Randomized observation periods for the compound Poisson risk model: Dividends

In the framework of the classical compound Poisson process in collective risk theory, we study a modification of the horizontal dividend barrier strategy by introducing random observation times at which dividends can be paid and ruin can be observed. This model contains both the continuous-time and the discrete-time risk model as a limit and represents a certain type of bridge between them which still enables the explicit calculation of moments of total discounted dividend payments until ruin. Numerical illustrations for several sets of parameters are given and the effect of random observation times on the performance of the dividend strategy is studied.

Effect of controlled co-delivery of synergistic neurotrophic factors on early nerve regeneration in rats.

Present interventions to repair severed peripheral nerves provide slow and poor early axonal regeneration, which may cause unsatisfactory functional reinnervation. To improve early axonal regeneration in a 10 mm rat sciatic nerve gap model, we developed collagen nerve conduits loaded with the synergistically acting glial cell line-derived neurotrophic factor (GDNF) and nerve growth factor (NGF). For controlling the concomitant GDNF and NGF release, the collagen tubes were cross-linked by a dehydro-thermal treatment (110 degrees C; 20 mbar; 5 days) prior to impregnating the tubes with GDNF and NGF and by coating drug-loaded tubes with layers of poly(lactide-co-glycolide). The conduits made of cross-linked collagen released low initial amounts of GDNF and NGF (2% of both during first 3 days) and enhanced significantly the early (2 weeks) nerve regeneration in terms of axonal outgrowth and Schwann cell migration in a 10 mm rat sciatic nerve gap model, as compared to the conduits made of non-cross-linked collagen releasing higher initial amounts of GDNF and NGF (12-16% within 3 days), or those releasing GDNF alone. The enhancement of early axonal regeneration using controlled co-delivery of multiple synergistic neurotrophic factors is an important requisite for eventually establishing functional connections with the target organ.

PlGF-1 and VEGFR-1 pathway regulation of the external epithelial hemato-ocular barrier. A model for retinal edema.

VEGF is considered as an important factor in the pathogenesis of macular edema. VEGF induces the rupture of the blood retinal barrier and may also influence the retinal pigment epithelial (RPE) outer retinal barrier. The aim of this work was to analyze the influence of the VEGF receptor pathways in the modulation of the RPE barrier breakdown in vitro and in vivo. The ARPE19 human junctions in culture are modulated by VEGF through VEGFR-1 but not through VEGFR-2. PlGF-1, that is a pure agonist of VEGFR-1, is produced in ARPE-19 cells under hypoxic conditions and mimics VEGF effects on the external retinal barrier as measured by TER and inulin flux. In vivo, the intravitreous injection of PlGF-1 induces a rupture of the external retinal barrier together with a retinal edema. This effect is reversible within 4 days. VEGF-E, that is a pure agonist of VEGFR-2, does not induce any acute effect on the RPE barrier. These results demonstrate that PlGF-1 can reproduce alterations of the RPE barrier occurring during diabetic retinopathy.

A sequential model for older workers' labor transitions after a health shock

In this work we study older workers'(50-64) labor force transitions after a health/disability shock. We find that the probability of keeping working decreases with both age and severity of the shock. Moreover, we find strong interactions between age and severity in the 50-64 age range and none in the 30-49 age range. Regarding demographics we find that being female and married reduce the probability of keeping work. On the contrary, being main breadwinner, education and skill levels increase it. Interestingly, the effect of some demographics changes its sign when we look at transitions from inactivity to work. This is the case of being married or having a working spouse. Undoubtedly, leisure complementarities should play a role in the latter case. Since the data we use contains a very detailed information on disabilities, we are able to evaluate the marginal effect of each type of disability either in the probability of keeping working or in returning back to work. Some of these results may have strong policy implications.

