Seroprevalence of viral hepatitis in riverine communities from the Western Region of the Brazilian Amazon Basin

The western region of the Brazilian Amazon Basin has long been shown to be a highly endemic area for hepatitis B and hepatitis D viruses. Data concerning the prevalence of hepatitis C and E viruses in this region are still scarce. In this study we investigated the presence of hepatitis A, B, C, D and E viruses infection in communities that live along the Purus and Acre rivers in the states of Acre and Amazonas within the Amazon Basin. A total of 349 blood samples were collected and tested for hepatitis A-E serological markers (antibodies and/or antigens) using commercial enzyme linked immunosorbent assays. Anti-HCV positive sera were further assayed by an immunoblot. HBsAg positive sera were subtyped by immunodifusion. The overall prevalence for hepatitis A, B, C, and E were 93.7%, 66.1%, 1.7%, and 4%, respectively. A very high prevalence of delta hepatitis (66.6%) was found among HBsAg positive subjects. Hepatitis A, B and D viruses were shown to be largely disseminated in this population, while hepatitis C and E viruses infection presented low prevalence rates in this region. The analysis of risk factors for HBV infection demonstrated that transmission was closely associated with sexual activity.

Essays in higher moment asset pricing and liquidity risk

This thesis focuses on theoretical asset pricing models and their empirical applications. I aim to investigate the following noteworthy problems: i) if the relationship between asset prices and investors' propensities to gamble and to fear disaster is time varying, ii) if the conflicting evidence for the firm and market level skewness can be explained by downside risk, Hi) if costly learning drives liquidity risk. Moreover, empirical tests support the above assumptions and provide novel findings in asset pricing, investment decisions, and firms' funding liquidity. The first chapter considers a partial equilibrium model where investors have heterogeneous propensities to gamble and fear disaster. Skewness preference represents the desire to gamble, while kurtosis aversion represents fear of extreme returns. Using US data from 1988 to 2012, my model demonstrates that in bad times, risk aversion is higher, more people fear disaster, and fewer people gamble, in contrast to good times. This leads to a new empirical finding: gambling preference has a greater impact on asset prices during market downturns than during booms. The second chapter consists of two essays. The first essay introduces a foramula based on conditional CAPM for decomposing the market skewness. We find that the major market upward and downward movements can be well preadicted by the asymmetric comovement of betas, which is characterized by an indicator called "Systematic Downside Risk" (SDR). We find that SDR can efafectively forecast future stock market movements and we obtain out-of-sample R-squares (compared with a strategy using historical mean) of more than 2.27% with monthly data. The second essay reconciles a well-known empirical fact: aggregating positively skewed firm returns leads to negatively skewed market return. We reconcile this fact through firms' greater response to negative maraket news than positive market news. We also propose several market return predictors, such as downside idiosyncratic skewness. The third chapter studies the funding liquidity risk based on a general equialibrium model which features two agents: one entrepreneur and one external investor. Only the investor needs to acquire information to estimate the unobservable fundamentals driving the economic outputs. The novelty is that information acquisition is more costly in bad times than in good times, i.e. counter-cyclical information cost, as supported by previous empirical evidence. Later we show that liquidity risks are principally driven by costly learning. Résumé Cette thèse présente des modèles théoriques dévaluation des actifs et leurs applications empiriques. Mon objectif est d'étudier les problèmes suivants: la relation entre l'évaluation des actifs et les tendances des investisseurs à parier et à crainadre le désastre varie selon le temps ; les indications contraires pour l'entreprise et l'asymétrie des niveaux de marché peuvent être expliquées par les risques de perte en cas de baisse; l'apprentissage coûteux augmente le risque de liquidité. En outre, des tests empiriques confirment les suppositions ci-dessus et fournissent de nouvelles découvertes en ce qui concerne l'évaluation des actifs, les décisions relatives aux investissements et la liquidité de financement des entreprises. Le premier chapitre examine un modèle d'équilibre où les investisseurs ont des tendances hétérogènes à parier et à craindre le désastre. La préférence asymétrique représente le désir de parier, alors que le kurtosis d'aversion représente la crainte du désastre. En utilisant les données des Etats-Unis de 1988 à 2012, mon modèle démontre que dans les mauvaises périodes, l'aversion du risque est plus grande, plus de gens craignent le désastre et moins de gens parient, conatrairement aux bonnes périodes. Ceci mène à une nouvelle découverte empirique: la préférence relative au pari a un plus grand impact sur les évaluations des actifs durant les ralentissements de marché que durant les booms économiques. Exploitant uniquement cette relation générera un revenu excédentaire annuel de 7,74% qui n'est pas expliqué par les modèles factoriels populaires. Le second chapitre comprend deux essais. Le premier essai introduit une foramule base sur le CAPM conditionnel pour décomposer l'asymétrie du marché. Nous avons découvert que les mouvements de hausses et de baisses majeures du marché peuvent être prédits par les mouvements communs des bêtas. Un inadicateur appelé Systematic Downside Risk, SDR (risque de ralentissement systématique) est créé pour caractériser cette asymétrie dans les mouvements communs des bêtas. Nous avons découvert que le risque de ralentissement systématique peut prévoir les prochains mouvements des marchés boursiers de manière efficace, et nous obtenons des carrés R hors échantillon (comparés avec une stratégie utilisant des moyens historiques) de plus de 2,272% avec des données mensuelles. Un investisseur qui évalue le marché en utilisant le risque de ralentissement systématique aurait obtenu une forte hausse du ratio de 0,206. Le second essai fait cadrer un fait empirique bien connu dans l'asymétrie des niveaux de march et d'entreprise, le total des revenus des entreprises positiveament asymétriques conduit à un revenu de marché négativement asymétrique. Nous décomposons l'asymétrie des revenus du marché au niveau de l'entreprise et faisons cadrer ce fait par une plus grande réaction des entreprises aux nouvelles négatives du marché qu'aux nouvelles positives du marché. Cette décomposition révélé plusieurs variables de revenus de marché efficaces tels que l'asymétrie caractéristique pondérée par la volatilité ainsi que l'asymétrie caractéristique de ralentissement. Le troisième chapitre fournit une nouvelle base théorique pour les problèmes de liquidité qui varient selon le temps au sein d'un environnement de marché incomplet. Nous proposons un modèle d'équilibre général avec deux agents: un entrepreneur et un investisseur externe. Seul l'investisseur a besoin de connaitre le véritable état de l'entreprise, par conséquent, les informations de paiement coutent de l'argent. La nouveauté est que l'acquisition de l'information coute plus cher durant les mauvaises périodes que durant les bonnes périodes, comme cela a été confirmé par de précédentes expériences. Lorsque la récession comamence, l'apprentissage coûteux fait augmenter les primes de liquidité causant un problème d'évaporation de liquidité, comme cela a été aussi confirmé par de précédentes expériences.

