An Overview of Modelling Bulgarian Wildland Fire Behaviour by Application of a Mathematical Game Method and WRF-Fire Models

This paper presents the main achievements of the author’s PhD dissertation. The work is dedicated to mathematical and semi-empirical approaches applied to the case of Bulgarian wildland fires. After the introductory explanations, short information from every chapter is extracted to cover the main parts of the obtained results. The methods used are described in brief and main outcomes are listed. ACM Computing Classification System (1998): D.1.3, D.2.0, K.5.1.

Oligopoly Model of a Debit Card Network

JEL Classification: G21, L13.

Compound Compound Poisson Risk Model

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 60K10, 62P05.

Bayesian and Frequentist Two-Sample Predictions of the Inverse Weibull Model Based on Generalized Order Statistics

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 62E16,62F15, 62H12, 62M20.

Patients’ perceptions and experiences of cardiovascular disease and diabetes prevention programmes:a systematic review and framework synthesis using the Theoretical Domains Framework

Background - This review provides a worked example of ‘best fit’ framework synthesis using the Theoretical Domains Framework (TDF) of health psychology theories as an a priori framework in the synthesis of qualitative evidence. Framework synthesis works best with ‘policy urgent’ questions. Objective - The review question selected was: what are patients’ experiences of prevention programmes for cardiovascular disease (CVD) and diabetes? The significance of these conditions is clear: CVD claims more deaths worldwide than any other; diabetes is a risk factor for CVD and leading cause of death. Method - A systematic review and framework synthesis were conducted. This novel method for synthesizing qualitative evidence aims to make health psychology theory accessible to implementation science and advance the application of qualitative research findings in evidence-based healthcare. Results - Findings from 14 original studies were coded deductively into the TDF and subsequently an inductive thematic analysis was conducted. Synthesized findings produced six themes relating to: knowledge, beliefs, cues to (in)action, social influences, role and identity, and context. A conceptual model was generated illustrating combinations of factors that produce cues to (in)action. This model demonstrated interrelationships between individual (beliefs and knowledge) and societal (social influences, role and identity, context) factors. Conclusion - Several intervention points were highlighted where factors could be manipulated to produce favourable cues to action. However, a lack of transparency of behavioural components of published interventions needs to be corrected and further evaluations of acceptability in relation to patient experience are required. Further work is needed to test the comprehensiveness of the TDF as an a priori framework for ‘policy urgent’ questions using ‘best fit’ framework synthesis.

HIV, cardiovascular diseases, and chronic arsenic exposure co-exist in a positive synergy

Recent epidemiological evidences indicate that arsenic exposure increases risk of atherosclerosis, cardio vascular diseases (CVD) such as hypertension, atherosclerosis, coronary artery disease (CAD) and microangiopathies in addition to the serious global health concern related to its carcinogenic effects. In experiments on animals, acute and chronic exposure to arsenic directly correlates with cardiac tachyarrhythmia, and atherogenesis in a concentration and duration dependent manner. Moreover, the other effects of long-term arsenic exposure include induction of non-insulin dependent diabetes by mechanisms yet to be understood. On the other hand, there are controversial issues, gaps in knowledge, and future research priorities in accelerated incidences of CVD and mortalities in patients with HIV who are under long-termanti-retroviral therapy (ART). Although, both HIV infection itself and various components of ART initiate significant pathological alterations in the myocardium and the vasculature, simultaneous environmental exposure to arsenic which is more convincingly being recognized as a facilitator of HIV viral cycling in the infected immune cells, may contribute an additional layer of adversity in these patients. A high degree of suspicion and early screening may allow appropriate interventional guidelines to improve the quality of lives of those affected. In this mini-review which have been fortified with our own preliminary data, we will discuss some of the key current understating of chronic arsenic exposure, and its possible impact on the accelerated HIV/ART induced CVD. The review will conclude with notes on recent developments in mathematical modeling in this field that probabilistically forecast incidence prevalence as functions of aging and life style parameters, most of which vary with time themselves; this interdisciplinary approach provides a complementary kernel to conventional biology.