Financing Constraints, Irreversibility, and Investment Dynamics

We develop a model of an industry with many heterogeneous firms that face both financing constraints and irreversibility constraints. The financing constraint implies that firms cannot borrow unless the debt is secured by collateral; the irreversibility constraint that they can only sell their fixed capital by selling their business. We use this model to examine the cyclical behavior of aggregate fixed investment, variable capital investment, and output in the presence of persistent idiosyncratic and aggregate shocks. Our model yields three main results. First, the effect of the irreversibility constraint on fixed capital investment is reinforced by the financing constraint. Second, the effect of the financing constraint on variable capital investment is reinforced by the irreversibility constraint. Finally, the interaction between the two constraints is key for explaining why input inventories and material deliveries of US manufacturing firms are so volatile and procyclical, and also why they are highly asymmetrical over the business cycle.

Money, Fame and the Allocation of Talent: Brain Drain, the Matthew Effect and the Institution of Science

The earning structure in science is known to be flat relative to the one in the private sector, which could cause a brain drain toward the private sector. In this paper, we assume that agents value both money and fame and study the role of the institution of science in the allocation of talent between the science sector and the private sector. Following works on the Sociology of Science, we model the institution of science as a mechanism distributing fame (i.e. peer recognition). We show that since the intrinsic performance is less noisy signal of talent in the science sector than in the private sector, a good institution of science can mitigate the brain drain. We also find that providing extra monetary incentives through the market might undermine the incentives provided by the institution and thereby worsen the brain drain. Finally, we study the optimal balance between monetary and non-monetary incentives in science.

Effects of rat anti-VEGF antibody in a rat model of corneal graft rejection by topical and subconjunctival routes.

PURPOSE: To compare the effect of a rat anti-VEGF antibody, administered either by topical or subconjunctival (SC) routes, on a rat model of corneal transplant rejection.METHODS: Twenty-four rats underwent corneal transplantation and were randomized into four treatment groups (n=6 in each group). G1 and G2 received six SC injections (0.02 ml 10 µg/ml) of denatured (G1) or active (G2) anti-VEGF from Day 0 to Day 21 every third day. G3 and G4 were instilled three times a day with denatured (G3) or active (G4) anti-VEGF drops (10 µg/ml) from Day 0 to Day 21. Corneal mean clinical scores (MCSs) of edema (E), transparency (T), and neovessels (nv) were recorded at Days 3, 9, 15, and 21. Quantification of neovessels was performed after lectin staining of vessels on flat mounted corneas.RESULTS: Twenty-one days after surgery, MCSs differed significantly between G1 and G2, but not between G3 and G4, and the rejection rate was significantly reduced in rats receiving active antibodies regardless of the route of administration (G2=50%, G4=66.65% versus G1 and G3=100%; p<0.05). The mean surfaces of neovessels were significantly reduced in groups treated with active anti-VEGF (G2, G4). However, anti-VEGF therapy did not completely suppress corneal neovessels.CONCLUSIONS: Specific rat anti-VEGF antibodies significantly reduced neovascularization and subsequent corneal graft rejection. The SC administration of the anti-VEGF antibody was more effective than topical instillation.

Consumer Satisfaction with Websites of Banks - The Moderating Effect of Consumer Technology Attractiveness