The Nursing and Midwifery Resource - Interim Report of the Steering Group

This project arises from the need for an enhanced focus on workforce planning having regard, in particular, to the availability of sufficient nurses now and in the future. For a country which historically has had an abundance of nurses, the recruitment difficulties now being experienced by the health services are unprecedented. Up to the mid 1990s, there was a surplus of registered nurses here and other countries sent recruitment teams to Ireland in order to address their own shortages. As will be seen in this report, the concern of the professional interest groups at the time was the high levels of unemployment among nurses. The conventional wisdom was that the health services were training too many nurses for the jobs available. However, there has been a sea change in the situation over the past five years and the stage has now been reached where Irish health care agencies, particularly the major acute Dublin hospitals, are actively seeking to recruit nurses from abroad. Download the Report here

The inter-rater reliability of the Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index.

The Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI) is a validated clinical prognostic model for patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE). Our goal was to assess the PESI's inter-rater reliability in patients diagnosed with PE. We prospectively identified consecutive patients diagnosed with PE in the emergency department of a Swiss teaching hospital. For all patients, resident and attending physician raters independently collected the 11 PESI variables. The raters then calculated the PESI total point score and classified patients into one of five PESI risk classes (I-V) and as low (risk classes I/II) versus higher-risk (risk classes III-V). We examined the inter-rater reliability for each of the 11 PESI variables, the PESI total point score, assignment to each of the five PESI risk classes, and classification of patients as low versus higher-risk using kappa (κ) and intra-class correlation coefficients (ICC). Among 48 consecutive patients with an objective diagnosis of PE, reliability coefficients between resident and attending physician raters were > 0.60 for 10 of the 11 variables comprising the PESI. The inter-rater reliability for the PESI total point score (ICC: 0.89, 95% CI: 0.81-0.94), PESI risk class assignment (κ: 0.81, 95% CI: 0.66-0.94), and the classification of patients as low versus higher-risk (κ: 0.92, 95% CI: 0.72-0.98) was near perfect. Our results demonstrate the high reproducibility of the PESI, supporting the use of the PESI for risk stratification of patients with PE.

Regulatory Impact Analysis (RIA) Public Health (Sunbeds) Bill 2013

There has been a growing body of evidence over recent years, that the use of sunbeds, especially by children, should be restricted because of the associated increased risk of skin cancer and other health problems. Regulatory Impact Analysis (RIA) of the Public Health (Sunbeds) Bill 2013

Atrial fibrillation and minimally invasive coronary artery bypass grafting: risk factor analysis.

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a frequent arrhythmia after conventional coronary artery bypass grafting. With the advent of minimally invasive technique for left internal mammary artery-left anterior descending coronary artery (LIMA-LAD) grafting, we analyzed the incidence and the risk factors of postoperative AF in this patient population. This prospective study involves all patients undergoing isolated LIMA-LAD grafting with minimally invasive technique between January 1994 and June 2000. Twenty-four possible risk factors for postoperative AF were entered into univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. Postoperative AF occurred in 21 of the 90 patients (23.3%) analyzed. Double- or triple-vessel disease was present in 12/90 patients (13.3%). On univariate analysis, right coronary artery disease (p <0.01), age (p = 0.01), and diabetes (p = 0.04) were found to be risk factors for AF. On multivariate analysis, right coronary artery disease was identified as the sole significant risk factor (p = 0.02). In this patient population, the incidence of AF after minimally invasive coronary artery bypass is in the range of that reported for conventional coronary artery bypass grafting. Right coronary artery disease was found to be an independent predictor, and this may be related to the fact that in this patient population the diseased right coronary artery was not revascularized at the time of the surgical procedure. For the same reason, this risk factor may find a broader application to noncardiac thoracic surgery.