Non-thermal transitions in a model inspired by moral decisions

This work introduces a model in which agents of a network act upon one another according to three different kinds of moral decisions. These decisions are based on an increasing level of sophistication in the empathy capacity of the agent, a hierarchy which we name Piaget's ladder. The decision strategy of the agents is non-rational, in the sense they are arbitrarily fixed, and the model presents quenched disorder given by the distribution of its defining parameters. An analytical solution for this model is obtained in the large system limit as well as a leading order correction for finite-size systems which shows that typical realisations of the model develop a phase structure with both continuous and discontinuous non-thermal transitions.

A new epistemic model

Meier (2012) gave a "mathematical logic foundation" of the purely measurable universal type space (Heifetz and Samet, 1998). The mathematical logic foundation, however, discloses an inconsistency in the type space literature: a finitary language is used for the belief hierarchies and an infinitary language is used for the beliefs. In this paper we propose an epistemic model to fix the inconsistency above. We show that in this new model the universal knowledgebelief space exists, is complete and encompasses all belief hierarchies. Moreover, by examples we demonstrate that in this model the players can agree to disagree Aumann (1976)'s result does not hold, and Aumann and Brandenburger (1995)'s conditions are not sufficient for Nash equilibrium. However, we show that if we substitute selfevidence (Osborne and Rubinstein, 1994) for common knowledge, then we get at that both Aumann (1976)'s and Aumann and Brandenburger (1995)'s results hold.

On arterial contractility, energetic requirements of the cardiovascular system, and the formation of arterial sclerosis

The aorta has been viewed as a passive distribution manifold for blood whose elasticity allows it to store blood during cardiac ejection (systole), and release it during relaxation (diastole). This capacitance, or compliance, lowers peak cardiac work input and maintains peripheral sanguine irrigation throughout the cardiac cycle. The compliance of the human and canine circulatory systems have been described either as constant throughout the cycle (Toy et al. 1985) or as some inverse function of pressure (Li et al. 1990, Cappelo et al. 1995). This work shows that a compliance value that is higher during systole than diastole (equivalent to a direct function of pressure) leads to a reduction in the energetic input to the cardiovascular system (CV), even when accounting for the energy required to change compliance. This conclusion is obtained numerically, based on a 3-element lumped-parameter model of the CV, then demonstrated in a physical model built for the purpose. It is then shown, based on the numerical and physical models, on analytical considerations of elastic tubes, and on the analysis of arterial volume as a function of pressure measured in vivo (Armentano et al. 1995), that the mechanical effects of a presupposed arterial contraction are consistent with those of energetically beneficial changes in compliance during the cardiac cycle. Although the amount of energy potentially saved with rhythmically contracting arteries is small (mean 0.55% for the cases studied) the importance of the phenomenon lies in its possible relation to another function of the arterial smooth muscle (ASM): synthesis of wall matrix macromolecules. It is speculated that a reduction in the rate of collagen synthesis by the ASM is implicated in the formation of arteriosclerosis. ^

Reading comprehension and mathematical concept acquisition through the use of math stories with bilingual children

Math storybooks are picture books in which the understanding of mathematical concepts is central to the comprehension of the story. Math stories have provided useful opportunities for children to expand their skills in the language arts area and to talk about mathematical factors that are related to their real lives. The purpose of this study was to examine bilingual children's reading and math comprehension of the math storybooks. ^ The participants were randomly selected from two Korean schools and two public elementary schools in Miami, Florida. The sample consisted of 63 Hispanic American and 43 Korean American children from ages five to seven. A 2 x 3 x (2) mixed-model design with two between- and one within-subjects variable was used to conduct this study. The two between-subjects variables were ethnicity and age, and the within-subjects variable was the subject area of comprehension. Subjects were read the three math stories individually, and then they were asked questions related to reading and math comprehension. ^ The overall ANOVA using multivariate tests was conducted to evaluate the factor of subject area for age and ethnicity. As follow-up tests for a significant main effect and a significant interaction effect, pairwise comparisons and simple main effect tests were conducted, respectively. ^ The results showed that there were significant ethnicity and age differences in total comprehension scores. There were also age differences in reading and math comprehension, but no significant differences were found in reading and math by ethnicity. Korean American children had higher scores in total comprehension than those of Hispanic American children, and they showed greater changes in their comprehension skills at the younger ages, from five to six, whereas Hispanic American children showed greater changes at the older ages, from six to seven. Children at ages five and six showed higher scores in reading than in math, but no significant differences between math and reading comprehension scores were found at age seven. ^ Through schooling with integrated instruction, young bilingual children can move into higher levels of abstraction and concepts. This study highlighted bilingual children's general nature of thinking and showed how they developed reading and mathematics comprehension in an integrated process. ^

