Aspects of migration, size structure and mortality of juvenile Nile perch in the Mwanza Gulf of Lake Victoria

A detailed study of the early life of fishes forms one of the very important aspects with respect to recruitment mechanism and proper uneterstanding of the dynamics leading to sustainance of fish populations. It should be the central theme of the fisheries biologist and managers to extract the bilogical information relevant to the proper understanding of this part of the population. A number of studies in the Mwanza gulf and Lake Victoria have emphasized the need to monitor the fishery by conducting observations of stock size, migration, catch effort data and growth of big specimen (Acere 1981, Goudsward et al 1984, Asila. Ogari 1988 and Okemwa 1984). The present paper discusses the preliminary information on the size structure, mortality and migration of juvenile Nile perch. The long term objectives of the programme is aimed at describing the size structure, growth, mortality, recruitment pattern and population dynamics of the Nile perch up to 30 cm total length in the, Mwanza Gulf.

Dissecting signaling pathways that control glia migration in the developing Drosophila retina

The function of a complex nervous system relies on an intricate interaction between neurons and glial cells. However, as glial cells are generally born distant from the place where they settle, molecular cues are important to direct their migration. Glial cell migration is important in both normal development and disease, thus current research in the laboratory has been focused on dissecting regulatory events underlying that crucial process. With this purpose, the Drosophila eye imaginal disc has been used as a model. In response to neuronal photoreceptor differentiation, glial cells migrate from the CNS into the eye disc where they act to correctly wrap axons. To ensure proper development, attractive and repulsive signals must coordinate glial cell migration. Importantly, one of these signals is Bnl, a Fibroblast Growth Factor (FGF) ligand expressed by retinal progenitor cells that was suggested to act as a non-autonomous negative regulator of excessive glial cell migration (overmigration) by binding and activating the Btl receptor expressed by glial cells. Through the experimental results described in chapter 3 we gained a detailed insight into the function of bnl in eye disc growth, photoreceptor development, and glia migration. Interestingly, we did not find a direct correlation between the defects on the ongoing photoreceptors and the glia overmigration phenotype; however, bnl knockdown caused apoptosis of eye progenitor cells what was strongly correlated with glia migration defects. Glia overmigration due to Bnl down-regulation in eye progenitor cells was rescued by inhibiting the pro-apoptotic genes or caspases activity, as well as, by depleting JNK or Dp53 function in retinal progenitor cells. Thus, we suggest a cross-talk between those developmental signals in the control of glia migration at a distance. Importantly, these results suggest that Bnl does not control glial migration in the eye disc exclusively through its ability to bind and activate its receptor Btl in glial cells. We also discuss possible biological roles for the glia overmigration in the bnl knockdown background. Previous results in the lab showed an interaction between dMyc, a master regulator of tissue growth, and Dpp, a Transforming Growth Factor-β important for retinal patterning and for accurate glia migration into the eye disc. Thus, we became interested in understanding putative relationships between Bnl and dMyc. In chapter 4, we show that they positively cooperate in order to ensure proper development of the eye disc. This work highlights the importance of the FGF signaling in eye disc development and reveals a signaling network where a range of extra- and intra-cellular signals cooperate to non-autonomously control glial cell migration. Therefore, such inter-relations could be important in other Drosophila cellular contexts, as well as in vertebrate tissue development.

Two novel COLVI long chains in zebrafish that are essential for muscle development