NICaN Regional Supportive & Palliative Care Network

NICaN Regional Supportive & Palliative Care Network Friday 30th May 2008 Lecture Theatre, Fern House Antrim 2.00 pm - 5.00 pm Welcome, Introductions Stuart MacDonnell, Chair of the Supportive and Palliative Care network welcomed everyone to the meeting. This meeting had been rescheduled to accommodate the validation workshop for the regional palliative care model, which took place on Friday,18th April. Acknowledging the full agenda, several items were pulled forward to accommodate speakers SPC_0809_03 Modernisation and Reform of Supportive and Palliative care Mr MacDonnell welcomed Dr Sonja McIlfatrick and Dr Donna Fitzimons, members of the Phase 1 Project Team for the Modernisation and Reform of palliative care. Their presentation highlighted the journey taken by the Project Team since January 2008 - May 2008. Seeking to deliver the network vision, for any person with palliative care need, cancer or non - cancer, the project team incorporated several methodologies. The literature review identified best practice. An assessment of need including epidemiological data and review of service provision. Consultation reflected the engagement with patients, carers and professional forums, primary care and non-malignant focus groups. The breadth of consultation confirmed the evidence for the identified components of the model. These were validated at the April workshop. External review of the work was provided by Dr Phil Larkin (Galway Uni) Prof David Clark (End of Life Care Observatory, Lancaster University) and Mr Bob Neillans (Chair of the Mid Trent Palliative care network, which has been involved in the Delivering choice programme within Lincolnshire). The Guiding Principles of the model reinforced Patient and family centred care, enhanced community provision and supported by specialists. The components of the model are · Identification of patient with Palliative careened · Holistic Assessment · Integration of services · Coordination of care · End of Life Care and Bereavement Care The consultation process also highlighted the need for Increased Public and Professional Awareness. This was recognised as an encompassing component. Underpinning the model is the need for robust Education and common core values e.g. dignity, choice, advocacy, empowerment, partnership working. Stuart MacDonnell, who also chaired the steering group during the project, congratulated the Project Team for delivering the comprehensive document on schedule. The Report has been submitted to the NICaN Board and the DHSSPSNI. In addition, an outline for Phase 2 of this work has been submitted. Mr MacDonnell recognised that there is real opportunity for palliative care to benefit from the DHSSPSNI commitment to concrete developments. Phase 2 will progress the current high-level components of the model into quality services developments at a local level, demonstrating integration throughout. The methods propose continued engagement with the Delivering Choice Programme enabled through a Central and also Local Teams. The report and the Appendices care available on the NICaN website www.nican@n-i.nhs.uk SPC_0809_01 Chairman's Business · Update on the Cancer Service Framework, the document has been submitted and presented to the Departmental Programme Board. Next stages will include the review of costs and development of a implementation guidance It is hoped that the completed document should be available for public consultation in Autumn 2008. with a launch of the framework document and accompanying implementation guide in Spring 2009. Some funding has already been identified to advance key areas of work including, Advanced communication skills training, peer review and an appointment of a post to develop the cancerni.net, focusing on children and e-learning tools. · Children's and Adolescent Cancer network group , Liz Henderson is to convene a group to consider how this is to be taken forward. · NICaN appointments Recognition was given to the significant contribution made by Dr Gerard Daly during his position as NICaN Lead Clinician, particularly throughout the early establishment of the NICaN. Dr Dermott Hughes (Western Trust) has been appointed as the NICaN Medical Director. The Primary Care Director post has been advertised and it is hoped that the Director of Network will be advertised later in Summer. Endorsement of End of Life care paper. The Paper was presented and endorsed at the March 2008 NICaN Board meeting. Mr David Galloway (Director of Secondary Care) emphasised the need for this important work to be recognised within the regional model to ensure that it is reflected in future models of service delivery Congratulations were again echoed to the Chair of the End of Life Group for this work, Dr Glynis Henry, and the working group Other recognition Mr MacDonnell congratulated the significant achievements across the network. These include: · Dr Francis Robinson (Consultant Palliative Medicine, Western Trust) Awarded - Consultant of the year at the NI Health Care awards. · Mrs Evelyn Whittaker Hospice Nurse Specialist, NI Hospice, Joint Second Prize in the Development award within the International Journal of Palliative Nursing Awards, for her work in development of palliative care education in nursing homes. · Mr Ray Elder is the newly appointed Team Leader of Community Palliative care, SE Trust. · Mrs Bridget Denvir, who managed the establishment of one of the first community multiprofessional palliative care teams is moving to work with establishing integrated teams within the Belfast Trust. Bridget has been an active core member of the network and here contribution has been much appreciated. Mrs Sharon Barr will attend in future. SPC_0809_02 Minutes & matters Arising from Meeting, 