The oral cancer epidemic in central and eastern Europe.

To monitor recent trends in oral and pharyngeal cancer mortality in 38 European countries, we analyzed data provided by the World Health Organization over the period 1975-2004. Joinpoint analysis was used to identify significant changes in trends. In the European Union (EU), male mortality rates rose by 2.1% per year between 1975 and 1984, by 1.0% between 1984 and 1993, and declined by 1.3% between 1993 and 2004, to reach an overall age-standardized rate of 6.1/100,000 in 2000-2004. Mortality rates were much lower in women, and the rate in the EU rose by 0.9% per year up to 2000, and levelled off to 1.1/100,000 in 2000-2004. In France and Italy - which had the highest rates in the past - male rates have steadily declined during the last two decades (annual percent change, APC=-4.8% in 1998-2004 in France, and -2.6% in 1986-2003 in Italy). Persisting rises were, however, observed in several central and eastern European countries, with exceedingly high rates in Hungary (21.1/100,000; APC=6.9% in 1975-1993 and 1.4% in 1993-2004) and Slovakia (16.9/100,000; APC=0.14% in 1992-2004). In middle aged (35 to 64) men, oral and pharyngeal cancer mortality rates in Hungary (55.2/100,000) and Slovakia (40.8/100,000) were comparable to lung cancer rates in several major European countries. The highest rates for women were in Hungary (3.3/100,000; APC=4.7% in 1975-2004) and Denmark (1.6/100,000; APC=1.3% in 1975-2001). Oral and pharyngeal cancer mortality essentially reflects the different patterns in tobacco smoking and alcohol drinking, including drinking patterns and type of alcohol in central Europe. (c) 2009 UICC.

Body composition interpretation. Contributions of the fat-free mass index and the body fat mass index.

OBJECTIVE: Low and high body mass index (BMI) values have been shown to increase health risks and mortality and result in variations in fat-free mass (FFM) and body fat mass (BF). Currently, there are no published ranges for a fat-free mass index (FFMI; kg/m(2)), a body fat mass index (BFMI; kg/m(2)), and percentage of body fat (%BF). The purpose of this population study was to determine predicted FFMI and BFMI values in subjects with low, normal, overweight, and obese BMI. METHODS: FFM and BF were determined in 2986 healthy white men and 2649 white women, age 15 to 98 y, by a previously validated 50-kHz bioelectrical impedance analysis equation. FFMI, BFMI, and %BF were calculated. RESULTS: FFMI values were 16.7 to 19.8 kg/m(2) for men and 14.6 to 16.8 kg/m(2) for women within the normal BMI ranges. BFMI values were 1.8 to 5.2 kg/m(2) for men and 3.9 to 8.2 kg/m(2) for women within the normal BMI ranges. BFMI values were 8.3 and 11.8 kg/m(2) in men and women, respectively, for obese BMI (>30 kg/m(2)). Normal ranges for %BF were 13.4 to 21.7 and 24.6 to 33.2 for men and women, respectively. CONCLUSION: BMI alone cannot provide information about the respective contribution of FFM or fat mass to body weight. This study presents FFMI and BFMI values that correspond to low, normal, overweight, and obese BMIs. FFMI and BFMI provide information about body compartments, regardless of height.

Who is at low risk for cardiovascular disease?: an assessment of different definitions

Purpose: to assess the prevalence and trends of low cardiovascular risk factor (RF) profile in the Swiss population according to different definitions. Methods: Population-based cross-sectional study of 6170 subjects (3241 women) aged 35-75 years living in Lausanne, Switzerland. Trends were assessed using data from the Swiss MONICA population surveys conducted in 1984-6 (N = 3300), 1988-9 (N = 3331) and 1992-3 (N = 3133) and restricted to the same age group. Seven different definitions of low RF profile were used. Results: prevalence of low RF profile varied between 6.5% (95% confidence interval: 5.9-7.1) and 9.7% (9.0-10.5) depending on the definition used (see fig. 1). The prevalence was inversely related to the number of criteria used and higher than in other countries. Irrespective of the definition used, the prevalence of low RF profile was higher in women and in physically active participants, and decreased with increasing age or in the presence of a family history of cardiovascular disease. The prevalence of low RF profile increased from 3.8% (3.1- 4.5) in 1984-6 to 6.7% (6.1-7.3) in 2003-6; using another definition, the results were 5.9% (5.1-6.8) and 9.7% (9.0-10.5), respectively (see fig. 2). Conclusion: the prevalence of low RF profile varies according to the criteria used; this prevalence is relatively high and increasing in the Swiss population, which might partly explain the low and decreasing trend in cardiovascular mortality rates.