Collagen VI (COLVI), a protein ubiquitously expressed in connective tissues, is crucial for structural integrity, cellular adhesion, migration and survival. Six different genes are recognized in mammalians, encoding six COLVI-chains that assemble as two ‘short’ (α1, α2) and one ‘long’ chain (theoretically any one of α3–6). In humans, defects in the most widely expressed heterotrimer (α123), due to mutations in the COL6A1-3 genes, cause a heterogeneous group of neuromuscular disorders, collectively termed COLVI-related muscle disorders. Little is known about the function(s) of the recently described α4-6 chains and no mutations have been detected yet. In this study, we characterized two novel COLVI long chains in zebrafish that are most homologous to the mammalian α4 chain; therefore, we named the corresponding genes col6a4a and col6a4b. These orthologues represent ancestors of the mammalian Col6a4-6 genes. By in situ hybridization and RT-qPCR, we unveiled a distinctive expression kinetics for col6a4b, compared with the other col6a genes. Using morpholino antisense oligonucleotides targeting col6a4a, col6a4b and col6a2, we modelled partial and complete COLVI deficiency, respectively. All morphant embryos presented altered muscle structure and impaired motility. While apoptosis was not drastically increased, autophagy induction was defective in all morphants. Furthermore, motoneuron axon growth was abnormal in these morphants. Importantly, some phenotypical differences emerged between col6a4a and col6a4b morphants, suggesting only partial functional redundancy. Overall, our results further confirm the importance of COLVI in zebrafish muscle development and may provide important clues for potential human phenotypes associated with deficiency of the recently described COLVI-chains.

Guided Migration and Collective Behavior: Cell Dynamics during Cancer Progression

This dissertation focuses on gaining understanding of cell migration and collective behavior through a combination of experiment, analysis, and modeling techniques. Cell migration is a ubiquitous process that plays an important role during embryonic development and wound healing as well as in diseases like cancer, which is a particular focus of this work. As cancer cells become increasingly malignant, they acquire the ability to migrate away from the primary tumor and spread throughout the body to form metastatic tumors. During this process, changes in gene expression and the surrounding tumor environment can lead to changes in cell migration characteristics. In this thesis, I analyze how cells are guided by the texture of their environment and how cells cooperate with their neighbors to move collectively. The emergent properties of collectively moving groups are a particular focus of this work as collective cell dynamics are known to change in diseases such as cancer. The internal machinery for cell migration involves polymerization of the actin cytoskeleton to create protrusions that---in coordination with retraction of the rear of the cell---lead to cell motion. This actin machinery has been previously shown to respond to the topography of the surrounding surface, leading to guided migration of amoeboid cells. Here we show that epithelial cells on nanoscale ridge structures also show changes in the morphology of their cytoskeletons; actin is found to align with the ridge structures. The migration of the cells is also guided preferentially along the ridge length. These ridge structures are on length scales similar to those found in tumor microenvironments and as such provide a system for studying the response of the cells' internal migration machinery to physiologically relevant topographical cues. In addition to sensing surface topography, individual cells can also be influenced by the pushing and pulling of neighboring cells. The emergent properties of collectively migrating cells show interesting dynamics and are relevant for cancer progression, but have been less studied than the motion of individual cells. We use Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) to extract the motion of a collectively migrating cell sheet from time lapse images. The resulting flow fields allow us to analyze collective behavior over multiple length and time scales. To analyze the connection between individual cell properties and collective migration behavior, we compare experimental flow fields with the migration of simulated cell groups. Our collective migration metrics allow for a quantitative comparison between experimental and simulated results. This comparison shows that tissue-scale decreases in collective behavior can result from changes in individual cell activity without the need to postulate the existence of subpopulations of leader cells or global gradients. In addition to tissue-scale trends in collective behavior, the migration of cell groups includes localized dynamic features such as cell rearrangements. An individual cell may smoothly follow the motion of its neighbors (affine motion) or move in a more individualistic manner (non-affine motion). By decomposing individual motion into both affine and non-affine components, we measure cell rearrangements within a collective sheet. Finally, finite-time Lyapunov exponent (FTLE) values capture the stretching of the flow field and reflect its chaotic character. Applying collective migration analysis techniques to experimental data on both malignant and non-malignant human breast epithelial cells reveals differences in collective behavior that are not found from analyzing migration speeds alone. Non-malignant cells show increased cooperative motion on long time scales whereas malignant cells remain uncooperative as time progresses. Combining multiple analysis techniques also shows that these two cell types differ in their response to a perturbation of cell-cell adhesion through the molecule E-cadherin. Non-malignant MCF10A cells use E-cadherin for short time coordination of collective motion, yet even with decreased E-cadherin expression, the cells remain coordinated over long time scales. In contrast, the migration behavior of malignant and invasive MCF10CA1a cells, which already shows decreased collective dynamics on both time scales, is insensitive to the change in E-cadherin expression.