A non-linear discrete stochastic optimization model for Advanced Access patient appointment scheduling

Access to healthcare is a major problem in which patients are deprived of receiving timely admission to healthcare. Poor access has resulted in significant but avoidable healthcare cost, poor quality of healthcare, and deterioration in the general public health. Advanced Access is a simple and direct approach to appointment scheduling in which the majority of a clinic's appointments slots are kept open in order to provide access for immediate or same day healthcare needs and therefore, alleviate the problem of poor access the healthcare. This research formulates a non-linear discrete stochastic mathematical model of the Advanced Access appointment scheduling policy. The model objective is to maximize the expected profit of the clinic subject to constraints on minimum access to healthcare provided. Patient behavior is characterized with probabilities for no-show, balking, and related patient choices. Structural properties of the model are analyzed to determine whether Advanced Access patient scheduling is feasible. To solve the complex combinatorial optimization problem, a heuristic that combines greedy construction algorithm and neighborhood improvement search was developed. The model and the heuristic were used to evaluate the Advanced Access patient appointment policy compared to existing policies. Trade-off between profit and access to healthcare are established, and parameter analysis of input parameters was performed. The trade-off curve is a characteristic curve and was observed to be concave. This implies that there exists an access level at which at which the clinic can be operated at optimal profit that can be realized. The results also show that, in many scenarios by switching from existing scheduling policy to Advanced Access policy clinics can improve access without any decrease in profit. Further, the success of Advanced Access policy in providing improved access and/or profit depends on the expected value of demand, variation in demand, and the ratio of demand for same day and advanced appointments. The contributions of the dissertation are a model of Advanced Access patient scheduling, a heuristic to solve the model, and the use of the model to understand the scheduling policy trade-offs which healthcare clinic managers must make. ^

The transducer model for contrast detection and discrimination: formal relations, implications, and an empirical test.

The transducer function mu for contrast perception describes the nonlinear mapping of stimulus contrast onto an internal response. Under a signal detection theory approach, the transducer model of contrast perception states that the internal response elicited by a stimulus of contrast c is a random variable with mean mu(c). Using this approach, we derive the formal relations between the transducer function, the threshold-versus-contrast (TvC) function, and the psychometric functions for contrast detection and discrimination in 2AFC tasks. We show that the mathematical form of the TvC function is determined only by mu, and that the psychometric functions for detection and discrimination have a common mathematical form with common parameters emanating from, and only from, the transducer function mu and the form of the distribution of the internal responses. We discuss the theoretical and practical implications of these relations, which have bearings on the tenability of certain mathematical forms for the psychometric function and on the suitability of empirical approaches to model validation. We also present the results of a comprehensive test of these relations using two alternative forms of the transducer model: a three-parameter version that renders logistic psychometric functions and a five-parameter version using Foley's variant of the Naka-Rushton equation as transducer function. Our results support the validity of the formal relations implied by the general transducer model, and the two versions that were contrasted account for our data equally well.

A reductionist approach to model photosynthetic self-regulation in eukaryotes in response to light

© 2015 Authors; published by Portland Press Limited. This work was supported by the Marie Curie Initial Training Network AccliPhot financed by the European Union [grant number PITN-GA-2012-316427 (to A.M. and O.E.)]; and the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft [Cluster of Excellence on Plant Sciences, CEPLAS (EXC 1028) (to O.E.)].

The Physics of the Vicsek Model

Peer reviewed

A minimal model of partial synchrony

Acknowledgement We wish to acknowledge A. Pikovsky and M. Zaks for useful discussions. This work has been financially supported by the EU project COSMOS (642563).