New Early to Middle Triassic U-Pb ages from South China: Calibration with ammonoid biochronozones and implications for the timing of the Triassic biotic recovery

New zircon U-Pb ages are proposed for late Early and Middle Triassic volcanic ash layers from the Luolou and Baifeng formations (northwestern Guangxi, South China). These ages are based on analyses of single, thermally annealed and chemically abraded zircons. Calibration with ammonoid ages indicate a 250.6 +/- 0.5 Ma age for the early Spathian Tirolites/Columbites beds, a 248.1 +/- 0.4 Ma age for the late Spathian Neopopanoceras haugi Zone, a 246.9 +/- 0.4 Ma age for the early middle Anisian Acrochordiceras hyatti Zone, and a 244.6 +/- 0.5 Ma age for the late middle Anisian Balatonites shoshonensis Zone. The new dates and previously published U-Pb ages indicate a duration of ca. 3 my for the Spathian, and minimal durations of 4.5 +/- 0.6 my for the Early Triassic and of 6.6+0.7/-0.9 my for the Anisian. The new Spathian dates are in a better agreement with a 252.6 +/- 0.2 Ma age than with a 251.4 +/- 0.3 Ma age for the Permian-Triassic boundary. These dates also highlight the extremely uneven duration of the four Early Triassic substages (Griesbachian, Dienerian, Smithian, and Spathian), of which the Spathian exceeds half of the duration of the entire Early Triassic. The simplistic assumption of equal duration of the four Early Triassic subdivisions is no longer tenable for the reconstruction of recovery patterns following the end Permian mass extinction. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Lung cancer mortality in European men: Trends and predictions.

Lung cancer mortality in men from the European Union (EU) peaked in the late 1980s at an age-standardised (world standard population) rate over 53/100,000 and declined subsequently to reach 44/100,000 in the early 2000s. To provide a comprehensive picture of recent trends in male lung cancer mortality in Europe, we analyzed available data from the World Health Organization up to 2009 and predicted future rates to 2015. Lung cancer mortality rates in EU men continued to fall over recent years, to reach a value of 41.1/100,000 in 2005-2009. The fall was similar at all-ages and in middle-aged men (less than 2% per year over most recent years), but was appreciably larger in young men (aged 20-44years, over 5% per year). A favourable trend is thus likely to be maintained in the foreseeable future, although the predicted overall EU rate in 2015 is still over 35/100,000, i.e., higher than the US rate in 2007 (33.7/100,000). Over most recent calendar years, overall male lung cancer rates were around 35-40/100,000 in western Europe, as compared to over 50/100,000 in central and eastern Europe. Within western Europe, lung cancer rates were lower in northern countries such as Sweden, but also Finland and the UK (below 30/100,000), where the tobacco-related epidemic started earlier and rates have long been declining, whereas mortality was high in Belgium (51.6), France (42.3), the Netherlands and Spain (around 43.0), where the epidemic started later but is persisting. Widespread measures for smoking control and cessation in middle-aged European men, i.e., in the generations where smoking prevalence used to be high, would lead to appreciable reductions in male lung cancer mortality in the near future. This is particularly urgent in central and eastern European countries.

Low prevalence of behavioural and emotional problems among Swiss paediatric patients with inflammatory bowel disease.

OBJECTIVES: Whether behavioural and emotional maladjustment is more prevalent in children with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) than in healthy controls remains controversial. The aim of this study was to assess paediatric IBD patients for problems with emotional and behavioural adjustment and to examine associations with clinical and demographic variables. METHODS: Data from paediatric patients with IBD enrolled in the Swiss IBD Cohort Study and the results of both the parent-rated Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) and the self-reported Child Depression Inventory (CDI) were analysed. Of the 148 registered patients, 126 had at least one questionnaire completed and were included. RESULTS: The mean age of 71 patients with Crohn's disease (44 males, 27 females) was 13.4 years, and 12.8 years for the 55 patients with ulcerative or indeterminate colitis. The mean duration of disease was 1.2 and 2.7 years, respectively. The total score of the SDQ was abnormal in 11.4% of cases compared to 10% in the normal population. Abnormal sub-scores were found in 20.2% of subjects for the domain of emotional problems and in 17.1% for problems with peers. The total CDI T score indicated a significantly lower prevalence of clinical depression in IBD patients than in normal youth. No correlation between the total SDQ scores or the CDI T scores and gender, type or duration of IBD, inflammatory markers or disease scores was found. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of problems with behavioural and emotional adjustment among Swiss paediatric IBD patients is low and comparable to that of the normal population.