Guided Migration and Collective Behavior: Cell Dynamics during Cancer Progression

This dissertation focuses on gaining understanding of cell migration and collective behavior through a combination of experiment, analysis, and modeling techniques. Cell migration is a ubiquitous process that plays an important role during embryonic development and wound healing as well as in diseases like cancer, which is a particular focus of this work. As cancer cells become increasingly malignant, they acquire the ability to migrate away from the primary tumor and spread throughout the body to form metastatic tumors. During this process, changes in gene expression and the surrounding tumor environment can lead to changes in cell migration characteristics. In this thesis, I analyze how cells are guided by the texture of their environment and how cells cooperate with their neighbors to move collectively. The emergent properties of collectively moving groups are a particular focus of this work as collective cell dynamics are known to change in diseases such as cancer. The internal machinery for cell migration involves polymerization of the actin cytoskeleton to create protrusions that---in coordination with retraction of the rear of the cell---lead to cell motion. This actin machinery has been previously shown to respond to the topography of the surrounding surface, leading to guided migration of amoeboid cells. Here we show that epithelial cells on nanoscale ridge structures also show changes in the morphology of their cytoskeletons; actin is found to align with the ridge structures. The migration of the cells is also guided preferentially along the ridge length. These ridge structures are on length scales similar to those found in tumor microenvironments and as such provide a system for studying the response of the cells' internal migration machinery to physiologically relevant topographical cues. In addition to sensing surface topography, individual cells can also be influenced by the pushing and pulling of neighboring cells. The emergent properties of collectively migrating cells show interesting dynamics and are relevant for cancer progression, but have been less studied than the motion of individual cells. We use Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) to extract the motion of a collectively migrating cell sheet from time lapse images. The resulting flow fields allow us to analyze collective behavior over multiple length and time scales. To analyze the connection between individual cell properties and collective migration behavior, we compare experimental flow fields with the migration of simulated cell groups. Our collective migration metrics allow for a quantitative comparison between experimental and simulated results. This comparison shows that tissue-scale decreases in collective behavior can result from changes in individual cell activity without the need to postulate the existence of subpopulations of leader cells or global gradients. In addition to tissue-scale trends in collective behavior, the migration of cell groups includes localized dynamic features such as cell rearrangements. An individual cell may smoothly follow the motion of its neighbors (affine motion) or move in a more individualistic manner (non-affine motion). By decomposing individual motion into both affine and non-affine components, we measure cell rearrangements within a collective sheet. Finally, finite-time Lyapunov exponent (FTLE) values capture the stretching of the flow field and reflect its chaotic character. Applying collective migration analysis techniques to experimental data on both malignant and non-malignant human breast epithelial cells reveals differences in collective behavior that are not found from analyzing migration speeds alone. Non-malignant cells show increased cooperative motion on long time scales whereas malignant cells remain uncooperative as time progresses. Combining multiple analysis techniques also shows that these two cell types differ in their response to a perturbation of cell-cell adhesion through the molecule E-cadherin. Non-malignant MCF10A cells use E-cadherin for short time coordination of collective motion, yet even with decreased E-cadherin expression, the cells remain coordinated over long time scales. In contrast, the migration behavior of malignant and invasive MCF10CA1a cells, which already shows decreased collective dynamics on both time scales, is insensitive to the change in E-cadherin expression.