The websites are becoming the firms’ first contact interface with their clients. Hence, understanding customers’ online attitudes and behaviors have been capturing increased research attention. The extant research has pointed customers’ satisfaction with the websites as the main reason for customers’ online behaviors. This research has used mostly variables related to the characteristics of the websites as the predictors of customers’ website satisfaction. However, recent research shows that groups of individuals displaying distinctive characteristics react differently to the same context. Therefore, behavior may be considerably different among groups of customers. In this study, we develop a conceptual model of the influence of individual characteristics on the traditional website quality – website satisfaction relationship. We propose a model based on the construct of consumer technology attractiveness (CTA) to represent the genuine positive propensity of individuals toward technology. We further test the moderating effect of this construct on the commonly used predictors of customer’s website satisfaction using Hierarchical Multiple Regression. The empirical study was based on websites of banks operating in Portuguese market. The commercial banking industry is one of the Portuguese industries that better uses the Internet to establish relationships with clients. Data were collected through an online website satisfaction survey, participated by the lecturers and postgraduate students from four Portuguese Universities and Polytechnic Institutes. Our final sample comprised 276 valid questionnaires. Our study permits to conclude that the most commonly used antecedents of website overall satisfaction are still relevant for analyzing consumer’s satisfaction with the banks websites. We also conclude that CTA has a significant moderating effect on almost all customers’ website satisfaction variables used in the study. This study contributes to highlight the theoretical importance and significant influence of consumers’ personal characteristics on their online behavior. Moreover, for the practitioners, a better understanding of these individual characteristics will assist them in developing customized websites that will meet customers’ expectations. O estudo dos comportamentos dos consumidores em ambientes online tem vindo a ter um crescente interesse, uma vez que os websites estão a transformar-se num importante ponto de contacto entre as empresas e os seus clientes. A satisfação dos clientes com os websites tem sido apontada pela Literatura como o principal condicionante dos comportamentos online dos consumidores. No entanto, a investigação científica tem conseguido provar que grupos de indivíduos com características distintas reagem de forma diferente quando submetidos a contextos idênticos, o que poderá levar a diferenças significativas no comportamento online de consumidores pertencentes a diferentes grupos. Neste estudo desenvolvemos um modelo conceptual que reflecte a influência de características individuais na relação entre a qualidade e a satisfação com os websites. Propomos um modelo assente na atractividade tecnológica do consumidor (CTA), que representa a propensão genuína que os indivíduos possuem em relação à tecnologia. Testamos o efeito moderador deste conceito sobre as variáveis mais utilizadas nos estudos sobre a satisfação dos consumidores com os websites, utilizando a Regressão Múltipla Hierárquica. O estudo empírico baseou-se nos websites dos bancos que operam no mercado português, uma vez que este sector é um dos que melhor utiliza a Internet na sua relação com os clientes. Os dados foram recolhidos através de um questionário sobre satisfação com os websites, colocado online e dirigido a docentes e estudantes de programas de pós-graduações, mestrados e doutoramentos de quatro universidades e instituto politécnico portugueses, tendo resultado numa amostra final de 276 questionários validados estatisticamente. Este estudo permitiu concluir que as variáveis que são mais utilizadas como antecedentes da satisfação dos consumidores com os websites, continuam a ser igualmente válidas para a análise dos websites dos bancos. Também concluímos que a CTA tem efeitos moderadores significativos na grande maioria das variáveis utilizadas neste estudo. Assim, conseguimos realçar a importância teórica das características pessoais dos consumidores no seu comportamento online. Para os gestores, uma melhor compreensão destas características individuais permitir-lhes-á desenvolver websites customizados que irão satisfazer as expectativas dos seus clientes.

Modelling the effect of minor orthopaedic day surgery on patient mood at the early post-operative period: a prospective population-based cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: The effect of minor orthopaedic day surgery (MiODS) on patient's mood. METHODS: A prospective population-based cohort study of 148 consecutive patients with age above 18 and less than 65, an American Society of Anaesthesiology (ASA) score of 1, and the requirement of general anaesthesia (GA) were included. The Medical Outcomes Study - Short Form 36 (SF-36), Beck Anxiety Inventory (BAI) and Beck Depression Inventory (BDI) were used pre- and post-operatively. RESULTS: The mean physical component score of SF-36 before surgery was 45.3 (SD=+/-10.1) and 8 weeks following surgery was 44.9 (SD=+/-11.04) [n=148, p=0.51, 95% CI=(-1.03 to 1.52)]. For the measurement of the changes in mood using BDI, BAI and SF-36, latent construct modelling was employed to increase validity. The covariance between mood pre- and post-operatively (cov=69.44) corresponded to a correlation coefficient, r=0.88 indicating that patients suffering a greater number of mood symptoms before surgery continue to have a greater number of symptoms following surgery. When the latent mood constructs were permitted to have different means the model fitted well with chi(2) (df=1)=0.86 for which p=0.77, thus the null hypothesis that MiODS has no effect on patient mood was rejected. CONCLUSIONS: MiODS affects patient mood which deteriorates at 8 weeks post-operatively regardless of the pre-operative patient mood state. More importantly patients suffering a greater number of mood symptoms before MiODS continue to have a greater number of symptoms following surgery.