13th December 2007 No amendments were made to the draft minutes from the December meeting. These will be posted on the NICaN website for future reference. Palliative Care Research Following consultation, the response to the business case for the All Ireland Institute was forwarded on 22 February 2008 to Prof David Clark. Prof Judith Hill informed the group that terms of tender are now being developed. Awareness raising across academic institutions continues to engage interest in potential partnerships. Atlantic Philantrophies have offered financial support to the venture and match funding is being sought from across jurisdictions. Previous discussions at Network meetings have endorsed the need to establish a work strand for research and development within palliative and end of life care. To identify the body of interested parties and explore the strengths and weaknesses of a collaborative model for research, a workshop, - Building collaboration for Palliative and End of life Care Research -will take place on 4 June 10am - 2pm.in the Comfort Hotel.Antrim, The workshop will be chaired by Prof David Clark, Director of the International Observatory on End of Life Care. Prof Shelia Payne, Help the Hospices Chair in Hospice Studies and co director of the Cancer Experiences Collaborative will present the Experiences and Results from Research Collaborative. Feedback from this event will be brought back to the next meeting in September. SPC_0809_04 Patient Information pathways - a pathway for advanced disease Ms Danny Sinclair, NICaN Regional Coordinator for Patient Information informed the network of how patient information pathways have been developed in line with the Cancer Services Collaborative. Emerging themes, with regard to information needs of patients with advanced disease, are being identified from the work undertaken across the tumour groups. It is important to identify all information needs to develop a generic pathway of information resources for advanced disease to be endorsed by the Supportive and Palliative care network. This could be used across the all tumour specific information pathways and across organisational boundaries. The resulting pathway could potentially be used for non- cancer condition. A group is to be established to take this work forward. The group will: · Develop a list of advanced disease information themes · .Identify when they become relevant for the patient or their carer · .Identify existing resources · .Develop resources where needed · .Participate or nominate when review is required Dr Sheila Kelly nominated Helen Hume (SETrust) Paula Kealey will also contribute to this work; a nomination from the Patient and Public Information Forum has also been identified. A date will be circulated across the network to engage further interest and establish group SPC_0809_08 Development of a Regional Syringe Driver Prescription Chart Ms Kathy Stephenson reported that the second consultation of the draft regional syringe driver prescription chart and the focus group discussions, Pilots of the chart are to be undertaken within Trust, Hospices and General Practices. SPC_0809_05 A framework for Generalist and Specialist Palliative and End of Life Care Competency Dr Kathleen Dunne, lead of the Education works strand, reported on the findings following consultation of the Education framework. The report was widely appreciated across the network and valued as a significant and timely document for the commissioning of generalist and specialist adult palliative care education. Mr MacDonnell congratulated Dr Dunne and the members of the education workstrand for developing the framework aligning its significance to the underpinning needs of the regional model Amendments will be made to the document and then forwarded to the NICaN Board for endorsement. A process of implementation will be explored and reported to the network group at the September meeting. Key target areas for generalist palliative care education were highlighted within care of the elderly and general medicine. . SPC_0809_06 Pallcareni.net-a website for people with palliative care needs Ms Danny Sinclair, reminded the group of the pending amalgamation of the CAPriCORN and NICaN website. The resulting new web address will be www. cancerni.net. Recurrent funding has been secured to ensure the development of the supportive and palliative care website.www.Pallcareni.net The new website will host good information for people with palliative care needs, regardless of diagnosis. It will be accessible via the cancerni.net portal or independently as the pallcareni portal. It will signpost people with palliative care needs to condition- specific websites. The website will also enable the communication needs of the NI Regional Supportive & Palliative Care Network. This is a very significant method of seeking to enable greater understanding of palliative care for public and professionals, as highlighted within the regional model. Currently the material from the CAPriCORN website is being migrated onto cancerni and /or pallcareni.net as appropriate. To enable the further development of this opportunity a steering group of interested individuals is to be established. Their role will be to: · Drive the development of the website so it meets the needs of public and professionals through the sourcing and development of additional content · Identify any support that is needed, e.g. technical support · Review the website as a whole as it grows (coordinating condition-specific developments) · Review the functions of the website to aid communication throughout the Supportive and Palliative care network The steering group representation should reflect the constituencies within the Supportive and Palliative Care network. Current expressions of interest have come from Heather Reid and Valerie Peacock. A date will be circulated across the network to engage further interest and establish group SPC_0809_07 Update of Guidelines workstrand Dr Pauline Wilkinson presented the current work within the guidelines workstrand. 