896 resultados para Law of Propagation of Uncertainty


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Atmospheric inputs of mineral dust supply iron and other trace metals to the remote ocean and can influence the marine carbon cycle due to iron's role as a potentially limiting micronutrient. Dust generation, transport, and deposition are highly heterogeneous, and there are very few remote marine locations where dust concentrations and chemistry (e.g., iron solubility) are routinely monitored. Here we use aerosol and rainwater samples collected during 10 large-scale research cruises to estimate the atmospheric input of iron, aluminum, and manganese to four broad regions of the Atlantic Ocean over two 3 month periods for the years 2001–2005. We estimate total inputs of these metals to our study regions to be 4.2, 17, and 0.27 Gmol in April–June and 4.9, 14, and 0.19 Gmol in September–November, respectively. Inputs were highest in regions of high rainfall (the intertropical convergence zone and South Atlantic storm track), and rainfall contributed higher proportions of total input to wetter regions. By combining input estimates for total and soluble metals for these time periods, we calculated overall percentage solubilities for each metal that account for the contributions from both wet and dry depositions and the relative contributions from different aerosol types. Calculated solubilities were in the range 2.4%–9.1% for iron, 6.1%–15% for aluminum, and 54%–73% for manganese. We discuss sources of uncertainty in our estimates and compare our results to some recent estimates of atmospheric iron input to the Atlantic.

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Mediterranean demersal fisheries are highly multispecific and many of their target stocks are overexploited. In addition, rocketing fuel costs and low market prices of traditionally high-value species are challenging the viability of fisheries. Here, based on the numeric results of a simulation model, we conclude that this situation can be remedied by reducing both fishing mortality and fishing costs. According to our model results, fishing effort reductions of 48–71% would improve the health of fish stocks while increasing the economic profits of Mallorca islands bottom trawl fishery to as much as 1.9 M€ (146% higher than current profits). If all fish stocks were exploited at their MSY (or below) level, the reduction in fishing effort would have to be of 71% from current values. If equilibrium profits from the fishery were to be maximized (MEY), fishing effort would need to be reduced by 48%. These results must be taken with caution due the many sources of uncertainty of our analysis. The modeling tools used to estimate these values are conditional to the adequate treatment of two sources of uncertainty that are particularly problematic in Mediterranean fisheries: insufficiently known recruitment variability and lack of periodic evaluations of the state of many species. Our results show that fishing effort reductions would produce economic yield gains after a period of transition. Further studies on the benefits of changing the size-selection pattern of fisheries, on better estimation of stock–recruitment relationships and on better quantifications of the contribution of secondary species to these fisheries, are expected to improve the scientific recommendations for Mediterranean demersal fisheries toward sustainability principles.

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This paper explores the social dimensions of an experimental release of carbon dioxide (CO2) carried out in Ardmucknish Bay, Argyll, United Kingdom. The experiment, which aimed to understand detectability and potential effects on the marine environment should there be any leakage from a CO2 storage site, provided a rare opportunity to study the social aspects of a carbon dioxide capture and storage-related event taking place in a lived-in environment. Qualitative research was carried out in the form of observation at public information events about the release, in-depth interviews with key project staff and local stakeholders/community members, and a review of online media coverage of the experiment. Focusing mainly on the observation and interview data, we discuss three key findings: the role of experience and analogues in learning about unfamiliar concepts like CO2 storage; the challenge of addressing questions of uncertainty in public engagement; and the issue of when to commence engagement and how to frame the discussion. We conclude that whilst there are clearly slippages between a small-scale experiment and full-scale CCS, the social research carried out for this project demonstrates that issues of public and stakeholder perception are as relevant for offshore CO2 storage as they are for onshore.

