Bayesian model selection for time series using Markov chain Monte Carlo

We present a stochastic simulation technique for subset selection in time series models, based on the use of indicator variables with the Gibbs sampler within a hierarchical Bayesian framework. As an example, the method is applied to the selection of subset linear AR models, in which only significant lags are included. Joint sampling of the indicators and parameters is found to speed convergence. We discuss the possibility of model mixing where the model is not well determined by the data, and the extension of the approach to include non-linear model terms.

Rapidly Infrared-Assisted Cooperatively Self-Assembled Highly Ordered Multiscale Porous Materials

In this paper, cooperative self-assembly (CSA) of colloidal spheres with different sizes was studied. It was found that a complicated jamming effect makes it difficult to achieve an optimal self-assembling condition for construction of a well-ordered stacking of colloidal spheres in a relatively short growth time by CSA. Through the use of a characteristic infrared (IR) technique to significantly accelerate local evaporation on the growing interface without changing the bulk growing environment, a concise three-parameter (temperature, pressure, and IR intensity) CSA method to effectively overcome the jamming effect has been developed. Mono- and multiscale inverse opals in a large range of lattice scales can be prepared within a growth time (15-30 min) that is remarkably shorter than the growth times of several hours for previous methods. Scanning electron microscopy images and transmittance spectra demonstrated the superior crystalline and optical qualities of the resulting materials. More importantly, the new method enables optimal conditions for CSA without limitations on sizes and materials of multiple colloids. This strategy not only makes a meaningful advance in the applicability and universality of colloidal crystals and ordered porous materials but also can be an inspiration to the self-assembly systems widely used in many other fields, such as nanotechnology and molecular bioengineering.

Materials selection in mechanical design for microsensors and microactuators

Microsensors and microactuators are vital organs of microelectromechanical systems (MEMS), forming the interfaces between controller and environment. They are usually used for devices ranging in size at sub-millimeter or micrometer level, transforming energy between two or more domains. Presently, most of the materials used in MEMS devices belong to the silicon material system, which is the basis of the integrated circuit industry. However, new techniques are being explored and developed, and the opportunities for MEMS materials selection are getting broader. The present paper tries to apply 'performance index' to select the material best suited to a given application, in the early stage of MEMS design. The selection is based on matching performance characteristics to the requirements. A series of performance indices are given to allow a wide range comparison of materials for several typical sensing and actuating structures, and a rapid identification of candidates for a given task. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effect of surface tension on the mode selection of vertically excited surface waves in a circular cylindrical vessel

Singular perturbation theory of two-time-scale expansions was developed in inviscid fluids to investigate patternforming, structure of the single surface standing wave, and its evolution with time in a circular cylindrical vessel subject to a vertical oscillation. A nonlinear slowly varying complex amplitude equation, which involves a cubic nonlinear term, an external excitation and the influence of surface tension, was derived from the potential flow equation. Surface tension was introduced by the boundary condition of the free surface in an ideal and incompressible fluid. The results show that when forced frequency is low, the effect of surface tension on the mode selection of surface waves is not important. However, when the forced frequency is high, the surface tension cannot be neglected. This manifests that the function of surface tension is to cause the free surface to return to its equilibrium configuration. In addition, the effect of surface tension seems to make the theoretical results much closer to experimental results.