1. Brief Holistic Assessment & Referral Criteria to Specialist Palliative Care The development of an Holistic assessment Tool will help to identify holistic need at generalist and specialist level. Recognition of complex need prompts appropriate referral to specialist palliative care. The regional referral form is compatible with the Minimum Data set. The final drafts of this work are to be circulated widely, inclusive of service framework groups, primary care, secondary care and the supportive and palliative care network. Consultation will take place during June and July. Piloting of the forms will also be undertaken. 2. Control of Pain in Cancer Patients The original guidelines where developed 2003 and are now ready for review. The Mapping exercise, undertaken in May 2007, highlighted that the Guidelines were poorly adopted. The group have reviewed the pending SIGN 2 guidelines for pain with regard to practice in Northern Ireland. These are highly evidence based and are due to be launched this Summer. Whilst an excellent resource their comprehensiveness limits their readability, this may result in poor compliance. The Guidelines group feel it is important to have accessible and user-friendly guidelines particularly for Generalists and Out of hours. There are examples of good work that has taken place across the province, but there is a need for regional consistency. Dr Wilkinson has contacted Dr Carolyn Harper (Deputy CMO) and GAIN with regard to enabling funding to progress this work. The Guidelines group hope to approach the NICaN Primary Care Group to work in collaboratively on this piece, based on the templates already available. The works should be available in both electronic and paper versions. 3. Care of the dying & Breaking bad news Dr Gail Johnston has now completed an Audit of the Care of the Dying Pathways within the EHSSB. Gail is also seeking to examine to what extent the Regional Guidelines for Breaking Bad News are being implemented in the EHSSB with a view to identifying the need for further training or organisational structures that would facilitate future uptake. 4. Advances in new Technology Syringe Drivers Dr Wilkinson reported on a presentation made to the guidelines group by Mr Jim Elliot, Principle Engineer, Cardiology & Ann McLean, and Macmillan Palliative Care Nurse RVH. There is increasing concern with regard to how devices meet the recommended safety standards and how to reduce error. New devices have 3 point checking, automatic detection of syringe, automatic flow rates, full range of alarms, battery status and data download to provide an event log. There are now 2 companies in UK who have devices that meet these safety criteria. The current Graseby syringe drivers, which have been on the market and used predominately within Northern Ireland over the past 27 years Most new devices are not compatible with the regionally available monoject syringe, however contractual changes will lead to the withdrawal of the monoject syringes in October 2008. The Guidelines group supports a regional approach to this matter. This was echoed in the Supportive and Palliative care network. An option appraisal, identifying costs, and training issues should be developed through the engagement with Trusts and DHSSPSNI. The issue of Patient safety should be raised with the DHSSPSNI. SPC_0809_09 Evaluation of Supportive and Palliative Care network Deferred to next meeting. . SPC_0809_10 Emerging Issues Mrs Anne Coyle, Bereavement Coordinator, Southern Trust, announced that the Regional Bereavement Strategy is soon to be released. Anne supported the close alignment between the content of the strategy and the work of the regional model and other workstrands within the Supportive and Palliative care network. Ms Eleanor Donaghy, Transplant Coordinator, briefly highlighted the issue of tissue donation. Each year Northern Ireland has a dearth of corneal donations. There is no upper age limit for donation and retrieval is not limited by a cancer diagnosis. Recipients do not require immunosuppressive and the transplant is lifelong. The National Blood Service provided coordination of this donation they may be contacted via 07659180773. It is hoped that Mrs Coyle and Ms Donaghy could provide more comprehensive presentations at a future meeting. Events · Irish Psycho- Oncology Group Seminar, Cork 6 June, Exploring the Struggle for meaning in Cancer · Integrated Care: Putting Research into Practice, 13June, Trinity College, Dublin · Macmillan online conference Friday 13 June 2008, 9am - 5pm · Delivering effective end of life care: developing partnership working 15 Oct 2008, 9.30 -4.15 pm London Network Meeting was closed at 5.00pm SPC_0607_ Dates of Future Meetings (please note the change of venue) 10th September 2008, 1.30 - 5pm venue to be decided15th January 2009, 1.30 - 5pm venue to be decided12th May 2009, 1.30 - 5pm venue to be decided Attendances Apologies Stuart MacDonnellLorna NevinSonja McIlfatrick Donna FitzsimonsKathleen DunnePauline WilkinsonKathy StephensonSheila KellyMarie Nugent,Anne CoyleFiona GilmourJudith HillLorna DicksonMargaret CarlinLoretta GribbenYvonne Duff Lesley NelsonLiz HendersonSue FosterCathy PayneGraeme PaynePatricia MageeGeraldine WeatherupPaula KealyCaroline McAfeeLinda WrayValerie PeacockAnn McCleanRay Elder Martin BradleyHelen HumeGillian RankinHeather MonteverdeJulie DoyleAlison PorterYvonne SmythLiz Atkinson,Glynis HenryMaeve HullyCaroline HughesAnn FinnBob BrownSharon BarrJulie DoyleJanis McCulla .