Geological transect across the Northwestern Himalaya in eastern Ladakh and Lahul (A model for the continental collision of India and Asia)

The detailed geological mapping and structural study of a complete transect across the northwestern Himalaya allow to describe the tectonic evolution of the north Indian continental margin during the Tethys ocean opening and the Himalayan Orogeny. The Late Paleozoic Tethys rifting is associated with several tectonomagmatic events. In Upper Lahul and SE Zanskar, this extensional phase is recorded by Lower Carboniferous synsedimentary transtensional faults, a Lower Permian stratigraphic unconformity, a Lower Permian granitic intrusion and middle Permian basaltic extrusions (Panjal Traps). In eastern Ladakh, a Permian listric normal fault is also related to this phase. The scarcity of synsedimentary faults and the gradual increase of the Permian syn-rift sediment thickness towards the NE suggest a flexural type margin. The collision of India and Asia is characterized by a succession of contrasting orogenic phases. South of the Suture Zone, the initiation of the SW vergent Nyimaling-Tsarap Nappe corresponds to an early phase of continental underthrusting. To the S, in Lahul, an opposite underthrusting within the Indian plate is recorded by the NE vergent Tandi Syncline. This structure is associated with the newly defined Shikar Beh Nappe, now partly eroded, which is responsible for the high grade (amphibolite facies) regional metamorphism of South Lahul. The main thrusting of the Nyimaling-Tsarap Nappe followed the formation of the Shikar Beh Nappe. The Nyimaling-Tsarap Nappe developed by ductile shear of the upper part of the subducted Indian continental margin and is responsible for the progressive regional metamorphism of SE Zanskar, reaching amphibolite facies below the frontal part of the nappe, near Sarchu. In Upper Lahul, the frontal parts of the Nyimaling-Tsarap and Shikar Beh nappes are separated by a zone of low grade metamorphic rocks (pumpellyite-actinolite facies to lower greenschist facies). At high structural level, the Nyimaling-Tsarap Nappe is characterized by imbricate structures, which grade into a large ductile shear zone with depth. The related crustal shortening is about 87 km. The root zone and the frontal part of this nappe have been subsequently affected by two zones of dextral transpression and underthrusting: the Nyimaling Shear Zone and the Sarchu Shear Zone. These shear zones are interpreted as consequences of the counterclockwise rotation of the continental underthrusting direction of India relative to Asia, which occurred some 45 and 36 Ma ago, according to plate tectonic models. Later, a phase of NE vergent `'backfolding'' developed on these two zones of dextral transpression, creating isoclinal folds in SE Zanskar and more open folds in the Nyimaling Dome and in the Indus Molasse sediments. During a late stage of the Himalayan Orogeny, the frontal part of the Nyimaling-Tsarap Nappe underwent an extension of about 15 km. This phase is represented by two types of structures, responsible for the tectonic unroofing of the amphibolite facies rocks of the Sarchu area: the Sarchu high angle Normal Fault, cutting a first set of low angle normal faults, which have been created by reactivation of older thrust planes related to the Nyimaling-Tsarap Nappe.

Do institutions and culture matter for business cycles?

We examine the relationship between institutions, culture and cyclical fluctuations for a sampleof 45 European, Middle Eastern and North African countries. Better governance is associated withshorter and less severe contractions and milder expansions. Certain cultural traits, such as lack ofacceptance of power distance and individualism, are also linked business cycle features. Businesscycle synchronization is tightly related to similarities in the institutional environment. Mediterraneancountries conform to these general tendencies.