Legal Framework for Cross-Regional Networks: The Case of Services and Migration

Paper prepared by Marion Panizzon and Charlotte Sieber-Gasser for the International Conference on the Political Economy of Liberalising Trade in Services, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, 14-15 June 2010 Recent literature has shed light on the economic potential of cross-border networks. These networks, consisting of expatriates and their acquaintances from abroad and at home, provide the basis for the creation of cross-border value added chains and therewith the means for turning brain drain into brain circulation. Both aspects are potentially valuable for economic growth in the developing world. Unilateral co-development policies operating through co-funding of expatriate business ventures, but also bilateral agreements liberalising circular migration for a limited set of per-sons testify to the increasing awareness of governments about the potential, which expatriate networks hold for economic growth in developing countries. Whereas such punctual efforts are valuable, viewed from a long term perspective, these top-down, government mandated Diaspora stimulation programs, will not replace, this paper argues, the market-driven liberalisation of infrastructure and other services in developing countries. Nor will they carry, in the case of circular labour migration, the political momentum to liberalise labour market admission for those non-nationals, who will eventually emerge as the future transnational entrepreneurs. It will take a combination of mode 4 and infrastructure services openings-cum regulation for countries at both sides of the spectrum to provide the basis and precondition for transnational business and entrepreneurial networks to emerge and translate into cross-border, value added production chains. Two key issues are of particular relevance in this context: (i) the services sector, especially in infrastructure, tends to suffer from inefficiencies, particularly in developing countries, and (ii) labour migration, a highly complex issue, still faces disproportionately rigid barriers despite well-documented global welfare gains. Both are hindrances for emerging markets to fully take advantage of the potential of these cross-border networks. Adapting the legal framework for enhancing the regulatory and institutional frameworks for services trade, especially in infrastructure services sectors (ISS) and labour migration could provide the incentives necessary for brain circulation and strengthen cross-border value added chains by lowering transaction costs. This paper analyses the shortfalls of the global legal framework – the shallow status quo of GATS commitments in ISS and mode 4 particular – in relation to stimulating brain circulation and the creation of cross-border value added chains in emerging markets. It highlights the necessity of adapting the legal framework, both on the global and the regional level, to stimulate broader and wider market access in the four key ISS sectors (telecommunications, transport, professional and financial services) in developing countries, as domestic supply capacity, global competitiveness and economic diversification in ISS sectors are necessary for mobilising expatriate re-turns, both physical and virtual. The paper argues that industrialised, labour receiving countries need to offer mode 4 market access to wider categories of persons, especially to students, graduate trainees and young professionals from abroad. Further-more, free trade in semi-finished products and mode 4 market access are crucial for the creation of cross-border value added chains across the developing world. Finally, the paper discusses on the basis of a case study on Jordan why the key features of trade agreements, which promote circular migration and the creation of cross-border value added chains, consist of trade liberalisation in services and liberal migration policies.

Seasonal differences in migration patterns of a soaring bird in relation to environmental conditions: a multi-scale approach

Many studies suggest that migratory birds are expected to travel more quickly during spring, when they are en route to the breeding grounds, in order to ensure a high-quality territory. Using data recorded by means of Global Positioning System satellite tags, we analysed at three temporal scales (hourly, daily and overall journey) seasonal differences in migratory performance of the booted eagle (Aquila pennata), a soaring raptor migrating between Europe and tropical Africa, taking into account environmental conditions such as wind, thermal uplift and day length. Unexpectedly, booted eagles showed higher travel rates (hourly speed, daily distance, overall migration speed and overall straightness) during autumn, even controlling for abiotic factors, probably thanks to higher hourly speeds, more straight routes and less non-travelling days during autumn. Tailwinds were the main environmental factor affecting daily distance. During spring, booted eagles migrated more quickly when flying over the Sahara desert. Our results raise new questions about which ecological and behavioural reasons promote such unexpected faster speeds in autumn and not during spring and how events occurring in very different regions can affect migratory performance, interacting with landscape characteristics, weather conditions and flight behaviour.