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Human activities within the marine environment give rise to a number of pressures on seabed habitats. Improved understanding of the sensitivity of subtidal sedimentary habitats is required to underpin the management advice provided for Marine Protected Areas, as well as supporting other UK marine monitoring and assessment work. The sensitivity of marine sedimentary habitats to a range of pressures induced by human activities has previously been systematically assessed using approaches based on expert judgement for Defra Project MB0102 (Tillin et al. 2010). This previous work assessed sensitivity at the level of the broadscale habitat and therefore the scores were typically expressed as a range due to underlying variation in the sensitivity of the constituent biotopes. The objective of this project was to reduce the uncertainty around identifying the sensitivity of selected subtidal sedimentary habitats by assessing sensitivity, at a finer scale and incorporating information on the biological assemblage, for 33 Level 5 circalittoral and offshore biotopes taken from the Marine Habitat Classification of Britain and Ireland (Connor et al. 2004). Two Level 6 sub-biotopes were also included in this project as these contain distinctive characterising species that differentiate them from the Level 5 parent biotope. Littoral, infralittoral, reduced and variable salinity sedimentary habitats were excluded from this project as the scope was set for assessment of circalittoral and offshore sedimentary communities. This project consisted of three Phases. • Phase 1 - define ecological groups based on similarities in the sensitivity of characterising species from the Level 5 and two Level 6 biotopes described above. • Phase 2 - produce a literature review of information on the resilience and resistance of characterising species of the ecological groups to pressures associated with activities in the marine environment. • Phase 3 - to produce sensitivity assessment ‘proformas’ based on the findings of Phase 2 for each ecological group. This report outlines results of Phase 2. The Tillin et al., (2010) sensitivity assessment methodology was modified to use the best available scientific evidence that could be collated within the project timescale. An extensive literature review was compiled, for peer reviewed and grey literature, to examine current understanding about the effects of pressures from human activities on circalittoral and offshore sedimentary communities in UK continental shelf waters, together with information on factors that contribute to resilience (recovery) of marine species. This review formed the basis of an assessment of the sensitivity of the 16 ecological groups identified in Phase 1 of the project (Tillin & Tyler-Walters 2014). As a result: • the state of knowledge on the effects of each pressure on circalittoral and offshore benthos was reviewed; • the resistance, resilience and, hence, sensitivity of sixteen ecological groups, representing 96 characteristic species, were assessed for eight separate pressures; • each assessment was accompanied by a detailed review of the relevant evidence; Assessing the sensitivity of subtidal sedimentary habitats to pressures associated with human activities • knowledge gaps and sources of uncertainty were identified for each group; • each assessment was accompanied by an assessment of the quality of the evidence, its applicability to the assessment and the degree of concordance (agreement) between the evidence, to highlight sources of uncertainty as an assessment of the overall confidence in the sensitivity assessment, and finally • limitations in the methodology and the application of sensitivity assessments were outlined. This process demonstrated that the ecological groups identified in Phase 1 (Tillin & Tyler-Walters 2014) were viable groups for sensitivity assessment, and could be used to represent the 33 circalittoral and offshore sediments biotopes identified at the beginning of the project. The results of the sensitivity assessments show: • the majority of species and hence ecological groups in sedimentary habitats are sensitive to physical change, especially loss of habitat and sediment extraction, and change in sediment type; • most sedimentary species are sensitive to physical damage, e.g. abrasion and penetration, although deep burrowing species (e.g. the Dublin Bay prawn - Nephrops norvegicus and the sea cucumber - Neopentadactyla mixta) are able to avoid damaging effects to varying degrees, depending on the depth of penetration and time of year; • changes in hydrography (wave climate, tidal streams and currents) can significantly affect sedimentary communities, depending on whether they are dominated by deposit, infaunal feeders or suspension feeders, and dependant on the nature of the sediment, which is itself modified by hydrography and depth; • sedentary species and ecological groups that dominate the top-layer of the sediment (either shallow burrowing or epifaunal) remain the most sensitive to physical damage; • mobile species (e.g. interstitial and burrowing amphipods, and perhaps cumaceans) are the least sensitive to physical change or damage, and hydrological change as they are already adapted to unstable, mobile substrata; • sensitivity to changes in organic enrichment and hence oxygen levels, is variable between species and ecological groups, depending on the exact habitat preferences of the species in question, although most species have at least a medium sensitivity to acute deoxygenation; • there is considerable evidence on the effects of bottom-contact fishing practices and aggregate dredging on sedimentary communities, although not all evidence is directly applicable to every ecological group; • there is lack of detailed information on the physiological tolerances (e.g. to oxygenation, salinity, and temperature), habitat preferences, life history and population dynamics of many species, so that inferences has been made from related species, families, or even the same phylum; • there was inadequate evidence to assess the effects of non-indigenous species on most ecological groups, and Assessing the sensitivity of subtidal sedimentary habitats to pressures associated with human activities • there was inadequate evidence to assess the effects of electromagnetic fields and litter on any ecological group. The resultant report provides an up-to-date review of current knowledge about the effects of pressures resulting from human activities of circalittoral and offshore sedimentary communities. It provides an evidence base to facilitate and support the provision of management advice for Marine Protected Areas, development of UK marine monitoring and assessment, and conservation advice to offshore marine industries. However, such a review will require at least annual updates to take advantage of new evidence and new research as it becomes available. Also further work is required to test how ecological group assessments are best combined in practice to advise on the sensitivity of a range of sedimentary biotopes, including the 33 that were originally examined.