Three essays in international finance

Executive Summary The first essay of this dissertation investigates whether greater exchange rate uncertainty (i.e., variation over time in the exchange rate) fosters or depresses the foreign investment of multinational firms. In addition to the direct capital financing it supplies, foreign investment can be a source of valuable technology and know-how, which can have substantial positive effects on a host country's economic growth. Thus, it is critically important for policy makers and central bankers, among others, to understand how multinationals base their investment decisions on the characteristics of foreign exchange markets. In this essay, I first develop a theoretical framework to improve our knowledge regarding how the aggregate level of foreign investment responds to exchange rate uncertainty when an economy consists of many firms, each of which is making decisions. The analysis predicts a U-shaped effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the total level of foreign investment of the economy. That is, the effect is negative for low levels of uncertainty and positive for higher levels of uncertainty. This pattern emerges because the relationship between exchange rate volatility and 'the probability of investment is negative for firms with low productivity at home (i.e., firms that find it profitable to invest abroad) and the relationship is positive for firms with high productivity at home (i.e., firms that prefer exporting their product). This finding stands in sharp contrast to predictions in the existing literature that consider a single firm's decision to invest in a unique project. The main contribution of this research is to show that the aggregation over many firms produces a U-shaped pattern between exchange rate uncertainty and the probability of investment. Using data from industrialized countries for the period of 1982-2002, this essay offers a comprehensive empirical analysis that provides evidence in support of the theoretical prediction. In the second essay, I aim to explain the time variation in sovereign credit risk, which captures the risk that a government may be unable to repay its debt. The importance of correctly evaluating such a risk is illustrated by the central role of sovereign debt in previous international lending crises. In addition, sovereign debt is the largest asset class in emerging markets. In this essay, I provide a pricing formula for the evaluation of sovereign credit risk in which the decision to default on sovereign debt is made by the government. The pricing formula explains the variation across time in daily credit spreads - a widely used measure of credit risk - to a degree not offered by existing theoretical and empirical models. I use information on a country's stock market to compute the prevailing sovereign credit spread in that country. The pricing formula explains a substantial fraction of the time variation in daily credit spread changes for Brazil, Mexico, Peru, and Russia for the 1998-2008 period, particularly during the recent subprime crisis. I also show that when a government incentive to default is allowed to depend on current economic conditions, one can best explain the level of credit spreads, especially during the recent period of financial distress. In the third essay, I show that the risk of sovereign default abroad can produce adverse consequences for the U.S. equity market through a decrease in returns and an increase in volatility. The risk of sovereign default, which is no longer limited to emerging economies, has recently become a major concern for financial markets. While sovereign debt plays an increasing role in today's financial environment, the effects of sovereign credit risk on the U.S. financial markets have been largely ignored in the literature. In this essay, I develop a theoretical framework that explores how the risk of sovereign default abroad helps explain the level and the volatility of U.S. equity returns. The intuition for this effect is that negative economic shocks deteriorate the fiscal situation of foreign governments, thereby increasing the risk of a sovereign default that would trigger a local contraction in economic growth. The increased risk of an economic slowdown abroad amplifies the direct effect of these shocks on the level and the volatility of equity returns in the U.S. through two channels. The first channel involves a decrease in the future earnings of U.S. exporters resulting from unfavorable adjustments to the exchange rate. The second channel involves investors' incentives to rebalance their portfolios toward safer assets, which depresses U.S. equity prices. An empirical estimation of the model with monthly data for the 1994-2008 period provides evidence that the risk of sovereign default abroad generates a strong leverage effect during economic downturns, which helps to substantially explain the level and the volatility of U.S. equity returns.

Simple steps to a healthy heart

The number of deaths from coronary heart disease in Northern Ireland has dropped significantly, according to recent figures. However, the Public Health Agency is urging everyone to take steps to protect their heart and reduce their chances of developing the disease during National Heart Month (February).Despite the number of deaths dropping significantly in recent years, coronary heart disease is still the number one killer across the country. Over 2,200 people died in Northern Ireland from coronary heart disease in 2010 compared to just over 2,300 people in 2009 - an overall reduction of 100 province-wide. The latest figure reveals the positive downward trend is continuing - in 2008, there were 2,410 deaths, 2,493 in 2007 and 2,554 in 2006, while in 1979 there were nearly 5,000 deaths. Throughout National Heart Month in February, the PHA is calling for people to follow a number of steps in a bid to reduce their chances of developing the disease.Smoking is a major risk factor and, the more cigarettes you smoke, the higher the risk, according to Dr Christine McMaster, Consultant in Public Health Medicine, with responsibility for cardiovascular disease in the PHA."The reduction in smoking over the past number of years through public education, stop smoking programmes and smoke free legislation has had a major impact on reducing deaths from heart disease. However, 24% of the population in Northern Ireland still smoke, putting them at risk of developing the disease."People who suffer from high blood pressure also run an increased risk of developing coronary heart disease. High blood pressure is a silent, but treatable condition. In order to minimise the risk, I would urge everyone over the age of 45 to have their blood pressure measured every five years by their GP," said Dr McMaster.Simple lifestyle changes will also reduce the risk of heart disease, including eating at least five servings of fruit and vegetables a day, avoiding saturated fats, limiting alcohol intake and taking at least 30 minutes of exercise a day, five days a week.Dr McMaster described the reduction in deaths from coronary heart disease over the past few years as "a big success story". "It shows that people can take very positive steps to reduce their risk of heart disease by getting their blood pressure checked and adopting a healthier lifestyle; in particular by not smoking," he added. "The message is clear during National Heart Month - you only have one heart and you can take steps to keep it healthy."

Five Years Of Denosumab Treatment In Women With Postmenopausal Osteoporosis: Preliminary Results From The Freedom Extension Study

Aims: The pivotal FREEDOM study evaluated the effi cacy and safety of 3 years' denosumab treatment in women with postmenopausal osteoporosis (PMO).1 Since osteoporosis is a chronic condition requiring long-term therapy, FREEDOM was extended to further elucidate the safety and effi cacy of long-term denosumab administration. We present data from the fi rst 2 years of this extension, representing up to 5 years' continuous exposure to denosumab.Methods: Patients who completed FREEDOM were eligible for the extension. Women continued to receive (long-term group), or started after 3 years' placebo (cross-over group), denosumab 60 mg sc every 6 months and daily calcium and vitamin D. These data refl ect 5 years' (long-term) or 2 years' (cross-over) continuous denosumab treatment. Effi cacy measures include changes in BMD from extension study baseline and bone turnover markers (BTM). P-values are descriptive.Results: Of the 83.0% of subjects who completed FREEDOM, 70.2% (N = 4550) agreed to participate in the extension (long-term: 2343; cross-over: 2207). In the long-term group, there were further signifi cant gains (P < 0.0001) in BMD in years 4 and 5: 1.9% and 1.7% at the lumbar spine to a total of 13.7% from FREEDOM baseline and 0.7% and 0.6% at the total hip to a total of 7.0%. During their fi rst 2 years' denosumab treatment, women in the cross-over group had signifi cant improvements in lumbar spine (7.9%) and total hip BMD (4.1%) (P < 0.0001). Serum C-telopeptide (CTX) was rapidly reduced following denosumab dosing in both groups, with the characteristic attenuation of CTX reduction observed at the end of the dosing interval. A low incidence of new vertebral and nonvertebral fractures was reported for both groups. The denosumab safety profi le did not change over time.Conclusions: Denosumab treatment for up to 5 years in women with PMO remains well tolerated, maintains reduction of BTMs and continues to significantly increase BMD.Reference1. Cummings. NEJM 2009;361:756.