37° Sur a 19° Norte: Fotografía contemporánea de Australia

Curatorial considerations, aims and objectives:The title for this exhibition (37 ° South to 19 ° North) refers to the Latitude of Melbourne, Australia and Cuernavaca, Mexico.My curatorial objective for making such a reference to the geographical was to invoke a sense of both distance and connection between the two locations of Australia and Mexico and to also create a sense of sharing, not only between our distant landscapes and cultures but also between the feelings and emotions that we all experience in response to the places in which we live out the moments which make up our daily lives.In developing this project I considered the work of more than 35 contemporary Australian photographers and finally selected 15 photographers (including myself). Most of these artists have or have had close connection to Melbourne and to the southern/eastern line of Australian continent. The final selection ranged from Hobart to Maroochydore and one artist who had lived in Melbourne for many years but was now living in Mexico. These photographers (and the specific works) were selected because their long term creative practice captures a sense of location (place and space) with a deep introspective sensibility which I feel offers a viewer a personal and softly spoken vision of some particular aspect of an Australian location, be that exterior landscape or interior place and a sense of unique connection to such places. These images are not documents but rather representations of feelings, stories, memories and dreams which emerge in the milieu of our inhabitants.In selecting the works, careful consideration was also given to diversity of approaches to photographic practice in conjunction to thematic content. Formats and media included black and white, pin hole photography, toy camera, large format (both 4” x 5” and 10”x 8”), phone camera, various digital camera images and other experimental approaches. The local art scene in Cuernavaca is very strong and there is a strong interest in photography. This is partially due to the number of local arts schools and universities which offer studies in photography as well as the political dimension regarding Mexican art in general - as a tool of both political media, reportage and documentary work, photography is a significant medium for many of the people who would be visiting the exhibition. I therefore felt it was important to address the diversity of approaches to the medium which are currently being explored by Australian practitioners.The City Museum of Cuernavaca provided two large walls and some smaller sections of side walls on both the grounds level and the upper level of the main museum galleries for exhibition.The works were arranged with a simple thematic structure. Top level, left to right, then bottom level, left to right starting with images which presented a sense of wilderness and landscape (which were also quite abstract and reductive) to more representational landscape images moving to landscape with small figures (people) emerging within the images (Ash Kerr) to landscapes with larger figures and the emerging presence of man-made elements to urban landscapes and then to interior urban scapes and finally to interior locations with people and finally finishing on the metaphorical image by Harry Nankin of Bogong Moths and the politics of climate change. (It is also interesting to note that the migration path of the Bongong moth matches well the distribution of the artists selected for this project)Broadly speaking the images started outside with broad landscape to intimate interior locations. With these works a great deal of personal content from each photographer was presented. Most artists chose to present 3 large format images while some only presented 2 images. Other graphic and visual elements were considered in the final placement of the images.It must also be noted that the artists selected ranged broadly from very highly established and significant local artists to mid-career/younger establishing artist to some lesser known and emerging artists. From a curatorial perspective I feel this is offers the possibility of what I shall term, a more balanced representation of the local Australian practice and it provides a context in which both established and emerging artists / works must engage on a dialogue, within the exhibition. I believe it also placing the curatorial premise on the strength of the work rather than on whom the artists are and their status. It also supports the younger emerging artists and provides a less formal and predictable outcome for the established artists and for as a collective presentation as a whole.

Is there long-run equilibrium in the house prices of Australian capital cities?

In order to explore the long-run equilibrium in the house prices of different cities, studies on house price convergence have been conducted by a number of researchers. However, the majority of previous studies have neglected the effects of spatial heterogeneity and autocorrelation on house prices. This research improves on the investigation of house price convergence by developing a spatio-temporal autoregressive model based on a framework of panel regression methods. Both spatial heterogeneity and autocorrelation of house prices in different cities are taken into account. Geographical distance and the scale of development of the urban housing market are used to construct temporal varying spatial measurements. The spatio-temporal model is then applied to investigate the long-run equilibrium in the house prices of Australian capital cities. The results confirm that house prices in Sydney approach a steady state in the long run, whereas house prices in Brisbane, Canberra, Melbourne and Perth are able to do with lower confidence. However, little evidence supports the existence of long-run equilibrium in the house prices of Adelaide, Darwin and Hobart.