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Mediterranean demersal fisheries are highly multispecific and many of their target stocks are overexploited. In addition, rocketing fuel costs and low market prices of traditionally high-value species are challenging the viability of fisheries. Here, based on the numeric results of a simulation model, we conclude that this situation can be remedied by reducing both fishing mortality and fishing costs. According to our model results, fishing effort reductions of 48-71% would improve the health of fish stocks while increasing the economic profits of Mallorca islands bottom trawl fishery to as much as 1.9 M(sic) (146% higher than current profits). If all fish stocks were exploited at their MSY (or below) level, the reduction in fishing effort would have to be of 71% from current values. If equilibrium profits from the fishery were to be maximized (MEY), fishing effort would need to be reduced by 48%. These results must be taken with caution due the many sources of uncertainty of our analysis. The modeling tools used to estimate these values are conditional to the adequate treatment of two sources of uncertainty that are particularly problematic in Mediterranean fisheries: insufficiently known recruitment variability and lack of periodic evaluations of the state of many species. Our results show that fishing effort reductions would produce economic yield gains after a period of transition. Further studies on the benefits of changing the size-selection pattern of fisheries, on better estimation of stock recruitment relationships and on better quantifications of the contribution of secondary species to these fisheries, are expected to improve the scientific recommendations for Mediterranean demersal fisheries toward sustainability principles.

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This paper explores the law of accidental mixtures of goods. It traces the development of the English rules on mixture from the seminal nineteenth century case of Spence v Union Marine Insurance Co to the present day, and compares their responses to those given by the Roman law, which always has been claimed as an influence on our jurisprudence in this area. It is argued that the different answers given by English and Roman law to essentially the same problems of title result from the differing bases of these legal systems. Roman a priori theory is contrasted with the more practical reasoning of the common law, and while both sets of rules are judged to be coherent on their own terms, it is suggested that the difference between them is reflective of a more general philosophical disagreement about the proper functioning of a legal system, and the relative importance of theoretical and pragmatic considerations.

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We describe the results of a ground-based observational "snapshot" study of Jupiter-family comets in the heliocentric range 2.29 AU less than or equal to R-h less than or equal to 5.72 AU. Results are presented based on observations from the 1m JKT on the island of La Palma. A total of 25 comets were targeted with 15 being positively detected. Broad-band VRI photometry was performed to determine dimensions, colour indices, and dust production rates in terms of the "A frho" formalism. The results for selected comets are compared with previous investigations. Ensemble properties of the Jupiter- family population have been investigated by combining the results presented here with those of Lowry et al. (1999), and Lowry & Fitzsimmons (2001). We find that the cumulative size distribution of the Jupiter-family comets can be described by a power law of the form; Sigma(> r) proportional to r(-1.6+/- 0.1). This size distribution is considerably shallower than that found for the observed Edgeworth-Kuiper belt objects, which may reflect either an intrinsic difference at small km- sizes in the belt, or the various processes affecting the nuclei of comets as their orbits evolve from the Edgeworth- Kuiper belt to the inner Solar system. Also, there would appear to be no correlation between nuclear absolute magnitude and perihelion distance. Finally, for the sample of active comets, there is a distinct correlation between absolute R band magnitude and perihelion distance, which can be explained by either a discovery bias towards brighter comets or in terms of "rubble" mantle formation.