The effects of structural reforms on productivity and profitability enhancing reallocation: Evidence from Colombia

Estimates for the U.S. suggest that at least in some sectors productivity enhancing reallocationis the dominant factor in accounting for producitivity growth. An open question, particularlyrelevant for developing countries, is whether reallocation is always productivity enhancing. Itmay be that imperfect competition or other barriers to competitive environments imply that thereallocation process is not fully e?cient in these countries. Using a unique plant-levellongitudinal dataset for Colombia for the period 1982-1998, we explore these issues byexamining the interaction between market allocation, and productivity and profitability.Moreover, given the important trade, labor and financial market reforms in Colombia during theearly 1990's, we explore whether and how the contribution of reallocation changed over theperiod of study. Our data permit measurement of plant-level quantities and prices. Takingadvantage of the rich structure of our price data, we propose a sequential mehodology to estimateproductivity and demand shocks at the plant level. First, we estimate total factor productivity(TFP) with plant-level physical output data, where we use downstream demand to instrumentinputs. We then turn to estimating demand shocks and mark-ups with plant-level price data, usingTFP to instrument for output in the inversedemand equation. We examine the evolution of thedistributions of TFP and demand shocks in response to the market reforms in the 1990's. We findthat market reforms are associated with rising overall productivity that is largely driven byreallocation away from low- and towards highproductivity businesses. In addition, we find thatthe allocation of activity across businesses is less driven by demand factors after reforms. Wefind that the increase in aggregate productivity post-reform is entirely accounted for by theimproved allocation of activity.

Country asymmetries, endogenous product choice and the speed of trade liberalization

In a world with two countries which differ in size, we study theimpact of (the speed of) trade liberalization on firms' profitsand total welfare of the countries involved. Firms correctlyanticipate the pace of trade liberalization and take it intoaccount when deciding on their product choices, which areendogenously determined at the beginning of the game. Competitionin the marketplace then occurs either on quantities or on prices.As long as the autarkic phase continues, local firms are nationalmonopolists. When trade liberalization occurs, firms compete in aninternational duopoly. We analyze trade effects by using twodifferent models of product differentiation. Across all thespecifications adopted (and independently of the price v. quantitycompetition hypothesis), total welfare always unambiguously riseswith the speed of trade liberalization: Possible losses by firmsare always outweighed by consumers' gains, which come under theform of lower prices, enlarged variety of higher average qualitiesavailable. The effect on profits depends on the type of industryanalyzed. Two results in particular seem to be worth of mention.With vertical product differentiation and fixed costs of qualityimprovements, the expected size of the market faced by the firmsdetermines the incentive to invest in quality. The longer the periodof autarky, the lower the possibility that the firm from the smallcountry would be producing the high quality and be the leader in theinternational market when it opens. On the contrary, when trade opensimmediately, national markets do not play any role and firms fromdifferent countries have the same opportunity to become the leader.Hence, immediate trade liberalization might be in the interest ofproducers in the small country. In general, the lower the size of thesmall country, the more likely its firm will gain from tradeliberalization. Losses from the small country firm can arise when itis relegated to low quality good production and the domestic marketsize is not very small. With horizontal product differentiation (thehomogeneous good case being a limit case of it when costs ofdifferentiation tend to infinity), investments in differentiationbenefit both firms in equal manner. Firms from the small country do notrun the risk of being relegated to a lower competitive position undertrade. As a result, they would never lose from it. Instead, firms fromthe large country may still incur losses from the opening of trade whenthe market expansion effect is low (i.e. when the country is very largerelative to the other).

Bubbles and capital flows

This paper presents a stylized model of international trade and asset price bubbles. Its central insight is that bubbles tend to appear and expand in countries where productivity is low relative to the rest of the world. These bubbles absorb local savings, eliminating inefficient investments and liberating resources that are in part used to invest in high productivity countries. Through this channel, bubbles act as a substitute for international capital flows, improving the international allocation of investment and reducing rate-of-return differentials across countries. This view of asset price bubbles could eventually provide a simple account of some real world phenomenae that have been difficult to model before, such as the recurrence and depth of financial crises or their puzzling tendency to propagate across countries.