Exploration of the contribution of isotope ratio mass spectrometry to the investigation of explosives: A study of black powders and ammonium nitrate fertilisers

The increasing number of bomb attacks involving improvised explosive devices, as well as the nature of the explosives, give rise to concern among safety and law enforcement agencies. The substances used in explosive charges are often everyday products diverted from their primary licit applications. Thus, reducing or limiting their accessibility for prevention purposes is difficult. Ammonium nitrate, employed in agriculture as a fertiliser, is used worldwide in small and large homemade bombs. Black powder, dedicated to hunting and shooting sports, is used illegally as a filling in pipe bombs causing extensive damage. If the main developments of instrumental techniques in explosive analysis have been constantly pushing the limits of detection, their actual contribution to the investigation of explosives in terms of source discrimination is limited. Forensic science has seen the emergence of a new technology, isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS), that shows promising results. Its very first application in forensic science dates back to 1979. Liu et al. analysed cannabis plants coming from different countries [Liu et al. 1979]. This preliminary study highlighted its potential to discriminate specimens coming from different sources. Thirty years later, the keen interest in this new technology has given rise to a flourishing number of publications in forensic science. The countless applications of IRMS to a wide range of materials and substances attest to its success and suggest that the technique is ready to be used in forensic science. However, many studies are characterised by a lack of methodology and fundamental data. They have been undertaken in a top-down approach, applying this technique in an exploratory manner on a restricted sampling. This manner of procedure often does not allow the researcher to answer a number of questions, such as: do the specimens come from the same source, what do we mean by source or what is the inherent variability of a substance? The production of positive results has prevailed at the expense of forensic fundamentals. This research focused on the evaluation of the contribution of the information provided by isotopic analysis to the investigation of explosives. More specifically, this evaluation was based on a sampling of black powders and ammonium nitrate fertilisers coming from known sources. Not only has the methodology developed in this work enabled us to highlight crucial elements inherent to the methods themselves, but also to evaluate both the longitudinal and transversal variabilities of the information. First, the study of the variability of the profile over time was undertaken. Secondly, the variability of black powders and ammonium nitrate fertilisers within the same source and between different sources was evaluated. The contribution of this information to the investigation of explosives was then evaluated and discussed. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Le nombre croissant d'attentats à la bombe impliquant des engins explosifs artisanaux, ainsi que la nature des charges explosives, constituent une préoccupation majeure pour les autorités d'application de la loi et les organismes de sécurité. Les substances utilisées dans les charges explosives sont souvent des produits du quotidien, détournés de leurs applications licites. Par conséquent, réduire ou limiter l'accessibilité de ces produits dans un but de prévention est difficile. Le nitrate d'ammonium, employé dans l'agriculture comme engrais, est utilisé dans des petits et grands engins explosifs artisanaux. La poudre noire, initialement dédiée à la chasse et au tir sportif, est fréquemment utilisée comme charge explosive dans les pipe bombs, qui causent des dommages importants. Si les développements des techniques d'analyse des explosifs n'ont cessé de repousser les limites de détection, leur contribution réelle à l'investigation des explosifs est limitée en termes de discrimination de sources. Une nouvelle technologie qui donne des résultats prometteurs a fait son apparition en science forensique: la spectrométrie de masse à rapport isotopique (IRMS). Sa première application en science forensique remonte à 1979. Liu et al. ont analysé des plants de cannabis provenant de différents pays [Liu et al. 1979]. Cette étude préliminaire, basée sur quelques analyses, a mis en évidence le potentiel de l'IRMS à discriminer des spécimens provenant de sources différentes. Trente ans plus tard, l'intérêt marqué pour cette nouvelle technologie en science forensique se traduit par un nombre florissant de publications. Les innombrables applications de l'IRMS à une large gamme de matériaux et de substances attestent de son succès et suggèrent que la technique est prête à être utilisée en science forensique. Cependant, de nombreuses études sont caractérisées par un manque de méthodologie et de données fondamentales. Elles ont été menées sans définir les hypothèses de recherche et en appliquant cette technique de façon exploratoire sur un échantillonnage restreint. Cette manière de procéder ne permet souvent pas au chercheur de répondre à un certain nombre de questions, tels que: est-ce que deux spécimens proviennent de la même source, qu'entend-on par source ou encore quelle est l'intravariabilité d'une substance? La production de résultats positifs a prévalu au détriment des fondamentaux de science forensique. Cette recherche s'est attachée à évaluer la contribution réelle de l'information isotopique dans les investigations en matière d'explosifs. Plus particulièrement, cette évaluation s'est basée sur un échantillonnage constitué de poudres noires et d'engrais à base de nitrate d'ammonium provenant de sources connues. La méthodologie développée dans ce travail a permis non seulement de mettre en évidence des éléments cruciaux relatifs à la méthode d'analyse elle-même, mais également d'évaluer la variabilité de l'information isotopique d'un point de vue longitudinal et transversal. Dans un premier temps, l'évolution du profil en fonction du temps a été étudiée. Dans un second temps, la variabilité du profil des poudres noires et des engrais à base de nitrate d'ammonium au sein d'une même source et entre différentes sources a été évaluée. La contribution de cette information dans le cadre des investigations d'explosifs a ensuite été discutée et évaluée.