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The growth of US credit unions during the 1990s is investigated empirically, using univariate and multivariate cross sectional and panel estimation techniques. Univariate tests of the law of proportionate effect suggest that in general large credit unions grew faster than their smaller counterparts. On average credit unions with above-average growth in one period tended to experience below-average growth in the next. Smaller credit unions tended to have more variable growth than large ones. While credit unions share a common co-operative philosophy, they differ in terms of age profile, scope for membership growth, charter type and financial structure and performance. In estimations of a multivariate growth model, most of these characteristics are found to have a significant influence on the size-growth relationship. While large state chartered credit unions grew faster than their smaller counterparts, the reverse was true for federally chartered credit unions. In general, if larger credit unions grew faster than smaller ones, they tended to do so for specific reasons: because their charters were less restrictive, because they were more efficient, or because they had a financial structure that was more conducive to growth. Therefore credit union growth was not `random', but highly systematic.

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We present a numerical and theoretical study of intense-field single-electron ionization of helium at 390 nm and 780 nm. Accurate ionization rates (over an intensity range of (0.175-34) X10^14 W/ cm^2 at 390 nm, and (0.275 - 14.4) X 10^14 W /cm^2 at 780 nm) are obtained from full-dimensionality integrations of the time-dependent helium-laser Schroedinger equation. We show that the power law of lowest order perturbation theory, modified with a ponderomotive-shifted ionization potential, is capable of modelling the ionization rates over an intensity range that extends up to two orders of magnitude higher than that applicable to perturbation theory alone. Writing the modified perturbation theory in terms of scaled wavelength and intensity variables, we obtain to first approximation a single ionization law for both the 390 nm and 780 nm cases. To model the data in the high intensity limit as well as in the low, a new function is introduced for the rate. This function has, in part, a resemblance to that derived from tunnelling theory but, importantly, retains the correct frequency-dependence and scaling behaviour derived from the perturbative-like models at lower intensities. Comparison with the predictions of classical ADK tunnelling theory confirms that ADK performs poorly in the frequency and intensity domain treated here.

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The Law of 17 July 1965 on the structure of university faculties and their teaching staff placed the figure of the university senior lecturer on stage. During the sixties, the gestation process, adoption and subsequent integration of the new figure in the academic pyramid did not escape controversy, leading to a complex phenomenon to which, however, non comprehensive studies have been devoted to reveal: how, when, why and under which conditions this teacher appeared in the Spanish University of Franco’s regime. This paper aims to provide an overview of the process of materialization of the senior lecturer, the legislative framework that definitely established this new educational category and the provisions that were in charge of regulating the processes to get tenure. Also, the first approved aggregate endowments and their distribution among universities, colleges and studies will be discussed. Finally, it was a first approach to the possible motivations that led to the creation of this new educational category in a university afflicted by serious problems waiting for a solution that had been delayed sine die. Asimismo, se analizarán las primeras dotaciones de agregados aprobadas y la distribución de las mismas por universidades, facultades y estudios. Para terminar, se realiza un primer acercamiento a las posibles motivaciones que condujeron a la creación de esta nueva figura docente en una universidad aquejada de graves problemas que esperaban a una solución que venía demorándose sine die.

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A detailed study is presented of the decaying solar-active region NOAA 10103 observed with the Coronal Diagnostic Spectrometer (CDS), the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) and the Extreme-ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (EIT) onboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO). Electron-density maps formed using Si x (356.03 angstrom/347.41 angstrom) show that the density varies from similar to 10(10) cm(-3) in the active-region core to similar to 7 x 108 cm-3 at the region boundaries. Over the 5 d of observations, the average electron density fell by similar to 30 per cent. Temperature maps formed using Fe XVI (335.41 angstrom)/Fe XIV (334.18 angstrom) show electron temperatures of similar to 2.34 x 10(6) K in the active-region core and similar to 2.10 x 10(6) K at the region boundaries. Similarly to the electron density, there was a small decrease in the average electron temperature over the 5-d period. The radiative, conductive and mass-flow losses were calculated and used to determine the resultant heating rate (P-H). Radiative losses were found to dominate the active-region cooling process. As the region decayed, the heating rate decreased by almost a factor of 5 between the first and last day of observations. The heating rate was then compared to the total unsigned magnetic flux (Phi(tot) = integral dA vertical bar B-z vertical bar), yielding a power law of the form P-H similar to Phi(0.81 +/- 0.32)(tot) This result suggests that waves rather than nanoflares may be the dominant heating mechanism in this active region.