The Effect of Four-Lane to Three-Lane Conversion on the Number of Crashes and Crash Rates in Iowa Roads, June 2005

We analyze crash data collected by the Iowa Department of Transportation using Bayesian methods. The data set includes monthly crash numbers, estimated monthly traffic volumes, site length and other information collected at 30 paired sites in Iowa over more than 20 years during which an intervention experiment was set up. The intervention consisted in transforming 15 undivided road segments from four-lane to three lanes, while an additional 15 segments, thought to be comparable in terms of traffic safety-related characteristics were not converted. The main objective of this work is to find out whether the intervention reduces the number of crashes and the crash rates at the treated sites. We fitted a hierarchical Poisson regression model with a change-point to the number of monthly crashes per mile at each of the sites. Explanatory variables in the model included estimated monthly traffic volume, time, an indicator for intervention reflecting whether the site was a “treatment” or a “control” site, and various interactions. We accounted for seasonal effects in the number of crashes at a site by including smooth trigonometric functions with three different periods to reflect the four seasons of the year. A change-point at the month and year in which the intervention was completed for treated sites was also included. The number of crashes at a site can be thought to follow a Poisson distribution. To estimate the association between crashes and the explanatory variables, we used a log link function and added a random effect to account for overdispersion and for autocorrelation among observations obtained at the same site. We used proper but non-informative priors for all parameters in the model, and carried out all calculations using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods implemented in WinBUGS. We evaluated the effect of the four to three-lane conversion by comparing the expected number of crashes per year per mile during the years preceding the conversion and following the conversion for treatment and control sites. We estimated this difference using the observed traffic volumes at each site and also on a per 100,000,000 vehicles. We also conducted a prospective analysis to forecast the expected number of crashes per mile at each site in the study one year, three years and five years following the four to three-lane conversion. Posterior predictive distributions of the number of crashes, the crash rate and the percent reduction in crashes per mile were obtained for each site for the months of January and June one, three and five years after completion of the intervention. The model appears to fit the data well. We found that in most sites, the intervention was effective and reduced the number of crashes. Overall, and for the observed traffic volumes, the reduction in the expected number of crashes per year and mile at converted sites was 32.3% (31.4% to 33.5% with 95% probability) while at the control sites, the reduction was estimated to be 7.1% (5.7% to 8.2% with 95% probability). When the reduction in the expected number of crashes per year, mile and 100,000,000 AADT was computed, the estimates were 44.3% (43.9% to 44.6%) and 25.5% (24.6% to 26.0%) for converted and control sites, respectively. In both cases, the difference in the percent reduction in the expected number of crashes during the years following the conversion was significantly larger at converted sites than at control sites, even though the number of crashes appears to decline over time at all sites. Results indicate that the reduction in the expected number of sites per mile has a steeper negative slope at converted than at control sites. Consistent with this, the forecasted reduction in the number of crashes per year and mile during the years after completion of the conversion at converted sites is more pronounced than at control sites. Seasonal effects on the number of crashes have been well-documented. In this dataset, we found that, as expected, the expected number of monthly crashes per mile tends to be higher during winter months than during the rest of the year. Perhaps more interestingly, we found that there is an interaction between the four to three-lane conversion and season; the reduction in the number of crashes appears to be more pronounced during months, when the weather is nice than during other times of the year, even though a reduction was estimated for the entire year. Thus, it appears that the four to three-lane conversion, while effective year-round, is particularly effective in reducing the expected number of crashes in nice weather.

A sequential model for older workers’ labor transitions after a health shock

In this work we study older workers (50 64) labor force transitions after a health/disability shock. We find that the probability of keeping working decreases with both age and severity of the shock. Moreover, we find strong interactions between age and severity in the 50 64 age range and none in the 30 49 age range. Regarding demographics we find that being female and married reduce the probability of keeping work. On the contrary, being main breadwinner, education and skill levels increase it. Interestingly, the effect of some demographics changes its sign when we look at transitions from inactivity to work. This is the case of being married or having a working spouse. Undoubtedly, leisure complementarities should play a role in the latter case. Since the data we use contains a very detailed information on disabilities, we are able to evaluate the marginal effect of each type of disability either in the probability of keeping working or in returning back to work. Some of these results may have strong policy implications.