Engineering education anywhere, anytime: from distance education to blended learning at Deakin University Australia

In 2005 the Sloan Consortium called for engineering education to be available "anywhere, anytime."* Increasing numbers of engineering departments are interesting in offering their programs by means of online learning. These schools grapple with several difficulties and issues associated with wholly online learning: course structure, communication with students, delivery of course material, delivery of exams, accreditation, equity between on-campus and off-campusstudents, and especially the delivery of practical training. Deakin University faced these same challenges when it commenced teaching undergraduate engineering via distance education in the early 1990's. It now offers a fully accredited Bachelor of Engineering degree in both on-campus and off-campus modes, with majors that include civil,mechanical, electrical/electronics, and mechatronics/robotics.This presentation describes Deakin's unique off-campus delivery, students, curricula, approaches to practical work, and solutions to the problems mentioned above. Attendees will experience how Deakin Engineering delivers course materials, communicates with off-campus students, runs off-campus classes, and even delivers lab experience to students living thousands of miles away from the home campus. On display will be experimental lab kits, video presentations, student projects, and online broadcasts of freshman lab experiments. Participants will have the opportunity to see some of these resources hands-on. I will also discuss recent innovations in off-campus delivery ofcourses, including how flipping the classroom has led to blended learning with the on-campus students.Many universities have placed engineering distance education into the too-hard basket. Deakin Engineering demonstrates that it is possible to deliver a full undergraduate degree by means of distance education and online learning, and modern technology makes the job easier than everbefore. The benefits to the professor are many, not the least of which is helping a student living in a remote area or with a full-time job become fully trained and qualified in engineering.

Migration and Pacific mortality: estimating migration effects on Pacific mortality rates using Bayesian models.

Pacific people living in New Zealand have higher mortality rates than New Zealand residents of European/Other ethnicity. The aim of this paper is to see whether Pacific mortality rates vary by natality and duration of residence. We used linked census-mortality information for 25- to 74-year-olds in the 2001 census followed for up to three years. Hierarchical Bayesian modeling provided a means of handling sparse data. Posterior mortality rates were directly age-standardized. We found little evidence of mortality differences between the overseas-born and the New Zealand-born for all-cause, cancer, and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. However, we found evidence for lower all-cause (and possibly cancer and CVD) mortality rates for Pacific migrants resident in New Zealand for less than 25 years relative to those resident for more than 25 years. This result may arise from a combination of processes operating over time, including health selection effects from variations in New Zealand's immigration policy, the location of Pacific migrants within the social, political, and cultural environment of the host community, and health impacts of the host culture. We could not determine the relative importance of these processes, but identifying the (modifiable) drivers of the inferred long-term decline in health of the overseas-born Pacific population relative to more-recent Pacific migrants is important to Pacific communities and from a national health and policy perspective.

Auditor client specific knowledge and internal control weakness: some evidence on the role of auditor tenure and geographic distance

In this paper we draw on the audit quality and cluster theory literature to examine whether auditor tenure and auditor's geographic proximity to the client (proxies for auditor client specific knowledge) are associated with the incidence of Section 404 internal control weakness (ICW) under the Sarbanes-Oxley Act (2002). Using a large sample of 24,217 firm-year observations for the period 2004-2012, we show that firms with long auditor tenure and in closer geographic proximity to auditors have lower incidence of ICW. Furthermore, we find that the positive association between auditor-client geographic distance and ICW is weaker for firms with longer auditor tenure. Our results suggest that auditor rotation policies could deprive the auditor of client specific knowledge, especially for auditors located further away from their clients. Our results are robust to propensity score matching method and endogenous effects.

Long-term efficacy of orthokeratology contact lens wear in controlling the progression of childhood myopia