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Domestic violence is an issue that affects vast numbers of women throughout the world. It seems to constitute a clear violation of at least three articles of the European Convention on Human Rights, however it has only been recognised as being a human rights issue relatively recently. Indeed, until 2007 domestic violence had not been directly addressed by the European Court of Human Rights. However, the Court has now addressed the issue in a series of recent cases. This paper discusses what positive obligations states parties to the Convention now have in relation to the issue of domestic violence. It proceeds to discuss the gaps in the Court’s jurisprudence in this area at present and how the case law of the Court may develop in the future.

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The increasing emphasis on academic entrepreneurship, technology transfer and research commercialisation within UK universities is predicated on basic research being developed by academics into commercial entities such as university spin-off companies or licensing arrangements. However, this process is fraught with challenges and risks, given the degree of uncertainty regarding future returns. In an attempt to minimise such risks, the Proof-of-Concept (PoC) process has been developed within University Science Park Incubators (USIs) to test the technological, business and market potential of embryonic technology. The key or the pivotal stakeholder within the PoC is the Principal Investigator (PI), who is usually the lead academic responsible for the embryonic technology. Within the current literature, there appears to be a lack of research pertaining to the role of the PI in the PoC process. Moreover, Absorptive Capacity (ACAP) has emerged within the literature as a theoretical framework or lens for exploring the development and application of new knowledge and technology, where the USI is the organisation considered in the current study. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to explore the role and influence of the PI in the PoC process within a USI setting using an ACAP perspective. The research involved a multiple case analysis of PoC applications within a UK university USI. The results demonstrate the role of the PI in developing practices and routines within the PoC process. These practices and processes were initially tacit and informal in nature but became more explicit and formal over time so that knowledge was retained within the USI after the PIs had completed the PoC process. © 2010 The Authors. R&D Management © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

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Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore the consumption of a personal community and its role in the everyday life of the home-confined consumer. Design/methodology/approach – Using a Radical Constructivist approach, three cases of home confinement were explored in depth over a period of two years. Ongoing “conversations” captured the consumption experiences with personal communities. Findings – In relation to the home-confined context, the ability to attain individuality, empowerment and creativity are all heightened as a result of personal community construction. An underlying concern for home-confined consumers is their removal from independent living to institutionalized living, and, as a result the need to construct, manage and maintain a personal community is of major concern. Research limitations/implications – Although the study addresses a home-confined context, it is nevertheless reflective of concerns that are significant to all consumers, namely the attainment of individuality and independence irrespective of marginalization or not. Practical implications – The importance of a personal community in terms of both self-empowerment and self-identity with respect to marginalized groups and vulnerable individuals should not be underestimated. The supporting role of a personal community provides, in times of uncertainty, a framework to maintain self-identity and independence. Originality/value – This paper provides a better understanding of the role of a personal community in the consumption experiences of those consumers marginalized and vulnerable as a consequence of context. Home-confined consumers are “invisible” in the marketplace and the personal community is a means of redressing this imbalance by empowering such individuals.

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A novel method of obtaining high-quality Raman spectra of luminescent samples was tested using cyclohexane solutions which had been treated with a fluorescent dye. The method involves removing the fixed pattern irregularity found in the spectra taken with CCD detectors by subtracting spectra taken at several different, closely spaced spectrometer positions. It is conceptually similar to SERDS (shifted excitation Raman difference spectroscopy) but has the distinct experimental advantage that it does not require a tunable laser source. The subtracted spectra obtained as the raw data are converted into a more recognisable and conventional form by iterative fitting of appropriate double Lorentzian functions whose peak parameters are then used to 'reconstruct' a conventional representation of the spectrum. Importantly, it is shown that the degree of uncertainty in the resultant 'reconstructed' spectra can be gauged reliably by comparing reconstructed spectra obtained at two different spectrometer shifts (delta and 2 delta), The method was illustrated and validated using a solvent (cyclohexane) the spectrum of which is well known and which contains both regions with complex overlapping bands and regions with isolated bands, Possible sources of error are discussed and it is shown that, provided the degree of uncertainty in the data is correctly characterised, it is completely valid to draw conclusions about the spectra of the sample on the basis of the reconstructed data. The acronym SSRS (subtracted shifted Raman spectroscopy; pronounced scissors) is proposed for this method, to distinguish it from the SERDS technique.