian Institute of Architects, Association of Consulting Engineers Australia, Australian Procurement and Construction Council, Master Builders Australia and the Australian CRC for Construction Innovation. The paper aims to understand the factors that facilitate or prevent the uptake of the proposed VCP by smaller firms, together with pathways to adoption.