Hypothesis on immigration and welfare

The number of hypothesis trying to explain which are the reasons behind the decision to migrate to work into a developed country are diverse and at the same time, difficult to test due to the multiplicity of factors which affect it. This papers attempts to move forward trying to disentangle which are the socio-economic factors that explain the differences in the figures of immigrants in the OECD countries. We show empirical evidence about the determinants of the migratory flows to 17 OECD countries from 65 countries in the 1980-2000 period. Our results reveal the importance to differentiate the inflows composition by at least income in the origin countries. Thus, regarding inflows from non-high-income countries, the results suggest that there is a pull effect from monetary and not real income, and then, the welfare magnets hypothesis should be rejected. This group reacts more to the migratory policy than the inflows coming from high-income countries, although those policies designed to slow down the inflows have not been able, in the aggregate, to reduce them.

Who is at low risk for cardiovascular disease? An assessment of different definitions

Purpose: To assess the prevalence and trends of low cardiovascular risk factor (RF) profile in the Swiss population according to different definitions. Methods: Population-based cross-sectional study of 6170 subjects (3241 women) aged 35-75 years living in Lausanne, Switzerland. Trends were assessed using data from the Swiss MONICA population surveys conducted in 1984-6 (N=3300), 1988-9 (N=3331) and 1992-3 (N=3133) and restricted to the same age group. Seven different definitions of low RF profile were used. Results: Prevalence of low RF profile varied between 6.5% (95% confidence interval: 5.9-7.1) and 9.7% (9.0-10.5) depending on the definition used. The prevalence was inversely related to the number of criteria used and higher than in other countries. Irrespective of the definition used, the prevalence of low RF profile was higher in women and in physically active participants, and decreased with increasing age or in the presence of a family history of cardiovascular disease (table). The prevalence of low RF profile increased from 3.8% (3.1-4.5) in 1984-6 to 6.7% (6.1-7.3) in 2003-6; using another definition, the results were 5.9% (5.1-6.8) and 9.7% (9.0-10.5), respectively. Conclusion: The prevalence of low RF profile varies according to the criteria used; this prevalence is relatively high and increasing in the Swiss population, which might partly explain the low and decreasing trend in cardiovascular mortality rates.

Weight status, body image and bullying among adolescents in the Seychelles.

We investigated the relationship between being bullied and measured body weight and perceived body weight among adolescents of a middle-income sub Saharan African country. Our data originated from the Global School-based Health Survey, which targets adolescents aged 13-15 years. Student weights and heights were measured before administrating the questionnaire which included questions about personal data, health behaviors and being bullied. Standard criteria were used to assess thinness, overweight and obesity. Among 1,006 participants who had complete data, 16.5% (95%CI 13.3-20.2) reported being bullied ≥ 3 days during the past 30 days; 13.4% were thin, 16.8% were overweight and 7.6% were obese. Categories of actual weight and of perceived weight correlated only moderately (Spearman correlation coefficient 0.37 for boys and 0.57 for girls; p < 0.001). In univariate analysis, both actual obesity (OR 1.76; p = 0.051) and perception of high weight (OR 1.63 for "slightly overweight"; OR 2.74 for "very overweight", both p < 0.05) were associated with being bullied. In multivariate analysis, ORs for categories of perceived overweight were virtually unchanged while ORs for actual overweight and obesity were substantially attenuated, suggesting a substantial role of perceived weight in the association with being bullied. Actual underweight and perceived thinness also tended to be associated with being bullied, although not significantly. Our findings suggest that more research attention be given to disentangling the significant association between body image, overweight and bullying among adolescents. Further studies in diverse populations are warranted.

Psychophysiological activation during preparation, performance, and recovery in high- and low-anxious music students

The present study provides a comprehensive view of (a) the time dynamics of the psychophysiological responding in performing music students (n = 66) before, during, and after a private and a public performance and (b) the moderating effect of music performance anxiety (MPA). Heart rate (HR), minute ventilation (VE), and all affective and somatic self-report variables increased in the public session compared to the private session. Furthermore, the activation of all variables was stronger during the performances than before or after. Differences between phases were larger in the public than in the private session for HR, VE, total breath duration, anxiety, and trembling. Furthermore, while higher MPA scores were associated with higher scores and with larger changes between sessions and phases for self-reports, this association was less coherent for physiological variables. Finally, self-reported intra-individual performance improvements or deteriorations were not associated with MPA. This study makes a novel contribution by showing how the presence of an audience influences low- and high-anxious musicians' psychophysiological responding before, during and after performing. Overall, the findings are more consistent with models of anxiety that emphasize the importance of cognitive rather than physiological factors in MPA.