On commercial media bias

Within the spokes model of Chen and Riordan (2007) that allowsfor non-localized competition among arbitrary numbers of media outlets, we quantify the effect of concentration of ownership on qualityand bias of media content. A main result shows that too few commercial outlets, or better, too few separate owners of commercial outlets can lead to substantial bias in equilibrium. Increasing the number of outlets (commercial and non-commercial) tends to bring down this bias; but the strongest effect occurs when the number of owners is increased. Allowing for free entry provides lower bounds on fixed costs above which substantial commercial bias occurs in equilibrium.

The wage effect of an indexation clause: Evidence from Spanish manufacturing firms

An endogenous switching model of ex-ante wage changes under indexed and non-indexed settlements is estimated for the Spanish manufacturing sector using collective bargaining firm data for the 1984-1991 period. The likelihood of indexing the settlement is higher for nationwide unions than for other union groups within the works council and increases with the expected level of inflation. For wage change equations, a common structure for indexed and non-indexed settlements is strongly rejected, showing a source of nominal rigidity. For indexed contracts, the expected ex-ante total inflation coverage is nearly complete. It is also shown that workers pay a significant ex-ante wage change premium (differential) to obtain a cost of living allowance clause. However, the realised contingent compensation exceeds such a premium for all industries. Finally, important spillover effects in wage setting and the decision to index the settlement have been detected.

Dynamic price competition with fixed capacities

Many revenue management (RM) industries are characterized by (a) fixed capacities in theshort term (e.g., hotel rooms, seats on an airline flight), (b) homogeneous products (e.g., twoairline flights between the same cities at similar times), and (c) customer purchasing decisionslargely influenced by price. Competition in these industries is also very high even with just twoor three direct competitors in a market. However, RM competition is not well understood andpractically all known implementations of RM software and most published models of RM donot explicitly model competition. For this reason, there has been considerable recent interestand research activity to understand RM competition. In this paper we study price competitionfor an oligopoly in a dynamic setting, where each of the sellers has a fixed number of unitsavailable for sale over a fixed number of periods. Demand is stochastic, and depending on howit evolves, sellers may change their prices at any time. This reflects the fact that firms constantly,and almost costlessly, change their prices (alternately, allocations at a price in quantity-basedRM), reacting either to updates in their estimates of market demand, competitor prices, orinventory levels. We first prove existence of a unique subgame-perfect equilibrium for a duopoly.In equilibrium, in each state sellers engage in Bertrand competition, so that the seller withthe lowest reservation value ends up selling a unit at a price that is equal to the equilibriumreservation value of the competitor. This structure hence extends the marginal-value conceptof bid-price control, used in many RM implementations, to a competitive model. In addition,we show that the seller with the lowest capacity sells all its units first. Furthermore, we extendthe results transparently to n firms and perform a number of numerical comparative staticsexploiting the uniqueness of the subgame-perfect equilibrium.

Negativity effect and the emergence of ideologies

``Negativity effect'' refers to the psychological phenomenon that peopletend to attach greater weight to negative information than to equallyextreme and equally likely positive information in a variety of informationprocessing tasks. Numerous studies of impression formation have found thatnegative information is weighted more heavily than positive information asimpressions of others are formed. There is empirical evidence in politicalscience that shows the importance of the negativity effect in the informationprocessing of the voters. This effect can explain the observed decreaseof popularity for a president the longer he is in office. \\We construct a dynamic model of political competition, incorporating thenegativity effect in the decision rule of the voters and allowing their preferencesto change over time, according to the past performance of the candidateswhile in office. Our model may explain the emergence of ideologies out ofthe competition for votes of myopic candidates freely choosing policypositions. This result gives rise to the formation of political parties,as infinitely--lived agents with a certain ideology. Furthermore, in thismodel some voters may start out by switching among parties associated withdifferent policies, but find themselves supporting one of the parties fromsome point on. Thus, the model describes a process by which some votersbecome identified with a ``right'' or ``left'' bloc, while others ``swing''between the two parties.