How useful is expert opinion for predicting the distribution of a species within and beyond the region of expertise? A case study using brush-tailed rock-wallabiesPetrogale penicillata

1. Species' distribution modelling relies on adequate data sets to build reliable statistical models with high predictive ability. However, the money spent collecting empirical data might be better spent on management. A less expensive source of species' distribution information is expert opinion. This study evaluates expert knowledge and its source. In particular, we determine whether models built on expert knowledge apply over multiple regions or only within the region where the knowledge was derived. 2. The case study focuses on the distribution of the brush-tailed rock-wallaby Petrogale penicillata in eastern Australia. We brought together from two biogeographically different regions substantial and well-designed field data and knowledge from nine experts. We used a novel elicitation tool within a geographical information system to systematically collect expert opinions. The tool utilized an indirect approach to elicitation, asking experts simpler questions about observable rather than abstract quantities, with measures in place to identify uncertainty and offer feedback. Bayesian analysis was used to combine field data and expert knowledge in each region to determine: (i) how expert opinion affected models based on field data and (ii) how similar expert-informed models were within regions and across regions. 3. The elicitation tool effectively captured the experts' opinions and their uncertainties. Experts were comfortable with the map-based elicitation approach used, especially with graphical feedback. Experts tended to predict lower values of species occurrence compared with field data. 4. Across experts, consensus on effect sizes occurred for several habitat variables. Expert opinion generally influenced predictions from field data. However, south-east Queensland and north-east New South Wales experts had different opinions on the influence of elevation and geology, with these differences attributable to geological differences between these regions. 5. Synthesis and applications. When formulated as priors in Bayesian analysis, expert opinion is useful for modifying or strengthening patterns exhibited by empirical data sets that are limited in size or scope. Nevertheless, the ability of an expert to extrapolate beyond their region of knowledge may be poor. Hence there is significant merit in obtaining information from local experts when compiling species' distribution models across several regions.

Homegardening as a panacea : a case study of South Tarawa

The Republic of Kiribati is a small, highly infertile Pacific Island nation and is one of the most challenging locations to attempt to support dense urban populations. Kiribati, like other nations in the Pacific, faces an urban future where food insecurity, unemployment, waste management and malnutrition will become increasing issues. Homegardening is suggested as one way to address many of these problems. However, the most recent study on agriculture production in urban centres in Kiribati shows that, in general, intensive cultivation of homegardens is not a common practice. This disparity between theory and practice creates an opportunity to re-examine homegardening in Kiribati and, more broadly, in the Pacific. This paper examines the practice of homegardening in urban centres in Kiribati and explores reasons why change has or has not occurred through interviews with homegardeners and government/donor representives. Results show that homegardening has increased significantly in the past five years, largely because of the promotion of homegardens and organic composting systems by donor organisations. While findings further endorse homegardening as an excellent theoretical solution to many of the problems that confront urban settlements in Kiribati and the Pacific, it raises additional questions regarding the continuation of homegarden schemes beyond donor support programmes.

Info-gap theory and robust design of surveillance for invasive species : the case study of Barrow Island

Surveillance for invasive non-indigenous species (NIS) is an integral part of a quarantine system. Estimating the efficiency of a surveillance strategy relies on many uncertain parameters estimated by experts, such as the efficiency of its components in face of the specific NIS, the ability of the NIS to inhabit different environments, and so on. Due to the importance of detecting an invasive NIS within a critical period of time, it is crucial that these uncertainties be accounted for in the design of the surveillance system. We formulate a detection model that takes into account, in addition to structured sampling for incursive NIS, incidental detection by untrained workers. We use info-gap theory for satisficing (not minimizing) the probability of detection, while at the same time maximizing the robustness to uncertainty. We demonstrate the trade-off between robustness to uncertainty, and an increase in the required probability of detection. An empirical example based on the detection of Pheidole megacephala on Barrow Island demonstrates the use of info-gap analysis to select a surveillance strategy.