A Study of the Epidemiology of AIDS in Ireland and an Evaluation of an AIDS Education Programme in Second-level Schools

Second-level school students have been identified by the Minister for health as a priority group for education on AIDS. An education programme was accordingly initiated in 1988 in Community Care Area 1 in South county Dublin. This report evaluates this education intervention by means of pre- and post- intervention questionnaires. The questionnaire examined knowledge and attitudes of students relevant to AIDS. The results showed that the level of knowledge of students living in this area was high prior to intervention. The education programme succeeded in improving some aspects of knowledge and also influenced some attitudes of the students. A study of the epidemiology of Aids in Ireland reveals that the epidemic is at a relatively early stage with a consequent rapid doubling time of 9-10 months. In comparison with most developed countries Ireland has a high proportion of AIDS cases occurring among intravenous drug abusers and directly related to this a high number of HIV infected children. Examination of the literature reveals that behaviour change has occurred most noticeably among the homosexual/bisexual risk group. There is some evidence that the comprehensive programmes can achieve change in the behaviour of intravenous drug abusers. There are very few reports linking behaviour change among adolescents and young adults to education programmes. Much of the available literature relates to changes in knowledge and attitudes. International recommendations on the nature of the ideal health education intervention on AIDS are reviewed. The importance of a comprehensive health education programme which incorporates AIDS education and which commences early in youth is noted. The role of the community physician in relation to education programmes and other aspects of monitoring and management of the AIDS epidemic is discussed.This resource was contributed by The National Documentation Centre on Drug Use.

Effectiveness of brief alcohol interventions in primary care populations.

Excessive drinking contributes significantly to social problems, physical and psychological illness, injury and death. Hidden effects include increased levels of violence, accidents and suicide. Most alcohol-related harm is caused by excessive drinkers whose consumption exceeds recommended drinking levels, not the drinkers with severe alcohol dependency problems. One way to reduce consumption levels in a community may be to provide a brief intervention in primary care over one to four sessions. This is provided by healthcare workers such as general physicians, nurses or psychologists. In general practice, patients are routinely asked about alcohol consumption during registration, general health checks and as part of health screening (using a questionnaire). They tend not to be seeking help for alcohol problems when presenting. The intervention they are offered includes feedback on alcohol use and harms, identification of high risk situations for drinking and coping strategies, increased motivation and the development of a personal plan to reduce drinking. It takes place within the time-frame of a standard consultation, 5 to 15 minutes for a general physician, longer for a nurse.A total of 29 controlled trials from various countries were identified, in general practice (24 trials) or an emergency setting (five trials). Participants drank an average of 306 grams of alcohol (over 30 standard drinks) per week on entry to the trial. Over 7000 participants with a mean age of 43 years were randomised to receive a brief intervention or a control intervention, including assessment only. After one year or more, people who received the brief intervention drank less alcohol than people in the control group (average difference 38 grams/week, range 23 to 54 grams). For men (some 70% of participants), the benefit of brief intervention was a difference of 57 grams/week, range 25 to 89 grams (six trials). The benefit was not clear for women. The benefits of brief intervention were similar in the normal clinical setting and in research settings with greater resources. Longer counselling had little additional benefit.This resource was contributed by The National Documentation Centre on Drug Use.

Protease inhibitors in hepatitis C: from chronic disease to cure.

The recent publication of two controlled trials on boceprevir and three on telaprevir heralds a new era for hepatitis C therapy. Bocreprevir and telaprevir are protease inhibitors which act directly on the hepatitis C virus to inhibit replication and are referred to as direct acting antiviral agents (DAAâ?Ts). They are the first 2 such agents to be licensed but it is hoped that many more will soon follow. These are very important studies and represent a major advance in treatment for patients with chronic hepatitis C virus infection. To appreciate their significance it is important to be aware of some of the clinical features of hepatitis C virus infection. Firstly, hepatitis C exposure leads to chronic infection in approximately 70% of patients. Over time (years or decades) this may lead to chronic hepatitis, cirrhosis, liver failure and hepatocellular carcinoma. The speed of progression depends on a number of co-factors. Patients who are male, drink alcohol, are overweight, diabetic or co-infected with HIV have more rapid progression to cirrhosis8. In contrast young, non-drinking females progress more slowly... Many patients with hepatitis C attend drug treatment clinics. This group rarely receive anti-viral therapy but represents the bulk of the population at risk for complications of chronic hepatitis C. It has been shown that antiviral treatment in drug treatment centres, linked to methadone treatment, is very effective in ensuring compliance. As the drug treatment infrastructure already exists, widening its remit to include hepatitis C treatment should be cost effective. A recent large study from the United States confirmed that it is possible to provide effective anti-viral therapy for hepatitis C in primary care settings, provided there is appropriate back-up.