Purpose: The primary outcome of this study is to compare the axial length growth of white European myopic children wearing orthokeratology contact lenses (OK) to a control group (CT) over a 7-year period. Methods: Subjects 6–12 years of age with myopia −0.75 to −4.00DS and astigmatism ≤1.00DC were prospectively allocated OK or distance single-vision spectacles (SV) correction. Measurements of axial length (Zeiss IOLMaster), corneal topography, and cycloplegic refraction were taken at 6-month intervals over a 2-year period. Subjects were invited to return to the clinic approximately 5 years later (i.e., 7 years after the beginning of the study) for assessment of their ocular refractive and biometric components. The CT consisted of 4 SV and 12 subjects who switched from SV to soft contact lens wear after the initial 2 years of SV lens wear. Changes in axial length relative to baseline over a 7-year period were compared between groups. Results: Fourteen and 16 subjects from the OK and CT groups, respectively, were examined 6.7 ± 0.5 years after the beginning of the study. Statistically significant changes in the axial length were found over time and between groups (both p <0.001), but not for the time*group interaction (p = 0.125). The change in the axial length for the OK group was 22% (p = 0.328), 42% (p = 0.007), 40% (p = 0.020), 41% (p = 0.013), and 33% (p = 0.062) lower than the CT group following 6, 12, 18, 24, and 84 months of lens wear, respectively. Conclusion: A trend toward a reduction in the rate of axial elongation of the order of 33% was found in the OK group in comparison to the CT group following 7 years of lens wear.

Environmental controls on spatial patterns in the long-term persistence of giant kelp in central California

As marine management measures increasingly protect static areas of the oceans, it is important to make sure protected areas capture and protect persistent populations. Rocky reefs in many temperate areas worldwide serve as habitat for canopy-forming macroalgae and these structure-forming species of kelps (order Laminariales) often serve as important habitat for a great diversity of species. Macrocystis pyrifera is the most common canopy-forming kelp species found along the coast of California, but the distribution and abundance of M. pyrifera varies in space and time. The purpose of this study is to determine what environmental parameters are correlated with and their relative contribution to the spatial and temporal persistence of M. pyrifera along the central coast of California and how well those environmental parameters can be used to predict areas where this species is more likely to persist. Nine environmental variables considered in this study included depth of the seafloor, structure of the rocky reef, proportion of rocky reef, size of kelp patch, biomass of kelp within a patch, distance from the edge of a kelp patch, sea surface temperature, wave orbital velocities, and population connectivity of individual kelp patches. Using a generalized linear mixed effects model (GLMM), the persistence of M. pyrifera was significantly associated with seven of the nine variables considered: depth, complexity of the rocky reef, proportion of rock, patch biomass, distance from the edge of a patch, population connectivity, and wave orbital velocities. These seven environmental variables were then used to predict the persistence of kelp across the central coast, and these predictions were compared to a reserved dataset of M. pyrifera persistence, which was not used in the creation of the GLMM. The environmental variables were shown to accurately predict the persistence of M. pyrifera within the central coast of California (r = 0.71, P < 0.001). Because persistence of giant kelp is important to the community structure of kelp forests, understanding those factors that support persistent populations of M. pyrifera will enable more effective management of these ecosystems.

Detectability of migrating raptors and its effect on bias and precision of trend estimates

Annual counts of migrating raptors at fixed observation points are a widespread practice, and changes in numbers counted over time, adjusted for survey effort, are commonly used as indices of trends in population size. Unmodeled year-to-year variation in detectability may introduce bias, reduce precision of trend estimates, and reduce power to detect trends. We conducted dependent double-observer surveys at the annual fall raptor migration count at Lucky Peak, Idaho, in 2009 and 2010 and applied Huggins closed-capture removal models and information-theoretic model selection to determine the relative importance of factors affecting detectability. The most parsimonious model included effects of observer team identity, distance, species, and day of the season. We then simulated 30 years of counts with heterogeneous individual detectability, a population decline (λ = 0.964), and unexplained random variation in the number of available birds. Imperfect detectability did not bias trend estimation, and increased the time required to achieve 80% power by less than 11%. Results suggested that availability is a greater source of variance in annual counts than detectability; thus, efforts to account for availability would improve the monitoring value of migration counts. According to our models, long-term trends in observer efficiency or migratory flight distance may introduce substantial bias to trend estimates. Estimating detectability with a novel count protocol like our double-observer method is just one potential means of controlling such effects. The traditional approach of modeling the effects of covariates and adjusting the index may also be effective if ancillary data is collected consistently.